It could be a pressure cooker of a summer for the US economy, and not because of the warmer weather. Tariffs from the Trump administration don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, forcing businesses to raise prices on consumers and delay key projects. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stagflation fears. Economic data has also begun to weaken, with the latest evidence being the employment readings from the last three months. Yahoo Finance executive editor ...

September. Kelly. >> All right.So still looking maybe for them to lower rates in a few more months. Steve stay right there as we bring in Paul McCulley Pimco's former chief economist Paul always like to speak with you on the eve of these decisions. And so far, the preponderance of evidence has kind of been to the deflationary side of the tariff case.I mean, even what you see, apparel prices slightly lower. There's not a lot in any of the reports up until now, that point towards a lot of price hikes througho ...

Let's turn now to today's market action. Stocks closing near session lows. Only two Dow stocks and one sector energy again closing higher with the broadbased selling.Joining me now is Bob Elliot, CEO and CIO at Unlimited Funds and Krishna Guha, Everore ISI vice chairman. Guys, welcome. Bob, oil moved dramatically today off a pretty low base.Stocks moved modestly. I guess this is more about what are we set up for given the run that stocks have been on. We're pretty near all-time highs on the S&P.Yeah, I thin ...

one year inflation drops from 66 down to 51. That's a pretty big drop. Joining us this morning, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian is with us Mohamed.It's a treat for us to be able to get your take on on the news of the day. I did read this morning that you feel that this this news out of the Middle East is net net maybe Stagflationary does that explain some of the action in treasuries. >> It is Stagflationary. The question is how stagflationary is it.And that's a function of what you just talk ...

Well, Torson, let's focus on the US side of things and then we can get to a more global dimension. Let's focus on the US with the tariffs in mind. Is it too early to expect those tariffs to show up in the data this morning.No, it's not. What really is the key issue here is that there is indeed going to be some upside pressure on inflation. And what's most critical about this is that it's all about the behavior among companies.How do they respond to tariffs. Do they pass on 100%. Will they pass on 50%. Or wi ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has cut its profit forecast for the year due to higher costs from US tariffs and weak demand for its new products, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company now expects annual profit between $14.58 and $14.78 per share, down from previous expectations of $14.95 to $15.15 [6]. - Lululemon's revenue forecast for the second quarter is between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, which aligns with market expectations [8]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company is facing lower store traffic in the Americas, attributed to economic uncertainty, inflation, lower consumer confidence, and changes in discretionary spending [1][3]. - Competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori are gaining traction, making it difficult for Lululemon to boost sales despite new product offerings [3][8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Lululemon plans to implement modest price increases on a small portion of its product assortment and will negotiate with vendors to cut costs [4]. - In 2024, 40% of Lululemon's products were manufactured in Vietnam, and 28% of its fabrics were sourced from mainland China, indicating a diversification strategy in sourcing [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that his retirement is "several years away," emphasizing his commitment to the bank and its future leadership planning [1][3]. Leadership and Succession - Dimon has been in his role for nearly two decades, and there has been increased scrutiny regarding succession planning as he approaches retirement age [1][5]. - Potential successors include Marianne Lake, Doug Petno, Troy Rohrbaugh, and Mary Erdoes, with Dimon indicating he may remain involved as chairman or executive chairman for a couple more years [3][10]. - Dimon previously hinted that his succession timeline was not as immediate as previously thought, which negatively impacted the bank's stock price [5]. Economic and Defense Views - Dimon has voiced strong opinions on national security, advocating for the U.S. to prioritize defense spending over cryptocurrency investments [4]. - He has been consulted by both Democratic and Republican administrations on economic policies, indicating his influence in political and economic discussions [8]. Company Developments - JPMorgan is investing in a new $3 billion headquarters in Manhattan, which reflects the bank's commitment to its future and operational strategy [12]. - Dimon is pushing for a return to in-office work, believing that remote work policies have led to decreased productivity [12].

Group 1 - KKR's Co-CEO Scott Nuttall participated in the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, discussing the current economic landscape and inflation concerns [1][2]. - The company acknowledges the recent volatility in the market, highlighting concerns about persistent inflation, prolonged high interest rates, and potential economic slowdown or stagflation [4]. - KKR's internal view suggests that inflation rates are expected to remain elevated for a longer period, which aligns with the company's historical perspective over its 49 years of operation [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has a long-term view on inflation and interest rates, expecting them to remain higher for longer, which aligns with historical trends [4][5][9] - The company has $116 billion of dry powder available for investment, indicating strong capital reserves for future opportunities [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private equity portfolio is marked at over 60% at more than 1.5 times the cost, while public names are marked at an average of four times the cost, reflecting strong performance [18][19] - The company has been actively exiting investments, including sales in Japan and infrastructure, contributing to a mature portfolio [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - More than 70% of the company's deployment in infrastructure over the last five years has been outside the United States, showcasing a global investment strategy [34] - The company has seen a shift in investor sentiment, with a more balanced approach to global allocations, particularly towards Europe and Asia [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building portfolios that can navigate different economic cycles, emphasizing long-term investments [15][16] - Strategic holdings have been introduced to capture lower-risk, attractive reward investments, diversifying the company's offerings [23][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the realization outlook, citing a strong pipeline of realizations and a disciplined investment approach [15][21] - The company does not foresee significant stress in its portfolios despite macroeconomic concerns, indicating confidence in its investment strategy [12][14] Other Important Information - The company is expanding its product offerings for high-net-worth individuals through partnerships, aiming to capture a larger share of the market [45][49] - The insurance segment is expected to see growth in earnings as the business model transitions and third-party capital is raised [92][93] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view on inflation and economic growth? - The company expects inflation and interest rates to remain higher for longer, which is consistent with historical trends [4][5] Question: How is the company managing its portfolio amidst macroeconomic concerns? - The company has not seen significant stress in its portfolios and feels confident due to its portfolio construction and historical experience with economic cycles [12][14] Question: What is the outlook for the company's strategic holdings? - The strategic holdings segment is designed to capture lower-risk investments with attractive returns, and the company is optimistic about its growth potential [23][25] Question: How is the company addressing client demand for alternative products? - The company is seeing significant adoption of its alternative products and is expanding its offerings to cater to high-net-worth individuals [38][45] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding direct lending and asset-based finance? - The company is actively involved in both direct lending and asset-based finance, with a focus on scaling third-party business alongside its own insurance growth [76][80]