每经AI快讯，周一（11月17日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.28%，刷新日高至99.598点。彭博美元指数 涨0.32%，刷新日高至1220.42点，也全天持续走高。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美国国债期货跃升，美元走软。此前ADP Research发布的数据释放美国劳动力市场放缓的信号。美国国 债现货市场因退伍军人节假期休市。ADP数据发布后，10年期美国国债期货上涨。该变幅对应10年期国 债收益率下跌约4个基点。该期限国债收益率周一收于4.12%。货币市场也上调了对美联储降息的押 注，与美联储会期挂钩的互换合约显示，市场预期下个月降息的可能性超过60%。对降息的预期升温导 致彭博美元指数大幅下跌，触及本月最低点，而欧元和日元兑美元均升至盘中高点。周二公布的数 据"与劳动力市场已趋稳定的观点相悖"，T. Rowe Price首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci对Bloomberg Surveillance表示，"我们正在密切予以关注，但同时也意识到10月数据有很多干扰因素，而且会受到政 府停摆的影响。" ...

每经AI快讯，周一(11月10日)纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.01%，报99.591点。彭博美元指数跌0.06%， 报1218.67点。 ...

Core Points - The US dollar is experiencing a decline as the week begins, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on September 29, continuing its previous trend [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown looms, with both parties maintaining their positions, while important economic data, particularly the monthly employment report, is set to be released this week [1] - The Japanese yen is appreciating against the dollar, with upcoming economic data and central bank officials' speeches expected to influence market expectations regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index reached its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] - Traders are closely monitoring whether the developments in the US and Japan will affect expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to a decrease in expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Chairman Powell indicated challenges ahead due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook [1]

Core Points - The US dollar has experienced a decline at the start of a week filled with key events, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on Monday, marking two consecutive days of decline [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with both parties maintaining a hardline stance and unwilling to compromise [1] - Key US economic data will be released this week, culminating in the monthly non-farm payroll report on Friday [1] - The Japanese yen is leading gains against the US dollar, with Japan set to release economic data and hold central bank official speeches, alongside the ruling party's election of new leadership on Saturday [1] - Traders are closely monitoring these developments for their potential impact on market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts or Bank of Japan rate hikes, which would influence the movements of both the dollar and yen [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index had previously hit its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] Market Insights - According to Robert Subramaniam, head of global market research at Nomura Singapore, the dollar's weakness during Asian trading hours is partly due to the high risk of a US government shutdown later this week [3] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to investors lowering their expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the path ahead for policymakers is likely to be challenging due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook, leading to reduced bets on policy easing [3]

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index fell by 0.41% to 98.114 points, with a trading range of 98.622 to 97.897 points during the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index decreased by 0.40% to 1203.38 points, with a trading range of 1208.65 to 1201.35 points [1] - The decline in the dollar indices occurred after the release of the U.S. CPI inflation data, which was anticipated to impact market movements [1]

Group 1 - UBS Group strategists indicate that a weak U.S. labor market and changes in the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics may pose downside risks to the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds [1] - The employment report showing a slowdown in job growth and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official have led to a shift in market sentiment towards expectations of interest rate cuts in future meetings [1] - Concerns about political pressure on U.S. institutions and their independence are increasing as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down [1] Group 2 - CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 48% a week prior, with expectations of a total cut of 62 basis points this year [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the call for rate cuts, suggesting the Fed may need to lower rates in the short term to address the economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - Weak employment data has led to President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates [3] - Concerns about the quality and credibility of U.S. economic data could negatively impact the perception of U.S. assets and expose them to currency risk [3] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which has already fallen 8% this year, may decline further under these risks, while currencies like the euro and yen are expected to rise [3]

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.19%, reaching 97.394 points at the close in New York on July 24 [1] - The index peaked at 97.523 points during the day before experiencing a brief V-shaped reversal [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.13%, closing at 1194.69 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the ICE Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events on currency movements [1]. Group 1: Currency Index Movements - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.31%, closing at 97.479 points, with a trading range of 96.891 to 97.668 points during the day [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.49%, reaching 1196.61 points, with a trading range of 1189.62 to 1198.36 points [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea by President Trump led to an expansion of gains in both dollar indices, indicating a direct correlation between political decisions and currency valuation [1]. - The initial drop in the indices during the Asia-Pacific trading session was reversed after the tariff news, demonstrating the sensitivity of the markets to U.S. trade policies [1].

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.19%, closing at 98.00 points, with an intraday trading range of 98.365 to 97.685 points, indicating a downward trend in the dollar's value [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.13%, ending at 1200.96 points, with an intraday trading range of 1204.92 to 1197.48 points, reflecting a similar decline in the dollar's strength [1] Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index's decline suggests a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The intraday trading ranges for both indices indicate volatility in the currency market [1] - The performance of the dollar may impact various sectors, including exports and imports, due to its influence on international trade [1]