今年全球最大的一笔"股票发行"，并没有发生在纽约证交所，也不在纳斯达克的大屏幕上。而是一场仅 对不到50位"被点名"的投资者开放的私募交易。 OpenAI今年完成了一轮高达400亿美元的私募融资，规模不仅碾压今年所有IPO，甚至比历史上最大IPO 还要高出100多亿美元。但这场资本盛宴，与绝大多数美国散户毫无关系——参与者包括软银、黑石、 Coatue，以及OpenAI CEO Sam Altman本人。 "最快增长"发生在IPO前，私募交易热催生巨无霸私企 过去，上市曾是科技公司发展的重要分水岭。企业通过IPO募集资金、扩大规模，而公众投资者则得以 在早期分享成长红利。但这一模式正在发生根本性变化。 一个被反复提及、却仍被低估的事实是：美国上市公司数量，已经较1990年代末的高点腰斩。在互联网 泡沫顶峰时期，美国资本市场上曾有超过8000家上市公司；而如今，这一数字只有当年的一半左右。 与此同时，企业上市的时间被一再推迟。数据显示，2000年企业IPO的中位"年龄"只有6年，而现在已 拉长到14年。 换句话说，当一家企业终于走向公开市场时，它往往已经完成了最陡峭的一段增长曲线。 等普通投资者终于能在二级市场 ...

12月8日，国家金融监管总局副局长肖远企在亚洲保险论坛上发表主旨演讲时指出，近年来，非银行金 融资产与银行、保险机构的联系日益紧密。尽管银行和保险公司都在努力为信贷和资产配置制定高标准 的解决方案，但紧密的相互联系使得风险更难识别、传播更快。 肖远企认为气候变化已对保险业带来多维度影响。一方面，全球气温攀升和极端天气事件频发，迫使保 险公司修订精算假设、调整承保范围并升级风险模型。另一方面，气候风险也催生了新的市场需求，推 动了财产保障与资产保全类保险产品的开发。他以中国北方某地为例，指出重大灾害显著提升了农户的 保险意识，主动投保正成为趋势，这凸显了保险在灾后恢复中的关键作用。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 肖远企表示，当前保险业，尤其是寿险公司，面临的最大挑战源于高利率环境的冲击。在经历了近20年 的低利率周期后，美联储的快速加息以及全球主要经济体的高利率政策，使得许多建立在低利率范式上 的商业模式难以为继。 他指出，利率冲击不存在"缓冲期"，其对保险资产负债端的影响往往在短期便会显现。这要求保险公司 必须迅速优化资产负债组合、压缩运营成本并提升投资收益。 近年来，全球利率环境的骤然转变与日益严峻的气候 ...

Core Insights - Capital Group, a historically low-profile asset management firm, is undergoing a significant strategic transformation to adapt to the competitive landscape dominated by passive index investing and ETFs [1][11][12] - The company is expanding its ETF offerings and strengthening its partnership with KKR to attract more retail investor funds, marking the most fundamental shift since its founding in 1931 [1][11][12] Company Strategy - Under CEO Mike Gitlin's leadership, Capital Group aims to enhance its visibility and solidify its position among clients while attracting new ones [3][14] - The firm is collaborating with KKR to launch new fund products targeting retail investors, including a target-date retirement fund that combines public and private assets [3][14] - The partnership with KKR is designed to bridge the gap between institutional investors and retail investors, providing diversified investment opportunities [3][14] Market Context - Capital Group has faced net outflows from its stock mutual funds and related products for the past decade, prompting the need for transformation [4][15] - The firm is particularly focused on the private market as a new frontier, recognizing the increasing competition from firms like Apollo and Blackstone [6][17] Cultural Shift - Capital Group is moving away from its historically secretive and unique corporate culture to appeal to retail investors, including promotional activities like a hot air balloon campaign [7][18] - The company has a strong distribution network, serving over 20 million households and approximately 75% of financial advisors in the U.S., which is a significant asset in its new strategy [9][20] Fund Development - The new funds developed in partnership with KKR, including Capital Group KKR Core Plus+ and Capital Group KKR Multi-Sector+, will allocate 60% to public market debt and 40% to private credit [10][21] - The assets under management for the two new funds have already exceeded $500 million [6][17]

#报告 美银2026年股市展望——泡沫时代（下）别担心杠杆ETF，真正的雷在别处——“私募市场”可能是明年最大尾部风险 https://t.co/Wo7nbCKlitNone (@None):None ...

