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降关税稳定货币,大订单带来外汇,阿根廷农民为“零税出口”叫好
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-24 23:00
Core Viewpoint - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export withholding taxes on agricultural products such as grains, beef, and poultry to alleviate foreign exchange pressure and stimulate exports, a move that is expected to last until October 31 or until export declarations reach $7 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The removal of withholding taxes is expected to significantly reduce the tax burden on key agricultural exports, with current export duties on soybean meal and oil at 24.5%, soybeans at 26%, and corn and wheat at 9.5% [2]. - Analysts estimate that this measure could lead to a $1.4 billion reduction in government tax revenue, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP [2]. - The policy is anticipated to lower costs by $123.7 per ton for soybeans and $29.2 per ton for corn, potentially boosting export activity [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, soybean and corn prices experienced declines, with Chicago soybean meal futures dropping by 1.9% and soybean oil futures by 2.5% [6]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts record grain exports of 105.1 million tons for the 2025/26 season, driven by a strong harvest [5]. Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - China has increased its purchases of Argentine soybeans following the tax removal, with reports indicating at least 10 shipments ordered, each approximately 65,000 tons [7]. - This shift in trade dynamics may negatively impact U.S. soybean farmers, who are facing competition from South American producers amid stalled trade negotiations with China [7]. - The Argentine government is seen to be pragmatically enhancing trade relations with China, which could lead to deeper economic cooperation in agricultural exports [8].
乌兹别克斯坦国际储备突破500亿美元
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-23 15:52
乌spot网9月8日援引央行数据报道,截至9月1日,乌兹别克斯坦国际储备 达500.8亿美元,较上月增加13.4亿美元,增幅为2.76%。 (原标题:乌兹别克斯坦国际储备突破500亿美元) 其中,黄金储备达到400.6亿美元,较上月增加13.8亿美元,连续第二个月 创历史新高;国际证券储备达到10.16亿美元;外汇储备减少4930万美元,略 低于85亿美元,包括在其他国家央行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的存款9.1亿 美元和境外商业银行存款75.2亿美元。 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250923
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:11
Report Summary 1. Market Performance of Overnight Futures - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.03% to $3781.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.17% to $44.32 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with WTI crude down 0.10% to $62.34 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.06% to $66.00 per barrel [4]. - London base metals showed mixed results, with LME zinc, lead, and copper rising, while tin, nickel, and aluminum falling [4]. - Most domestic futures contracts closed lower, with 20 - rubber rising nearly 1%, and glass, soda ash, and others falling more than 2% [5]. 2. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations and kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8][9]. - As of September 22, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) dropped 12.9% from the previous period [10]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3 trillion since the 14th Five - Year Plan, and above $3.2 trillion in the past two years [10]. - The Fed's Bostic is reluctant to support another rate cut in October, and the Cleveland Fed's president Hamrick said the Fed needs to be "very cautious" in lifting restrictive policies [10][11]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 22, the styrene inventory in East China's main ports increased by 2.48 million tons to 40.85 million tons [14]. - From September 22 - 28, 2025, the number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 67% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 60% [14]. - As of the week of September 22, domestic asphalt social inventory decreased by 2.1% [15]. 4. Metal Futures - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month, equivalent to 56,000 tons of LCE [17]. - The silicon semiconductor industry has gradually completed destocking, and the demand for materials will be gradually released [17]. - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7903 million tons, up 2.66% year - on - year and 0.35% month - on - month [17]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin miner PT Timah expects to achieve its annual tin output target of 21,500 tons [19]. - In August 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6.277 million tons [19]. 5. Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for added value [21]. - From September 15 - 21, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments decreased, while China's port arrivals increased [22]. - Shougang Shuigang's bar rolling mill will be under maintenance from September 22 for 3 days, affecting the output of construction steel by 450 tons [24]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will promote the high - quality development of the housing and construction industry [24]. 6. Agricultural Futures - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil to trade between 4200 - 4500 ringgit in the coming weeks [26]. - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data showed mixed results [26]. - As of September 17, the national live pig price decreased by 1.58% from September 10 [26]. - Argentina temporarily canceled export taxes on soybeans, corn, and wheat [29]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area [29]. - As of September 22, the national imported soybean port inventory decreased by 143,430 tons week - on - week [30]. - Brazil's soybean processing enterprises plan to invest $1.11 billion in the next 12 months [30]. - As of September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons [30]. - As of September 21, the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 61%, and the harvest rate was 9% [31]. 