Group 1 - Muxi Co., Ltd. has been listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.62% and the Nasdaq up 0.23% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied movements, with Tesla reaching a record closing high, up 3.07% [1] Group 2 - International oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping 2.73% to $55.27 per barrel [2] - Gold prices increased by 0.2% to $4310.21 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [2] - China's domestic demand contributed 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters, indicating a stable overall performance [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce announced a final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against EU pork imports, with tax rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [3] Group 4 - Dongjie Intelligent is planning to acquire controlling stakes in Aobo Intelligent, leading to a stock suspension [4] - Xiechuang Data intends to invest up to 9 billion yuan in server procurement for cloud computing services [4] - Zhongke Electric plans to invest approximately 7 billion yuan in a project for producing 300,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode materials [4]

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices declined as investors focused on the progress of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine war and anticipated a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for January delivery fell by $1.20, a decrease of 1%, closing at $58.88 per barrel [1]. - The January Brent crude oil contract settled down $1.26, a drop of 1.98%, at $62.49 per barrel [1]. - Both oil contracts reached their highest levels since November 18 during Friday's trading session [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts suggest that any agreement on the Ukraine issue could lead to increased Russian oil exports, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [2]. - The market anticipates an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meetings [2]. - Comments from Federal Reserve board members indicate significant internal disagreements, raising investor concerns about the direction of Fed policy [2]. Group 3: Ukraine Negotiations - Progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine remains slow, with unresolved issues concerning security guarantees for Kyiv and the status of Russian-occupied territories [2]. - U.S. and Russian officials have differing views on the peace proposals put forth by the Trump administration [2]. Group 4: Supply Risks and Projections - Analysts predict that potential outcomes from the latest push to end the war could lead to daily oil supply fluctuations exceeding 2 million barrels [3]. - A ceasefire is identified as a major downside risk for oil price outlook, while ongoing damage to Russian oil infrastructure presents an upside risk [3]. - Concerns about oversupply are expected to materialize, particularly as Russian crude and refined oil begin to circumvent existing sanctions, potentially pushing futures prices towards $60 per barrel by 2026 [3]. Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The G7 and EU are reportedly discussing a comprehensive maritime service ban to replace the price cap on Russian oil exports, which could further restrict supply from the world's second-largest oil producer [4]. - The U.S. is intensifying pressure on OPEC member Venezuela, including actions against alleged drug smuggling vessels and discussions of military action to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of crude oil prices remains bearish, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply disruptions. For precious metals, after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, they may enter a phase of consolidation. For various metals and non - metals, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and policy expectations. Financial products like stocks and bonds also show different trends under the influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut and other factors [2][3][47][48] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected last week due to increased exports, while the increase in middle - distillate product inventories raised demand concerns. The Fed's 25bp interest - rate cut did not bring unexpected positive effects. The medium - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical factors may cause supply disruptions, but the rebound space is limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has been declining. The increasing start - up rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The third - batch export quota of low - sulfur fuel oil is 700,000 tons, lower than last year's 1 million tons, but the supply pressure is limited due to the low quota utilization rate. It is recommended to consider a strategy of buying the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils at low levels [21] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures continued to fluctuate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and the prices in South China and Hebei remained stable. There is still support at the bottom of the futures price [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected, and precious metals fluctuated weakly. The Fed's risk - management interest - rate cut was not dovish enough, and after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated overnight, and long - position sentiment cooled after the Fed's interest - rate cut. Domestic social inventories decreased, and copper prices may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. Downstream start - up continued to increase seasonally, and the inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to be at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point yet. The current industrial driving force is not strong, and there is resistance at the March high [5] - **Zinc**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer level again. The supply of zinc mines is increasing globally, and the general direction of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged. Focus on the changes in LME zinc inventories [8] - **Lead**: The supply of aluminum ingots was tight in the short term, and the fundamentals improved. However, after the rebound of lead prices, the profit of recycled aluminum was restored, and the expectation of the resumption of production of recycled aluminum smelters was strengthened. Pay attention to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton for the rebound of lead [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel declined after the interest - rate cut. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel iron decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and foreign tin prices broke through the previous trend support. Pay attention to the performance of the MA60 moving average in the short term. The inventory risk overseas has decreased. The adjustment of tin prices is conducive to inventory reduction. Wait and see [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium prices fluctuated weakly, and market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The futures price of lithium carbonate showed support at a low level, and the overall trend was weak after the interest - rate cut [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals is limited, and more positive factors are needed to break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures of polysilicon fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The industry's production schedule in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [13] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures continued to weaken, and market confidence was insufficient. The daily output continued to rise, and production enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand improved, and there was a phased replenishment expectation in the agricultural downstream. