Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease of 70 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter, suggesting a possible downward trend in oil prices [1] - International oil prices have recently rebounded due to the lack of significant outcomes from US-Russia talks and ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy facilities [4] Oil Price Trends - As of the latest data, US crude oil prices increased by 0.89% to $59.10 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.66% to $62.74 per barrel [4] - Current projections for domestic oil prices remain unchanged, with the next adjustment scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [5] Market Supply and Demand - Recent EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories by 574,000 barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 800,000 barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [4] - Gasoline inventories also rose by 4.518 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.5 million barrels, further intensifying supply concerns [4] - The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with November ADP employment figures indicating a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the lowest since March 2023, which may contribute to softening demand for oil [4] Regional Price Data - Various regions in China show different oil price levels, with Beijing at 6.89 yuan per liter and Shanghai at 6.85 yuan per liter, among others [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price is expected to decrease by 70 yuan/ton, translating to a reduction of 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter, indicating a potential downward trend in oil prices due to significant drops in international oil prices [1][3]. Oil Price Adjustments - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]. - The expected price changes for various fuel types in different regions are detailed, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.68 to 8.00 yuan per liter across various provinces [4][5][6]. International Oil Market Dynamics - Recent meetings between Russian President Putin and a U.S. envoy have raised market expectations for peace talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions and contributed to a decline in international oil prices [3]. - The performance of the oil market shows a decrease in U.S. crude oil prices by 1.55% to $58.58 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 1.53% to $62.33 per barrel [3]. - The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicates a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.48 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, suggesting oversupply or weak demand [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Concerns have arisen regarding potential U.S. military actions against Venezuelan drug trafficking groups, which could disrupt Venezuelan oil supplies and lead to increased oil prices [3].

Core Insights - The domestic oil price adjustment window is approaching, with a predicted decrease of 60 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a drop of approximately 0.05 - 0.06 yuan per liter [1] - The current average prices for gasoline and diesel are at relatively low levels compared to recent years, with 92 gasoline at 6.87 yuan/liter and 95 gasoline at 7.34 yuan/liter [1] - The oil price adjustment cycle has seen 23 price changes in the first 11 months of the year, with more decreases than increases [1] Oil Price Trends - As of December 1, international oil prices have increased, with WTI crude at $59.32/barrel and Brent crude at $63.17/barrel, marking increases of 1.32% and 1.27% respectively [2] - The average WTI price is currently $58.62/barrel and Brent at $63.10/barrel, indicating a rising trend in the current pricing cycle [2] - The predicted decrease in domestic oil prices may be limited if international prices continue to rise, potentially leading to a price freeze instead of a reduction [2] Regional Price Data - The latest regional oil prices as of December 2, 2025, show variations across different provinces, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.68 to 7.77 yuan/liter [3] - Specific prices include Beijing at 6.89 yuan/liter for 92 gasoline and Guangdong at 6.91 yuan/liter [3] - The data reflects a comprehensive overview of current fuel prices across various regions, indicating localized pricing strategies [3]

