期货研究报告|外汇月报 2025-05-06 预期扰动增强，美元短暂偏弱 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 FICC 组 投资咨询号：Z0014617 联系人 朱思谋 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 美元短期偏弱，建议维持区间震荡思路，关注政策扰动与外部经济预期变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 美元兑人民币汇率在 4 月下旬至 5 月初整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，阶段高点出现在 7.35 附近，随后回落至 7.27 一线。离岸人民币在五一假期期间短线快速升值，受中美贸易预 期改善、美元指数回调以及市场风险偏好回暖等多因素影响。美元指数 4 月累计下跌约 4.5%，为近年来较大单月跌幅。期权隐含波动率先升后降，看涨期权隐波回落，人民币 汇率走势更趋双向波动。 4 月中国宏观数据环比走弱但整体好于预期，美国增长数据不及预期。中国制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0，显示制造业短期承压，但高技术制造业 PMI 维持在 51.5 的扩张区间，非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.4，服务业恢复动能延续。美国方面，4 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下 滑至 48.7，一季度 GDP 录得-0.3%，带动花旗经济意外指 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]

Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, discussing global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a total of HKD 116.614 billion over three days to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, ensuring the effectiveness of the linked exchange rate system [1] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced films entering the U.S. market as part of a broader trade strategy aimed at negotiating new trade agreements with multiple countries [1] Group 2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the Trump administration's tariff policies have significantly harmed California, but the state remains committed to maintaining long-term trade relations with China [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [2] - Eurozone inflation levels remained stable, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the European economy [2] Group 3 - Japan's official unemployment rate for March was reported at 2.5%, slightly above expectations [3] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.24% to 41,218.83 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.64% to 5,650.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.74% to 17,844.24 points [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.09% to USD 3,343.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.29% to USD 32.68 per ounce [5] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil main contract fell by 1.82% to USD 57.23 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 1.55% to USD 60.34 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.86 basis points to 3.8302%, the 5-year yield increased by 2.1 basis points to 3.9376%, the 10-year yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.3433%, and the 30-year yield increased by 4.67 basis points to 4.8336% [6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 99.79, while the euro rose by 0.14% against the dollar to 1.1316 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $3200 to $3350 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, influenced by a weaker dollar and anticipation of trade policy clarity between the U.S. and its trading partners [1] Group 1 - Gold prices strengthened on Monday due to a softening dollar, as investors await clearer trade policies [1] - Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, indicated that gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the $3200 to $3350 range before the Federal Reserve meeting [1] - Any new developments regarding trade agreements could lead to increased volatility in gold prices [1]

正文 朋友们，最近美国发生了一件大事，可能对咱们国内的电商卖家和海淘族都有些影响——那就是，美国 对中国商品的800美元免税额度正式取消啦！这意味着，以前那些轻轻松松就能免税到手的中国商品， 现在都要乖乖交税了！ 想想看，以前花个几百美元就能买到心仪的电子产品、潮流服饰或者各种小玩意儿，现在都要多掏出一 笔不小的税款，这感觉，是不是就像心口被扎了一刀？ 不少美国网友已经开始哭诉了，说以前圣诞节、感恩节买礼物轻松得很，现在钱包瘪了，过节都难了！ 以前轻松愉快网购的快乐时光一去不复返了！ 来源：小编 800美元免税额度取消，美国人钱包哭泣！进口商品价格飙涨，节日购物变得异常艰难。更有网友直 呼"中国无辜受罚"，这究竟是怎么回事？让我们一起深入探讨！ 一些高质量、有独特卖点的中国商品，依然可以在美国市场占据一席之地。毕竟，价格只是消费者考虑 的一个因素，产品质量、品牌口碑、售后服务等因素，同样重要。 所以，对于国内的卖家来说，现在更需要提升产品质量，加强品牌建设，提供更好的售后服务，才能在 新的市场环境下继续保持竞争力。 说到底，这个800美元免税额度的取消，就像一场突如其来的风暴，给中美贸易关系带来了新的挑战。 ...

