Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795) with a target price of 6.12 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The profitability of thermal power is improving, while the company is awaiting the commissioning of hydropower projects [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in revenue for 2024, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [7]. - The company is expected to see growth in its various segments, particularly in thermal and hydropower, with a focus on increasing installed capacity in renewable energy [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A revenue is projected at 179.18 billion CNY, with a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.83 billion CNY, an increase of 75.3% year-on-year [7]. - For 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 192.20 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.26%, while net profit is forecasted to decrease to 7.57 billion CNY, a decline of 23.01% [2][9]. - **Segment Performance**: - Thermal power is projected to generate a net profit of 100.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit margin of 2.9 cents per kWh, showing a year-on-year increase [7]. - The hydropower segment is expected to face challenges due to impairment losses, with a projected net profit of 19.9 billion CNY, down 33.3% year-on-year [7]. - The wind and solar segments are anticipated to grow significantly, with net profits of 19.2 billion CNY and 13.8 billion CNY, respectively, despite facing price pressures [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for thermal power, 20.0 for hydropower, and 16.0 for wind and solar, leading to a total market value estimate of 1,091 billion CNY for the company [11][10]. Key Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including: - Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2024A is projected at 0.55 CNY, decreasing to 0.42 CNY in 2025E [2]. - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 12.67% in 2024A to 11.29% in 2025E [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 8.3 for 2024A, increasing to 10.8 for 2025E [2].

文 ｜ 李想 荣浩翔 朱翀佚 2 0 2 5年1~2月全社会用电同比增长1 . 3%，增速平淡主要原因为冬季气温偏暖以及去年闰年导致的 高基数效应，二产、三产及居民用电增速均环比下降；高耗能地区及沿海地区用电增速环比均小幅 下滑；供给端，火电及核电投资显著加速，电网端则延续2 0 2 4年以来的强劲增长态势，投资金额 同比增速达3 3 . 5%；装机增长、需求平缓使得1~2月火电利用小时数同比下降9 . 4%，风电光伏消纳 率持续小幅下滑。 ▍ 需求：暖冬&闰年高基数效应下，1 ~ 2月用电增速为1 . 3%。 根据中电联数据（下同），2 0 2 5年1~2月，全社会用电1 5 , 5 6 4亿kWh，同比增长1 . 3%，增速较 2 0 2 4年1 2月下滑1 . 9个百分点，用电增速平淡或主要与冬季气温较历史同期偏高、以及去年闰年 导致的高基数效应有关。1~2月，一产、二产、三产及居民用电对整体用电增量贡献度为 7 . 7%/ 4 0 . 4%/ 5 0 . 7%/ 1 . 6%。1~2月，二产用电增速环比下降，高耗能行业用电需求放缓；分区域 看，高耗能地区用电增速回落至2 . 4%，沿海地区增速持续下滑 ...

2 4日从国家能源集团获悉，由该集团河北公司龙山电厂建设的 600兆瓦机组抽汽熔盐储能项 目成功完成满容量顶峰试运， 机组顶峰负荷稳定达到650兆瓦 ，各项参数表现正常。这是全 国首个火电抽汽熔盐储能项目，为火电机组大幅提高调峰能力开辟了全新的技术路径，此次 试运行验证了项目技术可行性。 该项目位于河北邯郸， 总投资3.2亿元 ，是国内首个采用多源抽汽—配汽调控技术的大规模 抽汽熔盐蓄能项目，旨在提高电网调峰能力，优化能源结构，促进绿色低碳发展。项目以熔 融盐作为蓄热介质，在电网低谷时段进行蓄能，在电网负荷高峰时段释放能量，从而提高电 网稳定性。该项目投运后，龙山电厂火电机组的调峰能力将在原有基础上增加100兆瓦，顶 峰能力增加30—60兆瓦，机组深调期间可实现边储边放，最大供汽量达23 0吨/小时。 作为一种清洁、高效、环保的新型储能方式，火电耦合熔盐储能技术具有响应速度快、寿命 长、维护成本低等诸多优点。项目成功实施后，每年将消纳新能源约5.2亿千瓦时，对我国能 源结构转型和改善大气环境质量起到积极的推动作用。 第十三届储能国际峰会暨展览会 ESIE 2025 第十三届储能国际峰会暨展览会（ESIE 2 ...