Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts in the coming months to protect the U.S. labor market, arguing that current rates are too high [1][2]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate - Miran estimates the neutral interest rate at approximately 2.5%, which is notably lower than the Federal Reserve officials' median forecast of 3% [2]. - He suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated in the past and is currently under downward pressure due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Cuts - Miran believes that maintaining short-term rates about 2 percentage points above the appropriate level could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [2]. - He opposed the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower rates by only 0.25 percentage points, advocating instead for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Miran hopes for an additional 1.25 percentage points reduction in the remaining two FOMC meetings of the year, contrasting with the median forecast of a 0.5 percentage point cut from other officials [2]. Group 3: Inflation Target and Policy Independence - Miran expressed potential support for abandoning the precise 2% inflation target, emphasizing that any adjustment should occur only after achieving and maintaining that target for a period [3]. - He stated that his call for significant rate cuts is not a panic response but a necessary measure to mitigate rising risks associated with prolonged high rates [3]. - Miran's stance aligns with President Trump's requests for aggressive rate cuts, yet he maintains a position of independence within the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial reactions to Miran's speech have been skeptical, with observers questioning the assertion that current monetary policy is significantly tight given the still accommodative financial environment and near-full employment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan indicated that interest rates are too high and emphasized the necessity for significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market [1] Group 1 - Milan's speech marks his first policy address since being appointed by President Donald Trump, where he discussed the reasons for a decline in the neutral interest rate that is neither stimulative nor restrictive [1] - He noted that the previously overestimated neutral interest rate has recently declined due to tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1] - Milan warned that maintaining short-term interest rates at approximately 2 percentage points is excessively tight, leading to unnecessary layoffs and an increased risk of unemployment [1]

风险提示及免责条款 美联储理事米兰：当前利率非常有限制性。适当的联邦基金利率大约在2%-2.5%。预计中性利率将接近 零。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

今日周一(9月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于10185一线上方，今日开盘于9971元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 10247元/千克，上涨3.11%，最高触及10277元/千克，最低下探9964元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走 势。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银继续刷新高点，已经破位新高，暂时收盘在10250附近。交易还是以回落做多为主，下方关注10000，9800两个支撑 点，如果给出回落，再做有效多单，预计十一前后沪银也可能会有调整空间。 【要闻速递】 在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22 日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示， 这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显出当前利率政策的分歧。 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示，自己将基于对经 济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓就职，并在会上支持降息50个基 点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic logic behind different interest rate patterns is influenced by the nature of the economic landing, affecting the slope and space of U.S. Treasury yields [2][27] - In preventive rate cuts, the decline in Treasury yields is smaller and rebounds sooner, while in recessionary cuts, the recovery in yields occurs later [2][28] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield is often associated with the pace of rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][28] Group 3 - Despite the restart of rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to rising long-term nominal neutral rates in the range of 3-3.5% [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but economic forecasts suggest the Fed may only cut rates once if inflation remains above target [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with significant upward pressure from debt supply expansion and policy uncertainty [3][56]

点阵图惊现两大阵营：分歧表面化 2025年9月的最新点阵图清晰地展示了FOMC内部的分裂。这种分裂并非首次出现，在2025年3月和6月的点阵图中也曾显现。 具体来看，两大阵营以"年内降息75个基点"为分界线： 大摩报告认为，美联储内部对2025年降息路径存在显著分歧，19名官员中有10人支持降息75个基点或更多，另9人持反对意见。这种分歧的核心并非传 统的鹰鸽之争，而是源于对长期"中性利率"水平的不同认知。近期美国劳动力增长停滞，潜在经济增长或将放缓，进而对中性利率构成强大的下行压 力。 最新的点阵图显示，在19名FOMC成员中，有10人认为今年降息75个基点或更多是合适的政策路径。与此同时，另外9名成员则认为降息幅度应低于75 个基点。 然而，将这种分歧简单地标签化为"鸽派"与"鹰派"之争，可能会忽略更深层次的动态。据追风交易台消息，大摩的在19日的报告中指出， 这两个阵营的 根本分歧在于对"中性利率（r*）"水平的认知不同。尽管双方都认同应在2026年或最晚2027年中期将政策利率恢复至中性水平，但"中性"究竟在何 处，他们并无共识。 更关键的是， 报告观察到美国劳动力增长已陷入停滞，这预示着潜在经济增长 ...