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply and demand, and the market fluctuated at a low level [23] - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol continued to fall. The import volume decreased temporarily, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down. The short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, but the high - inventory pressure persists, and the boost to the market is limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions in the long term [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene returned to the 6,000 - yuan/ton level and fluctuated at a low level overnight. The weekly output increased slightly. The supply - demand situation in the domestic pure benzene market may improve in the third quarter, but the high - import volume expectation suppresses market sentiment [25] - **Styrene**: The Fed's interest - rate cut had limited impact on the market. There was an unexpected reduction in supply recently, but the demand entered a dull period. It is expected that northern enterprises may have low - price promotions before the National Day, which will suppress prices [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand for propylene improved, and the price was supported. The supply of polyethylene increased in demand due to the rise in downstream factory start - up rates, and the supply decreased due to more domestic maintenance enterprises. The improvement of the polypropylene supply - demand fundamentals is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC was in a weak operation with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The performance of caustic soda varied by region. The futures price of caustic soda may fluctuate [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA followed the decline in oil prices and external sentiment. The demand for PTA continued to improve, but the inventory of polyester yarn was moderately high and the profit was poor. The valuation of PX/PTA may be dragged down by weak macro - demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by new - device expectations and weak external sentiment, ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected port arrival volume increased slightly. Pay attention to the commissioning of new devices [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the soybean meal futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view on soybean meal [35] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of US soybean oil declined. The long - term trend of soybean and palm oil is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices continued to fall. The supply bottleneck of domestic rapeseed products still supports prices, but the change in import expectations will put pressure on prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans stopped falling and entered a sideways shock. The expected opening price of new - crop soybeans is low. Pay attention to the confirmation of the positive expectation of trade relations and the policy guidance of new - crop soybeans [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low overnight. Spot prices in different regions showed differentiation. Pay attention to the operation of Dalian corn before and after the new - grain opening price and the possible policy guidance [39] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs continued to fall and hit a new low this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish thinking should be maintained after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [40] - **Eggs**: The egg futures reduced positions significantly, with the near - term contract being weaker than the far - term contract. The spot price began to correct. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - term contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - term contracts [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The weekly signing data of US cotton was good. The domestic cotton spot sales were poor. The Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be a bumper harvest. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still oscillating [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated overnight. The domestic sugar sales were fast, and the inventory pressure was light. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season increased. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43] - **Apples**: The futures price of apples fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, but the supply - side lacked positive drivers. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term [44] - **Timber**: The futures price of timber fluctuated. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand during the off - season was good with smooth inventory reduction. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fell slightly. The port inventory in China increased, and the supply was relatively loose. The demand was average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within the range [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market fell yesterday, and the stock - index futures contracts all closed down. A shares may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillating upward trend in the short term. It is advisable to allocate more to the technology - growth sector in the medium term and consider allocating to the cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market is waiting for the next interest - rate cut opportunity. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The frequent price cuts of shipping companies reflect the high pressure of cargo collection at the end of the month. The freight rate center is expected to move down further, and the October contract may fall below 1100 points. The spot weakness will suppress the sentiment of far - month contracts [20]

Group 1 - US stock market closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching both intraday and closing all-time highs [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Amazon up 1.44%, Meta up 1.21%, Apple up 1.12%, and Microsoft up 1.07%, while Nvidia fell 0.04% [1] - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, increased by 4.5%, closing with a market capitalization of $3.04 trillion, becoming the fourth US publicly traded company to surpass a $3 trillion market cap [1] Group 2 - Tesla shares rose 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk purchased 2.57 million shares for approximately $1 billion [1] - Nuclear power stocks saw significant gains, with Oklo up 15.7%, Nano Nuclear up 13%, and Uranium Energy up 10.6% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.87%, and notable gains from Li Auto (over 6%), Bilibili (over 5%), NIO (over 4%), and XPeng (over 2%) [1] Group 3 - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.45, or 0.67%, closing at $67.44 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures increased by $0.61, or 0.97%, closing at $63.30 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.9%, closing at $3,719.