中国宏桥(1378.HK)一度涨4.09%至28.02港元，股价创历史新高，年内累涨160.89%，市值约2669亿港元。 板块上，工信部等八部门近日印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，提出了2025—2026年的主要目标：有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左 右，经济效益保持向好态势，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。相关人士解读表示，我国有色金属行业快 速发展，但资源保障能力不足等问题凸显，本次《方案》旨在提升产业链供应链水平。 个股方面，中国宏桥持续回购公司股份，10月8日再度耗资233.71万港元回购8.85万股，回购价格每股26.12-26.58港元。杰富瑞曾表示，除了2025年上半年已 回购的26亿港元外，中国宏桥还计划进行至少30亿港元的股票回购，并且年度股息达到60%以上，这进一步彰显了管理层对公司业绩的信心。 此外，中信建投证券认为，美国政府关门扰动、未来降息和衰退的预期使得全球投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧进一步上升，这推动了金银等贵金 属和比特币价格进一步走高。建议关注金银铜等有色板块投资机遇。(格隆汇) 重要股东增减持 ...

Group 1 - Copper stocks are rising against the trend, with notable increases in companies such as China Gold International (+6.76%), Jiangxi Copper (+5.23%), and Zijin Mining (+2.68%) [1] - The mudslide incident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to tighter copper supply, with mining operations suspended since September 8, 2023, and significant production delays expected in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the issue of "involution" in copper smelting and has submitted recommendations to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a "Growth Stabilization Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", providing direction for the industry's future development [2] - Analysts believe that the copper market will continue to show strong performance in the fourth quarter due to supply-side disruptions and favorable macroeconomic conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.87% to close at 26,855.56 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 314.93 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 7.09% for the month, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 6.79% and 13.95%, respectively [1] Investment Insights - According to China Merchants Securities International, the short-term volatility in the Hong Kong market is expected, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, with a focus on AI technology and non-ferrous metals as key investment themes [1] - Everbright Securities noted that despite the continuous rise in the Hong Kong market over recent months, overall valuations remain low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for long-term investments [1] Blue-Chip Performance - Kuaishou Technology (01024) reached a three-year high, closing up 7.22% at HKD 84.6, contributing 26.93 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - WuXi AppTec (02359) rose by 8.11% to HKD 118.7, contributing 6.26 points, while Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased by 5.6% to HKD 90.45, contributing 5.37 points [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a collective rise, with Kuaishou up over 7%, Bilibili up over 6%, and Alibaba and NetEase both up over 2% [3] - Semiconductor stocks performed strongly, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising nearly 11% to HKD 80 [3] - The pharmaceutical sector continued its upward trend, with WuXi AppTec up over 8% [3] AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek announced the release of its new language model, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which significantly reduces service costs by over 50% for developers [4][5] - The AI application sector is gaining traction, with companies like Huya Technology (01860) rising by 10.25% [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector remains strong, with WuXi AppTec and other companies like HAPO (02142) and Zai Lab (09688) showing significant gains [5] - The impact of potential tariffs on patented drugs by the U.S. is considered limited for China's innovative drug industry [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is active, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) rising by 8.85% to HKD 30.5, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up by 8.66% to HKD 43.14 [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aims for an average annual growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026 [7] Airline Sector Performance - Major airlines saw collective gains, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 6.73% to HKD 3.33 [7] - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have surpassed 10.19 million, indicating strong demand [8] Notable Stock Movements - MicroPort Medical (00853) rose by 5.27% following the announcement of a restructuring in its cardiac management business [9] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls (02050) increased by 6.62% as Tesla plans to expand its humanoid robot production [10] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) saw an 8.98% rise, attributed to significant new orders and a positive outlook from Morgan Stanley [11] New IPO Highlights - Xipuni (02583) surged by 258.11% on its debut, closing at HKD 106, focusing on gold watch design and manufacturing [12] - Zijin Gold International (02259) rose by 68.46% to HKD 120.6, marking the second-largest IPO in Hong Kong this year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the metal, storage chip, and AI application sectors, indicating a bullish market trend and potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4][10]. Group 1: Metal Sector - The metal sector experienced a significant rally, with major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Jiangxi Copper, and Northern Rare Earth seeing substantial stock price increases [3][6]. - Key drivers for the metal sector include a recent policy announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, projecting an average annual growth of 5% in the value added by the non-ferrous metal industry from 2025 to 2026, and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has led to expectations of a new round of monetary easing, further supporting the metal sector [8][9]. Group 2: Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector saw explosive growth, with companies like Jiangbolong and Demingli experiencing significant stock price increases, and the semiconductor industry also showing strength with Huahong and Lanjitech reaching historical highs [3][4]. - The overall market saw a half-day trading volume of approximately 1.