2026 年 01 月 07 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：大幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24335 | 690 | 1930 | 2880 | 3420 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24695 | ー | l | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3134 | 44 | 177 | 270 | 455 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 551669 | 215948 | 198032 | 378781 | 444784 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 253076 | -8056 | -46565 | -5980 | 48494 | | | LM ...

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the U.S. labor market will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment path this year, with multiple employment data releases expected to provide insights into the overall labor market condition [1] Group 1: Employment Data Releases - The ADP National Employment Report is set to be released, with a consensus forecast predicting an addition of 47,000 private sector jobs in December, rebounding from a negative growth of 32,000 in November [1] - The JOLTS report will provide data on job vacancies and labor turnover, with expectations of job vacancies slightly decreasing to 7.6 million in November, although some analysts predict an increase to 7.8 million [2][3] - The Indeed job posting index showed a rebound in November and has remained high in the first two weeks of December, indicating strong labor demand [3] Group 2: Unemployment Rate Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. unemployment rate will slightly decrease from 4.6% in November to 4.5% in December, which may boost investor confidence [4] - The unemployment rate is considered a reliable indicator of labor market conditions, especially in the context of government shutdowns and labor supply issues distorting other data [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - If the labor market shows signs of recovery, the Federal Reserve may choose to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting on January 27-28, with a potential for a prolonged pause [5] - The Federal Reserve anticipates only one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, while market expectations suggest at least two cuts this year, with rates potentially dropping to a range of 3% to 3.25% by early December [5]

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为40.7%，维持利率不变的概率为52.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为6.5%。 ...

1月6日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0173，上调57点。 美联储票委卡什卡利：利率进一步下调的空间已十分有限 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为81.7% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为43.2%，维持利率不变的概率为49.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.2%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 当地时间周一，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利表示，他认为美联储距离停止降息已经非常接 近。在当天的采访中，这位央行官员表示，当前政策判断的关键在于：美联储究竟应更加关注正在放缓 的劳动力市场，还是仍然偏高、且具有粘性的通胀水平。"我的判断是，我们现在的政策立场已经非常 接近'中性'，"卡什卡利指出，"我们需要更多数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更 值得担忧。随后， ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，1月6日，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变 的概率为81.7%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.2%，维持利率不变的概率为49.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为7.2%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月5日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0230，上调58点。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为82.8% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为17.2%，维持利率不变的概率为82.8%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为44.1%，维持利率不变的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.0%。 责任编辑：郭建 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月5日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0230，上调58点。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为82.8% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为17.2%，维持利率不变的概率为82.8%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为44.1%，维持利率不变的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.0%。 责任编辑：郭建 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为17.2%，维持利率不变的概率为82.8%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为44.1%，维持利率不变的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasurys showed little change as the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut appears low [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions indicate stability in U.S. Treasurys, reflecting investor sentiment regarding interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance suggests that any rate cuts are not imminent, which influences Treasury yields and investor strategies [1]

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为14.9%，维持利率不变的概率为85.1%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为51.7%，维持利率不变的概率为42.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为5.9%。 ...

US stocks wavered after the opening bell on Tuesday, as Wall Street looked to regroup after a tech-led slide to begin the final stretch of 2025. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped by about 0.1%, while the blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed about 0.2%. The major Wall Street indexes fell modestly Monday, as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) led megacaps lower amid a small rotation out of tech stocks. Traders are reassessing — and perhaps taking profits b ...