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,724.9 per ounce [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, with limited rebound space each time. For precious metals, after continuous rises, the volatility intensifies, and caution is needed when chasing high. For most commodities, market trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators [2][3] Summaries by Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded, with Brent's November contract up 1.84% and SC's October contract down 1.39%. The trading strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Last week, FU warehouse receipts decreased by 6800 tons in total, giving some support to FU. The LU - FU spread continued to shrink, from 710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 550 yuan/ton [22] - **Asphalt**: On Friday, asphalt warehouse receipts increased by 3800 tons. The slowdown in shipment volume in early September is expected to have a short - term impact. Factory and social inventories are both decreasing, and the strength of the bottom support of asphalt cracking needs to be observed [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by the rebound of import costs. It is expected to run strongly against oil in the short term, but the follow - up rise is limited under the pressure of high warehouse receipts on the futures market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With the moderate rise of the US CPI and the appearance of weak employment signals, the market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Precious metals are running strongly, but caution is needed when chasing high after continuous rises [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices rose and then gave back some gains. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium of selling call options on the 2510 contract with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and it is expected to test the resistance at the March high in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the overseas supply is tight. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, driving up the LME zinc price and pulling up the domestic market. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The supply pressure is weakening due to the co - existence of refinery overhauls and restarts. The short - term resistance is around 17,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upstream price support has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to view it as a low - level shock [10] - **Tin**: Last Friday, the prices of tin both at home and abroad increased. It is not recommended to chase high, and it is advisable to take profits on previous long positions [11] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: Last week, the urea futures contract continued to fall. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the weak market is expected to continue [25] - **Methanol**: The port inventory of methanol has been increasing significantly. The market is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price is oscillating around 6000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation in the third quarter may improve, but the current price is weak [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure of polypropylene increases, and the demand recovery is slow. The demand for polyethylene fails to meet expectations in the peak season [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating narrowly, with high supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices, the prices of PX and PTA are weakening. The demand for terminals is improving, and the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil may rise before the National Day [31] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral to bearish. The market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The USDA report is neutral to bearish. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed harvest is in progress. The price of rapeseed futures may rise slightly [39] - **Corn**: It is expected to oscillate strongly before and after the new grain starts to be sold, and then the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating strongly. The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral. The domestic cotton production in Xinjiang is likely to be a bumper harvest [44] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is oscillating. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45] - **Apple**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply side lacks positive drivers. The futures price is expected to continue to fall in the short term [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated trend in the market. The M1 - M2 gap continued to repair, and market confidence was boosted. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are rising in an oscillating manner. The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [50]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 2.17%. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Indian refineries' Russian oil purchases are expected to drop from 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year to 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels per day after October. Before geopolitical risks further escalate, crude oil may enter a sideways trend [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals trended sideways with an upward bias. The market has priced in a September Fed rate cut, but the future economic direction remains uncertain. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials has reignited concerns about the Fed's independence, which may further erode the US dollar's credit. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Copper - Overnight, LME copper closed higher, while SHFE copper traded sideways below 79,500 yuan. The decline in US durable goods orders in July was better than expected, and consumer confidence remained weak. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose. At the beginning of the week, social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and aluminum rods by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. In the short - term, SHFE aluminum will test the resistance around 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of SHFE aluminum. The spot price of Baotai was raised to 20,200 yuan. There is room for the cross - variety spread between the spot and SHFE aluminum to further narrow [5]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. It is in a weak sideways trend, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [6]. Zinc - The increase in global zinc mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [7]. Lead - Due to weak demand, the rebound momentum is weak. However, the decline space is also limited [8]. Silver and Stainless Steel - SHFE silver rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Technically, silver prices still show an intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling opportunities [8]. Tin - Overnight, both domestic and overseas tin prices rose, breaking through the integer - level resistance. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading volume shrank. Adopt a bullish approach with risk control [10]. Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon decreased with reduced positions. In the short term, the price is under pressure due to emotional factors. Observe the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to trade sideways. