俄罗斯数据显示：俄罗斯6月石油产量继续低于OPEC+政策目标。 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has moved its policy meeting to Saturday, July 5, to discuss production levels, one day earlier than originally planned [1] - The meeting will involve eight oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria [1] - OPEC is expected to agree on an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in August [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ did not adjust oil production policy during the ministerial meeting and plans to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [1] - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain current oil production levels after the decision to increase production in July [2] - The Kuwaiti oil minister reiterated support for efforts to stabilize the global oil market [3] Group 2 - The eastern Libyan government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports due to repeated attacks on the national oil company [4] - Kazakhstan's minister stated that the country cannot cut oil production and believes that oil prices above $70 to $75 per barrel are suitable for all countries, with a projected production of at least 96 million tons this year [5] - The Iraqi oil minister urged compliance with agreements reached in OPEC+ meetings, emphasizing the importance of a unified stance for market stability [6] Group 3 - The U.S. White House indicated that the U.S. can significantly reduce Iranian oil production, as it has sufficient oil supply from other countries [7] - Reports indicate a decrease in natural gas flow at the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas, which may lead to a reduction in LNG production [8] - According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, the first ship carrying 28,500 tons of wheat has arrived at the Syrian port of Tartus since the fall of the Assad regime [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Domestic News - China is committed to high-level opening-up and welcomes U.S. financial institutions to participate in the development of its capital markets [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of creating a good ecosystem for platform economy and maintaining a fair market environment [1] - The National Health Commission reports a slowdown in the upward trend of COVID-19 cases nationwide [1] - The National Medical Insurance Administration is investigating issues related to pharmacists' licenses in retail pharmacies [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is strengthening the communication of rare earth export control policies, which may indicate a relaxation of export restrictions on European chip companies [1] - China has implemented visa-free travel for citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [1] International News - NATO plans to increase the number of brigade-level troops, with Germany being asked to deploy an additional 40,000 troops [2] - The German Ministry of Defense announces an additional military aid package of approximately €5 billion to Ukraine [2] - Hamas has reached an agreement with the U.S. Middle East envoy on a ceasefire outline for Gaza [2] - The EU officially lifts economic sanctions on Syria, with the stock market set to reopen on June 2 [2] - OPEC representatives state that no production policy recommendations were made during the recent OPEC+ JMMC meeting [2] - Discussions are ongoing between BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen with the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding tariff issues, aiming for an agreement by early July [2] - The EU trade chief will hold talks with U.S. officials regarding tariff policies and cooperation in sectors such as aviation, semiconductors, and steel [2] - The Swiss Federal Council is consulting on the impact of U.S. tariffs, with expectations that overall economic development will not decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is not expected to make any decisions regarding oil production policy in today's meeting [1] Group 1 - The meeting will not address changes to oil production levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC representatives revealed that the OPEC+ JMMC meeting did not propose any production policy recommendations [1] Group 1 - The absence of production policy suggestions indicates a potential stability in oil supply dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has postponed the meeting regarding July oil production policy to May 31 [1] Group 1 - Multiple representatives indicated the delay in the OPEC+ meeting [1]