这一概率断崖式领先其他美联储主席候选人。目前，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒获得提名的概率为12%，前美联储理事凯文·沃什的概率为 11%。 哈塞特周日在一场节目中表态称， 若特朗普选定他担任美联储主席，他将欣然接受这一任命 。 而在另一档节目中，哈塞特拒绝回应自己是否是美联储主席继任者的领跑者，称相关报道只是 "传闻"。同时他提到，市场对 "特朗普接近 敲定人选" 的消息反应积极，还表示美国民众可以期待特朗普选出能带来更低贷款利率的美联储主席。 负责美联储主席遴选的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周表示，特朗普可能会在12月25日圣诞节假期前宣布他的提名人选。 美国总统特朗普周日最新表示， 他已确定美联储下任主席的人选，并将很快公布这一决定 。 但在接受记者采访时，特朗普拒绝证实鲍威尔的继任者是预测市场最看好的凯文·哈塞特，后者目前担任美国国家经济委员会主任。 与哈塞特一同入围最终候选名单的还有美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼、前美联储理事凯文·沃什以及贝莱德集团固定收益部门 主管里克·里德。 据市场预测平台Kalshi上的投注数据，目前哈塞特获得提名的概率为58%，较上周二的不足 40%大幅上升。 不过该 ...

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has entered its final stages, with Kevin Hassett being the favored candidate [1] - The new chairman announcement may come before Christmas, as stated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1] - The current tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve is highlighted by Trump's criticism of Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates promptly [1] - Hassett's alignment with Trump's policy stance suggests a potential for more aggressive interest rate cuts, as he has publicly stated he would lower rates immediately if in charge [1] - The final candidates for the position include Hassett, Walsh, Waller, Bowman, and Reed, who will meet with the White House core team and require Senate confirmation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates twice this fall, but there is increasing internal disagreement regarding inflation and employment outlook, leading to uncertainty about further cuts in December [2] - Powell's term as Chairman will end in May 2026, and new vacancies may arise within the Federal Reserve in the coming year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with five strong candidates identified, including close associates of Trump and a prominent critic of the Fed [1][2]. Candidate Analysis - **Kevin Hassett**: As the Director of the National Economic Council, he has a close relationship with Trump and emphasizes the importance of Fed independence and sound monetary policy. He criticizes the Fed for misjudging inflation during the pandemic and supports a significant rate cut in December [2][3]. - **Chris Waller**: Currently a Fed board member, he has called for rate cuts and is concerned about a weak job market. He believes inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target when excluding tariff impacts [4][5]. - **Michelle Bowman**: Another current Fed member, she is worried about the job market's fragility and supports rate cuts. She has proposed regulatory changes to focus on significant financial risks [5][6]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, he has been critical of the Fed's recent decisions and believes it should abandon its inflation predictions. He argues that inflation is driven by excessive government spending [7][8][9]. - **Rick Rieder**: As BlackRock's fixed income chief, he manages $2.4 trillion in assets and supports a rate cut in December, citing concerns about the labor market [10]. Potential Candidates - **Steven Mnuchin**: Although he has expressed disinterest in the Fed Chair position, he remains a top candidate due to his close ties with Trump [11]. - **Trump's Preference**: The president is likely to choose a candidate who aligns with his low-rate philosophy, which could lead to a more dovish Fed [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The White House's National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, aligning with Trump's stance on interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Candidate Selection - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] - The candidate pool has been narrowed down to five individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder from BlackRock [1] Group 2: Candidate Background - Kevin Hassett has previously served as an advisor to Coinbase Global Inc. and holds at least $1 million in shares of the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, as indicated by President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with the current Chair, Jerome Powell, and is considering new candidates for the position [3][6]. Candidate Selection Process - The candidate list for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down from 11 to 5 individuals, with interviews ongoing. The final decision is expected to be made before Christmas [5][10]. - Current candidates include Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett, with Hassett being viewed as the frontrunner with a 47% probability of being appointed [7][9]. Criticism of Current Policies - Candidates have publicly criticized the current Federal Reserve policies, with Kevin Warsh stating that the Fed is hindering stronger economic growth and calling for a reduction in the balance sheet and interest rates [9]. - Hassett also echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that the Fed has made several policy mistakes and should return to an independent, data-driven approach [9].

