大家好，我是乔叔，这期咱们就说说美国加税"炸锅"，全球贸易硬抗风暴，到底谁能顶得住！ 2025年，东南亚对美国的商品出口突然涨了一大截，柬埔寨的服装出口翻了个倍。这表面上看着风风火 火，背后是全球贸易正在经历一场大地震。 美国本以为靠加税能把其他国家压趴下，谁知道亚洲这些出口大户反倒趁机"曲线救国"，货绕一下道， 还是能卖过去，转口贸易一下子成了发财路子。 这场风暴的真正问题不是贸易数据多漂亮，而是全球体系到底还能不能顶得住美国一个国家的作乱。 美国自己憋出的问题，砸到了全球的饭碗上 想明白这事，还是得回过头看看美国国内发生了啥。美国好些地方，工厂早就没影了，普通工人工作稳 不住、工资也难涨，长年累积的不满最后爆棚，直接走进了选票箱。 2024年总统大选那点差距，怎么看都像是"麻烦必须得管"的信号，再加上不少学者带头说"全球化只让 资本家赚得开心"，别说政策制定者了，老百姓听多了自然信。 这就变成了民情热和舆论热一起催出来的关税新政。美国这一轮背水一战不是别人搞的，就是自家几十 年矛盾一口气爆发了。 WTO有心无力，成了场上没人管的秩序 美国搞事情，但WTO这个原本设计来保驾护航的大家伙，眼下成了没人理会的无 ...

全球化背景下，中美两国在过去 30 年的经济互动有何特点？ 在过去 30 年中，中美两国通过不同模式共同构建了全球化的繁荣局面。美国 主要通过债务扩张来增加需求，而中国则通过高效、低成本的供给来满足这种 需求。这种互动使得美国能够从中国获得高效率、低成本的产出，从而推动了 自身及全球经济的发展。然而，这种繁荣本质上是基于债务扩张，两国都在进 行大规模债务扩张以维持各自模式下的经济增长。 美国在 2010 年至 2020 年间经历了怎样的发展阶段？ 美元债务是脆弱的根源，AI 是脆弱的推手，美国资本市场 把脆弱推向深渊 20251231 摘要 过去 30 年，中美通过债务扩张（美国）和高效供给（中国）共同构建 全球化，但美国过度依赖债务驱动增长，面临转型挑战。 新能源革命是中国制造业升级的关键，打破美国主导的全球分工，使中 国掌握更多高端制造环节，重塑全球利润分配格局。 美国当前面临债务危机，科技繁荣依赖债务扩张而非真实需求，高利率 加剧贫富分化，AI 发展或进一步恶化 K 型衰退。 中国通过科技产品降价驱动经济增长，推动全球科技通缩，实现可持续 发展，与美国依赖债务扩张的模式形成对比。 全球化逆转削弱美国通过 ...

2025年，香港"兴"动能勃发，"兴"气象愈发明显，由治及兴迈出新步伐。 新华社香港12月30日电 题：明珠更是璀璨时 ——2025 年香港由治及兴迈出新步伐 苏万明、张雅诗、谢妞 12月22日，阳光和煦，河套深港科技创新合作区迎来里程碑时刻——香港园区正式开园。这里将成为香港创科发展的桥头堡和试验田，更将成 为粤港澳大湾区乃至全球创新示范地。 2025年的香港亮点纷呈，分外抢眼：首次公开招股集资额全球第一、继续获评全球最自由经济体、金融中心再登全球三甲、本地生产总值同比 连升11季…… 来源：新华社 这是5月12日拍摄的香港城市风光。新华社记者 陈铎 摄 10月5日，游客在香港尖沙咀星光大道游览。新华社记者 陈铎 摄 动能勃发气象万千 27岁的英国青年梅赫·塔赫尔在英国出生长大，曾在温哥华和墨尔本学习生活。2024年底，他选择来香港从事癌症治疗研究，目前在岭南大学 担任资深研究工程师。 "香港学术环境和城市的开放性，以及科研资助和商业化机制多元活跃，让我感受到了整体的吸引力。"他说。 2025年，香港经济表现持续向好：本地生产总值已连续11个季度录得按年增长。其中，第三季度增幅更是扩大至3.8%，成为超过一 ...

