Group 1 - Latest inflation data is not expected to disrupt the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy [1] - Trump is advocating for the removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board [1] - Paramount's Skydance is considering a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery [1]

Key economic data released Thursday indicate that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of stagflation, a challenging mix of sluggish growth, a weakening labor market, and rising prices. Despite these concerns, crypto market participants remain optimistic, focusing instead on anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and signals from traditional markets as drivers for higher crypto valuations. "The underlying driver of this market cycle is a monetary tailwind, and that remains intact, despite the risk of stag ...

Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 reached 263,000, marking a near four-year high [1] - U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, with the annual increase in inflation being the largest in seven months [9] Federal Reserve Expectations - Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings, predicts the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points next week and another 25 basis points by year-end [2] - Futures trading indicates a strong expectation that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting, with a 7% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 climbed 0.85% to close at 6,587.47 points, while the Nasdaq gained 0.72% to 22,043.08 points, and the Dow rose 1.36% to 46,108.00 points [7][9] - Tesla's stock increased by 6%, contributing to record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [5][9] - Micron Technology's shares jumped 7.5% to $150.55 after Citigroup raised its price target from $150 to $175 [6][9] - Warner Bros Discovery surged 29% following reports of a potential majority cash bid from Paramount Skydance [6][9] Sector Performance - Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, with materials leading at a 2.14% increase, followed by a 1.73% gain in health care [10] - Centene's stock jumped 9% after reaffirming its annual profit forecast and meeting quality ratings expectations for its Medicare plans [10] Market Activity - Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones in the S&P 500 by a ratio of 6.8-to-one [8][10] - The S&P 500 recorded 42 new highs and 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq saw 143 new highs and 42 new lows [8][10] - Heavy trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.2 billion shares, compared to an average of 16.1 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions [8][10]

Core Insights - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was higher than expected, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][4][10] - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, with expectations for three cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting pressure on the Fed to respond to labor market conditions and inflation [5][6][12] - There are concerns about stagflation, as interest costs are projected to grow faster than GDP, which is only expected to grow at 1-2% [20][21] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core CPI remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped slightly, suggesting mixed signals for inflation [2][4] - The Fed is under pressure to ease monetary policy, which could lead to elevated inflation levels in the future [4][10][14] - The market is pricing in expectations for multiple rate cuts, indicating a belief that the Fed will need to act to support the labor market [5][6][12] Labor Market Dynamics - The Fed has shifted focus back to the labor market after a prolonged period of robust job growth, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][10] - Seasonal hiring trends during the holiday period may temporarily boost labor market numbers, but these are expected to be transitory [10][12] Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, as they could either raise prices or reduce demand, potentially leading to deflation [16][17][18] - The resolution of trade policies, particularly with China, will be crucial in determining the long-term effects of tariffs on the economy [19] Economic Growth Concerns - There are significant concerns about stagflation, as interest costs are projected to outpace economic growth, which could hinder overall economic stability [20][21][22] - The potential for AI and the fourth industrial revolution to drive economic growth is seen as a critical factor in overcoming current economic challenges [22]

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The market has fully priced in a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings this year, totaling a 75 basis points reduction [2] - The market may be slightly disappointed if the Fed does not cut by 50 basis points [2] - The Fed is implicitly accepting a 3% inflation rate, despite aiming for 2%, and is prioritizing jobs data, which is currently weak, as the reason for cutting rates [3] - The expectation is that the Fed funds rate will eventually be brought down to 3% with cuts in every successive meeting [4] Economic Outlook - There is very little to no risk of recession or stagflation, with a 3% GDP print expected for the current quarter, following a 33% print last quarter [3][4] - Equity markets and credit spreads, currently at 300 in the high yield market, indicate growth and negate the possibility of recession or stagflation [5] - A significant stimulus package, along with productivity gains from AI, is expected to further boost the economy [6] - One trillion is expected to be spent in data centers [7] Credit Market Opportunities - Public market spreads have tightened, and rates have come down, but new issuance provides opportunities to gain alpha [8] - Direct lending is experiencing its most prolific period, with seven deals approved through the investment committee in the last week [9] - Lower interest rates are expected to spur more transactions, refinancings, and new issue activity for private equity [10] - Asset-based lending, particularly in financing property, plant, and equipment in the AI sector, offers attractive risk-adjusted returns with 60% LTVs and potential returns in the low to mid-teens [12][13] - Private credit offers a 500 basis point incremental spread pickup compared to public credit [13]