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 761 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4]. Group 3: AI Application Sector - The AI application sector showed active performance, with stocks like Danghong Technology and Yidian Tianxia experiencing notable gains [10][11]. - Recent developments in AI technology, such as the release of new models by DeepSeek and Anthropic, are expected to enhance the capabilities and efficiency of AI applications, potentially driving further investment in this sector [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1% during the morning session [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3878.13 points, up 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.31% and the ChiNext index increased by 0.06% [1] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 763 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] - A total of 2977 stocks rose, with 48 hitting the daily limit up, while 2331 stocks declined [4] Sector Performance - The technology sector experienced broad gains, particularly in the semiconductor and storage chip segments, with the storage index rising by 5.81% [5][7] - Notable stocks included Jiangbolong, which hit the daily limit up with a 20% increase, and Huahong Semiconductor, which rose by 15.16% [7][12] Battery and Materials Sector - The battery sector continued its upward trend, with significant gains in lithium battery components, including lithium electrolyte and lithium iron phosphate batteries [15] - Stocks such as Shida Shenghua and Tianji Shares saw daily limit increases of 10% [16] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with cobalt and nickel indices rising over 4% [18] - Key performers included Huayou Cobalt, which increased by over 7%, and Shengtun Mining, which rose by 9.7% [20][21] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also saw gains, with gold prices reaching 3860 USD per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 100 USD this week [22][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the A-share market for the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in various companies following the release of a new growth plan for the industry [1] - On September 28, eight departments issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for improved resource development in copper, aluminum, and lithium, with a target of exceeding 20 million tons in recycled metal production and enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - Platinum Technology Materials up 14.55% with a market cap of 24.9 billion [2] - Huaxi Nonferrous up 10.01% with a market cap of 21.4 billion [2] - Boji New Materials up 10% with a market cap of 17.1 billion [2] - Other companies such as Xiyang Co., Jiangxi Copper, and Huayou Cobalt also saw significant increases, with gains ranging from 5% to over 8% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by the MACD golden cross signal formation, indicating a favorable trend for these stocks [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend on September 29, with all three major indices rising collectively, indicating positive market sentiment and sector performance [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.74% [2] - Key sectors leading the gains included energy metals, securities, and battery sectors, all of which saw increases exceeding 4% [2] Sector Highlights - The energy metals sector (881267.TI) rose by 4.92%, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Boqian New Materials [2] - Notable performers in the energy metals sector included Ganfeng Lithium, Yuanhang Precision, Hanrui Cobalt, Huayou Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt, all of which increased by over 5% [2] - Other stocks such as Yongxing Materials, Rongjie Shares, and Yongshan Lithium also experienced significant gains [2] Policy Impact - On September 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [2] - The plan aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in the added value of the nonferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, with a positive economic outlook [2] - It also targets an average annual growth of approximately 1.5% in the production of ten types of nonferrous metals [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened higher in the morning and fluctuated throughout the day with little change in open interest. After Freeport's copper mine production cut announcement on September 24, copper prices rose with increasing positions and market attention. Downstream industries showed low acceptance of the sharp price increase, and domestic pre - holiday stockpiling ended, leading to a weaker spot premium, which suppressed copper prices. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays in China, overseas market volatility risks should be noted [4]. - **沪铝**: Traded strongly with a slight decline in open interest. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded but with weak momentum. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support. With a loose macro - environment and an improved supply - demand balance in the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise [5]. - **沪镍**: Traded in a range with a decline in open interest. The sector effect driven by copper prices faded, and nickel prices dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. The long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown in port nickel ore inventory accumulation and the reduction of SHFE nickel inventory provided support. With the overall decline of non - ferrous metals in the short term, technical support at the late - September low should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 28, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)". The plan aims to promote project construction in an orderly manner, avoid low - level redundant construction, and improve investment efficiency. It also emphasizes strengthening resource exploration and utilization, including implementing a new round of ore - finding breakthrough strategies, improving resource recovery and utilization rates, and promoting the comprehensive utilization of recycled resources [8][9]. - **Nickel**: Reuters analysis pointed out a serious disconnect in the key minerals market. Despite the expected surge in long - term demand for energy transition, the current situation is one of oversupply and weak prices. New capacity investments, especially in Indonesia, have led to a significant oversupply of nickel. As of September 29, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,700 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spreads, domestic and overseas exchange inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spreads, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][40].