Group 1: Film Industry - The 2025 New Year film season started on November 28 and will last until December 31, with a total of 34 days, and the box office (including pre-sales) has exceeded 4.9 billion yuan as of December 27 [1] - This year's film season features over 50 films across various genres, including animation, suspense, action, and science fiction, with "Zootopia 2" currently leading the box office [3] Group 2: Travel and Tourism - The demand for travel during the upcoming New Year holiday is strong, with popular travel themes including winter sports in the north and island vacations in the south [4] - As of December 25, domestic flight ticket bookings for the New Year holiday exceeded 2.71 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 35% [6] - For the 2026 New Year holiday, inbound flight ticket bookings surpassed 320,000, marking an 11% increase compared to last year, with significant growth in bookings from Spain and Italy [7] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Market - In Shanghai, the inbound tourism market is heating up, with various shopping districts and museums attracting foreign tourists, while traditional and new brands are merging to enhance consumer experiences [9] - In Shenzhen, the clothing wholesale market is experiencing a surge in business as year-end promotions attract consumers looking for new clothes for the New Year [13] - The restaurant industry in Guangdong is entering a peak season for reservations as families and friends gather for New Year celebrations, with a notable increase in online and offline bookings [17] Group 4: Agricultural Market - In Tianjin, the supply of vegetables has increased significantly, with a nearly 20% rise in supply compared to early December, and an expected overall increase of 10%-15% as the New Year and subsequent holidays approach [21][22] - In Urumqi, the local agricultural market is well-prepared for the holiday season, with over 20,000 daily visitors and a focus on ensuring sufficient supply and stable prices [25]

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）深圳的各大商圈等消费场景非常热闹，丰富多样的新产品、新场景吸引 众多消费者提前进入"跨年模式"。 科技消费也是深圳一大亮点，在深圳的另外一家商场，记者看到，众多新奇有趣的科技产品在此进行线 下首发，吸引了大批科技爱好者前来体验和购买。 总台央视记者 黄逸熙：在深圳南山区的一个热门商圈，为庆祝元旦佳节，这里举办了一场巧克力市集 活动，这个摊位就推出了十几种不同口味的手工巧克力。据介绍，从12月24日到明年1月2日，这片开放 空间将会变身成为一个沉浸式的巧克力乐园。数十个摊位汇聚了来自全国各地的巧克力品牌，在市集 里，连空气都弥漫着可可的醇厚香气。 这种"主题式"的消费场景，正在成为深圳岁末拉动消费的新引擎。元旦节前，深圳各大商圈已提前进 入"跨年模式"。 广东深圳海岸城购物中心品牌经理 孙菁：对商场整体进行了一些布置，可以看到，这些活动推出之后 有非常大的客流提升，环比（上周） 提升了30%左右。 与此同时，随着元旦假期临近，深港两地的消费互动日益频繁。在深圳多家大型超市，记者看到前来购 物的香港市民。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 广东深圳某生鲜超市店长 高佳：元旦前夕门店的综 ...

"零关税"红利将全面升级。封关后，大量进口原材料、设备将免除关税，尤其利好"两头在外"的加工制造企业。而更具吸引力的"加工增值免关税"政策， 允许在海南加工增值超过30%的货物进入内地免关税，且新规将本地原料也计入增值，使达标更容易，为高端制造提供了独特落地方案。 12月11日，一场关于"出海口"与"加油站"的对话在全球服务中心热烈展开。由海南国际经济发展局、招商银行联合主办，海口国际经济促进局、全球服务 中心支持的海南自由贸易港科技消费产业封关政策推介暨第六届中国国际消费品博览会（大湾区）路演活动成功举办，吸引了超50名大湾区科技消费企业 代表参会。深汇通集团副总经理黄小军、全球服务中心总经理李效冶一同参会。 "我们此行不仅是推介，更是'扩圈'。"海南国际经济发展局总经济师曾蓉的开场白，点明了深琼联动的深层含义。本次活动聚焦海南自由贸易港全岛封关 运作关键阶段的政策机遇与产业合作，进一步宣介海南自贸港核心政策，深化海南与深圳南山及出海服务生态伙伴的合作，助力大湾区企业借助自贸港及 消博会平台链接全球资源，实现更高水平的国际化发展战略。 封关在即：政策"工具箱"释放"真金白银" 12月18日，海南自由贸易港将 ...

