李斌介绍，上半年我国外汇收支呈现五方面特点：一是涉外收支规模稳步增加。上半年，企业、个人等 非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元，同比增长10.4%，规模创历史同期新高，其中，人民币在 跨境收支中的比重达到了53%。上半年，银行结汇和售汇规模合计2.3万亿美元，同比增长3%，规模为 历史同期次高。这些数据表明，我国跨境贸易和投融资活动继续保持活跃。 二是跨境资金延续净流入。上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入1273亿美元，延续去年下 半年以来的净流入态势，其中，二季度净流入环比增长46%。分项目看，上半年货物贸易项下净流入保 持高位，外资总体净增持境内股票和债券，服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出平稳有序。 按美元计值，6月份，银行代客涉外收入6478亿美元，对外付款6225亿美元。今年前6个月，银行代客累 计涉外收入38606亿美元，累计对外付款37333亿美元。 对于2025年上半年我国外汇收支的有关情况，外汇局副局长、新闻发言人李斌7月22日在国新办举行的 新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，外部环境更趋复杂多变，单边主义、保护主义抬升，全球经济和跨境贸 易增长动能减弱，国际金融市场波动加大。我国加快实 ...

人民币汇率波动：解读2025年8月6日市场走势及换汇策略 2025年8月6日，美元兑人民币中间价报7.1366，较前一交易日小幅上涨，显示人民币略微走强。在岸市场汇率在7.1783附近小幅波动，离岸市场则徘徊在 7.1788左右，两市场汇差微小，反映出市场对人民币预期相对稳定。那么，这对于普通老百姓意味着什么？我们该如何解读这一汇率走势，并制定相应的换 汇策略呢？ 您的换汇策略该如何制定？ 是否现在适合换汇，取决于您的具体需求和资金用途： 短期换汇需求 (一至两个月内): 鉴于当前汇率相对稳定，建议分批换汇，无需盲目等待汇率最低点。 近期人民币汇率波动区间收窄，与以往剧烈波动形成鲜明对比。这背后蕴藏着多重信号： 市场信心增强: 汇率稳定反映了市场对中国经济未来发展抱有较强信心，机构和投资者保持理性预期。 跨境资金流动平稳: 外资进出相对平衡，未出现大规模资金涌入或流出，金融市场情绪趋于稳定。 有效宏观调控: 央行通过适时干预，引导汇率运行在合理区间，维护金融市场稳定。 汇率的平稳波动也为个人换汇提供了更稳定的环境，降低了因汇率剧烈 波动而蒙受损失的风险。 汇率波动对不同群体的差异化影响： 人民币升值并非绝对利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the EF account in Hainan Free Trade Port has significantly enhanced cross-border capital flow, facilitating over 170 billion yuan in transactions within a year, marking a milestone in financial openness and efficiency in the region [4][5]. Policy Empowerment - The People's Bank of China initiated the EF account to support the operational closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, with the account officially launched on May 6, 2024, and has since been well-received by businesses [5][6]. - The EF account serves as a crucial financial infrastructure for Hainan's gradual financial opening, allowing for more convenient cross-border capital flow management [5][10]. - The EF account operates under a principle of "one line open, two lines manage," which simplifies the cross-border capital flow process compared to traditional methods [5]. Business Practice - On the first day of the EF account's launch, 34 companies opened accounts, with one company completing five transactions in a single day, demonstrating the efficiency of cross-border capital movement [6]. - In the first half of 2025, 273 new EF accounts were opened, a significant increase from the previous year, with a total transaction volume of approximately 91.8 billion yuan, indicating growing business engagement with the EF account [8]. Financial Innovation - The EF account has shifted business needs from basic cross-border settlements to global treasury management, enhancing liquidity and competitiveness for enterprises [9]. - The successful implementation of the first EFN loan has provided a new financing model for other companies, promoting innovation in the cross-border financial sector [9]. Risk Control - The EF account's design balances the need for free capital flow with risk management, establishing a financial "electronic fence" to ensure safe and orderly operations [10]. - The account's framework allows for limited penetration between cross-border and domestic accounts, creating a safeguard while promoting financial market openness [10].

当前，外部环境复杂多变，主要发达经济体货币政策存在高度不确定性。受访专家普遍认为，当前，我 国货币政策有充分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性的影响有限。 我国货币政策有条件坚持"以我为主" 下半年，尽管海外央行货币政策调整存在不确定性，我国货币政策仍有充分条件坚持"以我为主""对内 优先"。 当前，市场普遍预期美联储下半年重启降息，但降息节奏和路径尚不明朗。 "一方面，美国经济下行压力加大、财政赤字持续攀升等因素将推动美联储降息；另一方面，美国通胀 压力逐步显现，成为降息掣肘因素。"中国银行研究院全球经济团队主管熊启跃认为。 他还表示，考虑到美国加征关税可能对欧洲经济带来的冲击，以及欧洲财政扩张面临的赤字压力，欧洲 央行下半年也可能适时降息。此外，日本目前面临较大输入型通胀压力，日本央行下半年大概率适时加 息，加息幅度或将较为温和。 主要发达经济体货币政策调整，是否会影响我国货币政策？受访专家一致认为，当前我国货币政策有充 分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性不会带来显著影响。 中国人民银行近日召开的2025年下半年工作会议提出，保持汇率弹性，强化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that maintaining economic stability will be crucial for stabilizing the exchange rate, with macroeconomic policies focusing on growth as the primary factor for exchange rate stability [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC aims to keep the RMB exchange rate flexible and stable, reinforcing expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations [1]. - The current economic fundamentals in China are improving, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's stability despite uncertainties in the USD's performance [1][2]. - The PBOC's stance is clear: it will not seek to devalue the RMB for competitive advantages, maintaining the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy for the second half of the year will focus on stabilizing growth through increased fiscal support, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]. - This approach is expected to mitigate external volatility's impact on the domestic economy and provide crucial support for the RMB exchange rate [1]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flow Management - Experts suggest that China should enhance macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and guide expectations to manage the complexities of international capital movements [3]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy in major economies may lead to increased capital inflows into China, supporting its capital markets [3]. - There is a need for close monitoring of cross-border capital flows to balance higher levels of foreign exchange openness with the support of the real economy and the prevention of external shocks [3].

