gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨2.78%。伊朗总统批准该国暂停与国际原子能机构的合作，围 绕伊核问题的中东地缘风险再度升温，7月9日到期日前美国与越南达成贸易协议亦令贸易战风险弱 化。原油供需面宽松主题延续，上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加384.5万桶，汽油表需低于预期水 平,旺季因素亦难扭转OPEC+快速增产预期之下的全球石油累库趋势。关注宏观及她缘利多因素的 发酵空间，原油供需指引仍偏负面。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步 行动将完全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，市 场降息预期升温，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公布。 （铜） 隔夜美盘铜价高位领涨，伦铜收在1万美元以上。美国ADP私人就业人数意外下降，市场继续交易7 月降息概率。特朗普表示与越南完成20%出口关税、对转口征收40%出口关税的协议,威胁对日高关 税。沪铜关注现价跟调力度与现货升贴水。技术上，短线沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

随着特朗普部分取消关税，布伦特原油合约价格现已稳定在65美元左右。 对于政策转向，欧佩克+代表给出了多种解释：从满足夏季燃料需求、惩罚超产成员国，到安抚特朗普 总统、夺回丢失的市场份额。从理论上讲，周三的会议可能为沙特提供机会，进一步推进后两个目标。 尽管八国集团目前仅恢复了2023年以来停产的约220万桶产量的一半，但如果维持当前加速增产的节 奏，他们将在10月前完成进程。若欧佩克+完全致力于夺回市场份额，可能在周三的讨论中提议修改基 础产量配额。沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王素以临时抛出惊人举措著称，但代表们表 示，目前尚未看到此类计划进入议程的迹象。 智通财经APP获悉，欧佩克+(OPEC+)周三将举行线上会议，审查今明两年的生产配额。八名核心成员 国将于周末决定是否在7月继续扩大产量。 多位不愿具名的代表透露，预计石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴将维持2025年和2026年的长期产量目标不 变——这些目标是当前供应限制政策的基础。市场更关注的焦点是，是否继续实施每日41.1万桶的增产 计划(过去两个月该计划已导致油价暴跌)。代表们表示，这一议题将在周六的视频会议上最终敲定。 会议安排的时序凸显了 ...