重磅数据或将扰动美联储降息前景。 在美联储重启降息后，美股三大指数本周集体创出历史新高。根据日程安排，美联储最青睐的通胀指标 ——美国8月核心PCE物价指数将于9月26日发布。另外，美联储官员们也将于下周密集发声，或将释放 后续货币政策走向的信号。 站在当前时点，华尔街正押注美联储未来将更快、更大幅度地降息。据LSEG数据，期货市场押注美联 储基准短期利率将在明年年底降至3%以下，远低于当前略高于4%的水平，也低于美联储官员们预测的 3.4%。 重磅数据来袭 目前华尔街一致预期，美联储将在10月、12月继续降息。美联储也暗示未来将进一步下调利率，以支撑 疲弱的劳动力市场。 高盛集团对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储已明确表示，后续还计 划进行一系列降息，股票市场显然已经嗅到了这一积极信号。看涨叙事并未因上周的美联储会议而动 摇，反而推动周期股相对防御股的走势再创新高。 展望下周，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数即将出炉。市场将借此评估关税政 策是否推高了美国物价水平，如果迹象表明影响有限，那么将进一步为美联储降息扫清障碍。 美联储主席鲍威尔在本 ...

来源：前主编 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4.00%至4.25%之间。 投资者确信美联储将在周三进行今年首次政策利率下调。近期数据支持适度降息，但美联储明智的做法 是避免暗示未来将进一步降息或果断转向宽松政策。就目前而言，数据过于混乱，不适合任何此类转 变，央行需要保持开放心态。 劳动力市场比美联储政策制定者上次开会时所认为的要更为疲软。近期的数据修正大幅下调了截至三月 份的年就业人数预估，而最新一周的初请失业金人数显示增加至26.3万人，为四年来的最高水平。这些 数字众所周知波动很大，但就业市场显然正在走弱。 这似乎需要强有力的货币刺激。问题在于，通胀尚未可靠地朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。八月份，剔除 食品和能源的消费者价格指数（即所谓的核心CPI）环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%。这与预期大致相 符，并未给投资者任何理由怀疑本周政策利率会被下调。但事实仍然是：高于目标的通胀顽固地拒绝回 落。 美联储继续假设，当前4.25%至4.5%的政策利率正在温和地抑制需求，足以在适当时候使通胀回归目 标。也许是这样。但再次强调，需要保持谨慎。中性利率——即既不增加也不减少需求的水平 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] - The decision to cut rates is based on weak economic data, easing inflation pressures, and a weakening labor market, which reinforced market expectations for a rate cut [1][4] - Financial markets exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, with major U.S. stock indices initially rising but then retreating after the announcement, indicating a typical "buy the fact" reaction [1] Group 2 - The Fed's future rate cut pace will depend on three interconnected issues: the severity of the labor market's downturn, the speed at which policymakers adjust rates to neutral levels, and how to anchor the "neutral rate" in the current economic environment [1] - The Fed has expressed increased concern over "downside risks" in the labor market, adjusting its previous assessment of a "strong labor market" to a view of "slowing job growth and rising unemployment" [4] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, it is acting more slowly than the European Central Bank, and inflation remains a core constraint on further rate cuts, alongside risks in the housing market [4][5] Group 3 - The Fed views stabilizing long-term inflation expectations as a core monetary policy goal, with internal structural pressures on inflation still present despite manageable overall inflation [5] - The housing market shows signs of cooling, with weak demand and low existing home sales, which directly impacts monetary policy decisions [5] - Political uncertainties may influence the pace of rate cuts, but the Fed's independence is expected to maintain a gradual adjustment policy [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and believes that similar cuts in the last two meetings of the year would be appropriate [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed decided to lower the policy interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% following a significant drop in monthly job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][3] - Kashkari initially thought only two rate cuts of 25 basis points were necessary for the year but changed his view due to declining job creation [2] - Other Fed officials have differing opinions, with some suggesting only one more cut or no cuts at all, indicating a more cautious stance on inflation [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Kashkari expressed concerns about the risk of a sharp rise in unemployment, which justifies the need for the Fed to take action to support the labor market [2] - He noted that the risk of tariffs causing a significant rise in inflation is low unless there are substantial increases in tariff rates or other supply-side shocks [2] - Kashkari believes the neutral interest rate has risen to 3.1%, suggesting that the Fed's policy is not as tight as previously thought [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Kashkari indicated that if the labor market weakens more rapidly than expected, the Fed may need to cut rates more quickly [3] - He also mentioned that if the labor market proves resilient or inflation unexpectedly rises, the Fed should be prepared to pause or maintain the current policy rate [3]