Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.19% on December 12, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Trends - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with recent negative spreads observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, impacting mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Decoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s why I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, everybody knows the market is forward looking, b ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to $93,000 after initially dropping to $89,000 following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, showing a marginal increase over the past 24 hours [1] - Altcoins, including Cardano's ADA and Avalanche's AVAX, experienced declines of 6%-7%, while Ether (ETH) was down 3% but remained above $3,200 [1] Stock Market Correlation - Bitcoin's late-day bounce coincided with a slight recovery in U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq closing down just 0.25% after being as much as 1.5% lower, while the S&P 500 ended modestly in the green and the DJIA gained 1.3% [2] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with silver rising 5% to an all-time high of $64 per ounce and gold climbing over 1% to near $4,300, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar index [2] Crypto Market Dynamics - Crypto exchange Gemini gained over 30% after receiving regulatory approval to offer prediction markets in the U.S., highlighting positive developments within the crypto sector [3] - Jasper De Maere from Wintermute noted a growing decoupling of crypto from equities, with only 18% of sessions in the past year showing BTC outperforming the Nasdaq on macro days, indicating that the recent rate cut may have been fully priced in [4] - Concerns about stagflation are emerging, shifting market focus from Fed policy to U.S. crypto regulation as a potential major driver [4] Selling Pressure Analysis - Analytics firm Swissblock reported that the downward pressure on Bitcoin is waning, with signs of market stabilization, although it is not yet fully confirmed [5] - The second wave of selling pressure is noted to be weaker than the first, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, in light of recent CFTC data and the potential for interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and CFTC Data - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions was only updated until October 28, showing a significant increase in both gold and silver net long positions, with gold up 14.7% and silver up 22.4% [2][6]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 80 to 72, marking the lowest level since August 2021, with a cumulative decline of 20.7% this year [2][21]. - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising to nearly 90% [2][24]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to consider their strategies for the period between potential rate cuts in December and April, as the market anticipates a 50% chance of another cut in April [2][26]. - The article suggests that if Trump were to regain influence over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to further rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices [26][29]. - The current market dynamics indicate a strong demand for physical gold, which may not be fully reflected in futures market positions, suggesting a potential for price increases [16][30]. Group 3: Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, net long positions in gold futures have decreased by 42%, while silver has seen a 35% increase [7][8]. - Platinum and copper have also shown significant changes, with copper net positions turning positive for the first time this year [10][13]. - The article highlights that the gold price has remained high despite a reduction in long positions, indicating strong physical demand [16][19]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and potential stagflation, which typically favors investments in commodities [29][30]. - The relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices is emphasized, suggesting that a decline in rates could lead to higher gold prices, especially if inflation persists [30][32].

分组1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing significant division among its members regarding interest rate policy, with some advocating for aggressive cuts while others oppose them [1][2][7] - The FOMC's next meeting on December 10 is expected to result in a 25-basis-point rate cut, with futures traders estimating a 87% probability of this outcome [6][10] - The FOMC's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and maximum employment, but current economic pressures, including tariffs, are pushing the economy towards stagflation [3][5][13] 分组2 - Stagflation is characterized by rising inflation, stagnant economic growth, and high unemployment, which poses a challenge for the FOMC's monetary policy tools [13][14] - Recent economic indicators show inflation has risen every month since tariffs were implemented, unemployment reached a four-year high in September, and hiring has slowed significantly [13][12] - If the FOMC's December projections indicate increased concern about stagflation, it could lead to negative market reactions, particularly in the stock market [15][11]

Tom Lee has had a front row seat to more than a fair share of stock market pops and drops. Lee, a veteran Wall Street analyst who has tracked the stock market since the 1990s, is the founder of Fundstrat, a respected equity research firm that advises money managers and high-net worth investors. His extensive stock market experience means he has navigated the internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. Those experiences taught him valuable investing insights abo ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny as President Trump seeks to replace Chair Jerome Powell, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting a potential announcement before Christmas [1][6] - Ray Dalio warns of a "debt death spiral" due to the U.S. national debt reaching approximately $37.86 trillion, which could lead to a decline in the value of the dollar and bonds if inflation is not controlled [3][6] - Dalio draws parallels between the current economic climate and the early 1970s, highlighting concerns over inflation and the effectiveness of fiat currencies as stores of wealth [4][8] Economic Conditions - The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, while inflation continues to erode purchasing power [6][8] - Experts are warning of 'stagflation,' characterized by moderate GDP growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment rates [7][8] Investment Strategies - Dalio advocates for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 15% to gold due to its historical performance during market downturns [10][11] - Jeffrey Gundlach supports a significant allocation to gold, calling it an "insurance policy" amid ongoing dollar weakness [12] Real Estate and Alternative Investments - Real estate is highlighted as a strong hedge against inflation, with property values and rental income typically rising during inflationary periods [16] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived and Homeshares offer accessible ways for investors to engage in real estate without the burdens of direct property management [19][21] - Art investment is emerging as an attractive option for diversification, with platforms like Masterworks allowing investors to buy shares in high-value artworks [24][26]

In late October, the FOMC voted 10-2 to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. While non-unanimous FOMC votes have occurred from time to time, what Wall Street and investors witnessed in October was truly dubious.The FOMC can also purchase or sell long-term Treasury bonds, which would raise or lower long-term yields depending on the action (note: bond prices and bond yields are inversely related).Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the 11 other members of the Federal Open Mar ...

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of December 5, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.79% [1] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) has a significant influence on Treasury yields, with the current FFR at 3.89% [2] Yield Trends - The 30-year Treasury yield reached a high of 5.35% and a low of 0.99%, currently at 4.79%, reflecting a basis point increase of 380 from its low [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated between a high of 5.26% and a low of 0.52%, currently at 4.14%, with a basis point increase of 362 from its low [2] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, often serving as a leading indicator for recessions [5] - The 10-2 spread has been a reliable indicator, with negative spreads typically occurring before recessions, leading to an average of 48 weeks before a recession starts [8][11] Mortgage Rates - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, which have recently declined despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.19% [13] Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [14]

Louis Navellier has seen a thing or two over the years. Navellier, a veteran money manager who has been navigating the stock market since the 1980s, is the founder of Navellier & Associates, a firm with about $1 billion in assets under management. His long career means he has managed money through the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s, the internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. Along the way, he learned some valuable insights about marke ...