当地时间5月3日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会在美国召开。现年94岁的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执 行官、被称为"股神"的沃伦·巴菲特宣布，计划于2025年底退休。他还在现场回答关于美国关税政策问 题，指出美国不应该"将贸易当作武器"。2023年11月，南都记者曾在巴菲特好友查理·芒格去世时梳理 两人相识故事，他们还曾在2010年时到广东深圳参观车企。 据悉，当地时间5月3日，被誉为"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州奥 马哈召开。现年94岁的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特出席会议。 2010年9月27日下午3点半，巴菲特和芒格乘坐专机降落深圳宝安机场。当天，他们参观了比亚迪位于深 圳的总部公司和生产工厂。 工厂里，巴菲特、芒格和比尔·盖茨乘坐着绿色的导游小车，衣着都很简便。巴菲特穿着一件颜色艳丽 的紫色Polo衫，上印着车企的标志，芒格则是一身低调的白衬衫，敞着领口。 当时，巴菲特、芒格和比尔·盖茨还在该广东车企内拍摄了一张纪念合影。他们站在这家公司一辆当时 最新款的汽车旁，竖起大拇指，笑容满面。在他们背后的大屏幕上，写着"Build Your Dream"。 当地时间2 ...

#时事热点我来评#规矩改了？对不住，这店，关了！ 风，有时会改变方向。 吹到很远的地方。 吹到，太平洋的另一端。 美国。那里。 规矩，变了。 关 于，那些小小的包裹。 那些，带着商品，飞过千山万水的小东西。 以前，它们可以，轻轻松松地，跨过边境。 带着免税的身份。 成本不高。速度不慢。 但近日。规矩，变了。 5月2日。一个日子。被路透社报道了。 美国，取消了，针对中国商品的小额包裹免税政策。 这就像在一条原本通畅的小路上，突然 设了一道，极高的收费站。 收费，有时高达，145%。 商人。逐利的。水，往低处流的。 成本变高了。利润，没了。甚至，亏损了。 有人，做出了选择。 简单。直接。 不卖了。 停止向，美国客户销售产品。 或者，看看别的路子。别的玩法。别的江湖。 这就像，开着一家小店，生意好好的，突然门前的路被 封了，或者过路费高得离谱。 怎么办？ 关店。或者，挪个地方。 这事一出，网上看热闹的不嫌事大，买惯了便宜货的美国顾客，可能要傻眼了。 你看，有人就带着幸灾乐祸的口吻： "这叫什么？这叫'杀敌八百，自损一千'！想通过关税把羊毛薅回来，结果羊直接不过来了！美国顾客：'我的小玩意儿呢？我的中国制造呢？怎么一 ...

Group 1: Amazon and Jeff Bezos - Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares of Amazon stock, valued at approximately $4.8 billion, as part of a long-term financial strategy [1][3] - The share sale will be executed under a 10b5-1 plan, which allows executives to set up a trading plan to avoid insider trading allegations [2] - Amazon's recent quarterly earnings exceeded expectations, but the company's guidance for the next quarter's operating profit is below market expectations, influenced by trade policies and tariffs [3][4] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by absorbing $6 billion in sell orders, marking the first such action since April 2020 [6][7] - The HKMA's actions reflect a shift in market conditions from capital outflow to inflow, with the banking system's liquidity expected to double following the intervention [9][10] - Factors contributing to the strong demand for the Hong Kong dollar include global capital flow changes and increased demand for Hong Kong stocks due to the upcoming dividend season and IPO activities [11][13][15] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Market - The total market size of credit bond ETFs has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 29.655 billion yuan in 2025 [19][20] - The rise of credit bond ETFs indicates a shift in the capital market towards "certainty" rather than "high yield," appealing to investors seeking stable returns [24] - Recent regulatory changes allow credit bond ETFs to participate in general repo transactions, further accelerating their growth [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - South Africa's new vehicle sales in April increased by 11.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in market demand [1] Sales Performance - Total new vehicle sales reached 42,401 units in April, with passenger car sales at 30,101 units, up 16.9% year-on-year [1] - Light commercial vehicles, pickups, and small passenger vehicles saw sales of 9,961 units, a 3.2% increase, marking the first year-on-year growth in several months [1] - Medium commercial vehicle sales reached 629 units, reflecting a 10.2% increase [1] - Heavy trucks and buses experienced a decline in sales, totaling 1,710 units, down 11.1% year-on-year [1] Export Trends - South Africa's total vehicle exports in April amounted to 31,822 units, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year [1] - The CEO of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) highlighted potential challenges for exports due to global trade policy changes [1] - The impact of increased tariffs on imported vehicles in the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) may weaken South Africa's competitiveness in the U.S. market [1] - In 2024, South Africa's total exports of vehicles and parts to the U.S. are projected to reach 18.3 billion rand (approximately 1.54 billion USD), making it one of the major automotive suppliers to the U.S. [1]