Core Viewpoint - Speculation around the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified following President Trump's recent comments, particularly regarding current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as a potential candidate [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Considerations - Trump praised Mnuchin's ability to "calm" financial markets, contrasting it with his own sometimes disruptive style [1]. - Despite Mnuchin's public disinterest in the position, his name continues to circulate, indicating ongoing speculation about the final choice [1][2]. - The selection process for Powell's successor is in a critical phase, with a shortlist of five candidates emerging, including Fed governors Waller and Bowman, Trump's economic advisor Hassett, BlackRock strategist Rick Rieder, and former Fed governor Warsh [3]. Group 2: Timeline and Implications - Trump aims to finalize the selection of the next Fed Chair by the end of the year, which is an accelerated timeline compared to usual practices [4]. - The new Chair is likely to participate in the March and April interest rate meetings, potentially influencing monetary policy before officially taking office [4]. Group 3: Policy Environment - The incoming Fed Chair will face a policy environment characterized by calls for interest rate cuts, with the Fed having already lowered rates by 25 basis points in September due to signs of a weakening labor market [5]. - There is a consensus among Trump and his allies, including Mnuchin, advocating for further rate reductions, with expectations of a 125 basis point cut by year-end [6].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman is in its final stages, with a shortlist of five candidates expected to be presented to President Trump by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman - The shortlist of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman includes current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to conduct another round of interviews and submit a "high-quality candidate list" to President Trump by the end of November [1] Group 2: President Trump's Influence - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and has criticized current Chairman Powell for not doing enough to support economic growth [1] - Trump has threatened to remove Powell from his position, indicating a strong influence on the selection process for the next chairman [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to five candidates, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The five candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include current Board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Board member Kevin Walsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed [1] - The candidates represent a mix of backgrounds from within the Federal Reserve, the White House, and Wall Street [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate during the two-day policy meeting ending on October 29 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accelerated process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of the year, which could allow the White House to influence monetary policy ahead of the new chair's official term starting in May [3][4]. Candidate Selection - Trump is currently choosing from five final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [3][5]. - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which is seen as a key factor in winning the nomination [5][6]. Implications of Early Appointment - The potential new chair is likely to fill the seat currently held by Stephen Miran, whose term ends in January. This allows the new chair to participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings before officially taking office [4][7]. - Early appointment could enable the new chair to influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, but it may also create awkward situations for the successor, who might have to publicly challenge decisions made by their future colleagues [8].

Core Points - President Trump is accelerating the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of this year, which is significantly earlier than usual [2] - The five final candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, with Hassett and Warsh seen as frontrunners [4][5] - The new chair is expected to influence monetary policy decisions before officially taking office in mid-May, as they may participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings [3][6] Candidate Details - The final five candidates confirmed by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin include Waller and Bowman, both nominated by Trump, along with Hassett, Warsh, and Rieder [4] - Hassett and Warsh are noted for their close relationships with Trump, which is considered a key factor in their candidacy [4] - Rieder has made a strong impression on Mnuchin during their meetings, adding to his candidacy [4] Implications of Early Appointment - Historically, new Fed chairs are announced three to four months before the current chair's term ends, allowing the incoming chair to shape investor expectations regarding interest rates [6] - The arrangement allows the new chair to vote on monetary policy decisions before their official term begins, providing a structured way to influence policy direction [7] - However, an early announcement may create challenges for the successor, as they could face pressure to either challenge decisions made by their future colleagues or defend the Fed's actions, potentially causing tension with Trump [7]