Hello and welcome to Morning Brief Market Sunrise. I'm Raman Karamali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Wednesday 17th September.Coming up on the show, the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates later today. The big question, how many more cuts for 2025. China has told tech firms to stop buying Nvidia's AI chips.That's according to the FT. And the UK and US sign a 42 billion dollar tech pact to mark President Trump's state visit. So grab your coffee and let's own the morning.The Fed is o ...

Group 1: Wearables and IPOs - Meta Platforms (META) is set to unveil new smart glasses named "Celeste" with a built-in display at a retail price of $800 [1] - StubHub (STUB) is going public today after several delays, pricing its shares amid a recovering IPO market in 2025 [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Investments - GSK (GSK) announced a $30 billion investment in R&D and manufacturing in the United States [2] - Eli Lilly (LLY) revealed plans for a new $5 billion production plant in Virginia [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Danielle DiMartino Booth discussed significant changes at the Federal Reserve, highlighting the impact of easy credit on consumer spending [2] - The conversation noted the reality of stagflation at the company level, with a margin squeeze being observed [2] Group 4: Retail and Media Developments - Kroger (KR) is reintroducing paper coupons as part of its retail strategy [3] - Paramount Skydance's bid for Warner Bros. (WBD) may take longer than expected [3] - Apollo Global (APO) is exploring the sale of AOL, an internet pioneer [4] Group 5: Technology and Transportation - Baidu (BIDU) shares surged as investors anticipate growth in AI [4] - Waymo is set to test robotaxis at San Francisco International Airport [5] Group 6: Market Updates - In Asia, Japan's market decreased by 0.3%, while Hong Kong increased by 1.8% [6] - In Europe, London saw a slight increase of 0.2%, while Paris decreased by 0.1% [6] - Futures indicate a slight increase in Dow by 0.1%, with S&P flat and Nasdaq down by 0.1% [6]

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Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, highlighting a surprising increase in short positions despite expectations of a new interest rate cut cycle [2][7][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of the last report, net long positions in U.S. precious metal futures, except for palladium and copper, have decreased across the board, which was unexpected given the anticipated interest rate cuts [2][7]. - The market now estimates an 85% chance of a rate cut in October, up from 79%, and a 75% chance in December, indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year [2][26]. - The article notes that the gold price has increased by 38.1% year-to-date, while fund long positions have only increased by 1.7% during the same period, suggesting limited bullish sentiment [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Position Changes - The net long position for COMEX gold fell by 1.5% to 518 tons, marking the 101st consecutive week of net long positions, but significantly lower than the historical peak of 908 tons in September 2019 [7][8]. - In silver, net long positions dropped from 6,380 tons to 5,874 tons, with a 41.5% increase in silver prices year-to-date [8][10]. - Platinum funds saw a significant drop in long positions by 17%, while palladium remains in a net short position for 139 weeks, indicating a bearish outlook for this metal [8][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The article highlights the potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, suggesting that if inflation pressures rise again, the Federal Reserve may face challenges in its monetary policy [26][28]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has dropped significantly, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold itself, which may signal caution for investors [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-silver ratio as a market sentiment indicator, which currently stands at 86.38, reflecting a slight decline [22].

Federal Reserve Independence - Steven Myron's confirmation as Federal Reserve Governor raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, as he is perceived to be aligned with President Trump's interests [1][2][5] - The undermining of Fed independence could lead to increased costs for consumers, affecting credit card rates, mortgages, and loans [3][4][8] - The current economic situation, characterized by rising inflation and a weakening job market, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [9][10][12] Economic Policy and Interest Rates - President Trump is attempting to fill the Fed with members who favor lower interest rates, which may not align with sound economic policy [5][7] - The Fed is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, but this decision is complicated by the chaotic economic environment created by Trump's policies [8][10] - The Fed's ability to manage inflation and unemployment is constrained by the current political climate, leading to concerns about stagflation [10][11][13] Transparency and Investor Confidence - Proposed changes to quarterly earnings reports, suggested by President Trump, could undermine transparency for investors, as less frequent reporting may hide financial performance [18][19][20] - The focus on reducing the visibility of economic data is seen as a tactic to manage perceptions rather than address underlying economic issues [20][21] Market Competition - Concerns are raised about the concentration of power in the media industry, particularly with Paramount Sky Dance's bid for Warner Brothers, which could harm competition and consumer choice [22][23] - Market concentration is linked to higher prices, reduced customer service, and diminished innovation, emphasizing the need for competitive markets to drive economic benefits [23]

Now the OTHER nice thing.Multiple Prediction Markets = Multiple Odds && Different Words.Lets take a look at @KalshiA LOT of different words here, and more of singular word references vs the total counts we saw on PolymarketThis makes it for a little bit different type of approach.Using the same model, based on prior speeches.We have some serious outliers.Stagflation | NO | 80c and under- the likelihood of him willingly using the word is slim, historically he has stayed away from this word entirely, and has ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Manager Behavior - Wall Street fund managers are increasing their equity allocations, reaching a seven-month high, while cash balances remain steady at 3.9% [1] - 28% of fund managers are overweight on global equities, indicating bullish sentiment but not yet at euphoric levels [2] - Nearly half of fund managers expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least four times in the next 12 months, aligning with market expectations of five to six cuts [4] Group 2: Market Performance and Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 closed at a record high, and the Nasdaq has achieved six consecutive all-time highs, driven by resilient earnings and the AI investment cycle [3] - 77% of fund managers anticipate a "stagflationary" environment, characterized by sluggish growth, persistent inflation, and higher unemployment [5] - Consumer sentiment has declined, with the University of Michigan's September survey indicating the lowest level since May, alongside rising long-term inflation expectations [8] Group 3: Historical Context and Current Trends - The current market situation is reminiscent of past periods where unemployment rose alongside stock prices, as seen in the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1990s [6]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today. First up, markets looking to extend a record run. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again as investors wait on a widely expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve. US stock futures pointing to a higher open, more gains. This after the latest reading on retail sales grew more than expected in August. Sales rising 610 of a percent last month, likely driven by b ...

Before we discuss what the Fed will do, we need to have a discussion about the conflict on interest rates between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Both think interest rates are very important, but they both have very different points of view.For everything else you need to know ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, keep reading for more from three of our top market analysts.But perhaps our uneasy monetary policymakers, their shoulders preemptively bent under the weight of history’s judgment, can take so ...

Stagflation is the Fed's worst nightmare, and it could be on the way (via @opinion) https://t.co/VHrdaheOzj ...