Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The number of job openings in the US in April was higher than expected and the previous value. This week, there is a dense release of US economic data, with a focus on the non - farm payrolls report on Friday. Additionally, attention should be paid to the US Trade Court's ban on Trump's tariffs and the progress of various negotiations. The international gold price should maintain the idea of buying on dips, relying on the strong support at $3000. Today, focus on the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for May [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariffs - The Trump administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. - Sources said that the US put forward a "tough" list of requirements to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. - Sources indicated that the EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". - The Brazilian President stated that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will appeal to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. - The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, with nearly half of the issues having reached a consensus [2] Fed - Logan believes that the focus should be on achieving the 2% inflation target rather than trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. - Bostic still thinks there may be one interest rate cut this year [2] Economic Forecast - The OECD lowered its GDP growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%) [2]

欧盟贸易专员称欧美关税谈判在朝正确方向推进 金十数据6月4日讯，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了 建设性会谈。关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。当地 时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表遗 憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快谈 判进程。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity futures, including indices, bonds, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, price movements, and potential trading opportunities for each category [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Indices**: The indices have stable support below but face significant upward pressure. Affected by ongoing tariff negotiations, they are volatile in the short - term and are expected to remain neutrally oscillating after the volatility subsides. It is recommended to wait and see, with a suggested long - position attempt on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year rate between 1.8% - 1.95%. Short - term treasury bond futures may show a range - bound oscillation. A range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market has returned to rationality, and precious metals have declined. Gold is expected to oscillate, and a double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is advised to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: With a high opening in July's quotes and the market bottoming out and rebounding, it is advisable to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Industrial steel demand and inventory are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider a long - steel and short - raw - material arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is falling from a high level. It is expected to oscillate in the 700 - 745 range [3]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may be further reduced, and coking coal prices are weak. It is recommended to stop the loss on short positions for J2509 and JM2509 [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: With the resumption of production in large factories in Ningxia and the recovery of shipments from Groote Eylandt, it is advisable to short at high prices, with resistance levels at around 5500 for silicon iron and 5900 for manganese silicon [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, and Tin**: Copper has weak driving forces; zinc prices are supported by lower - than - expected supply; nickel is in narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel is weakly operating; and tin prices are continuing to decline. Specific price ranges and trading suggestions are provided for each [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Short - term upward support is provided by North American supply disruptions, but the long - term depends on OPEC production policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider an options straddle strategy [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Ethanol, Styrene, Caustic Soda, PVC, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, and Methanol**: Different products have different market conditions, such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and price trends. Specific trading strategies are recommended for each [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal, Live Hogs, Corn, Oils, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Apples, Jujubes, Peanuts, and Soda Ash**: Market conditions vary among different agricultural products. For example, live hog prices are under pressure after the festival, and sugar supply is expected to be loose overseas. Appropriate trading strategies are provided for each [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass, Rubber, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, and Lithium Carbonate**: Glass market sentiment is weakening; rubber prices are declining; industrial silicon is weakly oscillating; polysilicon futures have fallen significantly; and lithium carbonate is weakly stable. Specific trading suggestions are given for each [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to trade sideways, with potential support from stronger-than-expected domestic stimulus policies and further pressure from worsening trade frictions and economic outlook [2] - Caustic soda is likely to see tight spot supply in June but may peak, and is expected to trend weakly with oscillations in the medium term [3] - Natural rubber prices have limited upside due to insufficient inventory drawdown and lack of positive factors [5] - Urea's supply-demand imbalance remains, with a possible rebound due to rising coal prices, and should be traded within a range [6] - Methanol may rebound with coal price increases, with its 09 contract expected to trade between 2150 - 2300 [8] - Plastic is expected to trade widely sideways in the short term, entering the traditional off-season in June [9] Summary by Product PVC - On June 3, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4745 yuan/ton (-19), with a weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory situation. The long - term demand is dragged by the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. The supply pressure is high in Q3. The current inventory drawdown is okay, and the market is macro - driven. The price is expected to be sideways [2] Caustic Soda - On June 3, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2371 yuan/ton (-85). The current supply has good profits and high operation rates, with some new installations expected. There are concentrated maintenance in June, leading to a short - term output decline. The demand has mixed signals, with potential alumina复产 but weak non - aluminum demand. The spot may be tight in June but is likely to peak, and trend weakly in the medium term [3] Natural Rubber - On June 3, the three major rubber futures traded sideways. The spot price had a limited rebound due to insufficient inventory drawdown and a lack of positive factors. As of June 1, 2025, Qingdao's total inventory decreased by 0.80%. Tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased. Raw material prices and product prices were provided [5] Urea - The urea 09 contract fell 0.96% to close at 1761 yuan/ton. The supply remains high, with an 88.87% operating rate. Agricultural demand is yet to be fully released, and industrial demand has limited support. The inventory is increasing, and it may rebound with coal prices, trading within 1730 - 1850 [6] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.72% to close at 2225 yuan/ton. The supply is relatively abundant, and the cost - profit situation shows a slowdown in coal price decline. The methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate increased, but traditional demand is weak. The inventory is rising, and it may rebound with coal prices, trading within 2150 - 2300 [8] Plastic - On June 3, the plastic main contract fell 0.16% to 6963 yuan/ton. The supply pressure remains despite high maintenance, the demand enters the off - season, and the inventory is neutral. It is expected to trade widely sideways between 6950 - 7350 in the short term [9]