7. Financial Markets Financial - The CSRC will accelerate the reform of the capital market, deepen the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange [34]. - A - share indices rose, with funds concentrating on technology stocks [34]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and cross - border internet brokers further closed the account - opening channels for mainland Chinese residents [33][34][35]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is consulting on the investor identification code system [36]. - Berkshire Hathaway has cleared its position in BYD, and Kweichow Moutai has not adjusted its annual performance target [36][38]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued plans for the steel and energy equipment industries [39]. - The Ministry of Sports issued a guidance on promoting the high - quality development of sports - promoted health [39]. - The central Cyberspace Administration launched a special campaign to rectify the issue of maliciously inciting negative emotions [39]. - As of the end of August, the number of tax - refund stores for outbound travelers in China exceeded 10,000, and the sales of tax - refund goods increased by 97.5% year - on - year [40]. - In the first half of 2025, the inventory book value of typical real - estate enterprises decreased by 4.6% [40]. Overseas - France recognized the State of Palestine [42]. - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [42]. - The US Treasury Secretary is ready to support Argentina [42]. - France is considering a wealth tax on individuals with over 100 million euros in assets [42]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week [43]. - Turkey terminated additional tariffs on some US imports [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks hit new closing highs, European stocks showed mixed results, and Japanese and South Korean stocks rose [45]. - Buffett increased his stake in Japanese trading companies, and Pfizer will acquire Metsera for up to $7.3 billion [46]. Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and base metals showed mixed results [3][4][46]. - Congo (Kinshasa) will end the cobalt export ban on October 15 and implement a new export quota policy [48]. Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - The Hong Kong Exchange added a floating reference rate option for north - bound swap connect [49]. - The central bank issued 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [50]. - Foreign investors continued to net - buy Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds in August [50]. - US Treasury yields rose [52]. Foreign Exchange - The Hong Kong dollar strengthened at the fastest pace in 20 years, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower [53]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [54]. 8. Upcoming Events - There are various economic data releases, corporate earnings announcements, and stock listings scheduled, along with statements from central bank officials [56]
国家外汇局:我国外汇市场运行平稳 不论是活力还是韧性都在增强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 00:57
一是涉外经济稳健发展,跨境收支展现较强活力。2024年,我国跨境收支规模为14万亿美元,较2020年 增长64%,"十四五"期间年均增长速度比"十三五"期间提高8个百分点。今年前8个月,我国跨境收支同 比增长10%。 二是外汇市场功能更加完备,市场深度拓展。从交易规模看,2024年交易量为41万亿美元,较2020年增 长了37%,即期和衍生品交易同步增长。从参与主体看,截至今年6月末,有703家银行和115家非银机 构参与到银行间外汇市场中,其中包含296家外资机构。从基础设施看,交易、清算和支付机制不断完 善,有效降低了交易成本和结算风险,更好服务实体经济。 9月22日,中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新在国新办"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题 新闻发布会上,总结我国"十四五"期间外汇市场运行表现时说,我国外汇市场运行平稳,不论是活力还 是韧性都在增强。 ◎记者 范子萌 7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元,人民币在跨境贸易中占比升至近 30%,我国外汇储备规模近两年始终稳定在3.2万亿美元以上……9月22日,中国人民银行副行长、国家 外汇局局长朱鹤新在国新办"高质量完成'十 ...
最新LPR发布!◆金价再创新高!◆多地宣布:停课、停工、停产、停运、停业!◆注意!本周上班时间有变
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-09-22 22:56
Group 1 - The Chinese government is promoting high-quality development in industrial parks, focusing on green infrastructure construction [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3 trillion, contributing to economic stability [2] - The loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remain unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years [2] Group 2 - The international gold price has increased by over 42% in 2025, with spot gold reaching a high of $3728.40 per ounce [3] - The Chinese Navy has successfully completed the first catapult launch and recovery training of new aircraft on the Fujian aircraft carrier, marking a significant milestone in naval development [2] - A food safety incident in Guizhou province involved 136 out of 187 individuals hospitalized due to salmonella infection from contaminated sandwiches [4]
外汇市场活力和韧性增强 应对外部风险挑战底气更足
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 22:20
证券时报记者 贺觉渊 中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新9月22日在国新办新闻发布会上介绍"十四五"时期金融业 发展成就时表示,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要 货币中表现比较稳健。我国外汇市场运行平稳,不论是活力还是韧性都在增强。展望未来,外汇局应对 外部风险挑战的底气更足。 "十四五"以来,国际金融市场波动加大,我国外汇市场运行平稳。朱鹤新介绍,从市场活力看,2024 年,我国跨境收支规模为14万亿美元,较2020年增长64%,"十四五"时期年均增长速度比"十三五"时期 提高8个百分点。今年前8个月,我国跨境收支同比增长10%,跨境贸易和投融资活动持续活跃。 从市场韧性看,企业外汇套期保值的比率已经由2020年的17%上升到30%左右,人民币在跨境贸易中的 占比由16%上升到近30%。朱鹤新进一步指出,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动 总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要货币中的表现比较稳健。 "展望未来,我国经济基本面长期向好,高水平对外开放稳步推进,这奠定了国际收支自主平衡格局的 稳定。"朱鹤新表示,随着人民币汇率市场化形成机制不断完善,外汇市场宏 ...
