【11月16日CME"美联储观察"公布美联储利率调整概率】11月16日，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为55.6%。此外，美联储到明年1月累计降息25 个基点的概率为48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

And we have Kevin Hanks from the CBOE. The pre-bell playbook. Well, it's done.It passes through the House and now we can sort of rest easy that the 43 days are finished. At the same time, we won't be getting some of the reports cuz they didn't have the people to do them, right. >> Good morning, Nicole.Yes. The good news is the government shutdown's over. President Trump signed the bill last night reopening the government.Now for the financial markets, Caroline Levit, the uh White House press secretary, came ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently uncertain about its next steps, with expectations leaning towards a pause in rate cuts for December, following a reduction of 150 basis points over the past year [2][3] - The economy is showing signs of resilience, with earnings reports for the third quarter indicating a 14% year-over-year increase, surpassing initial expectations of a 6.5% increase [7][5] - Despite concerns about inflation and the labor market, the overall economic indicators suggest that the economy does not require further support through interest rate cuts [8][14] Market Performance - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7000 by the end of the year, with a potential increase to 7700 by the end of next year, indicating a continued bullish market outlook [16][17] - The market has already reacted positively to the potential reopening of the US government, with expectations of a year-end rally [19][20] Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has been influenced by geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the accumulation of gold by central banks [24][26] - Predictions for gold prices suggest a rise to 5000 by the end of next year and 10,000 by the end of the decade, driven by both international and domestic factors [26][27] Currency and Stablecoin Trends - The US dollar is expected to weaken, but there is a contrarian view suggesting that stablecoins, which are backed by liquid assets like Treasury bills, may bolster the dollar's strength [27][30] - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting stablecoins as a viable financial solution, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has hindered access to key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures [1] - If the government shutdown does not cause further disruptions, the Federal Reserve will continue to receive employment and inflation reports, which could impact future rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Improvements in employment conditions or a surge in inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, although the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [1] - The more hawkish tone from the recent FOMC meeting suggests that there may only be one opportunity for a rate cut in the first half of next year [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping to as low as $110,000, a 3% decrease following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut [1][2] - Despite the anticipated rate cut of 0.25%, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks, indicating a more cautious market sentiment [2][4] - Sentiment on prediction markets for Bitcoin has also decreased sharply, with the likelihood of Bitcoin rising to $120,000 dropping from 75% to 58% [3] Market Reactions - The sell-off in Bitcoin is attributed to a combination of "sell the news" behavior and Powell's hawkish statements, rather than the rate cut itself [4] - Institutional investment remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows of $202.48 million on October 28, totaling $62.3 billion in cumulative net inflows [5] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price opened at $112,925 and fell to a low of $109,265, indicating strong selling pressure [6] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is at 44.87, suggesting a neutral zone with a slight bearish tilt, while the four-hour chart shows an RSI of 36.38, indicating increasing selling pressure [7][8]

Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has confirmed five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with President Trump expected to make a decision by year-end [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the state of the labor market, rather than the selection of the new Fed Chair [2][3] - There is an expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates this week, with attention on guidance for future meetings, particularly December [5][6] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, but consumer data remains strong, indicating resilience in the economy [8][10] - Earnings reports from companies are generally positive, with net profit margins for S&P 500 companies above their five-year average for six consecutive quarters [21][22] - There is optimism regarding job growth and capital expenditure outlook, with expectations for a broadening of economic activity beyond just healthcare and AI sectors [15][31] Group 3 - The US and China are reportedly moving towards a framework for a potential trade agreement, which could positively impact both economies [17][20] - Corporate earnings season is ongoing, with high expectations for tech earnings and a focus on how markets will respond to these results [26][30] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated, with discussions around the end of quantitative tightening gaining traction [32][35]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices collectively rose, reaching new historical highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.79% for the week [1] - Major technology stocks saw significant gains, with Micron Technology rising nearly 6% and Ford Motor Company increasing over 12%, marking its best single-day performance since March 2020 [1] - Tesla's stock fell over 3% due to a decline in net profit despite a 12% year-on-year revenue increase, reporting $28.1 billion in revenue and a net profit of $1.37 billion [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver experienced slight declines, with spot gold ending a nine-week rising streak, down 3.35% for the week, while COMEX gold futures fell 2.25% [2] - The WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.5 per barrel, down 0.47%, but up 7.6% for the week, while Brent crude oil fell 0.08% to $65.94 per barrel, also up 7.59% for the week [2] - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of inflation data next month, marking the first time in over 70 years that such data could be missing, which could create uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in adjusting interest rates [2][3]

Core Insights - Key U.S. inflation data is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The upcoming inflation data will be crucial for determining the pace of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].

Domestic Developments - Jiangsu province ranks first in the national intellectual property protection satisfaction survey with a score of 84.30, indicating comprehensive and balanced protection measures [3] - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment has released the "Carbon Emission Accounting Guidelines for Industrial Parks," effective from October 10, 2025, marking the first provincial-level standard for carbon emission accounting in industrial parks [3] - As of October 11, 2023, China's express delivery volume has exceeded 1.5 billion packages this year, 37 days ahead of the previous year's milestone, reflecting continuous growth in the express delivery market [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - Since the release of the "Six Merger Guidelines," there have been 996 new merger projects in the Shanghai market, with 114 major asset restructurings amounting to 308.64 billion yuan and 882 non-major restructurings totaling 444.9 billion yuan [5] Global Economic Indicators - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 1.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 98.3% [6] - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 53% [6] - The Beijing Property Exchange has launched a capital increase project for National Pension Insurance, with a fundraising period from October 13 to December 5, aiming to raise funds for core tier one capital [6]