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Continue to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market traded sideways. Overall, the supply - demand situation of iron ore is weakening marginally, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range [14]. Coke - The intraday price of coke declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [15]. Coking Coal - The intraday price of coking coal declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [16]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon was in a weak sideways trend. Observe the support at the previous low [17]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price of ferrosilicon was in a weak sideways trend. It mainly follows the trend of manganese silicon [18]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market for shipping continues to decline. The spot price is expected to continue to fall [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, oil prices tumbled. The LU - FU spread is expected to continue to narrow [20]. Asphalt - Overnight, oil prices tumbled, but the decline of BU was limited. Low inventory levels support both the futures and spot prices of asphalt [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market rebounded supported by import demand. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [22]. Urea - Urea futures prices were in a weak sideways trend, and spot prices continued to fall. In the short term, it is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to fall overnight. Pay attention to the macro atmosphere and the possibility of the restart of coastal MTO plants [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to trade in a narrow range overnight. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation may continue to be under pressure [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support has slightly improved, but there is no upward impetus. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not significant, but downstream demand has weakened. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is expected to increase slightly [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a sideways trend. The price of caustic soda has fallen from a high level. The current price is not cost - effective for chasing long positions [28]. PX and PTA - Overnight, PX continued its strong trend, while PTA had a weak rebound. Pay attention to the actual dynamics of the plants, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester capacity utilization increase [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is trading sideways around 4,500 yuan per ton. In the short term, it is relatively strong [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, driven by cost. Consider a long - position allocation if demand improvement is realized in the medium term. The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Glass - The spot price of glass is facing a weak reality of decline. Given the current low valuation and positive macro policies, the downward space of futures prices is limited [31]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil futures prices tumbled, while the price of Thai raw materials was stable with a slight increase. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash fluctuates slightly. In the long term, the supply of soda ash remains under high pressure. Consider short - selling at high rebounds [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of the week of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%. In the medium - to - long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal futures [34]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for China - US trade negotiations. Consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips in the medium - to - long term [35]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term sideways consolidation pattern, and the price center may shift downward [36]. Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 showed a weak decline. Domestic soybeans need to continue to pay attention to policies and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [37]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [38]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is weak, and the futures market follows the spot trend. The pig price is expected to remain weak in the medium term [39]. Eggs - Egg futures are in a weak trend. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of this year is increasing. Consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. Cotton - US cotton prices tumbled yesterday. Operate by buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [41]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices traded sideways. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a sideways trend [42]. Apples - Apple futures prices are in a sideways trend. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Wood - Wood futures prices are in a sideways trend. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to fall yesterday. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy or trade within the range [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the broader market traded in a narrow range with reduced volume. Maintain an increased allocation to the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. It is expected that the probability of a steeper yield curve will increase [47]

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - On August 6, all three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.18% at 44,193.12 points, the Nasdaq up 1.21% at 21,169.42 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.73% at 6,345.06 points [2] - Among the seven major tech companies, six saw gains, with Apple rising over 5% and only Microsoft experiencing a slight decline of 0.53% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in the US, increased by 0.93%, with notable gains from QuantumScape (up 9.51%) and Tiger Tech International (up 5.78%) [2] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent crude oil down 1.11% at $66.89 per barrel and WTI crude oil down 1.37% at $64.27 per barrel [3] - Gold prices also saw a slight decline, with London spot gold down 0.35% at $3,368.81 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 0.08% at $3,431.80 per ounce [5][6] Group 3: Market Risks and Warnings - Several international financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, warned clients about the potential for a decline in US stock prices due to high valuations and deteriorating economic data [7] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggested that the S&P 500 could correct by as much as 10% this quarter, while Evercore ISI projected a potential decline of 15% [7] - Options trading indicated increased costs for hedging against a downturn in the stock market, with the price difference for options contracts reflecting a high level of concern since the regional banking crisis in May 2023 [8]

Market Performance - US stock market closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones recovering losses from the previous trading day, driven by signs of economic slowdown from last week's non-farm payroll data [1] - The Dow Jones index rose by 1.34%, the Nasdaq index increased by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 index gained 1.47% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced gains, with Nvidia rising by 3.62% to $180 per share, setting a new closing record [1] - Google, Meta, and Broadcom all saw increases of over 3%, while Tesla and Microsoft rose by more than 2% [1] Commodities - Brent crude oil contracts fell by $0.91, a decrease of 1.31%, closing at $68.76 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped by $1.04, a decline of 1.5%, settling at $66.29 per barrel [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.85%, priced at $3428.6 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.4%, closing at $37.445 per ounce [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.33%, with notable gains in stocks such as Xpeng and Miniso, both up over 4% [1] - Bilibili and JD.com increased by more than 2%, while NIO saw a decline of over 8% [1]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].