Core Viewpoint - Japanese companies are expected to be more cautious about capital expenditures due to the impact of US tariffs and concerns over a global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a contraction in the Japanese economy in the third quarter [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as January 2026, contingent on the belief that the global economy will not decline and that economic policies will be effective enough to restore real GDP to positive growth starting in the fourth quarter [1] Consumer Behavior - The extreme heat during the summer may cause hesitation among consumers to go out, which could limit the recovery of consumer spending [1]

Economic Growth - Japan's GDP for the second quarter grew at an annualized rate of 1.0%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4% and showing a revision from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1][4] - Business investment increased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 0.7%, while private consumption saw a slight growth of 0.2% [3][4] Central Bank Implications - The strong economic performance may reinforce market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, with 42% of economists surveyed anticipating a rate hike in October [4][5] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that if domestic demand remains stable, the central bank will continue to raise borrowing costs [4] Trade and Investment - Despite the uncertainties posed by U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate investment has shown steady growth, with large companies planning to increase investment by 11.5% this fiscal year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.1% [6] - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual exports increasing by 2% despite U.S. tariffs, as companies lowered sales prices to maintain market share [7] Consumer Spending - Private consumption accounts for nearly 60% of Japan's GDP, and despite ongoing inflation, its growth rate remains slightly above expectations, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [7][8] - Strong inbound tourism has also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending increasing by 18% in the second quarter [7] Future Outlook - The third quarter data may better reflect the impact of tariff policies as initial shock effects dissipate, with ongoing risks including persistent inflation [7] - Companies have committed to wage increases exceeding 5%, which may support consumer spending in the coming months [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in monetary policy paths among major global economies, with a growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in September, influenced by recent economic data and political statements [1][3][6] - The Australian central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking its third cut this year, with expectations of further reductions in the coming year [2][3] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining its policy rate at around 0.5%, with a complex situation as it prepares to normalize its monetary policy, contrasting with the easing measures taken by other developed nations [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is anticipated to reshape global asset pricing, with discussions shifting from whether to cut rates to the extent and nature of the cuts [3][5][6] - The divergence in monetary policies, particularly the suggestion of a "U.S. rate cut and Japan rate hike" scenario, is expected to alter the global interest rate structure and influence capital flows and market sentiments [6][7] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with rate cuts, it is projected to lead to increased liquidity in global financial markets, benefiting sectors such as high-growth technology stocks and potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields [7]

Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September, with three cuts expected by year-end[4] - U.S. June imports saw a significant decline, exceeding expectations[4] - Japan's central bank may resume interest rate hikes by year-end if U.S. tariffs have limited impact[4] - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices reached a two-year high in July[4] Market Performance - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.45 basis points to 3.762%[4] - 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.15 basis points to 3.833%[4] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 3.49 basis points to 4.287%[4] Economic Data - China's Q2 current account surplus was 971.5 billion yuan[4] - China's July CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while PPI's decline narrowed[4] - China's robot industry revenue grew by 27.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] Stock Market Indices - Nasdaq index closed at 21,450.02, up 0.98%[6] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,175.61, up 0.47%[6] - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,858.82, down 0.89%[6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is leading the search for the successor to the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, emphasizing the need for a candidate who can analyze complex economic data and gain market trust [1][2]. Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman should possess the ability to assess the entire institution and focus on forward-thinking rather than relying solely on historical data [2]. - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and has linked the discussion of the next chairman to the current chairman Powell [2]. - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and it is customary for the President to announce the next nominee in the final months of the current chairman's term [2].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current interest rate at 0.5% despite rising inflation, with no indication of a near-term rate hike [1][2] - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [1][2] - Major financial institutions in Japan are calling for a rate hike in September or October, citing the need to address the widening interest rate differential with the US and Eurozone [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan believes the underlying inflation rate has not reached 2%, and consumer activity has been declining since March [2][3] - Japan's GDP growth was -0.2% in Q1 and stagnant in Q2, indicating that inflation is not a sign of economic strength but rather a result of yen depreciation and labor shortages [3][4] - Political instability following the recent upper house elections complicates the situation, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [4][5] Group 3 - The US economy grew by 3.0% in Q2, but this growth is seen as temporary, and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could impact Japan's interest rate decisions [5][6] - If the US economy remains strong, it could lead to further yen depreciation and increased domestic prices in Japan, potentially creating an opportunity for the Bank of Japan to raise rates [5][6]

