智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，港股对外围风险更敏感，美联储未来降息路径不明，以及港 股12月面临限售股解禁高峰、分子端基本面承压，所以更容易受到流动性的冲击。该行预计潜在反弹时 间点可以关注12月中下旬、明年1月初。技术面，在牛市情况下，恒科跌破120日均线，说明下跌动能释 放已经比较充足，在120~250日均线之间随时有反弹可能性，截至12月9日，距离250日均线只差2.7%。 （原标题：广发证券：如何看待近期港股市场走势偏弱？） 广发证券主要观点如下： 港股市场下跌点评 1.近期港股大幅下跌的原因 因为川普不满鲍威尔降息表述，市场预期下一任联储主席是鸽派的，目前最有可能担任主席的哈赛特， 周一晚间表述：不能提前公布未来六个月利率政策；应该紧盯经济数据，适度、谨慎的下调利率。这和 市场的鸽派预期差异太大，所以外资净流出新兴市场，作为一个验证，可以看到印尼、印度、新兴市场 等跌的较多，而南向是净流入港股的。 2.为什么港股跌最大，并且11月中旬以来加速下跌? 港股基本面看中国内地，流动性看海外。A股涨的是估值，基本面是分化的，顺周期基本面相对较差； 美股涨的是基本面，流动性不好。港股把两样利空因素全 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 港股市场下跌点评 ——市场点评 报告摘要： ⚫ 结论：周一晚间，市场预期的下任美联储主席哈赛特，发表鹰派降息表 述，而港股 12 月面临限售股解禁高峰、分子端基本面承压，所以受到 流动性的冲击更大。潜在反弹时间点关注 12 月中下旬、明年 1 月初。 技术面，在牛市情况下，恒科跌破 120 日均线，说明下跌动能释放已 经比较充足，在 120~250 日均线之间随时有反弹可能性，截至 12 月 9 日，距离 250 日均线只差 2.7%。 ⚫ 昨天港股大幅下跌的原因 因为川普不满鲍威尔降息表述，市场预期下任联储主席偏鸽派，目前最 有可能担任主席的哈赛特，在周一晚间表述：认同鲍威尔的工作，不能 提前公布未来六个月利率政策；应该"紧盯经济数据，适度、谨慎的下 调利率"。这和市场的鸽派预期出现差异，所以外资净流出新兴市场， 作为一个验证，可以看到印尼、印度、新兴市场等跌的较多，而南向是 净流入港股的。 ⚫ 为什么港股跌最大，并且 11 月中旬以来加速下跌？ 港股基本面看中国内地，流动性看海外。A ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, before the interest rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for silver in the short - term, while gold can still be bought on dips [3][4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle. With global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition, the risk of US dollar credit will increase. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, London gold spot decreased by 0.8% to $4180.79 per ounce, London silver spot decreased by 0.6% to $57.97 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.8% to $4208.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 0.7% to $58.40 per ounce. AU2512 decreased by 0.7% to 948.68 yuan per gram, AG2512 decreased by 0.7% to 13600 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 946.73 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 13602 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios on December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.95 yuan per gram (up 6.6%), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 2 yuan per kilogram (down 108.7%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 4.57 yuan per gram (up - 21.7%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 1154 yuan per kilogram (up - 2.1%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 69.76 (up 0.0%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 72.07 (up - 0.1%), AU2602 - 2512 was 2.86 yuan per gram (up - 21.0%), and AG2602 - 2512 (not given on December 9) had a previous value of 15 yuan per kilogram with a change of - 53.3% [4]. 2. Position Data - As of December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11% to 1049.11 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.23% to 15888.54201 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, it increased by 4.91% to 266308 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.19% to 61644 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 15.89% to 204664 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it decreased by 8.12% to 60904 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.32% to 18840 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.38% to 37119 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 91299 kilograms (0.00% change), and SHFE silver inventory increased by 2.65% to 717788 kilograms. On December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.27% to 36213039 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% to 456143022 troy ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.01% to 7.08. The US dollar index increased by 0.12% to 99.10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.28% to 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.72% to 4.17%, the VIX increased by 8.11% to 16.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6846.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.14% to 58.85 [4]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.92% to 951.54 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.68% to 13607 yuan per kilogram [4]. - With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, although the market has largely priced in a 26bp interest rate cut in December, "Fed Chair" Hammond said that Powell may also think that waiting is prudent, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut paths. Coupled with the Bank of Japan's continuous strengthening of the possibility of a December interest - rate hike, market sentiment has become cautious [4].