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB central parity rate has shown a gradual appreciation since July, with the rate breaking 7.14, indicating a strong upward signal[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated around 7.17, reflecting a "strong central rate, weak spot rate" dynamic[7] - The central parity rate has increased by 0.23% since July 1, 2025, reaching a low of 7.1385, the lowest since November 2024[7] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of 2025, the net inflow of foreign exchange was $30.89 billion, with a trade surplus of $43.57 billion from January to June[24] - The average active settlement rate for export enterprises was 47.13% in the first half of 2025, down from 48.37% in the same period of 2024[26] - The forward settlement scale increased by $44.33 billion from April to June 2025, indicating expectations of RMB appreciation[28] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reached a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling[34] - The net inflow from securities investment projects was $18.06 billion in the first half of 2025, with a surplus of $7.736 billion in June alone[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and the impact of non-U.S. currency movements on the RMB[40] - The average holding cost of the "waiting for settlement" funds is approximately 7.05, with a total scale of about $400 billion as of June 2025[32]

Group 1 - Zhengzhou fried chicken brand "Zhang Duntun Kaiflower Chicken Leg" successfully completed angel round financing of tens of millions RMB, with funds focused on optimizing franchise support and market expansion [3] - Professional outdoor brand "SURPINE Songyoupai" completed tens of millions RMB Pre-A financing, aimed at product R&D innovation, user experience enhancement, team building, and multi-channel expansion [4][5] - "Nezha Xianyin" completed 10 million RMB angel round financing, with funds primarily for product R&D upgrades and nationwide store network expansion [7] Group 2 - "M password" sanitary napkins were reported to contain high levels of carcinogens, with specific products showing sulfur content as high as 16653.4679μg/g, although the company claims all products meet national standards [8][9] - Sam's Club acknowledged a decline in the quality of organic soybeans, with the current product being rated as grade 3, while the previous product was grade 1 [10][11] - TikTok's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach $23 billion, a 42.8% year-on-year increase, making it the fourth largest social app globally [11] Group 3 - The price of gold jewelry has dropped, with various brands reporting a decrease in price per gram, such as Chow Sang Sang at 1015 RMB, down 14 RMB from the previous day [17] - The AI eyewear market has seen explosive growth, with transaction volume increasing tenfold year-on-year in the first half of the year, and average prices dropping from over 2000 RMB to around 1500 RMB [18] - In the first half of 2025, non-bank sectors in China experienced a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, continuing the trend of net inflows since the second half of last year [19]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China demonstrated strong resilience in the first half of 2025 despite a complex external environment, characterized by weakening global economic growth and increased market volatility [1] - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments showed steady growth, with non-bank sector cross-border receipts and payments totaling $7.6 trillion, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for the same period [3] - The proportion of the Renminbi in cross-border receipts and payments rose to 53%, indicating steady progress in the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] Group 2 - Cross-border capital flows maintained a net inflow trend, with non-bank sector net inflows reaching $127.3 billion in the first half, and a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [3] - The Renminbi exchange rate exhibited good two-way fluctuation characteristics, appreciating by 1.9% against the US dollar, maintaining stability within the range of 7.15 to 7.35 [4] - Market expectations remained stable and rational, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation expectations for the Renminbi, reflecting mature behavior among market participants [4]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with an increased willingness from foreign investors to allocate assets in RMB, and overall balanced cross-border capital flows [1][3] - In the first half of the year, the scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in China reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,174 billion by the end of June, up by $115.1 billion from the end of 2024 [3] - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with derivatives trading accounting for 65% of the total [3] - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of $10.1 billion, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years [3] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to implement three key measures to enhance cross-border trade and investment, including expanding pilot policies in free trade zones and simplifying foreign direct investment registration [4] - The foreign debt quota for high-quality technology enterprises will be increased to $20 million, with formal documents to be released soon [4] - The market mechanism for RMB exchange rates is being continuously improved, with a historical high of 30% in the foreign exchange hedging ratio among enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is showing signs of stability and growth, with a significant increase in cross-border payments and a notable rise in the use of the Renminbi for international transactions [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Characteristics - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments has steadily increased, reaching a total of $7.6 trillion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with the Renminbi accounting for 53% of this total [2][4]. - There has been a continued net inflow of cross-border funds, amounting to $127.3 billion in the first half of 2025, with a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [2][3]. - The foreign exchange market is generally balanced, with a bank settlement deficit of $25.3 billion in the first half, but showing a shift to surplus in May and June [3]. Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - The trading volume in the domestic Renminbi foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion by the end of June 2025, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024, indicating a stable reserve position [3]. - The willingness to settle foreign exchange transactions has increased, with bank settlements in June 2025 amounting to 14.9 billion Renminbi, while the total for the first half reached 82.135 billion Renminbi [5][6]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment Insights - The data on bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments indicates a healthy cross-border capital flow, with total receipts of 46.485 billion Renminbi and payments of 44.667 billion Renminbi in June 2025 [5][6]. - The increase in foreign currency income from bank customer transactions suggests a growing inclination to settle in Renminbi, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards the currency [8]. - The net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a trend of net outflows observed in the previous two years [8].