超10万亿元!国家外汇局透露
7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元,人民币在跨境贸易中占比升至近30%,我国外汇储备规模近两年始终稳定在3.2万亿美元 以上…… 中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新9月22日在国新办"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上提到的这些数据,部分凸显出我国外汇 领域近年来的发展活力与韧性。 "十四五"以来,国际政治、经济、社会等多元因素交织,外部环境更趋严峻复杂,国际金融市场波动加大。朱鹤新总结我国外汇市场运行表现时说,我国 外汇市场运行平稳,不论是活力还是韧性都在增强,主要有三方面特点。 一是涉外经济稳健发展,跨境收支展现较强活力。"跨境收支可以反映一个国家涉外经济的活跃度。"朱鹤新介绍说,2024年,我国跨境收支规模为14万亿 美元,较2020年增长64%,"十四五"期间年均增长速度比"十三五"期间提高8个百分点。今年前8个月,我国跨境收支同比增长10%,跨境贸易和投资持续 活跃。 二是外汇市场功能更加完备,市场深度拓展。朱鹤新具体表示,从交易规模看,2024年交易量为41万亿美元,较2020年增长了37%,即期和衍生品交易同 步增长,外汇市场有足够的容量承接各类交易,为 ...
中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新:“十四五”以来我国外汇储备始终稳定在3万亿美元以上
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 16:11
Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the stability and resilience of the foreign exchange market amidst a complex external environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Achievements in Foreign Exchange Sector - The foreign exchange sector has effectively balanced development and security, supporting the new development pattern with a stable foreign exchange reserve above $3 trillion [1] - The cross-border capital flow has shown strong vitality, with a projected cross-border payment scale of $14 trillion in 2024, a 64% increase from 2020, and an average annual growth rate 8 percentage points higher than the previous five-year period [1] - The foreign exchange market has maintained stability, with increased market vitality and resilience, characterized by a balanced international payment and a reasonable current account surplus to GDP ratio [1] Group 2: Market Functionality and Structure - The foreign exchange market has expanded significantly, with a trading volume of $41 trillion in 2024, a 37% increase from 2020, and a diverse range of participants including 703 banks and 115 non-bank institutions [2] - The infrastructure for trading, clearing, and payment has improved, reducing transaction costs and settlement risks, thereby better serving the real economy [2] - The rational and orderly trading in the foreign exchange market has enhanced its stability, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising from 17% in 2020 to around 30% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term positive economic fundamentals and steady high-level opening up will support a stable international payment balance, while the market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate continues to improve [3] - Enhanced macro-prudential management of the foreign exchange market will provide a stronger foundation for healthy development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3]
【金融街发布】国家外汇局: “十四五”以来破获外汇案件超6100件
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has effectively managed foreign exchange cases and maintained foreign exchange reserves above $3 trillion, contributing to economic stability and supporting the new development pattern in China [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Management and Economic Stability - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, over 6,100 foreign exchange cases have been cracked down on, significantly combating illegal activities such as underground banks [1]. - The international balance of payments has remained stable, with the current account surplus to GDP ratio maintained within a reasonable range, reflecting resilience in foreign trade [1]. - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, indicating active cross-border investment [1]. Group 2: Improvement in Foreign Exchange Services - The foreign exchange service environment has been optimized, with the number of enterprises able to handle transactions based on instructions increasing more than fivefold since the end of 2020 [2]. - Administrative licensing for trade foreign exchange receipts has been eliminated, leading to a reduction of over 70% in the number of administrative licenses issued by SAFE [2]. - A unified policy framework for capital pools has benefited over 1,000 multinational groups and 19,000 domestic and foreign member enterprises [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management Enhancements - The regulatory capacity and risk prevention abilities in the context of an open environment have been continuously strengthened, with a dual management framework of macro-prudential and micro-regulation established [2]. - The foreign exchange market has shown improved functionality and resilience, successfully withstanding multiple rounds of external shocks [2]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3 trillion, consistently exceeding $3.2 trillion in recent years, serving as a crucial stabilizer for the national economy [3].
发布会纪要丨我国外汇市场的活力、韧性都在增强,朱鹤新最新发声
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:41
Core Insights - The vitality and resilience of China's foreign exchange market have been enhanced during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period despite a more complex external environment and increased volatility in international financial markets [2][5]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Stability - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3 trillion, consistently exceeding $3.2 trillion in the past two years, serving as a crucial stabilizer for the national economy [3]. - The foreign exchange market has shown rational and orderly trading, with the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate increasing, functioning as an automatic stabilizer for the macro economy and international balance of payments [5]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Regulatory Actions - The ratio of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30%, while the RMB's share in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30%, indicating enhanced market resilience [5]. - Over 6,100 foreign exchange-related cases have been resolved, effectively combating illegal activities such as underground money houses, contributing to a more robust and stable foreign exchange market [6]. Group 3: Cross-Border Investment and Banking Capabilities - As of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, reflecting active cross-border investment and financing [7]. - The capabilities of banks in foreign exchange operations have improved, with over 23,000 quality clients, including SMEs, private enterprises, and foreign-funded companies, participating in foreign exchange business totaling over $500 billion [9].