泰国财长：泰国希望与美国的贸易谈判达成"双赢"。 ...

泰国与美国的贸易谈判尚未结束。 泰国将根据美国的反馈来修改关税提案。 泰国财政部长Pichai：与美国政府的贸易谈判"顺利"。 ...

泰国财长：泰国与美国的贸易谈判尚未结束。 ...

泰国财长：贸易谈判有助于增强美国的信心，我们与美国政府的贸易谈判"进行得很顺利"。 ...

法国工业部长：在与美国的贸易谈判中，我们要坚定立场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline from a high of $3363 to around $3311 due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which dampened expectations for rapid interest rate cuts and reduced gold's appeal [1] - In June, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Prior to the non-farm data release, market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve had dropped to 23%, with a 98% probability for a September cut. The strong employment data extinguished short-term rate cut hopes, leading traders to abandon July cut bets entirely, with September cut probabilities also falling to 80% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, indicating that the Fed would closely monitor the impact of tariff discussions on inflation and employment, aligning with the view that unless economic data shows significant deterioration, rate cuts in July and September are unlikely [1] - On trade, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2, with approximately 100 countries expected to face at least a 10% reciprocal tariff [1] Technical Analysis - The gold market is showing a short-term bearish trend after breaking below the neckline of a standard M-top pattern near the resistance level of $3363. A failure to break the neckline resistance on any rebound will likely continue the downward trend [3] - The MACD indicator shows a death cross near the zero line, indicating that the market has entered a downward adjustment phase. The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions near resistance levels [3] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is suggested at $3344.0 with a stop loss at $3354.0 and targets set at $3330.0 and $3300.0 [4] - For silver, a short position is recommended at $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.30 and targets at $36.50 and $36.30 [6] Market News - Upcoming economic data releases include France's May industrial output at 14:45, Switzerland's June adjusted unemployment rate at 15:00, and Eurozone's May PPI at 17:00 [6]

美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和西门子，此前要求其在华业 务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子称已全面恢复中国客户对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思 科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。美国国会众议院以 218 票赞成、 214 票反对的表决结果通过 了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及 大企业减税等而备受争议。白宫说，特朗普定于 7 月 4 日即美国"独立日"当天签署该法案，使其生效。 该法案将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限提高 5 万亿美元，国会预算办公室（ CBO ）估计，这可能会让 政府预算赤字未来十年内增加 3.4 万亿美元。国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一， COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.71% 报 3336.00 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.85% 报 37.04 美元 / 盎司。美联储政策转向预期 与贸易紧张局势支撑金价，但强劲非农数据削弱避险需求。美国财长暗示更大降息幅度，欧盟与美国贸 易谈判进展引发市场关注。 重点品种： 贵金属、甲醇、玻璃 甲醇： 甲醇上涨 0.88% 。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump will decide whether to extend trade negotiations beyond the July 9 deadline [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. will act according to the President's wishes regarding the sincerity of negotiations with trade partners [1] - He met with the EU trade representative and mentioned that U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer will work with European officials over the weekend [1] - Regarding Japan, Mnuchin noted that no agreement has been reached, potentially due to complexities arising from domestic politics in Japan [1] Group 2: Vietnam Agreement - Mnuchin stated that an agreement with Vietnam has been "principally reached," with the core content being the 20% tariffs announced by Trump [1] - He clarified that these tariffs will not be added on top of the existing 10% general tariffs [1]

美国财长贝森特：日本即将举行的选举可能正限制贸易谈判。 ...