Core Insights - The global asset management industry is projected to grow from $139 trillion in 2024 to $200 trillion by 2030, with private equity becoming a significant revenue contributor, expected to account for over half of the industry's income within five years [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Market Growth - The private equity market is anticipated to generate $432 billion in revenue by 2030, surpassing the combined revenue of traditional active and passive investment products [1]. - Factors driving the rapid expansion of the private equity market include investor demand for higher returns, increased accessibility for retail investors, and a decline in public market IPOs [2][3]. Group 2: Traditional Asset Management Challenges - Despite the growth in asset size, the profitability of the asset management industry is under pressure, with 89% of firms experiencing profit challenges over the past five years [4]. - Profit margins have decreased by 19% since 2018 and are expected to decline by an additional 9% by 2030, primarily due to rising costs and the growth of low-fee passive funds [4]. - The rapid growth of passive funds is projected to increase from approximately $40 trillion to $70 trillion by 2030, further compressing overall fee levels in the industry [4]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts in the Industry - Companies are encouraged to innovate and restructure their business models to remain competitive, as the winners will be those that adapt quickly rather than those that simply accumulate assets [5].

Core Insights - The private equity market is projected to generate over half of the wealth management industry's revenue by 2030, driven by increasing competition in private debt, equity, and infrastructure sectors [1][3] - PwC's report indicates that by 2030, the asset and wealth management industry will derive approximately $432 billion in revenue from private assets, surpassing the combined revenue of traditional active and passive investment products [1] - Traditional fund companies are increasingly acquiring or partnering with private market firms to strengthen their positions in the crowded private equity market [1] Industry Trends - The asset management industry is facing continuous pressure on fees from traditional stocks, bonds, money markets, and multi-asset funds, with nearly 60% of surveyed institutional investors indicating they might switch managers due to cost concerns [3] - Despite high costs, both active and passive management fees are expected to decline, as traditional cost-cutting measures have had limited effectiveness [3] - The integration of technology, particularly artificial intelligence and automation, is seen as a crucial step for asset management firms to transform their business models and enhance resilience by 2030 [3]

