黄金ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）投资是推高黄金总需求的重要驱动力。《报告》显示，二季度全球 总流入量达170吨，亚洲地区上市基金流入量70吨。在一季度创纪录的流入量支持下，上半年全球黄金 ETF需求总量达397吨，创下自2020年以来最高的上半年纪录。 金条与金币投资也受到投资者青睐。《报告》显示，二季度金条与金币投资总量同比增长11%，至307 吨。其中，中国投资者领跑全球，金条与金币需求同比增长44%，至115吨，是2013年以来最高的二季 度需求。西方市场则呈现分化趋势：欧洲地区二季度净投资需求增长逾1倍，至28吨，而同期美国的金 条与金币需求则减半，至9吨。 对于我国金条与金币需求的攀升，世界黄金协会中国区CEO王立新认为，上半年国内金价上涨24%，相 较于其他资产表现较为亮眼，吸引投资持续流入。同时，中国人民银行持续购金，也带动部分国内投资 者跟进。 近日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度全 球黄金需求总量达1249吨，同比增长3%。当前，复杂多变的政治环境、向上的金价势能提升了投资需 求，强劲的黄金投资流入成为推动今年二季度需求增长的主要动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, marking the ninth consecutive month of accumulation, although the increase has been at a low level for the past five months [1] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - The increase in gold reserves is attributed to a decrease in the necessity for the central bank to pause gold accumulation from a cost control perspective, while the demand for gold accumulation rises from the need to optimize international reserve structure [1] - The global average for gold's share in international reserves is around 15%, while China's gold reserves account for only 7% of its total international reserves as of July 2025, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold reserves and a moderate reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Predictions - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce [1] - According to the World Gold Council's latest survey, 95% of central banks surveyed expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, a decline of $252 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies [3][4]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the significant rise of the US dollar index by 3.39% in July, reversing a five-month downward trend, which led to a decrease in the value of non-dollar assets held in reserves [4]. - The depreciation of non-dollar currencies against the dollar, including a 4.5% drop in the Japanese yen and a 3.2% drop in the euro, further contributed to the reduction in reserves when measured in dollar terms [4]. - Despite the decline, the current level of foreign reserves is considered adequate, with expectations for stability in the future, providing support for the RMB exchange rate and acting as a buffer against external shocks [5]. Gold Reserves - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves increased to 7,396 million ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth [4]. - The ongoing increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the structure of international reserves, especially in light of changing global political and economic conditions [8][10]. - The price of gold has shown a significant upward trend, rising from $2,657.16 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $3,333.28 per ounce by mid-July, reflecting a cumulative increase of 25.45% [8]. - Global central banks remain significant players in gold purchases, with expectations for continued demand, as they hold a substantial portion of their reserves in gold [9][10]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory supported by macroeconomic policies, despite facing various risks and challenges in the second half of the year [7]. - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts to stabilize foreign trade and investment [6].

Group 1 - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, marking an increase of 60,000 ounces month-on-month, with official gold reserves rising for nine consecutive months [2][5] - By the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1][3] - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index, which increased by 3.39% in July, reversing a five-month downward trend [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to optimize the international reserve structure, with a current gold reserve proportion of 7.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15% [5][6] - The World Gold Council reported that central banks globally purchased a net 166 tons of gold in the second quarter, a decrease of 21% year-on-year, but still above the five-year average [6] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with estimates suggesting potential prices of $3,400 per ounce in the next three months and $3,500 per ounce over the next year [5][6]

Group 1: Gold Reserves and Demand - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [1][3] - Despite the continuous increase, the increment has remained low for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a cautious approach to gold purchases [3] - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45% to $132 billion [5] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Outlook - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of global gold demand, with official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, although the pace of purchases has slowed [6] - UBS expects stable demand from central banks in the second half of the year but has revised its annual purchase forecast down from 950-1,000 tons to 900-950 tons [7] - The Chinese central bank is expected to continue increasing gold reserves to optimize its international reserve structure while gradually reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, marking a decline of $25.2 billion or 0.76%, ending a six-month upward trend [2][12] - The decline in foreign reserves is attributed to factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and changes in asset prices, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 3.2% [13][14] - The overall financial asset prices in China's foreign reserves increased, which partially offset the impact of the dollar's appreciation [15]

