证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 02 日 上期有色金属指数解析：期货指数 与股票指数有何差异？ 相关研究 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 有色金属景气回升，政策驱动行业稳增长。2025/8/28，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有 色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，系列举措将有效改善行业供需结构、 提升产业韧性，为有色金属行业景气度回升注入强劲动力。 ⚫ 工业有色金属的供需维持紧平衡，价格易涨难跌。结合库存数据与行业周期来看，当前 LME 铜、铝、锡的全球库存整体仍处于低位，机器人、新能源汽车以及新能源装机等新 兴产业的快速发展，正在同步推升铜、铝等工业有色金属的需求；而供给端方面，近几年 全球铜矿开采量增速出现放缓，全球铝的产能也已经达到高位，新增产能受限，因此，未 来铜、铝等工业有色 ...

2025年9月发布的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》是行业发展的重要指南。中国有 色金属工业协会重金属部主任段绍甫认为，为落实《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》 提出的"质的有效提升"，需要强化资源保障，构建多元化供给体系。一方面推进国内资源开发。国家组 织实施了新一轮找矿突破战略行动，要稳步提升国内矿产自给率。另一方面大力发展再生金属利用。加 快推进有色金属再生资源相关产业政策修订，扩大和规范再生资源进口；推广先进有色金属再生处理技 术，特别是高效清洁回收技术；完善再生有色金属标准体系，打通高品质再生金属进入高端应用领域的 渠道。 2025年，有色金属大宗商品价格上涨明显。对于备受关注的有色金属价格走势，中国有色金属工业协会 政策研究室主任林如海表示，2026年，有色金属市场将呈现"结构分化、波动加剧"的整体格局，价格中 枢有望进一步上移。国内外多种因素将为2026年有色金属价格提供有力支撑。但是，市场也需警惕海外 宏观政策转向、供需预期差导致的行情反复，以及主产区政策变动、资金获利了结带来的波动加剧这些 风险。下一步，将密切跟踪市场动态，加强行业引导，推动上下游协 ...

中国正在探索将铜精矿这一上游原料纳入国家战略储备体系，这标志着在铜产业链安全保障上，政策思 路正从单一储备精炼铜向多层次、多品种储备转变。 2月3日，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究 将贸易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围。同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备 机制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。 这一表态释放了明确的政策信号。铜是关系国计民生和国民经济发展的战略资源，中国作为全球最大的 精炼铜消费国和生产国，铜矿资源相对匮乏且对海外进口依赖较高。铜精矿加工费自2023年三季度起经 历下跌，2025年长单加工费仍处于历史低位，国内高成本冶炼厂面临持续减产压力。 分析认为，将铜精矿纳入储备范围，意味着中国在保障铜产业链供应安全上采取更前置的防御措施。这 不仅有助于增强原料端的议价能力，也为国内冶炼企业提供更稳定的原料供应保障，对稳定产业链运行 具有积极意义。 生产方面，将继续平稳运行，预计有色金属工业增加值同比增长5%左右。根据有色金属生 产特点和产能建设情况，2026年十种常用有色金属产量同比增长2%左右。 价格方面，2026年 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2724 yuan, up 26 yuan, with a gain of 0.96% [1] - Total trading volume for 18 contracts was 511,796 lots, a decrease of 120,562 lots or 19.07% from the previous trading day [1] - Open interest increased by 7,615 lots to 716,812 lots, reflecting a rise of 1.07% [1] Group 2: Domestic Prices - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: - South China: 2690-2740 yuan per ton - East China: 2600-2640 yuan per ton - Southwest: 2725-2765 yuan per ton - Northwest: 2870-2890 yuan per ton All prices were unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Group 3: Macro Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, while initial jobless claims slightly increased to 200,000, indicating a stable economic outlook that boosts investor confidence [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's continued accommodative policies are expected to support non-ferrous metal prices [2] - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, released a growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting a 1.5% production growth rate while emphasizing energy consumption and environmental constraints [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Rio Tinto plans to reduce production at its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting in October to extend the facility's operational life until 2035, which is expected to support alumina futures prices [3] - Domestic bauxite supply is anticipated to increase due to the resumption of production in northern regions and expectations of new mines coming online [3] - The cost of caustic soda is declining, which weakens cost support for alumina [3] - The overall market remains characterized by oversupply, with limited demand growth from electrolytic aluminum production due to capacity constraints [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department has issued a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, targeting a 5% increase in the industry's added value by 2026, with specific production and revenue goals for copper and aluminum sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Main Goals - By 2026, the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry in Shandong is expected to grow by approximately 5%, with cathode copper production reaching around 1.7 million tons, a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - Copper processing product output is projected to reach about 600,000 tons, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [1] - The total output value of the copper industry is anticipated to exceed 200 billion yuan, with leading levels in comprehensive energy consumption and recovery rates [1] - The aluminum industry is expected to achieve revenues exceeding 660 billion yuan, with over 35% of electrolytic aluminum production meeting benchmark energy efficiency standards [1] Group 2: Key Tasks - Establish a diversified recycling resource system, focusing on creating copper and aluminum recycling bases and enhancing recycling efficiency through platforms [2] - Strengthen overseas resource cooperation by signing long-term procurement agreements for copper and aluminum ores with countries like Chile and Guinea [2] - Develop specialized industrial clusters for copper and aluminum, enhancing competitiveness through high-end manufacturing and technological advancements [3] - Promote the extension of the industrial chain in both copper and aluminum sectors, focusing on high-end applications in renewable energy and electronics [4] Group 3: Innovation and Sustainability - Build collaborative innovation platforms to accelerate the transformation of scientific research into industrial applications, particularly in new materials [4] - Focus on overcoming technological bottlenecks in high-end materials and promote the use of AI in the non-ferrous metal