巴西总统：若未能与美就关税达成协议 将采取行动 智通财经6月3日电，巴西总统卢拉当地时间6月3日表示，巴西一直在尝试与美国就关税问题进行谈判， 但若未能达成协议，巴西将采取行动，或诉诸世贸组织，或采取对等措施。卢拉同时表示，他已受邀参 加七国集团（G7）峰会，但尚未确定是否出席。 ...

金十数据整理：6月3日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 关税——①印度-欧盟自贸协定加速推进 近半议题已达成共识。②消息人士：美国在关税谈判中向越 南提出了一份"又长又苛刻"的要求清单。③消息人士：欧盟未收到美国要求在星期三之前提供 "最佳贸 易报价"的信件。④日本央行行长植田和男：目前与美国的多项贸易谈判仍在进行中，市场不确定性依 然较高。⑤印尼高级经济部长：印尼承诺在定于6月在华盛顿举行的第二轮谈判之前，提供针对美国商 品的优惠关税清单。⑥巴西总统卢拉：我们一直在寻求与美国政府就关税问题进行谈判。 6. 美国4月空缺职位意外大增，4月工厂订单月率录得2024年1月以来最大降幅。 2. 全国工商联汽车经销商商会倡议：坚决抵制以"价格战"为主要形式的"内卷式"竞争行为。 3. 商务部等五部门组织开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动，特斯拉Model 3、Model Y车型在列。 4. 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部发言人林剑表示，我没有可以提供的消息。 5. 美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，外交部：坚决反对。 6. 端午假期全社会跨区域人员流动量累计超6.53亿人次，同比增长2.5%。 7. 从6月3日24时起， ...

