Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth to approximately 1% this year, while the labor market remains robust [1] Economic Outlook - U.S. economic growth is expected to decelerate to around 1% in 2023 [1] - The labor market continues to show strength despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% as expected, indicating a cautious stance on future monetary policy without providing a clear path for rate cuts [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted three key points: first, it remains highly attentive to future inflation based on trade developments; second, the annualized GDP growth for Q2 increased by 3%, showing improvement from the contraction in Q1, although overall economic growth has shown signs of slowing in the first half of the year; third, the employment market in the U.S. is still considered robust [1] - Following the meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in October decreased to 76%, with the anticipated number of rate cuts for the year falling to less than two [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the Fed's less optimistic view on U.S. economic growth compared to earlier assessments, suggesting that if inflation rises temporarily or economic growth continues to slow, the Fed may adopt more aggressive rate-cutting measures [1] - The expectation remains that a rate cut in Q4 is still a significant possibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "big and beautiful" fiscal plan by the U.S. government is viewed skeptically by Lombard Odier, which believes it will have limited positive impact on the economy and may worsen the fiscal outlook [1] Economic Impact - Lombard Odier forecasts that the budget plan will increase the federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [1] - If tax cuts are made permanent, the deficit could increase even further [1] - The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 119% by around 2034 [1] Revenue and Spending - While tariff revenues may alleviate some fiscal pressure, the largest spending cuts will focus on healthcare and food assistance programs [1] - Most tax cuts are unlikely to significantly boost consumer spending [1] Economic Growth Projections - Lombard Odier maintains its previous economic growth forecasts for the U.S., predicting growth rates of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 by 0.55%, and the Dow Jones by 0.25%, marking new closing highs since late February and early March respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced upward movement, with Intel increasing nearly 8%, Tesla over 5%, and other companies like Google, Meta, and Apple showing modest gains [1] - The positive market performance was attributed to optimistic signals from U.S. Commerce Secretary, indicating progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report casts a shadow over global economic prospects, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating a potential slowdown not seen since the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - The report warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for economic performance since the Apollo moon landing, with global trade growth expected to drop to 1.8% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024 [2] - The World Bank anticipates that nearly 60% of developing economies will face economic slowdowns this year, a downgrade from previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs illegal, arguing that halting these tariffs could lead to "irreparable economic and national security harm" [3] - A recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ordered the suspension of these tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them shortly after [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan's strategists, led by Jay Barry, have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4% [1] - The forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of the year has also been increased to 3.5%, previously estimated at 3% [1] - The easing of trade tensions initiated by President Trump is expected to benefit U.S. economic growth, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]