Group 1 - The investing group Reading the Markets, led by Michael Kramer, provides daily commentary and videos to help members understand market dynamics and trends [1] - The group offers education on macro trends, interest rates, and currency movements to assist members in making informed investment decisions [1] - Subscribers benefit from unprecedented access to expert analysis at a fraction of the cost compared to similar services [1] Group 2 - Michael Kramer is affiliated with Mott Capital Management but operates independently, providing his own analyses and opinions [3] - The report emphasizes that the information is for educational purposes and should not be considered as specific investment advice [3] - There is no guarantee of completeness or accuracy in the analyses provided, and past performance does not indicate future results [3]

Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 263K, exceeding the consensus of 240K, marking the highest level since fall 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [13] - Headline CPI increased by 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, while Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [13] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates, aligning with market consensus, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in Europe [5] - The Federal Reserve is under political pressure to consider a 50 basis points rate cut despite the recent inflation and jobless claims data, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for next week [13] Market Trends - Positive money flows were observed in major tech stocks including Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, while Apple showed neutral flows [7] - The stock market remains elevated above support levels, but there are signs of losing internal momentum as indicated by RSI divergence [13] Commodity Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its oil supply growth estimate down to 2.7 million barrels per day from a prior estimate of 5.2 million barrels per day, leading to selling pressure in the oil market [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain cash reserves to capitalize on new opportunities and adjust hedge levels accordingly, particularly for high beta stocks [14] - A traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy may need reevaluation, focusing on high-quality bonds with shorter durations due to unfavorable risk-reward dynamics for long-duration bonds [15]

Market Performance - All three major U.S. equity benchmarks, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones, reached record highs as investors favored risk assets amid expectations of falling interest rates [1][2] - The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,585.53, the Nasdaq 100 increased 0.7% to 24,012.41, and the Dow Jones jumped 1.3% to 46,087.94 [2][7] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF increased by 0.8% to $604.49, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% to $461.58 [7] Sector Performance - All 11 S&P sectors experienced gains, with consumer discretionary, materials, and financials leading the way [3] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, increasing by 1.3%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund lagged with a 0.1% rise [7] Company Performance - Top gainers in the S&P 500 included Synopsys, Inc. (+11.11%), Centene Corporation (+10.66%), and Micron Technology, Inc. (+9.57%) [8] - Notable losers included Delta Air Lines, Inc. (-4.30%), Oracle Corporation (-3.38%), and Netflix, Inc. (-2.83%) [9]

Core Insights - Markets are shifting focus from inflation data to signs of a faltering U.S. labor market, indicating concerns about a deeper economic slowdown [1] - Consumer prices rose more than expected in August, with the headline rate at 2.9% and the core rate at 3.1%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, reflecting a deteriorating employment situation [3] Economic Indicators - The rise in consumer prices suggests the Federal Reserve may hesitate to cut interest rates, despite the labor market concerns [2][6] - The increase in jobless claims indicates a potential shift towards stagflation, characterized by high inflation and stagnant growth [5] - Traders are betting on a rate cut from the Fed, but the current data complicates the economic outlook [6] Market Reactions - Crypto markets initially reacted negatively to inflation data but rebounded as employment data took precedence, with notable gains in altcoins [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since April, reflecting investor sentiment towards economic conditions [3] Future Outlook - Economists predict challenging months ahead as tariff impacts continue to affect the economy, leading to higher prices and potential layoffs [7]

LIVE Dow Hits New High as Stocks Stage a Broad Rally Last Updated: 7 min ago Gold Tops Inflation-Adjusted Peak From the 1980s as Stagflation Risks Mount By Martin Baccardax Gold prices extended their extraordinary gains, with bullion prices surpassing their inflation-adjusted record set more than 4 decades ago. Spot gold prices rose 0.1% on the session to $3,656.40 an ounce, topping the inflation-adjusted record of $3,498.77 an ounce established in 1980. The gains followed another set of economic data sugge ...