Report Title - Macro Weekly Report: Overseas Risk-Aversion Sentiment Intensifies, Domestic Weak Recovery Continues [1] Core Views - Overseas, there are signs of partial recovery in the US "soft data", with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising in May and inflation expectations falling from their highs. However, the manufacturing sector remains sluggish due to tariff disruptions, with the May ISM Manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months, weaker than expected, and the import sub-index hitting a 16-year low, while the price sub-index remains high. Overall, the US economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the GDPNow model has revised up its Q2 economic growth forecast to 4.6%. This week, attention is focused on the May non-farm payroll report and the services PMI. Last week, the US dollar index maintained a weak oscillation, and the gold price returned to a high level, reflecting three risks: internal conflicts in the US weakening its sovereign credit, setbacks in the US tariff negotiations with other countries, and renewed conflicts in war-torn countries. In June, attention is on the progress of Trump's tax cut bill in the Senate and the trade court's ruling on tariffs [2]. - Domestically, the manufacturing sector's sentiment improved slightly in May, with both supply and demand improving. The reduction in Sino-US tariffs has led to a marginal recovery in production driven by pre-export activities, and new orders have significantly improved due to external demand. However, price pressures remain, and the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue. In addition, the sentiment in the service and construction sectors remains lower than in previous years, indicating that domestic demand is still the main drag in the second quarter, and more policy support is urgently needed in the context of weak inflation. In June, attention is on the possibility of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [3] Section Summaries Overseas Macro - US May Manufacturing PMI Weakens: The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the "rush to import" may have ended. The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. New orders continued to shrink, external demand was under pressure, costs were high, and employment was weak. The import sub-index hit a 16-year low, suggesting that the peak of "rush to import" may have passed under tariff disruptions. The trade surplus has led the GDPNow to revise up the Q2 economic growth rate to 4.6%. Meanwhile, the final value of the US May Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, slightly lower than the expected 52.3 and the initial value of 52.3, still in the expansion range. The difference between the two may be due to the ISM PMI's high dependence on external demand, supply chains, and large manufacturers, making it more sensitive to policy shocks and external uncertainties [5]. - Consumer Confidence Recovers, Inflation Expectations Fall from Highs: After the easing of tariff negotiations, the US "soft data" has improved. The final value of the US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 52.2, higher than the expected 51.0 and the initial value of 50.8. With the significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs, consumer confidence has recovered, but the absolute level remains at a historical low, indicating that consumers are still highly concerned about the future economy. The final value of the one-year inflation expectation in May was 6.6%, lower than the expected 7.1% and the initial value of 7.3%; the final value of the 5 - 10-year inflation expectation was 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the initial value of 4.6%, ending four months of sharp increases [7]. Domestic Macro - China's May Manufacturing Sentiment Improves as Expected: The May Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 49.0. There were differences among enterprises of different sizes, with large enterprises rising 1.5 to 50.7, entering the expansion range, while medium and small enterprises remained in the contraction range. Both supply and demand improved, with external demand making a prominent contribution. Production rose 0.9 to 50.7, returning to the expansion range; new orders rose 0.6 to 49.8, approaching the boom-bust line; new export orders rose significantly by 2.8 to 47.5, showing obvious marginal improvement. Overall, with the phased easing of Sino-US tariff frictions, enterprises have seized the window period to accelerate production, and the release of export orders has driven the recovery of the production side. Prices were weak, and enterprises actively reduced inventory. The raw material inventory rose to 47.4, and the finished product inventory fell 0.8 to 46.5. In terms of prices, the purchase price of raw materials in April fell 0.1 to 46.9, and the ex-factory price fell 0.1 to 44.7, indicating that the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue [10]. - Construction and Service Sectors Remain Sluggish, Domestic Demand Recovery is Weak: In the non-manufacturing sector, the May Service PMI was 50.2, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.1 but lower than the level of previous years. Driven by the May Day holiday, tourism, travel, and catering consumption were active, and the sentiment in the transportation and accommodation industries rose to the expansion range; high - growth industries such as postal, communication, and the Internet continued to grow steadily. The Construction PMI was 51.0, lower than the previous value of 51.9 and at the lowest level in the same period over the years, with real estate construction remaining sluggish [11]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The performance of equity markets varied. In the A-share market, the Wind All - A Index was at 5074.29, with a weekly decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 2.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.04%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3347.49, with a weekly decline of -0.03%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.13%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index was at 23289.77, with a weekly decline of -1.32%, a monthly increase of 5.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.44%. Overseas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 42270.07, with a weekly increase of 1.60%, a monthly increase of 3.94%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.64% [19]. - Bonds: In the domestic bond market, the 1 - year Treasury yield was 1.46%, with a weekly increase of 1.51 basis points, a monthly increase of 0.08 basis points, and a year - to - date increase of 35.30 basis points. In the overseas bond market, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, with a weekly decline of 11.00 basis points, a monthly increase of 29.00 basis points, and a year - to - date decline of 36.00 basis points [22]. - Commodities: The Nanhua Commodity Index was at 2349.69, with a weekly decline of -1.62%, a monthly decline of -2.40%, and a year - to - date decline of -5.88%. The CRB Commodity Index was at 290.43, with a weekly decline of -2.10%, a monthly increase of 0.57%, and a year - to - date decline of -2.12%. COMEX Gold was at 3313.10, with a weekly decline of -1.57%, a monthly decline of -0.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 25.45% [23]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1953, with a weekly increase of 0.08%, a monthly decline of -0.93%, and a year - to - date decline of -1.42%. The US dollar index was at 99.4393, with a weekly increase of 0.32%, a monthly decline of -0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of -8.34% [26]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report includes data on the congestion index of 100 cities, the subway passenger volume of 23 cities, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 cities, the second - hand housing transaction area of 12 cities, passenger car sales, and the apparent consumption of rebar [28]. - Overseas: The report includes data on the Redbook commercial retail sales and the number of unemployment benefit claims in the US [32]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events for this week, including China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's May CPI annual and monthly rates, the US's May ADP employment data, and the US's May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI [39].

6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has presented a series of "strict" demands to Vietnam in tariff negotiations, aiming to reduce Vietnam's reliance on imported industrial products from other countries [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - The U.S. is pushing for Vietnam to decrease its use of materials and components sourced from other countries [1] - There is a request for Vietnam to more closely monitor its production and supply chains, although specific quantitative targets have not been detailed [1] - This list of demands is part of a framework document prepared by U.S. negotiators and was delivered to Hanoi following the second round of talks at the end of May [1]

据报道，美国在关税谈判中向越南发出了一份"严苛"的要求清单。(第一财经) ...