-------------------- ● 据今日油价查看、新华网 ●责任编辑：黄杰显 ●一级审核：魏艳丽 ●二级审核：董磊 ●三级审核：卢立程 11月30日，本轮油价周期统计工作已完成40%，距离调价窗口——12月8日24时还有8天时间，周期油价 处于下跌趋势，跌幅超50元/吨的下调线，油价调整暂存下调状态。 预计汽柴油下调幅度为75元/吨，折合每升油价下跌0.06-0.07元，预测下周一周期跌幅将收窄至70元/ 吨，本轮油价调整时间：12月8日24时！ 截至目前，今年23次调价，其中"7涨10跌6搁浅"，全年油价涨少跌多，全国92号汽油均价6.87元/升，较 年初7.42元/升下跌近0.55元/升。12月油价有望继续迎来下跌！ ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected in the week of the 21st, and refined oil inventories rebounded across the board, with the data being bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased overall, but there are still many uncertainties regarding Russia's stance on the U.S.-proposed agreement. The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are about to take effect, and although the total Russian oil exports have not declined significantly, the proportion of oil with unknown destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. Considering the significant inventory build - up pressure in the 4th quarter, the overall view on crude oil is bearish. Operationally, consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $58.05, closed at $58.55, with a high of $58.72, a low of $57.66, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 20.41 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $61.94, closed at $62.44, with a high of $62.60, a low of $61.53, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 34.25 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 442.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 447.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 448.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 7.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish strategy on crude oil. Consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [7] 2. Industry News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium exported over 65.5 million barrels of crude oil through its system from the beginning of the year to November 21. The UK government will allow new oil and gas production activities near existing oil fields but will not issue new licenses for exploring new oil and gas fields. A new oil and gas price mechanism will replace the energy profit tax, which is expected to end in April 2030 or earlier. European Commission President von der Leyen said the European Commission is ready to submit a legal text on using frozen Russian assets [10] 3. Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, U.S. gasoline consumption, and U.S. diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][12][15][21]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease in domestic oil prices, with an expected reduction of 80 yuan/ton, translating to a drop of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter, despite a recent rebound in international oil prices [1][3]. Oil Price Trends - The anticipated decrease in domestic oil prices has reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, suggesting a possible downward trend as it falls below the adjustment threshold [1]. - International oil prices have shown volatility, with U.S. crude oil rising by 0.77% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 0.92% to $62.47 per barrel, before experiencing a slight decline [3]. - The market is currently facing expectations of oversupply, as indicated by an increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3]. Regional Price Adjustments - The following are the current prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.48, 98 gasoline at 9.48, 0 diesel at 6.53 [4]. - The price adjustments reflect regional variations, with prices for 92 gasoline ranging from 6.68 in Xinjiang to 8.00 in Hainan [5].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have experienced a downward trend, with the latest adjustment marking the 10th decrease of the year, providing relief to consumers [1][3]. Price Adjustments - As of November 26, the expected reduction in gasoline and diesel prices has reached 90 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter [3][4]. - The total adjustments for the year have resulted in a cumulative decrease of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel, equating to over 0.54 yuan per liter compared to the end of last year [3][4]. Monthly Trends - Throughout the year, oil prices have predominantly shown a pattern of more declines than increases, with 6 months of price drops compared to only 4 months of increases [4]. - November saw a net increase of 55 yuan per ton, despite fluctuations, indicating a potential short-term rebound within a broader downward trend [4]. Future Expectations - The next price adjustment window is set for December 8, with expectations that it could mark the 11th decrease of the year [4][9]. - Current prices for 92 octane gasoline have entered the "6 yuan era," with prices in some regions as low as 6.85 yuan per liter [5]. International Market Influence - Recent declines in international oil prices are attributed to geopolitical factors, including a ceasefire signal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over global energy supply surplus [7]. - As of November 26, WTI crude oil was priced at $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude at $62.48 per barrel, both showing a daily decline of over 1.4% [5]. Consumer Impact - The anticipated price drop could lead to significant savings for consumers, with potential savings of 3.5-4 yuan for a full 50-liter tank if the expected reductions are realized [7]. - The current lowest price for 92 octane gasoline has reached 6.78 yuan per liter in some regions, indicating a trend towards new annual lows [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil retail prices are expected to experience the tenth decline of the year by November 24, driven by fluctuating oil prices and a recent unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, alongside increased gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. [2] Price Adjustments - The average price of the referenced crude oil varieties as of November 24 is $61.68 per barrel, with a change rate of -1.21%, leading to a reduction of 70 yuan per ton for gasoline and 65 yuan per ton for diesel [2] - The price adjustments will result in a decrease of approximately 0.05 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.06 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - After the price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will be approximately 6.86 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will decrease to around 7.35 yuan per liter [2] Yearly Price Trends - The year-to-date adjustments in refined oil prices show a pattern of "7 increases, 10 decreases, and 6 unchanged," with cumulative reductions of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel [2] Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will save consumers about 2.5 yuan [3] - For a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of around 114 yuan in fuel costs [3] Market Outlook - Future expectations suggest that ongoing negotiations in Eastern Europe may alleviate oil supply concerns, potentially leading to a weaker oil market amid international trade disputes and overcapacity predictions [3] - Analysts predict a high probability of further price reductions in the next round of refined oil price adjustments due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts [3] - The next price adjustment window is set to open on December 8, 2025, at 24:00 [3]

Core Insights - The current expectation is for a reduction in domestic oil prices by 90 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter, with the decline potentially exceeding the threshold for price adjustments [1][4] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics, with U.S. crude oil prices falling by 1.32% to $58.10 per barrel [4] Price Adjustments - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [5] - Current fuel prices in various regions are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 - Other regions also show similar pricing trends [5][6] Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk premium associated with the Russia-Ukraine situation has decreased, contributing to the recent drop in international oil prices [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 1.859 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, while gasoline and diesel inventories have risen [4] - Upcoming U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data and initial jobless claims are anticipated to further influence oil prices [4]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased as the US is promoting an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US are about to take effect, and the proportion of Russian oil with unknown export destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. With the geopolitical risks in the market easing recently and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the report suggests a bearish approach to crude oil, recommending shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $58.80, closing at $57.98, with a high of $58.80, a low of $57.38, a decline of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 32.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.40, closing at $61.89, with a high of $62.47, a low of $61.26, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 41.05 million lots. SC's opening price was 449.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 447.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 449.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.13%, and a trading volume of 10.81 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds or engage in reverse arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Industry News - After US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to Brent spot prices (CIF). Most Indian refiners stopped ordering Russian crude after the sanctions, but some are now considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers due to the lower price, with only about one-fifth of the cargoes coming from non-blacklisted entities [7]. - The US is preparing a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days [7]. - The US and Ukraine issued a joint statement stating that they have improved the Russia-Ukraine peace framework [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][21]