每经AI快讯，10月3日，日本两年期国债收益率下跌0.5个基点至0.945%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is anticipating a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October, leading to weak demand for the latest issuance of Japanese two-year government bonds, which saw the lowest demand since 2009 [1][3] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the two-year bonds dropped from 3.24 times before the auction to 2.81 times, significantly below the 12-month average of 3.79 times, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The yield on the two-year bonds rose by 1 basis point to 0.935%, marking the highest level since 2008, while the 10-year bond futures also turned from gains to losses [1][3] Group 2 - Two members of the BOJ's policy committee opposed the decision to maintain interest rates at the last meeting, intensifying speculation about an imminent rate hike [3] - Asahi Noguchi, a typically dovish BOJ member, indicated that the necessity to adjust policy rates is increasing, which the market interpreted as a sign that the BOJ is moving closer to a rate hike [3] - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance of 1-5 year bonds in November, while also reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds in upcoming liquidity enhancement tenders [3] Group 3 - The recent two-year bond auction has shown weak performance for the second consecutive time, suggesting that traders expect the BOJ to raise rates in October and are demanding higher yields as compensation for risk [4] - Potential candidates for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership are taking stances that may influence the BOJ's policy decisions, with one candidate emphasizing the need for the central bank to independently determine monetary policy details [4] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from the BOJ's governor and deputy governor, as well as the short-term economic outlook survey, for new clues regarding the monetary policy path [5]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds increased by 0.5 basis points to 0.93% [1]

Group 1 - Japanese two-year government bond prices have fallen, pushing yields to the highest level since 2008, following the trend of U.S. Treasuries ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting [1] - The two-year yield rose by 0.5 basis points to 0.885%, influenced by U.S. employment data that raised doubts about further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Chief strategist Kazuhiko Sano from Tokai Tokyo Securities indicated that the sell-off may also stem from traders betting on a hawkish stance ahead of the press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, despite expectations of a cautious approach [1] Group 2 - The yield increase occurred just before the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with expectations that the central bank will maintain interest rates, while focusing on clues regarding potential actions in September or December [3] - Both short-term and long-term yields have risen due to heightened inflation concerns, as the Japanese government faces pressure to increase spending and reduce taxes [3] - Despite political risks from tariff policy uncertainties and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation announcement, insiders suggest that the Bank of Japan officials believe there may still be a possibility of raising the benchmark rate again this year [3]

Market Overview - The GBP/USD is showing a fluctuating pattern, while the USD/JPY is exhibiting a weak trend. The EUR/USD has potential for upward movement, and the AUD/USD is under significant downward pressure from a trendline. The dollar index is supported by the middle band in the short term [1] Key Economic Insights - Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the policy remains moderately tight and inflation is gradually decreasing. Each meeting is considered "real-time" [2] - Brazil's Finance Minister emphasized that the dollar will continue to be a reserve of value for many years unless the U.S. makes significant mistakes [2] - Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary announced the cancellation of a planned visit to the U.S. by the trade negotiation representative, insisting on lower U.S. tariffs [2] - The Bank of Japan's committee member reiterated the stance on interest rate hikes, noting concerns over tariff impacts [2] - Japan's two-year government bond auction demand hit a new low since 2009 [2] - The Russian Finance Minister projected that Russia's economic growth will not be less than 1.5% by 2025 [3] - The Slovak central bank governor appealed to the Supreme Court regarding a bribery case [4] - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations, and expressed caution regarding potential exchange rate volatility [5] - The Bank of Korea's governor defended foreign exchange interventions aimed at preventing the depreciation of the won, which subsequently strengthened [6] Technical Analysis - GBP/USD is in a delicate balance, likely to fluctuate between 1.3405 and 1.3585. A clear market driver could break this balance and set a new direction [7] - The USD/JPY has a 14-day RSI of 45.967, indicating a neutral to slightly weak state, suggesting a potential for continued fluctuation [7] - The EUR/USD's 14-day RSI has just entered 50, indicating a need to monitor for upward movement, with a bullish flag pattern suggesting a breakout target of 1.2120 if it closes above 1.1740 [7] - The dollar index has key resistance levels at 98.83 and 98.95, with support levels at 98.27 and 97.5877. A drop below 97.54-97.59 could redefine the market structure [8] Upcoming Economic Data - The European Central Bank will release the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting at 19:30 [10] - Canada’s Q2 current account data and U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 will be released at 20:30 [10] - The U.S. will also revise its Q2 annualized GDP rate at 20:30 and report on the July pending home sales index at 22:00 [10] - The EIA natural gas inventory data will be available at 22:30, followed by a speech on monetary policy by Fed Governor Waller at 06:00 the next day [10]

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, significantly lower than the previous auction's 4.47 and the 12-month average of 4.01 [1][4] - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has risen to 0.866%, just a few basis points below the highest level since 2008, reflecting market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing market expectations [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns over rising inflation and expectations of increased government bond issuance following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections have contributed to weak demand for Japanese government bonds [4][5] - The continuous rise in long-term government bond yields is starting to deter foreign investors, who are slowing their purchases of Japanese long-term bonds [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming Tokyo CPI data, which is expected to show strong performance, potentially reinforcing the Bank of Japan's belief that inflation is moving towards sustainable targets [5]

Group 1 - The auction of two-year Japanese government bonds achieved the highest demand level since October last year, indicating a significant increase in investor participation amid rising short-term bond yields [1] - The average bid-to-cover ratio for this auction reached 4.47, higher than last month's 3.90 and the 12-month average of 3.99, reflecting strong demand [1] - The tail price spread narrowed to 0.005, an improvement from the previous auction's 0.012, further indicating robust demand [1] Group 2 - Following the auction, two-year government bond prices rose, leading to a slight decrease in yields by two basis points to 0.82%, contrasting with the overall upward trend in recent short- and long-term bond yields [1] - Market pricing shows that the "risk-neutral yield," which measures future short-term interest rate expectations, has climbed to 0.7%, the highest in nearly four months, aligning with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year has increased from 57% at the beginning of the month to approximately 75% [4] Group 3 - The auction results validate market expectations for monetary policy normalization and reflect investor demand during a rising short-rate cycle [5] - Political uncertainties remain, but the recent trade agreement and clearer expectations for central bank rate hikes are driving the Japanese bond market into a new pricing phase [5]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has increased by 6 basis points to 0.81%, marking the highest level since April 2 [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has increased by 5 basis points to 0.8% [1] - The yield on Japan's five-year government bonds has risen by 8 basis points to 1.1% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has decreased by 0.5 basis points to 0.78% [1]