每经AI快讯，1月8日，日本两年期国债收益率下跌2.5个基点至1.140%。 ...

"市场对日本央行的政策走向仍存诸多疑虑，"三井住友信托资产管理公司资深策略师Katsutoshi Inadome 表示，"这种不确定性或导致投资者对两年期国债持回避态度，毕竟该期限品种受政策变动风险的影响 最为直接。" 对货币政策预期更为敏感的两年期国债收益率，本周早些时候一度攀升至1996年以来的最高水平。与此 同时，反映市场未来通胀预期的关键指标——十年期盈亏平衡通胀率，也在周一升至2004年有数据记录 以来的峰值。 日本两年期国债拍卖需求疲弱，推动该期限国债收益率走高。市场猜测，日本央行或需加大加息力度以 抑制通胀、提振日元汇率。 作为衡量需求的核心指标，本次两年期国债拍卖的投标倍数录得3.26，低于上一期的3.53，也低于12个 月均值3.65。受此影响，两年期国债收益率上行1个基点，报1.11%。此外，十年期国债期货高开后回落 走低。 此次拍卖举行不到一周前，日本央行刚刚将政策利率上调至三十年来的最高水平。行长植田和男在加息 后的讲话中，并未就未来利率路径给出明确指引，此举拖累日元汇率走弱，同时推动国债收益率大幅攀 升。 不过，日本财务大臣片山皋月警告称，对于不符合经济基本面的汇率波动，日本政府"有 ...

日本债券市场的目光正集中在周四的两年期国债拍卖上。在通胀水平走高、市场讨论日本央行是否需要进一步收紧政策的背景下，这次拍卖被视为观察投资 者态度的重要节点。 此次拍卖距离日本央行将政策利率上调至三十年来高位还不到一周。加息之后，行长植田和男在讲话中未对后续紧缩节奏作出明确说明。市场反应较为直 接，日元走弱，国债收益率上行，短端利率波动尤为明显。 两年期国债收益率本周一度升至1996年以来的最高水平，反映出市场对未来政策路径的重新定价。同一时间，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率升至2004年以来高位， 显示中长期通胀预期持续抬升。 策略师Mark Cranfield指出，今年最后一次两年期国债拍卖，可能成为首个收益率高于1%的同期限发行。不过，在央行刚完成加息、政策前景尚不清晰的情 况下，拍卖表现仍存在不确定性。交易员目前仅将下一次25个基点的加息计价至2026年9月。 除货币政策外，国债供给前景同样影响市场判断。投资者关注即将获批的2026财年预算方案。一级交易商建议在下一财年增加两年期、五年期和10年期国债 发行量，同时减少超长期国债发行。 据知情人士透露，覆盖自4月开始年度的预算中，新增国债发行规模预计控制在30万 ...

在市场猜测日本央行可能需要更大幅度加息以遏制通胀并支撑日元之际，投资者正屏息以待周四举行的日本两年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖距离日本央行将政策 利率上调至三十年来高位还不到一周。日本央行行长植田和男在利率决议公布后发表的讲话中未能就未来货币紧缩的时机给出明确指引，导致日元走弱、国 债收益率大幅上行。 对货币政策预期更为敏感的两年期国债收益率本周早些时候升至1996年以来的最高水平。与此同时，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率——衡量市场对未来价格压力预 期的重要指标——也在本周升至自2004年以来的最高水平。 诚然，在日本当局就汇率发出口头警告之后，自本周初以来日元贬值和收益率上升的态势已有所缓和，但此次拍卖仍将成为衡量市场对日本央行政策立场看 法的关键指标。隔夜指数掉期显示，到明年9月之前日本央行再次加息仍存在一定可能性。 Markets Live策略师Mark Cranfield表示："今年最后一次两年期国债拍卖看起来将成为首个收益率高于1%的同期限国债发行，但即便如此，也并不能保证在 日本央行上周加息之后，这次拍卖会表现强劲。""日本央行走到加息这一步经历了曲折的过程。然而，植田和男上周暗示，当央行明年再次试图说服政界人 ...

每经AI快讯，12月5日，日本两年期国债收益率升至1.03%，创2007年8月来最高。 ...

日本两年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平 彭博社提供的数据显示，进入本季度以来，日元对美元汇率已下跌5%。由于日本通胀率持续高于日本 央行2%的既定目标，批评人士认为央行在加息方面行动迟缓。 另一方面，日本财务省计划增发中短期国债，以期为首相高市早苗提出的经济刺激方案筹集资金，包括 将两年期和5年期国债的发行规模各增加3000亿日元（约合19.3亿美元），以及增加国库券发行规模6.3 万亿日元（405亿美元）。 据彭博社报道，11月28日进行的日本两年期国债拍卖需求疲软，表明投资者在加息风险不断增加情况下 态度谨慎。（完）（新华社专特稿） 日本两年期国债对货币政策预期尤为敏感，其收益率当天一度上升2.5个基点至1.015%。5年期和10年期 国债收益率分别上涨至1.382%和1.858%，涨幅至少6.5个基点。 另一方面，日元对美元汇率当天走强，一度上涨至1美元兑换155.4日元。 日本央行行长植田和男1日说，该行将考虑加息利弊并酌情作出决定。三井住友银行首席外汇策略师铃 木博文（音译）说："市场对日本央行加息的预期日益增强。这正在助推日元升值，并对两年期日本国 债收益率构成上行压力。" 美国彭博新闻社 ...

