Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC representatives revealed that the OPEC+ JMMC meeting did not propose any production policy recommendations [1] Group 1 - The absence of production policy suggestions indicates a potential stability in oil supply dynamics [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is set to hold an online meeting to review production quotas for 2025 and 2026, with a focus on whether to continue the current production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day [1][2] - The importance of the overall OPEC+ quota has diminished over the past two years, with actual supply adjustments primarily led by a core group of eight countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia [1] - The recent production increase announcement by these countries was three times the expected amount, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, marking a fracture in the alliance's efforts to support oil prices [1] Group 2 - The Brent crude oil contract price has stabilized around $65 following the partial removal of tariffs by Trump, with OPEC+ representatives providing various explanations for policy shifts [2] - The meeting may provide Saudi Arabia with an opportunity to pursue goals of punishing overproducing members and regaining lost market share, although there are currently no signs of such plans on the agenda [2] - The initial meeting will be conducted by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, followed by a full meeting of all 22 member countries, culminating in a biennial review by the 12 core OPEC members [2]

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, Shandong Province's petroleum coke production reached 243.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 19.6 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 12.0 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production in the same period for the entire country was 806.3 million tons, with Shandong accounting for 30.2% of this total [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, Shandong Province's petroleum coke production was 75.5 million tons, down 20.5% from March 2024, with a growth rate 23.5 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 17.6 percentage points lower than the national average [2] - The national petroleum coke production for March 2025 was 274.1 million tons, with Shandong's contribution being 27.5% [2]

据俄新社报道，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克周一表示，欧佩克+尚未在会议前讨论将石油产量再提高41万桶/日 的问题。欧佩克+将于28日举行线上部长级会议。诺瓦克表示，预计他们将讨论当前的市场形势、预测 和一些"调整"。欧佩克+的8个国家还将举行另一次会议，这些国家曾承诺额外自愿削减石油产量。三位 欧佩克+消息人士周一早些时候称，他们将于5月31日召开会议，比原计划提前一天。诺瓦克还表示， 七国集团和欧盟计划将俄罗斯石油价格上限从目前的60美元/桶收紧至50美元/桶，这是不可接受的，这 些限制措施未能遏制俄罗斯的石油出口。(第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC+ has not yet discussed the option of increasing oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, indicating that any adjustments will depend on current market conditions and expectations [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ will consider current market conditions and expectations before making any necessary adjustments [1] - The potential tightening of the oil price cap by the G7/EU is deemed "unacceptable" by Russian officials [1] - The price cap set by the West on Russian oil exports has not yet impacted Russia's oil export levels [1]

Group 1 - The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the G7 and EU's efforts to tighten the price cap on Russian oil are unacceptable [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has postponed the meeting regarding July oil production policy to May 31 [1] Group 1 - Multiple representatives indicated the delay in the OPEC+ meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation is expected to receive a limited license from the U.S. Treasury Department for restricted operations in Venezuela, allowing only critical maintenance and safety-related functions [1][5]. U.S. Policy Shift - The new license represents a significant shift from the broader authorization previously granted under President Biden, which allowed Chevron to produce and sell Venezuelan crude oil [2][3]. - The restrictive nature of the new license indicates a return to Trump-era policies that prioritize isolation and pressure over engagement [3]. License Expiration and Implications - The current license for Chevron is set to expire on May 27, and the U.S. government will not renew it in its current form, contradicting earlier expectations of a 60-day extension [4]. - The limited license may only permit essential operations for safety and environmental protection, restricting Chevron's activities to basic maintenance [5][11]. Strategic Context - The limited license could serve as a strategic compromise, allowing the U.S. to maintain some influence in Venezuela while not appearing to support the Maduro regime [6]. - This policy development aligns with increased diplomatic activity aimed at restoring democratic governance in Venezuela [8][9]. Chevron's Operational Strategy - Chevron's continued presence in Venezuela, even under limited capacity, reflects the strategic value of its joint ventures with state-run PDVSA, particularly in key fields [10]. - The new restrictions may lead to an extended period of non-operational status for Chevron, limiting its ability to generate revenues or advance production capabilities [11]. Conclusion on U.S.-Venezuela Relations - The expected license reflects a calibrated shift in U.S. policy, balancing pressure with a narrow path for future diplomacy, while preventing complete withdrawal that could benefit rivals like China, Iran, and Russia [12].

主动式博弈范式升级。欧佩克近期增产决策标志着其从传统"防御性限产"转向"主动式博弈"，通过释放 闲置产能转化为市场定价的期权工具，构建多维威慑体系。超预期增产表面削弱短期价格控制力，实质 通过"产能弹性调节"重塑市场预期锚定点，为未来政策调整预留战略空间。 全球石油软实力博弈正酣：欧佩克增产稀释油价，美国页岩油减产筑底。油价在每桶65美元新井成本线 形成支撑，双方策略角力下，市场呈现中枢下移而非崩盘。欧佩克"口号与行动分离"的精细调控，与页 岩油"价格-产量弹性"的反向对冲，共同维系着每桶60~70美元的微妙平衡。邓正红软实力表示，当前全 球石油软实力博弈集中在两股势力，即欧佩克联盟增产稀释石油软实力价值，而美国页岩油减产则支持 石油软实力运行。自欧佩克宣布增产后，油价开始触及美国页岩油新井成本线，造成油价中枢下移，而 非趋势下跌，页岩油对油价的反应对油价形成底部支撑。欧佩克的增产进度缓慢，给予页岩油支撑油价 的缓冲过程。从欧佩克实际产量来看，虽然欧佩克增产幅度较超预期，但实际增产推进较为缓慢，体现 欧佩克增产推进仍旧保持相对克制。基于邓正红软实力思想框架，结合当前全球能源市场动态，对欧佩 克增产策略、页岩油 ...