交易员们将密切关注这些事态会否影响对美联储降息或日本央行加息的预期。这两边的前景将影响美元 和日元。彭博美元即期指数于两周前触及2022年以来的最低水平，但后来有所回升。 "美元在今日亚洲交易时段走低，部分原因可能是本周晚些时候美国政府关门的风险很高，"野村新加坡 的全球市场研究主管Robert Subbaraman称。此外，日本即将迎来的一系列事件可能"提高市场对日本央 行10月末加息的预期"，他补充道。 随着投资者对美联储未来降息的预期有所减弱，美元近期反弹。美联储主席鲍威尔最近重申，他认为， 由于劳动力市场和通胀前景面临风险，政策制定者未来的道路可能很艰难，这导致对政策宽松的押注缩 减。编辑/宋祉奇 来源：商业周刊 美元以下跌姿态开启了这个"多事"之周。 彭博美元指数9月29日下跌0.2%，延续了之前的走势。美国政府关门风险临头，两党均在坚持自己的立 场。本周还将公布几份重要的美国经济数据，重中之重是月度就业报告。 日元兑美元涨幅居前，日本将迎来自己的经济数据和央行官员讲话。此外，其执政党10月4日将敲定新 领导人。 ...

交易员正密切关注这些动态是否会影响市场对美联储降息或日本央行加息的预期。无论出现其中一种还 是两种情况，都将对美元和日元走势产生影响。两周前，彭博美元现货指数曾触及2022年以来的最低水 平，但此后已出现反弹。 智通财经APP获悉，美元在关键事件密集的一周伊始遭遇下跌。彭博美元指数周一下跌0.2%，实现连续 两日走低。美国政府停摆风险正不断逼近，两党在立场上均态度强硬、不肯让步。本周还将公布多项美 国关键经济数据，其中压轴登场的是周五发布的月度非农就业报告。 野村证券新加坡有限公司全球市场研究主管罗伯特・苏巴拉曼表示："今日亚洲交易时段美元走软，部 分原因在于本周晚些时候美国政府停摆的高风险。此外，日本即将迎来的一系列事件，也可能'推升市 场对日本央行10月末加息的定价预期'。" 日元在兑美元汇率中领涨，日本本周不仅将公布本国经济数据、举行央行官员讲话，其执政党还将于周 六选出新领导人。 美元近期反弹主要是由于投资者下调了对美联储未来降息的预期。美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔近期重申 其观点，认为由于劳动力市场和通胀前景面临风险，政策制定者前路很可能充满挑战，这一表态导致市 场对政策宽松的押注有所减少。 ...

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index fell by 0.41% to 98.114 points, with a trading range of 98.622 to 97.897 points during the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index decreased by 0.40% to 1203.38 points, with a trading range of 1208.65 to 1201.35 points [1] - The decline in the dollar indices occurred after the release of the U.S. CPI inflation data, which was anticipated to impact market movements [1]

瑞银集团（UBS Group）旗下部门策略师称，美国劳动力市场疲软，以及美联储理事会和劳工统计局 （Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS）的变动，可能给美元和美债带来下行风险。 瑞银投资银行的策略师周三写道，投资者尚未完全消化上周五一系列事件的影响——这些事件始于一份 显示就业增长放缓的就业报告，最终以美联储理事库格勒辞职收尾。 "这些事态的重要性在于，自春季以来，看空美元的传统宏观因素和风险溢价因素首次同时生效，"瓦西 里·瑟雷布里亚科夫（Vassili Serebriakov）、沙哈布·贾利努斯（Shahab Jalinoos）、阿尔维塞·马里诺 （Alvise Marino）和本杰明·贾勒特（Benjamin Jarrett）写道。 他们表示，就在数据显示美国经济放缓之际，对美国机构所受政治压力及其独立性的担忧正不断加剧。 7月非农就业人数不及预期，且前两月数据被下修，促使市场情绪转向预期美联储将在未来会议中降 息。 芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的"美联储观察"数据显示，联邦基金期货交易员目前认为，美联 储在9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为95%，高于一周前的4 ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.19%, reaching 97.394 points at the close in New York on July 24 [1] - The index peaked at 97.523 points during the day before experiencing a brief V-shaped reversal [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.13%, closing at 1194.69 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the ICE Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events on currency movements [1]. Group 1: Currency Index Movements - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.31%, closing at 97.479 points, with a trading range of 96.891 to 97.668 points during the day [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.49%, reaching 1196.61 points, with a trading range of 1189.62 to 1198.36 points [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea by President Trump led to an expansion of gains in both dollar indices, indicating a direct correlation between political decisions and currency valuation [1]. - The initial drop in the indices during the Asia-Pacific trading session was reversed after the tariff news, demonstrating the sensitivity of the markets to U.S. trade policies [1].

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.19%, closing at 98.00 points, with an intraday trading range of 98.365 to 97.685 points, indicating a downward trend in the dollar's value [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.13%, ending at 1200.96 points, with an intraday trading range of 1204.92 to 1197.48 points, reflecting a similar decline in the dollar's strength [1] Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index's decline suggests a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The intraday trading ranges for both indices indicate volatility in the currency market [1] - The performance of the dollar may impact various sectors, including exports and imports, due to its influence on international trade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.03% to 98.811 points, with a trading range of 98.351 to 98.941 points during the day, indicating a V-shaped reversal during the specified time frame [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - ICE Dollar Index Performance - The ICE Dollar Index rose by 0.03% to 98.811 points [1] - The daily trading range was between 98.351 and 98.941 points [1] - A notable V-shaped reversal occurred between 21:00 and 00:00 Beijing time [1] - Bloomberg Dollar Index Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Index decreased by 0.06% to 1208 points [1] - The daily trading range was from 1209.67 to 1204.31 points [1]

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index has decreased by 1.96% this week, closing at 99.114 points on Friday, May 23, indicating a continued downward trend [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has also fallen by 1.73%, reporting a value of 1210.89 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].