野村全球外汇策略团队在一份研究报告中表示，市场对日本央行将利率上调至1.00%甚至更高水平的怀 疑态度，似乎正在限制日元的走强。报告指出："尽管日本央行近期暗示可能在12月加息，但日元的升 值压力并未显著增强，美元兑日元仍维持在155以上。"团队成员表示："除非投资者看到日本央行发表 更多鹰派表态、愿意将实际利率从当前的负值进一步拉高，否则他们很难真正建立大规模的日元多头仓 位。" ...

Gold Market - Gold prices are currently in a critical phase, influenced by the decline in U.S. inflation data, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a one-time impact from tariffs, strengthening market pricing for a rate cut [1] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, as indicated by initial jobless claims, which raises expectations for a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a liquidity crisis and put short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Short-term risks for gold prices are noted, but long-term trends suggest that rising U.S. federal debt will weaken the dollar's credibility, likely pushing gold prices higher [1] - Technical indicators show that gold is currently above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $4220 and support at $4140 [1] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. actions against Venezuela, have limited short-term support for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is maintaining its current production policy without plans for an increase in the first quarter of next year, which helps mitigate the risk of oversupply [2] - U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with refinery utilization at 94%, indicating limited room for seasonal demand improvement [2] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of oil prices falling below the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of the $57 support level if downward momentum continues [2] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest there is still room for rate cuts, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Current market data indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, but improvements in ADP data have eased recession concerns, providing some support for the dollar [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of adjustment, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 62-day moving average [5] - Current support is noted at the 49706 level [5] Copper Market - Recent trading in copper has shown small declines, indicating potential short-term downward risks [6] - The market remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 62-day moving average, with support at $5.20 [6] Iraq Oil Production - Iraq has shut down the entire production capacity of the West Qurna 2 oil field due to pipeline leaks, affecting daily output of approximately 460,000 barrels [7] Russian Gold Export Restrictions - Russia plans to limit gold bar exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [8] Bank of Japan's Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates experience sharp fluctuations [9]

12月1日，在日本央行行长植田和男暗示本月晚些时候可能加息后，日本遭遇"股债双杀"。之后日股呈 现回升，截至12月9日发稿，日经225指数已回升至5万点水平，但针对日本长期和超长期国债的抛售仍 在持续。 市场正严阵以待，一方面是关注日本债市波澜是否会引发全球债市抛售潮；另一方面，则聚焦本周美联 储议息会议，若如市场预期，美联储实施降息而日本央行实施加息，则出现"日紧美松"的反向货币政策 表现。届时，日本金融市场是否会出现明显震荡？ 近日，野村日本首席经济学家森田京平在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，在日本央行关于加息的 预告下，市场对日本央行在12月实施加息已有较为充分的预期，预计由加息引发市场大幅震荡的风险有 限，但后续还是要警惕加息后的潜在波动。 日本央行上一次加息还要追溯到今年1月，当时利率从0.25%上调至0.5%，日本借贷成本达到17年来的 最高水平。此后日本央行连续六次按兵不动，但通胀持续"高烧不退"，居民消费价格指数（CPI）连续 50个月上涨。 森田京平预计，日本央行将在今年12月将利率上调至0.75%，之后下一次加息预计在2027年1月实 施，"由于食品和能源领域通胀放缓，届时会使核心消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and declined, still in a range - bound oscillation with different sectors showing divergent trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes both fluctuated downwards, while gold and non - ferrous sectors performed strongly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. The black - goods sector was weak, and the energy - chemical sector oscillated. Overseas, the weak ADP employment data supported the Fed's possible December interest - rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. If Hassett became the next Fed chair, he might support faster rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike. Domestically, in November, the macro - economic climate was stable but declined slightly, and although the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, future domestic demand remained weak. Commodity prices may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and central banks' decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities oscillated and declined, with different sectors showing different trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes declined, while gold and non - ferrous sectors were strong due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation; the black - goods sector was weak because of domestic economic weakness and cooling policy expectations; the energy - chemical sector oscillated due to the intertwining of multiple factors [4]. - **Overseas Situation**: The ADP employment data in November showed a reduction of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. After the data release, traders expected a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The weak data supported a possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to have pre - selected Hassett as the Fed chair, with an over 80% probability according to Kalshi. If elected, Hassett might support faster rate cuts, but he needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, which was earlier than market expectations [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly, and the overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined. Future domestic demand remained weak, but the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting in December [4]. - **Commodity Outlook**: Commodities may maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the intertwining of multiple macro - factors. Uncertainty about the Fed's December rate cut, the Bank of Japan's possible rate hike, weak domestic economic growth, and geopolitical changes may all cause market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to central banks' decisions [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The ADP employment data in November was weak, which supported the Fed's possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to pre - select Hassett as the Fed chair, and if elected, he might support faster rate cuts but needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, earlier than market expectations [4]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly. The overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined, and future domestic demand remained weak. The full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings in December [25]. - **REITs**: In December, the REITs market showed certain trends. In November 2025, there were some changes in the REITs market compared with the previous period [29]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In 2025, there were comparisons of some economic indicators with 2024, such as GDP - related data, showing certain growth and changes in the economic structure [30]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces showed different trends at different times. For example, in December, the operating rates of PTA and POY were 74.1% and 89.00% respectively [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In November and December, the wholesale and retail data of automobile manufacturers showed certain growth rates and changes, such as a 24.29%, 25.61%, and 30.47% increase in some data [48]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In December, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index showed different trends [50].