industry to enhance production efficiency [4] - Implement green transformation initiatives to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the copper and aluminum industries [5] - Accelerate digital upgrades in the industry, fostering smart factories and digital workshops to improve operational efficiency [5] Group 4: Market Expansion - Promote the upgrade of bulk consumption in sectors like new energy vehicles and aerospace, ensuring the supply of high-performance copper and aluminum products [6] - Cultivate emerging consumer markets by expanding the use of aluminum in public facilities and packaging [6] - Encourage the export of high-end processed copper and aluminum products, supporting companies in entering international markets [6][7] Group 5: Support Measures - The provincial government will coordinate efforts across departments to implement the outlined tasks, ensuring financial support for equipment upgrades and technological improvements [7] - Utilize special long-term bonds and insurance policies to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly highlighted by the significant increase in the Huabao ETF [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 22, the A-share major indices collectively rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the highest gains, particularly the Huabao ETF which saw a jump of 2.15% [1][10]. - The Huabao ETF's current price is close to its listing high of 0.958 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1][10]. Group 2: Sector Leaders - In the non-ferrous metals sector, leading companies such as Hailiang Co. and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals surged over 6%, while Zijin Mining rose more than 4% [3][12]. - Gold sector leaders including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold also saw increases exceeding 3% [3][12]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a clear trend of upstream strength over midstream and downstream, driven by rising commodity prices and structural growth in downstream demand [5][14]. - In the first three quarters, 141 listed companies in the non-ferrous sector achieved a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with net profit increasing by 41.55% to 151.29 billion yuan [5][14]. Group 4: Policy Outlook - The policy direction for the non-ferrous metals industry emphasizes high-quality development, with a target of an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output by 2026 [5][14]. - The "Stable Growth" initiative is a key focus, with plans for the production of ten types of non-ferrous metals to grow by 1.5% annually and recycled metal production to exceed 20 million tons [5][14]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that non-ferrous and precious metals will be at the forefront of the upward trend in 2026, with gold prices potentially challenging the historical high of $5,000 per ounce [5][14]. - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will continue to rise in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF, which covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, is recommended to mitigate risks [7][15]. - This strategy allows investors to capture the overall sector performance while reducing exposure to individual metal price fluctuations [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a historical high of 28.02 HKD, with a year-to-date gain of 160.89% and a market capitalization of approximately 266.9 billion HKD [1] Company Summary - China Hongqiao has been actively repurchasing its shares, spending 2.3371 million HKD to buy back 88,500 shares on October 8, with repurchase prices ranging from 26.12 to 26.58 HKD per share [1] - Jefferies has indicated that, in addition to the 2.6 billion HKD already repurchased in the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao plans to conduct at least 3 billion HKD in stock buybacks, with an annual dividend yield exceeding 60%, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance [1] - Recent buyback activities show that the cumulative number of shares repurchased in the latest round is 15.4 million, accounting for 1.64% of the total share capital [6][8] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments have issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the value added of the nonferrous metals industry and a 1.5% annual increase in the production of ten major nonferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The plan highlights the rapid development of China's nonferrous metals industry while addressing issues such as insufficient resource security, aiming to enhance the level of the industrial and supply chain [1] - CITIC Securities suggests that concerns over U.S. government shutdowns, potential interest rate cuts, and recession expectations are driving global investor worries about U.S. dollar credit and sovereign debt, which in turn is boosting prices of precious metals like gold and silver, as well as Bitcoin, indicating investment opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks are rising against the trend, with notable increases in companies such as China Gold International (+6.76%), Jiangxi Copper (+5.23%), and Zijin Mining (+2.68%) [1] - The mudslide incident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to tighter copper supply, with mining operations suspended since September 8, 2023, and significant production delays expected in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the issue of "involution" in copper smelting and has submitted recommendations