日本东证指数周四触及历史新高，追随华尔街隔夜强劲涨势，而日本国内企业稳健的盈利表现进一步增 强了人们对工资增长的预期。截至发稿，东证指数上涨近1%，报2993.14点。早些时候，该基准指数触 及2993.21点的历史新高。日经指数上涨0.9%，报41151.07点。 只要当前的势头得以保持，这两个指数都将连续第三个交易日上涨。在对美国经济和贸易的担忧日益加 剧的情况下，日经指数周一出现两个月来的最大跌幅，随后在接下来的三天里出现反弹。 住友三井信托资产管理公司首席策略师Hiroyuki Ueno表示："市场现在确信美国经济不会放缓。这对日 本央行的加息决策过程来说很重要。鉴于企业盈利状况良好以及工资上涨的趋势，市场目前预计日本央 行将在年底前加息。" 然而，日本政府周三公布的数据显示，由于通胀持续高于工资增长，日本实际工资在6月份连续第六个 月下降。这一趋势给日本央行的政策转变前景蒙上阴影，因为工资增长被视为可持续通胀的关键指标。 与此同时，越来越多的人预期，美联储最早可能在9月开始降低利率以支撑经济。 在东京证券交易所主板市场交易的1600多只股票中，70%上涨，26%下跌，3%持平。其中，三菱日联金 融集 ...

因此，野村认为美股进一步下跌的风险依然存在。两个关键的催化剂节点值得高度关注：一是8月12日 （周二）公布的7月CPI数据，若高于预期将打击降息预期；二是8月22日（周五）鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔 经济研讨会上的主旨演讲，若其对降息展现出谨慎姿态，可能引发市场抛售。此外，所谓的"报复性关 税"以及对美国劳工统计局局长的解雇等行为，也在削弱投资者信心，抑制市场的风险偏好。 美股下跌如何传导至日元利率？ 对于投资者而言，8月份日元利率市场的核心驱动力将是美国股市的表现。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券5日发布研报认为，若美股因经济担忧或美联储政策不及预期而深度回 调，将直接对日元利率构成下行压力，可能引发日本国债收益率曲线的"扭曲陡峭化"（即短端利率下 降，长端利率上升）。 关键风险点在于美联储对降息的态度，特别是主席鲍威尔在8月22日杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话，以及8月 12日公布的美国CPI数据，这些都可能成为美股下跌的催化剂。 与此同时，日本央行内部对通胀前景的分歧正在显现，尽管行长植田和男维持鸽派立场，但这为未来政 策增添了不确定性。短期内，盯紧美股和美联储，是交易日元利率的关键。 美股面临回调风险，成日元利率关键变量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's nominal wages have increased at the fastest rate in four months, raising speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the coming months [1] Wage Growth - In June, nominal wages rose by 2.5% year-on-year, up from a revised 1.4% in May, although it fell short of the expected 3.1% [1] - Basic wages increased by 2.1%, with full-time workers seeing a 2.3% rise [1] Real Wages and Inflation - Despite strong nominal wage growth, real wages fell by 1.3%, which was a larger decline than the anticipated 0.7% [1] - The main inflation indicator reached 3.3% in June, with over 1,000 price increases reported by food and beverage companies in August, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase [1] Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% last week, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing the importance of ensuring a "positive mechanism" for wages and prices [1] - Over 40% of respondents predict a rate hike in October, with more than half expecting an increase by the end of the year [1] Economic Pressure - The decline in real wages may increase pressure on Prime Minister Kishida to take stronger actions to help households cope with rising living costs [1] - Upcoming GDP data, expected to show weak growth due to inflation suppressing consumption, will be a reference for future Bank of Japan decisions [1] Labor Market Dynamics - Policymakers anticipate continued upward pressure on wages driven by labor shortages [1] - The U.S.-Japan trade policy may pose challenges, as increased import tariffs from the U.S. could erode corporate profits and impact wage growth [1]

Group 1 - Japan's nominal wages in June increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in four months, despite being below economists' expectations of 3.1% [1][3] - The Bank of Japan is considering potential interest rate hikes in the coming months, with over 40% of analysts predicting action in the October policy meeting [3][4] - The strong wage data reflects the results of this year's annual wage negotiations, with approximately 70% of wage increases already implemented by mid-June [3][4] Group 2 - Despite strong nominal wage growth, real wages have declined by 1.3% due to rising inflation, with the core inflation rate reaching 3.3% in June [4][5] - The ongoing inflation is expected to suppress consumer spending, leading to anticipated weak economic growth in the second quarter [4] - Long-term labor shortages are expected to continue exerting upward pressure on wages, although U.S. trade policies pose risks to corporate profit margins and wage growth capabilities [5]