Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The focus on ensuring the delivery of homes has made the sale of completed properties a key task, leading to accelerated promotion of this sales model in 2023. Central and local governments are progressively implementing pilot programs for completed property sales, with a high likelihood of gradual implementation and supportive policies [2][7] - The transition to completed property sales is expected to decrease project turnover rates and pressure profit margins, resulting in a significant short-term decline in sales scale for real estate companies. Maintaining sales scale will require additional financing, leading to a substantial reduction in the industry's financial attributes and an increase in manufacturing attributes. This shift will demand higher capabilities in land assessment and product quality from companies, benefiting those with the ability to generate excess cash flow and potentially increasing industry concentration [10] Policy Path - The policy path for completed property sales has evolved from suppressing overheating to preventing risks. The transition has been marked by pilot programs in various cities since 2014, which were largely paused except for Hainan. With the emphasis on ensuring home delivery, completed property sales are being accelerated again in 2023, with conditions set for their implementation [7][21] Project Analysis - Transitioning from pre-sale to completed sale models can significantly impact financial metrics. For instance, net profit margins may drop from 11.4% to 8.6%, and the internal rate of return (IRR) could decrease from 17.3% to 6.4%. The time to achieve positive cash flow may extend from 20 months to 34 months under the completed sales model [8][9] - The impact of completed sales is less severe in scenarios with higher land-to-value ratios or stricter pre-sale conditions. For example, if the land-to-value ratio increases from 1.8 to 2.0, the net profit margin and IRR would be less affected [9][10] Potential Impacts - The implementation of completed property sales is expected to lead to a decline in sales scale for real estate companies, with new land acquisitions unable to generate supply, relying instead on historical inventory. This will necessitate more financing to maintain sales levels in the medium to long term. Cities with lower inventory levels will be more affected, while those with higher inventory may transition more smoothly [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy from the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Xinyang, Henan Province, mandates that all newly developed commercial housing must be sold as completed properties, reigniting discussions on the implications and challenges of "existing house sales" in the real estate market [1][2]. Policy Developments - Existing house sales refer to the sale of properties that have been completed and meet legal delivery conditions, allowing buyers to occupy and register ownership immediately after the transaction [1]. - Since the end of 2022, various regions in China have been implementing policies to promote existing house sales, with notable examples in Anhui and Hubei where pilot projects have seen high sales rates [2]. - Xinyang's new policy is the first to comprehensively implement existing house sales in a city, distinguishing between new and old projects regarding pre-sale permissions [2]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards existing house sales is driven by the need to mitigate risks, reduce inventory, and control supply in the real estate market [2][4]. - The proportion of existing house sales in new housing has been steadily increasing, reaching 36% in the first quarter of this year [5]. - The transition to existing house sales is seen as a necessary evolution towards a more mature and stable real estate market that prioritizes risk control and buyer protection [3][6]. Industry Implications - Existing house sales require developers to invest fully in projects before recovering funds, increasing financial and time costs compared to pre-sale models [3]. - The focus on existing house sales is expected to enhance product quality as developers strive to attract buyers, thereby improving overall market standards [4]. - The current trend indicates a gradual coexistence of existing and pre-sale models, with existing house sales likely to dominate in the future [6][7]. Global Context - The global real estate market exhibits diverse sales models, with a common trend towards stricter regulation of pre-sale activities and enhanced buyer protection [7]. - The evolution of the real estate market in China reflects a broader movement towards ensuring safer transactions and better meeting housing demands through improved regulatory frameworks [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on fundamental improvements and valuation levels [4]. Core Insights - Recent market focus has shifted towards new real estate development models, particularly regarding current housing sales and loan management policies, which are expected to be implemented gradually rather than through a one-size-fits-all approach [2][3]. - The current valuation levels of major real estate companies are approaching the pre-rebound levels seen in April and September of the previous year, suggesting that the sector may be entering an investment zone [6][12]. - The adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, while the average adjusted PB for the top five companies in terms of sales is around 0.7, further supporting the notion that the sector's investment attributes are becoming more pronounced [8][12]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The focus on current housing sales and loan management policies has led to a cautious sentiment among investors, which is reflected in stock prices [2]. - The gradual implementation of policies is expected to enhance the competitive landscape for high-quality companies within the industry, thereby increasing entry barriers [3]. Valuation Analysis - The current PB levels for major real estate firms are near the lower bounds of the past five years, indicating a potential for upward valuation adjustments [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that investments should be made when valuations are within a reasonable range, highlighting the increasing value of the real estate sector as it approaches these levels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a strong track record of cash flow generation and stable performance, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Development, as well as those with high dividend yields and stable earnings like China Resources Land [13]. - The potential for valuation recovery exists for companies like Gemdale and Longfor Group, especially as market volatility decreases and interest rates stabilize [13].