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76%[2] - The decline in reserves was primarily due to a 3.39% increase in the US dollar index, which led to a drop in the prices of non-dollar assets within the reserves[2] - The average monthly trading volume of foreign reserve assets from 2017 to 2024 was approximately $8.4 billion, accounting for 0.27% of the total reserves, indicating that changes in reserve balances are mainly influenced by exchange rate adjustments and asset price fluctuations[2] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth[2] - The increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the international reserve structure, as the gold proportion in China's reserves is only 1.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%[4] - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a strategy to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi[4]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $329.22 billion, a decline of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, while gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1][3]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,090.36 million in January 2025 and fluctuated throughout the months, reaching $32,852.55 million in May before the decline in July [2]. - The decrease in reserves in July was attributed to the rise in the US dollar index, which increased by 3.39% compared to June, impacting the value of non-dollar assets held in reserves [3]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces in July 2025, although the increment has been low for five consecutive months [1][3]. - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is 7.0%, which is significantly lower than the global average [3]. Market Dynamics - The international economic and trade tensions have eased since May, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand and slight adjustments in international gold prices, although they remain high [4]. - There is a growing need to optimize the structure of international reserves by increasing gold holdings and reducing US Treasury securities, as gold serves as a widely accepted final payment method and enhances the credibility of sovereign currency [4].

Group 1 - Gold is recognized as a special asset with multiple attributes, serving as an important component of international reserves for various countries, providing benefits such as hedging, anti-inflation, and long-term value preservation [1] - According to the World Gold Council's survey, over 95% of central banks believe that global central banks will continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves within the year [1] - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] Group 2 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $33,174 billion as of the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May, maintaining above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves in June was influenced by macroeconomic policies and growth prospects of major economies, alongside a 2.5% decline in the US dollar index, which reached a three-year low [2] - The rise in global financial asset prices, including a 1% increase in the dollar-denominated global bond index and a 5% rise in the S&P 500 index, contributed to the increase in foreign exchange reserves [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been consistently increasing its gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June 2025, marking an increase of 70,000 ounces from the previous month, and this is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Increasing Gold Reserves - The global political and economic landscape is complex and uncertain, especially following the policies of the Trump administration, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3]. - China's gold reserves as a percentage of total international reserves are relatively low compared to the global average, which is around 15%. As of December 2024, gold accounted for only 5.5% of China's official international reserves [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - It is likely that China will continue to increase its gold reserves to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhance the credibility of its sovereign currency [6]. - The ongoing global uncertainties provide motivation for the central bank to keep accumulating gold [7]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of this year, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, marking the largest half-year increase since the second half of 2007. Long-term factors such as geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, and central bank purchases are expected to support further increases in gold prices [8].

具体来看，在这8轮增持中，央行在2022年11月开启的一轮增持黄金持续最久，直至2024年4月， 连续18个月里共增持黄金316.01吨。而在2015年6月至2016年4月，央行此轮增持黄金最多，11 个 月里累计增持黄金754.26吨。 "未来，央行增持黄金仍是大方向。主要原因是我国国际储备中的黄金储备占比偏低，截至5月底， 我国官方储备资产中黄金的占比为7%，明显低于15%左右的全球平均水平。" 王青进一步表示，黄 金作为全球广泛接受的最终支付手段，央行增持黄金能够增强主权货币的信用，为推进人民币国际化 创造有利条件。 虽然我国央行自去年年底重启增持黄金，致使黄金储备数量连续增加，但对比单月增持规模，近月呈 现购买力度缩小的情况，尤其是过去的5月份，央行该月增持规模为1.87吨，下滑至2吨以下，为本 轮重启增持黄金的首次。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月关税战降温，避险需求弱化导致国际金价出现小幅调整，当 月央行继续增持黄金，这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备 结构角度增持黄金的需求上升。 从央行公布的相关数据来看，1999年我国黄金储备数量仅为394.08吨，当时 ...