新华社北京12月1日电 日本国债12月1日大跌。受日本中央银行可能即将加息的迹象影响，两年期日本国债收益率12月1日升至2008年以来最高水平。 日本央行行长植田和男1日说，该行将考虑加息利弊并酌情作出决定。三井住友银行首席外汇策略师铃木博文（音译）说："市场对日本央行加息的预期日益 增强。这正在助推日元升值，并对两年期日本国债收益率构成上行压力。" 美国彭博新闻社1日分析，市场对日本央行本月加息的预期有所升温。金融衍生品市场预期日本央行12月19日会议作出加息决定的概率约为80%，而到明年1 月开会前加息概率将升至90%以上。两周前，市场对12月加息的预期仅为30%。 彭博社提供的数据显示，进入本季度以来，日元对美元汇率已下跌5%。由于日本通胀率持续高于日本央行2%的既定目标，批评人士认为央行在加息方面行 动迟缓。 另一方面，日本财务省计划增发中短期国债，以期为首相高市早苗提出的经济刺激方案筹集资金，包括将两年期和5年期国债的发行规模各增加3000亿日元 （约合19.3亿美元），以及增加国库券发行规模6.3万亿日元（405亿美元）。 据彭博社报道，11月28日进行的日本两年期国债拍卖需求疲软，表明投资者在加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has intensified, leading to a decline in demand for Japanese two-year government bonds, as evidenced by lower bid ratios and increased tail spreads in recent auctions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The bid-to-cover ratio for the recent two-year bond auction was 3.53, down from 4.35 in the previous auction and below the 12-month average of 3.66 [1]. - The tail spread for the auction reached 0.012, significantly higher than the previous auction's 0.002, indicating weaker demand [1]. - The yield on two-year government bonds rose to 0.977%, the highest level since 2008, reflecting market reactions to the BOJ's potential policy changes [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above the median forecast of 2.7%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. - Industrial output in October increased by 1.4%, far exceeding market expectations of a 0.6% decline, indicating stronger economic performance [4]. - Early signs from labor negotiations suggest robust wage growth, with Japan's largest labor union aiming for a 5% increase in 2026, supporting the case for further rate hikes [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Officials' Statements - Former BOJ official Kazuo Ueda indicated that the recent depreciation of the yen increases the likelihood of a rate hike in December, suggesting that no significant negative signals are needed to justify such a move [5]. - Political pressure to maintain low interest rates appears to be easing, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration likely to support BOJ's rate normalization efforts [5]. - New BOJ policy committee member Masayoshi Amamiya noted that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, reflecting a shift in the central bank's stance [5]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are cautious ahead of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's upcoming speech, which is anticipated to provide insights into the central bank's interest rate trajectory [6]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, including a projected supplementary budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen for FY2025, are contributing to investor apprehension [6]. - Major dealers are requesting increased issuance of shorter-term bonds while reducing long-term bond issuance, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has decreased by 0.5 basis points to 0.945% as of October 3 [1] Group 1 - Japan's two-year government bond yield is currently at 0.945% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is anticipating a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October, leading to weak demand for the latest issuance of Japanese two-year government bonds, which saw the lowest demand since 2009 [1][3] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the two-year bonds dropped from 3.24 times before the auction to 2.81 times, significantly below the 12-month average of 3.79 times, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The yield on the two-year bonds rose by 1 basis point to 0.935%, marking the highest level since 2008, while the 10-year bond futures also turned from gains to losses [1][3] Group 2 - Two members of the BOJ's policy committee opposed the decision to maintain interest rates at the last meeting, intensifying speculation about an imminent rate hike [3] - Asahi Noguchi, a typically dovish BOJ member, indicated that the necessity to adjust policy rates is increasing, which the market interpreted as a sign that the BOJ is moving closer to a rate hike [3] - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance of 1-5 year bonds in November, while also reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds in upcoming liquidity enhancement tenders [3] Group 3 - The recent two-year bond auction has shown weak performance for the second consecutive time, suggesting that traders expect the BOJ to raise rates in October and are demanding higher yields as compensation for risk [4] - Potential candidates for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership are taking stances that may influence the BOJ's policy decisions, with one candidate emphasizing the need for the central bank to independently determine monetary policy details [4] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from the BOJ's governor and deputy governor, as well as the short-term economic outlook survey, for new clues regarding the monetary policy path [5]