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨专题报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 现房销售的海南经验 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 海南 2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"，至今已超过 5 年，是观察现房销售影响的一个参照系。得 益于库存充足和市场上行，现房制度对海南市场的短期影响相对可控；微观层面，执行现房销 售使得开盘周期延长一年甚至以上，明显降低资金周转效率；尽管现房销售拖累周转速度，但 通过地价让利和其他配套支持，项目在利润率层面获得补偿。边际角度，高地价、严预售的城 市受影响更小，以及具备融资和产品优势的房企更具备抵抗力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 现房销售的海南经验 [Table_Summary2] 海南执行现房销售已超过五年 海南 2018 年 4 月实施"全域限购"，2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"。海南房地产市场在 2010 年 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, particularly the performance of top real estate companies in May and the implications of recent market trends and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the real estate market showed a lackluster performance, similar to an ordinary weekend, with a year-on-year decline [4]. - Over 80% of real estate companies experienced a year-on-year sales decline of 20% to 30% during the May Day holiday [5]. - In May, approximately 40 companies saw month-on-month sales improvements, with some companies like Greentown and China Overseas achieving increases exceeding 30% [7]. - The top ten real estate companies had a sales threshold of 43.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [3]. Regional Disparities - There is significant differentiation in market performance across regions, with core areas showing better absorption cycles compared to non-core and suburban areas, where absorption rates are generally below 50% [6]. - In Shanghai, the supply of new projects increased by nearly 50% year-on-year, leading to a 24% increase in transaction volume [6]. Market Trends - The market is showing a slight upward trend, driven by good absorption of new projects in core cities and a recovery in supply [8]. - High-quality residential projects are gaining attention, with new regulations being implemented to promote their development [9]. - The phenomenon of "daylight sales" (where new projects sell out on the first day) reflects strong demand for high-quality residential products [10]. Buyer Sentiment - Buyers still have expectations for quality properties, influenced by delivery expectations and price forecasts [13]. - The adjustment of down payment ratios has had a less significant effect than in the past, with buyers being cautious about leveraging [15]. - Interest rate adjustments have a high sensitivity among buyers, with the central bank lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to reduce monthly payment pressure [16]. Future Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a year of comprehensive restart, with ongoing adjustments and reforms in core cities [20]. - New construction projects are expected to continue to decline, with completion areas returning to levels seen 20 years ago [21]. - The overall investment in real estate development is projected to decrease, but the decline is expected to narrow [22]. Impact of New Housing Models - The promotion of current housing sales is gradually gaining traction, enhancing buyer confidence [14]. - The introduction of high-efficiency housing models is expected to impact the pricing of lower-efficiency second-hand homes [28]. Policy Implications - Current policies aim to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as housing inspections and insurance [30]. - The focus is on enhancing the attractiveness of new residential properties through reasonable pricing and quality service, which is expected to support overall market recovery [31]. Additional Important Insights - The differentiation between new and second-hand housing markets is primarily driven by supply and market expectations [26]. - The rental market remains stable, with some areas experiencing rent increases despite high listing volumes in the second-hand market [27]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while there are challenges, the market is moving towards stabilization and potential growth, particularly in high-quality segments [19].

5月，越城区新建商品房成交308套，成交面积为37774.57平方米。 商品住宅成交278套，成交面积36018.69平方米； 商业物业成交11套，成交面积739.36平方米； 办公地产成交19套，成交面积1016.52平方米； | 2025年5月新手房成交情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | (信息来源:绍兴房地产信息网 制表时间:2025.6.4) | | | | 套数 | | 面积(m) | | 1 总体 | 308 | 37774.57 | | 、商品住宅 | 278 | 36018.69 | | 办公地产 | 19 | 1016.52 | | 商业物业 | 11 | 739.36 | | 主城区住宅 X | 48 | 6491.63 | | 镜湖住宅 | 167 | 22353.94 | | 袍汀住宅 | 63 | 7173.12 | 据绍兴市房地产信息网统计数据显示，越城区2025年5月新房+二手房共计成交1120套。 01. 新房 商品住宅成交中，主城区商品住宅成交48套，成交面积为6491.63平方米。 镜湖区域商品住宅成交167套，成交面积为22353.94平方米。 ...