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that AI-driven innovation will continue to support investor optimism, while global central bank policies, new trade orders, and fiscal risks are creating a complex investment environment [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that disparities in global equity markets may widen, advocating for diversified global equity allocation and a combination of fundamental and quantitative strategies [1] - The report highlights that emerging market stocks have the potential to outperform the global market by 2026, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks, which is below the long-term average [1] Group 2: Private Market Insights - In the private market, Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes a favorable environment for new transactions and exit activities, leading to increased dispersion in private equity fund manager performance [2] - The increase in private market transaction activity will provide limited partners (LPs) with new data to assess the performance of existing and potential managers, aiding in capital allocation decisions [2] - The firm anticipates continued interest from LPs in secondary market investments that are attractive and have shorter durations compared to private equity investments, especially as data science, AI, and automation mature [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $366 million, or $4.66 per share, which is significantly larger than prior periods due to the progress of the Private Wealth platform [3][4] - Fee-related earnings were $79 million, up 9% year-over-year, with a core FRE margin of 36% [4][5] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $66.7 million, or $0.54 per share, an increase from $53.6 million, or $0.45 per share, in the same quarter last year [5][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Private Wealth platform generated $2.4 billion in new subscriptions, nearly double the previous highest quarter [6][7] - Institutional fundraising saw $3.8 billion in managed account gross additions for the quarter, contributing to over $10 billion for the first half of the fiscal year [8][9] - Commingled funds generated $3.4 billion in gross additions, with notable contributions from the PE co-investment fund and the PE secondaries fund [10][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee-earning AUM increased by more than $5.5 billion in the quarter to nearly $133 billion, reflecting strong fundraising momentum [11][12] - The company generated $29 billion of gross AUM additions over the last 12 months, with $18 billion from separately managed accounts and $11 billion from commingled funds [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing data and technology offerings, including the launch of the Kroll StepStone Private Credit Benchmarks and FTSE StepStone Global Private Market Indices [11][12] - The partnership with Aviva aims to establish a presence in the U.K. defined contribution market, with expectations for material flows starting in 2026 [37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes current low distributions in private markets are temporary, with indicators suggesting improved realizations ahead [17] - The company is committed to monitoring market conditions and providing solutions for clients despite geopolitical and market challenges [17] Other Important Information - The company opened new offices in the Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, expanding its global footprint [10] - The adjusted cash-based compensation ratio was 46%, in line with expectations, while general and administrative expenses increased due to higher travel and IT costs [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the strong demand for StepX and any cannibalization risk? - The strong demand for StepX was driven by specific requests from channel partners for PE-exclusive exposure and the availability of a ticker [23] - Some rotation from SPRIME to StepX was expected and has mostly occurred [24] Question: How far along is the company in selling through distribution partners? - The company has room to grow, with many large distribution partners currently focused on two or three funds rather than all five [26][28] Question: What are the expectations for StepX's subscription rate going forward? - Initial subscriptions for StepX were around $750 million, but a pullback is expected in future quarters [31] Question: What drove the increase in G&A expenses? - The increase was primarily due to travel, IT, and general operating costs, with expectations for continued investment in infrastructure [33] Question: Can you discuss the partnership with Aviva and its potential? - The partnership with Aviva is significant in the U.K. defined contribution market, with material flows expected to build over time starting in 2026 [37] Question: How is the company expanding deal-sourcing capabilities? - The company maintains a balanced approach to deal flow, focusing on primary fund commitments to drive market position and data acquisition [43][44] Question: What are the future product strategies in the private wealth channel? - The company plans to focus on existing products while exploring innovative solutions and models for private markets [46][49]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have been identified as the primary concern for investors for the second consecutive year, with North American General Partners (GPs) particularly focused on high valuation pressures [9][10] - Overall sentiment among private market investors is optimistic, with expectations for liquidity release through various exit strategies increasing [2][4] Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Private market investors exhibit resilience, with strong sentiment towards tangible asset strategies, particularly in infrastructure (93%), private equity (82%), real estate (81%), and private credit (70%) [4] - GPs are optimistic about traditional exit routes expanding significantly, especially strategic sales (80% of GPs likely to adopt this method) and sales led by financial investors (70% considering this option) [5][6] - 83% of Limited Partners (LPs) plan to deploy the same or more capital in private market strategies in 2025, continuing a positive trend from previous years [8] Group 2: Valuation Challenges and Market Dynamics - Valuation remains the biggest challenge for new project investments, with 63% of respondents citing it as a key factor, and 60% indicating it as the main challenge for exits [4][5] - The emergence of new fund managers and the launch of new funds by existing GPs have intensified competition in the fundraising environment [2][5] - LPs are increasingly managing liquidity through secondary markets, with 17% of respondents selling assets in the secondary market this year, up from 11% last year [6][7] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - Many LPs are below their target allocation levels across various strategies, with significant under-allocations in co-investments (62% below target) and secondary markets (45% below target) [7] - The interest in evergreen structures is growing, with over 30% of LPs considering or using them for private equity and infrastructure investments [10] - Concerns about geopolitical instability and policy uncertainty dominate investor worries, with North American GPs particularly focused on high valuations as a risk factor [9][10]

Market Overview - The current market is well-priced but not exuberant, with investors focused on three key areas: moderating inflation, global earnings growth driven by AI and technology, and government regulatory easing [1] - A potential rally in the market could occur if these areas continue to show positive surprises [1] - Investors are also monitoring the rebound in emerging markets, particularly China, as global demand is significantly sourced from these regions [1] Private Markets Insights - There are indications of overpaying in private markets, suggesting a cautious approach to valuations [2] - The excitement around AI is reminiscent of the early automotive industry, where many companies emerged but only a few succeeded [3][4] - The app layer of AI presents challenges in predicting winners, leading to high valuations that may not be sustainable [5] Government Impact - The potential government shutdown could complicate the SEC's operations and delay IPOs, although historical data suggests minimal impact on stock markets during past shutdowns [6][7][8] - Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding the shutdown's duration and severity, reflecting a cautious stance [9] Investment Strategy - The company has a significant portion of its assets in private markets, with a current allocation of approximately 40-45%, aiming to increase private equity exposure from 12% to 20% [11][12] - The strategy emphasizes a low-cost passive approach in public markets while seeking outperformance through selective investments in private markets [12][13] - Engaging in direct co-investment activities is a priority, focusing on thematic deal sourcing and selection [13]