上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 本周海外市场较为平淡，ADP就业数据进一步走弱，9月PCE数据符合预期，市场充分计价12月降息，风 险偏好温和回升。周中日本央行意外释放加息信号，市场流动性边际紧张，但特朗普强烈暗示哈塞特可能 成为下一任美联储主席，市场对于美联储远期持续释放流动性预期增强，全球流动性仍将维持充裕，日本 加息仅造成短期扰动。不过，美国服务业ISM维持韧性，消费者信心有所改善，美国经济仍未显著恶化， 美联储降息空间有限，未来降息路径仍有博弈空间，风险资产普遍高位震荡，短期缺乏进一步催化，关注 下周美联储利率会议后资金获利了结的风险。 国内市场无论是对即将召开的政治局会议的预期还是对岁末年初稳经济政策如何接力的预期，均比较低， 中日关系紧张态势未消也对市场形成一定的阻力。关注即将召开的政治局会议，未来政策刺激的力度和节 奏将为后续市场表现定调。 全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月8日 二、全球大类资产走势一 ...

| | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 差 基 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4584.54 | ↑0.84 | | 4121.5 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4574.4 | ↑1.02 | -10.14 | 1157.2 | 84754 | ↑21046 | 143296 | ↑6821 | | IF2601 | 4557 | ↑1.03 | -27.54 | 68.1 | 5005 | ↑1297 | 10512 | ↑2041 | | IF2603 | 4535.8 | ↑1.01 | -48.74 | 393.4 | 29046 | ↑8891 | 96429 | ↑5658 | | IF2606 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，市场正日益猜测日本央行将在本月加息，但参与者仍押注日元兑美元将继续走弱。 美国银行、野村控股和加拿大皇家银行资本市场的交易员表示，投资者的仓位布局反映了此类押注。一 项衡量交易员整体仓位的指标花旗集团的日元"痛苦指数"仍远低于零，这表明市场对该货币的悲观情绪 持续存在。 即使在日本央行行长植田和男暗示可能很快加息，且据称央行准备好在12月采取行动(除非经济或金融 市场遭遇重大冲击)之后，投资者依然坚守着看跌押注。其逻辑在于，即便日本央行可能采取行动，日 本的收益率预计仍将大幅低于美国，而这将支撑美元。 "仓位布局仍然倾向于美元兑日元在年底前逐步走高，除非日本央行带来真正的意外冲击，否则这一趋 势难以扭转，"美国银行亚太区G-10货币交易主管伊万·斯塔梅诺维奇(驻香港)表示。他指出，植田的鹰 派言论引发了关于该货币对的讨论，但市场情绪并未发生实质性转变。 日本财务大臣片山皐月(Satsuki Katayama)一直试图遏制日元的疲软走势，但成效有限，日元走势部分原 因是对日本央行加息延迟的猜测助长了这种疲软。即便在本月植田发出迄今为止最明确的即将加息信号 后日元有所上涨，其涨幅也仅为温和。 ...