to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a "Growth Stabilization Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", providing direction for the industry's future development [2] - Analysts believe that the copper market will continue to show strong performance in the fourth quarter due to supply-side disruptions and favorable macroeconomic conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.87% to close at 26,855.56 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 314.93 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 7.09% for the month, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 6.79% and 13.95%, respectively [1] Investment Insights - According to China Merchants Securities International, the short-term volatility in the Hong Kong market is expected, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, with a focus on AI technology and non-ferrous metals as key investment themes [1] - Everbright Securities noted that despite the continuous rise in the Hong Kong market over recent months, overall valuations remain low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for long-term investments [1] Blue-Chip Performance - Kuaishou Technology (01024) reached a three-year high, closing up 7.22% at HKD 84.6, contributing 26.93 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - WuXi AppTec (02359) rose by 8.11% to HKD 118.7, contributing 6.26 points, while Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased by 5.6% to HKD 90.45, contributing 5.37 points [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a collective rise, with Kuaishou up over 7%, Bilibili up over 6%, and Alibaba and NetEase both up over 2% [3] - Semiconductor stocks performed strongly, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising nearly 11% to HKD 80 [3] - The pharmaceutical sector continued its upward trend, with WuXi AppTec up over 8% [3] AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek announced the release of its new language model, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which significantly reduces service costs by over 50% for developers [4][5] - The AI application sector is gaining traction, with companies like Huya Technology (01860) rising by 10.25% [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector remains strong, with WuXi AppTec and other companies like HAPO (02142) and Zai Lab (09688) showing significant gains [5] - The impact of potential tariffs on patented drugs by the U.S. is considered limited for China's innovative drug industry [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is active, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) rising by 8.85% to HKD 30.5, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up by 8.66% to HKD 43.14 [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aims for an average annual growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026 [7] Airline Sector Performance - Major airlines saw collective gains, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 6.73% to HKD 3.33 [7] - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have surpassed 10.19 million, indicating strong demand [8] Notable Stock Movements - MicroPort Medical (00853) rose by 5.27% following the announcement of a restructuring in its cardiac management business [9] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls (02050) increased by 6.62% as Tesla plans to expand its humanoid robot production [10] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) saw an 8.98% rise, attributed to significant new orders and a positive outlook from Morgan Stanley [11] New IPO Highlights - Xipuni (02583) surged by 258.11% on its debut, closing at HKD 106, focusing on gold watch design and manufacturing [12] - Zijin Gold International (02259) rose by 68.46% to HKD 120.6, marking the second-largest IPO in Hong Kong this year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the metal, storage chip, and AI application sectors, indicating a bullish market trend and potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4][10]. Group 1: Metal Sector - The metal sector experienced a significant rally, with major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Jiangxi Copper, and Northern Rare Earth seeing substantial stock price increases [3][6]. - Key drivers for the metal sector include a recent policy announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, projecting an average annual growth of 5% in the value added by the non-ferrous metal industry from 2025 to 2026, and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has led to expectations of a new round of monetary easing, further supporting the metal sector [8][9]. Group 2: Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector saw explosive growth, with companies like Jiangbolong and Demingli experiencing significant stock price increases, and the semiconductor industry also showing strength with Huahong and Lanjitech reaching historical highs [3][4]. - The overall market saw a half-day trading volume of approximately 1.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 761 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4]. Group 3: AI Application Sector - The AI application sector showed active performance, with stocks like Danghong Technology and Yidian Tianxia experiencing notable gains [10][11]. - Recent developments in AI technology, such as the release of new models by DeepSeek and Anthropic, are expected to enhance the capabilities and efficiency of AI applications, potentially driving further investment in this sector [13].