随着免签政策持续放宽，能停留的时间变长了，"中国游"和"中国购"双双火热。据了解，华强北今年上半年日均接待外籍游客 超7000人次，同比2024年翻了一倍。不仅如此，今年，离境退税便利化水平全面提升，让"中国购"不仅体验感拉满，而且性价比 飙升，"即买即退"服务在全国推广，退税起征点由500元下调至200元，手续极大简化。在杭州，离境"一键退税"服务让外国游客只 需用手机"碰一下"，最快两分钟即可完成退税。 来得更方便、游得更舒心、买得更实惠，"带着空箱子来中国"的外国游客越来越多，带动入境消费潜力持续释放。国家税务 总局最新统计显示，今年前11个月，办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285%，退税商品销售额和退税额同比增长98.8%。 央视网消息：从北到南，不仅"中国游"热度持续攀升，"中国购"也火爆出圈。最近，"一定要带空箱子去中国！"这个实用小贴 士在海外社交平台讨论火热，空箱而来、满载而归，外国人来华买买买正成为跨境旅游新潮流。 在深圳华强北，巴西游客卢卡斯和父亲开启"采购模式"，除了刚刚拿下的这款搭载AI助手和GPS导航的智能眼镜，在两个大大 的行李箱里，他们还有不少收获，从物美价廉的日用品，到技术 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain weak for the next 4-5 months due to tariffs, but growth is anticipated to accelerate thereafter, particularly influenced by AI developments by 2026 [3][5] - In the baseline scenario, global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025, slightly decreasing to 3.1% in 2026, and then rising to 3.3% in 2027 [5] - The impact of tariffs is expected to suppress global exports and domestic prices in the U.S., while central banks in major emerging economies continue to lower interest rates [5][10] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's expansion is primarily concentrated in AI-related sectors, with GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 due to tariff impacts [10][11] - Inflation is expected to peak around mid-2026, with core PCE inflation projected to decline to 2.9% by Q4 2026 and 2.4% by Q4 2027 [10] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in December 2025 and January 2026 [11] China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, influenced by a slowdown in exports and a resilient domestic economy [13] - Policy support is anticipated to remain moderate, with fiscal deficits expected to expand slightly [13][14] - The "new economy" sectors are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7-8% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) [14] Eurozone and Japan Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, primarily due to the lagging effects of weak growth in late 2025 [15] - Japan may experience a technical recession in late 2025 but is expected to rebound in mid-2026, supported by a potentially expansionary fiscal policy [16] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index is expected to have about 10% upside in 2026, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth, with a significant contribution from technology companies [18][19] - The current technology cycle is compared to the 1990s, with substantial capital expenditure growth but still below historical peaks [20] Fixed Income and Currency Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to limit the reduction in front-end interest rates, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected to drop to 3.50% before rising to 4% by the end of 2026 [21] - The U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its attractiveness compared to other major markets, with the euro projected to trade between 1.14 and 1.18 against the dollar in 2026 [22] Commodity Insights - Gold is expected to outperform industrial and energy commodities, despite currently high valuations, with a reassessment anticipated in late 2026 [23]

Group 1: Trade Agreements Overview - The White House announced trade deals with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina aimed at reducing tariffs on certain goods like coffee, bananas, and beef exports [1][2] - The agreements will maintain reciprocal rates but will lower tariffs on items that cannot be produced in the U.S., with Argentina, Guatemala, and El Salvador facing a 10% tariff, while Ecuador will have a 15% tariff [2] Group 2: Political Reactions - The framework with Argentina includes lower tariffs on beef imports but does not increase the U.S. import quota, leading to concerns from both Democrats and Republicans about the impact on U.S. farmers and ranchers [5][6] - A letter signed by 14 Republican lawmakers expressed concerns that increased market access to Argentina could undermine American cattle producers and reintroduce animal health risks [6][9] Group 3: Benefits and Commitments - The White House highlighted potential benefits for Americans, including commitments from El Salvador to address non-tariff barriers and from Argentina to provide preferential market access for U.S. goods [13] - Guatemala has committed to not imposing digital services taxes that discriminate against U.S. products, while Ecuador will adopt high levels of environmental protection [13]

Summary of Conference Call on the US AI Debt Cycle Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **US AI industry** and its current debt cycle characteristics, drawing parallels with the real estate sector's dynamics [1][2][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Debt Cycle Characteristics**: The US AI industry exhibits significant debt cycle traits, characterized by rapid demand expansion and rising prices, which ultimately lead to declining investment returns. This mirrors the real estate cycle in China [2][6]. 2. **Capital Expenditure Growth**: There is an acceleration in capital expenditures within the US AI sector, with companies noticeably increasing leverage. However, this rapid expansion poses high risks and may likely lead to a future collapse [2][6]. 3. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: On the supply side, US companies are reluctant to expand supply significantly to maintain monopoly profits, similar to the real estate sector's avoidance of investing in essential materials. This results in soaring resource prices and declining investment returns [3][5]. 4. **Impact of Debt Expansion**: The US's debt expansion has led to a capital return shift towards countries like China, particularly benefiting its manufacturing sector due to strong production capabilities. This shift results in a decline in domestic investment returns in the US [5][7]. 5. **Sustainability of Current Development Model**: The reliance on corporate leverage for AI development is fragile, with limited government leverage available. This could lead to valuation declines, and the current model is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, risking bubble formation [6][10]. 6. **Global Energy Market Trends**: Investment trends in the global energy market are diversifying, with increased demand for AI and AIGC leading companies to invest in traditional energy sources (oil, coal) and new energy sectors. Prices for resources like oil, coal, and lithium carbonate are rising [8][9]. 7. **China's Economic Role**: China is leveraging technological innovation and traditional manufacturing to drive economic growth while reducing debt reliance. This strategy allows China to benefit from the demand released by US debt expansion without increasing supply, enhancing capital returns and stock market performance [9][10]. 8. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: In the current macro environment, investment strategies should align with the US debt cycle. An aggressive strategy focusing on Chinese assets and commodities is recommended during US debt expansion, while a defensive strategy should be adopted if the US halts debt expansion [11][12]. Other Important Insights - The ongoing US debt cycle is seen as favorable for China, as it can produce nearly all major manufacturing products and is expected to benefit from the demand generated by US debt expansion [7][10]. - The relationship between asset volatility and the debt cycle is crucial, as sustained debt expansion typically leads to significant asset price fluctuations, creating trading opportunities for savvy investors [12].