Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain stable borrowing costs, continuing a wait-and-see approach since January, as indicated by Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted a "robust" labor market [2] - The July employment report revealed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the monthly growth needed to keep pace with population growth, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The labor department revised down previous months' employment growth data, showing that job growth has been weak, with the average monthly growth from May to July being the slowest since 2009, excluding the pandemic recession [4] Group 2 - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve has emerged, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a decision [6] - Both dissenting officials cited signs of weakness in the labor market as their main reason for disagreement, downplaying the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on prices [6] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed confidence in the decision made earlier in the week, despite the disappointing employment report, indicating a cautious approach to interpreting individual reports [7]

Group 1 - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler creates a significant vacancy and uncertainty regarding future appointments, particularly concerning the potential successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [1][2] - Kugler, appointed by President Biden in September 2023, was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board and had a term set to end on January 31, 2026, but will return to Georgetown University this fall [1] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against maintaining interest rates, marking the first time since December 1993 that two members formally opposed the FOMC's decision [3] Group 2 - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 115,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 82%, reflecting market concerns about the economy [3] - Following these economic concerns, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines of over 1% [3]

2025.08. 02 本文字数：1229，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 库格勒的提前退出可能会动摇目前围绕美联储主席鲍威尔的继任进程的时间表。鲍威尔的任期将于明 年5月结束，特朗普一再威胁要解雇鲍威尔，认为利率应该远低于现在。 封图 | 库格勒 资料图 美联储周五表示，理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）将辞职提前离开美联储董事会，于8月8日正式生 效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之际，这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺，也给未来美联 储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事，在加 入美联储之前，她是乔治城大学的教授，也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储在一份声明中表示，库格勒将在其任期结束前离职，任期原定于2026年1月31日结束。离开 美联储后，库格勒将于今年秋天回到乔治城大学担任教授。 美联储有关库格勒离任的声明（来源：美联储官网） 库格勒因个人原因没有参加本周的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，引发了外界关注。 库格勒在辞职信中没有提供辞职的理由。"我很自豪能够以正直的态度、对服务公众的坚定承诺 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth to approximately 1% this year, while the labor market remains robust [1] Economic Outlook - U.S. economic growth is expected to decelerate to around 1% in 2023 [1] - The labor market continues to show strength despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：在我看来，劳动力市场仍然稳固。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：过去一年我们看到劳动力市场"温和而逐步地降温" 。 ...

此前，库格勒因个人原因缺席了本周的议息会议。 美联储周五表示，理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）将辞职提前离开美联储董事会，于8月8日正式生效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之 际，这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺，也给未来美联储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事，在加入美联储之前，她是乔治城大学的教 授，也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储在一份声明中表示，库格勒将在其任期结束前离职，任期原定于2026年1月31日结束。离开美联储后，库格勒将于今年秋天回到乔治 城大学担任教授。 美联储理事沃勒和美联储监管副主席鲍曼投票反对维持利率不变，希望降息25个基点。这标志着自1993年12月格林斯潘时代以来，理事会7 人首次有两名成员正式反对FOMC的决定。 回顾历史，美联储理事反对票相对罕见，大多数反对票来源于地区联储主席。上一次出现理事反对票是在去年9月的会议上，当时鲍曼希望 降息25个基点，而不是最终决定的50个基点，上一次两位地区联储主席投票反对FOMC共识是在2019年10月。 当地时间周五，鲍曼和沃勒回应了自己赞成 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：在许多方面，劳动力市场仍然看起来不错。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no reason to maintain the current policy interest rate and risk a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Waller's statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction, suggesting that the current interest rate may not be justified [1] - The emphasis on the labor market highlights the importance of employment stability in monetary policy considerations [1]