Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing the promotion of high-end product innovation and quality improvement in the nonferrous metal sector [1] Group 1: High-End Product Development - The plan focuses on driving breakthroughs in high-quality raw materials such as ultra-pure metals, copper alloy integrated materials, precious metal functional materials, and high-end rare earth new materials, in response to the demands of key industries like new generation information technology and new energy vehicles [1] - It aims to enhance the comprehensive performance of aluminum and magnesium alloy structural materials, as well as hard alloys and products [1] Group 2: Quality Improvement Initiatives - The implementation of the "Excellent Quality Engineering in Manufacturing" initiative is highlighted, which guides enterprises to improve product quality and create new demand through high-quality supply [1] - The plan includes the execution of the "New Material Pilot Platform Construction Guidelines (2024-2027)", supporting the establishment of pilot platforms for new materials and low-carbon smelting processes in the nonferrous metal industry [1] Group 3: Application and Verification Support - The plan emphasizes leveraging key new material platforms to support enterprises in carrying out comprehensive application plans, accelerating material application verification and iterative upgrades [1]

Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - The implementation of the US copper "232" tariffs has caused significant market reactions, but industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term copper market, citing ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and sustained demand from the energy transition [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, a component of the leading non-ferrous metal ETF, report minimal impact from the tariff changes due to their global sales and exemption status for their copper products [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Recent US economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, alongside rising geopolitical tensions that have increased safe-haven demand, leading to a continuous rise in gold prices [1] - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may rise due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs, potentially reaching new historical highs by late 2025 [1][3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a surge in investment interest, driven by several factors including government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, positive earnings forecasts from listed companies, and a significant year-to-date price increase of 24.91% in the sector [4] - As of July 31, 2025, over 80% of companies in the non-ferrous metals index have reported positive profit forecasts, indicating strong operational resilience [4] Group 4: ETF Performance and Composition - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has seen a net inflow of 1.2 million units, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1] - The ETF's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment approach [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that a stable growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry is about to be introduced, which is expected to accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure [6][7] - The report highlights that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to implement high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on both supply and demand to promote consumption upgrades and cultivate new consumption markets [6] - The report suggests that the implementation of these policies is likely to improve the supply-side capacity structure, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand interactions [6] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index closed at 5730.54 points, up 2.0% month-on-month [10] - The precious metals index rose 1.6%, while the industrial metals index increased by 1.0% [10] Precious Metals - Gold - The report notes that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term [6] - As of July 18, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.44% to $3355.5 per ounce, while global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year [6] Industrial Metals - Copper - As of July 18, LME copper futures rose 1.4% to $9794.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 143,300 tons, a decrease of 400 tons [6] - The report anticipates that copper prices will benefit from macroeconomic and fundamental resonance, with a medium-term upward trend expected [6] Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of July 18, LME aluminum futures increased by 1.4% to $2638 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons [6] - The report expects aluminum prices to rise further due to a strong demand-supply imbalance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Aluminum [7][6]