转自：推广 在房地产行业的发展历程中，销售模式的变革往往预示着市场的深刻转型。现房销售，这一备受热议的 概念，如今正逐渐站上舆论的制高点。 日前，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，一句"加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度" 引 发了各界的高度关注。所谓 "新模式"，在 2023 年住建部部长倪虹就曾公开提出开展现房销售试点，以 推动房地产行业向更为稳健、可持续的新发展模式平稳过渡。2024 年全国两会期间，倪虹再次强调要 有力有序推进现房销售。 01 政务东的"孤品逻辑" 合肥政务区，这片仅以1% 的土地承载着城市 70% 顶配资源的区域，一直是高端居住与资源汇聚的核心 地带。而政务东作为政务区资源外溢的首选之地，早已成为塔尖圈层所公认的优质板块。红达天映更是 政务东板块内最后一块住宅用地，其 "绝版性" 赋予了项目在尚未开盘时便拥有了 "资产锚点" 的独特属 性。 （红达天映区位图） 红达天映由红达与丰宏两大品牌合力打造，体现了对合肥土地的深度理解和尊重。合肥正处于快速发展 阶段，政务东板块作为新兴高端居住区，融合了全市优质市政资源和深厚人文底蕴。随着政务区提质扩 容，政务东应运而生，承接了合肥顶流板 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and trends in the Chinese real estate market, highlighting sales performance and inventory management among top real estate companies [2][3][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May 2025, new home sales remained stable month-on-month, with the top 100 real estate companies experiencing a 3.5% increase in performance compared to the previous month [2]. - The market remains concentrated among leading firms, with over 60% of the top sales companies not resuming land acquisitions in the first five months of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Inventory Management - A study on inventory management for 2024 indicates that typical real estate companies have nearly 30% of their inventory in completed projects, analyzing inventory scale, structure, and investment intensity [5]. - The report on the 2025 stock of residential land reveals significant disparities in inventory levels and construction progress across cities, suggesting that special bond storage needs further refinement [5]. Group 3: Land Market Trends - The land market continues to focus on controlling volume and improving quality, with a decrease in transaction area year-on-year but an increase in transaction value as of May 2025 [13]. - Weekly land transaction amounts saw a significant increase, with a near doubling in transaction value, while the premium rates have returned to their highest levels of the year [14].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The pace of demolition and construction of high-rise buildings has slowed, with resources focusing on urban renewal of old neighborhoods built over 20 years ago, including upgrades like elevator installations and infrastructure improvements [1] - As of now, 280,000 old neighborhoods have been renovated, with 130,000 elevators installed and 3.8 million parking spaces added, alongside the updating of approximately 500,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that all urban old neighborhoods built before 2000 will undergo renovation, affecting around 220,000 neighborhoods and approximately 39 million households [1] Group 2: Policy Changes in Real Estate Sales - The cancellation of the pre-sale system has been officially implemented in Xinyang, Henan, requiring all new real estate projects to be sold only after completion, increasing pressure on developers [3] - This shift to selling completed homes is expected to stabilize housing prices by limiting new project launches and reducing land supply, benefiting ordinary homebuyers [3][4] - The new regulations also aim to improve housing quality by eliminating the "high turnover" model that led to many low-quality pre-sold homes, ensuring that only developers who focus on quality remain in the market [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The focus of the real estate market is shifting from new home supply to the second-hand housing market, as the core driving force for price increases changes [4] - Future housing options will cater to diverse consumer needs, including renovated old neighborhoods, affordable housing, and improved quality in new homes, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing living conditions over speculative investments [6] - Homebuyers are increasingly valuing the residential attributes of properties rather than seeking profit from price fluctuations, indicating a fundamental change in purchasing motivations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards selling completed properties is fundamentally changing the funding model for real estate companies, leading to a significant decline in investment returns and a push towards light-asset development strategies [2][4][5] Group 1: Impact of Current Housing Sales - The current housing sales model necessitates developers to have sufficient self-funding, resulting in longer development cycles and decreased capital turnover [5][6] - This shift is prompting companies to adjust their business portfolios, with a noticeable move towards light-asset operations such as construction management [5][6] - Over 100 real estate companies have engaged in project management, with 49 establishing independent management platforms, indicating a growing trend towards specialized construction management [5][6] Group 2: Land Transaction Trends - The decline in land transactions and the need for local government financing will lead to an increased proportion of residential construction management projects [7][8] - Despite a decrease in land acquisition, the overall scale of the construction management market is expected to remain stable, with a focus on commercial projects [7][8] Group 3: Market Penetration by City Tier - The penetration rate of construction management is expected to rise, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-tier cities will stabilize and third- and fourth-tier cities may decline [9][10] - First-tier cities have historically low penetration rates, but this is expected to increase as companies seek to engage in local government projects to optimize land resources [10] Group 4: Changes in Construction Management Models - The trend towards "small equity operation" in construction management is increasing, necessitating adjustments in payment structures and timelines [12] - Companies are facing challenges related to funding pressures and extended return cycles, requiring a re-evaluation of payment rules linked to project milestones [12] Group 5: Intensifying Competition in Construction Management - The construction management sector is experiencing intensified competition, with a potential for a "second" round of industry reshuffling as new entrants gain market share [13][14] - Companies must enhance their service capabilities and operational efficiency to remain competitive, leveraging digital tools to improve project delivery [14][15] - Establishing long-term partnerships with local government platforms is crucial for aligning interests and ensuring project success [16]