Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a new round of price increases amid efforts to combat "involution" and low-price competition, with Guangdong province raising the base price to 1.4 yuan per ticket starting August 4 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong province has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, bringing the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1]. - Major express companies, including the "Tongda system," have begun implementing price increases, particularly for 0.1 kg special items, with increases ranging from 0.4 to 0.5 yuan [1][3]. - The price adjustments are a response to the ongoing decline in single-ticket prices, which had fallen below 2 yuan for some companies in the second quarter of this year [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been trapped in a cycle of "low-price for volume" competition, leading to reduced profit margins for delivery personnel and poor service quality [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, with recent meetings highlighting the importance of maintaining a healthy market order [2][6]. - The express delivery sector has seen significant price drops, with some areas reporting ticket prices as low as 0.8 yuan, prompting calls for a shift from price wars to quality-focused competition [4][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies have previously intervened to address low-price competition, with measures introduced in 2021 aimed at protecting the rights of delivery personnel and stabilizing prices [6][7]. - The National Postal Administration has reiterated its commitment to combating "involution" and ensuring fair competition within the industry [8]. - The recent price increases may signal a shift towards more stable pricing, as regulatory efforts continue to discourage unsustainable pricing practices [8].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the express delivery industry in China, particularly the recent regulatory measures aimed at reducing vicious price competition and promoting healthy competition [1][3][19]. Key Points and Arguments - **Regulatory Measures**: The State Post Bureau held a high-level meeting to address the issue of excessive competition in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for companies to commit to anti-involution measures and ensure network stability [2][3]. - **Price Increases in Guangdong**: Express delivery prices in Guangdong have increased by 0.4 to 0.5 yuan, based on reasonable cost assessments, aimed at ensuring fair compensation for delivery personnel and improving profit margins for franchisees [1][5][8]. - **Rural Issues**: The meeting highlighted the need to resolve illegal charges for package collection in rural areas, which stem from low delivery fees. The solution involves raising collection prices to ensure reasonable compensation and prevent franchisee defaults [6][19]. - **Future Development**: The express delivery industry is expected to continue implementing anti-involution measures through enhanced regulation and self-discipline among companies, leading to high-quality development [7][19]. - **Impact of Price Adjustments**: The price adjustments in Guangdong are primarily focused on small and electronic items, with base prices now ranging from 0.95 to 1 yuan. This adjustment is seen as necessary to restore delivery fees and profits for franchisees [8][9]. - **Comparison with Yiwu**: Unlike Yiwu's gradual price increases, Guangdong's approach is characterized by strong local regulatory determination to implement price hikes in a more immediate manner [10]. - **Regional Price Effects**: The price increase in Guangdong is likely to influence surrounding regions, such as Fujian, with potential for broader price adjustments across the industry [11][15]. - **Current Industry Challenges**: The express delivery sector has faced intense competition leading to deteriorating conditions for franchisees, with reports of major brands experiencing defaults. Single-package profits are at historical lows, and cash flow is weaker than in 2021 [4][12]. - **Future Price Trends**: The industry is expected to see further price increases during the peak season in 2025, with optimistic projections for profitability based on historical data [13][14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with lower single-package profits and greater elasticity, such as Shentong, while also considering leading companies like YTO and ZTO for balanced risk and return [18]. - **Long-term Industry Impact**: The anti-involution measures are anticipated to have a profound impact on the express delivery sector, improving profitability and reducing social risks associated with over-competition [19]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The current market conditions reflect only partial expectations of price increases, suggesting potential for further upward adjustments in the future [17]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The express delivery industry is entering a new regulatory phase aimed at improving pricing structures and overall market health, which is crucial for long-term sustainability [17][19].

以史为鉴看快递"反内卷"：快递为何后来居上？ 20250804 摘要 快递行业反内卷的核心在于稳就业和保就业，该行业吸纳大量劳动力， 但劳动合同签署率和五险一金缴纳率较低，反内卷有助于提升就业质量。 快递行业单价持续下跌，部分地区派费低于成本线，导致网点亏损和快 递员薪酬拖欠。反内卷旨在提升加盟网点利润和快递员薪资待遇，而非 仅为总部利益。 消费者对快递价格小幅上涨接受度较高。测算显示，即使华南部分省份 涨价三四毛钱，总体费用率上涨不到一个百分点，下游接纳度较高。 监管部门在快递行业反内卷中发挥重要作用。邮政管理局有能力遏制恶 性竞争，通过调控政策引导行业良性发展，保障快递员合法权益。 2021 年和 2025 年快递行业均面临非理性竞争导致的产业链盈利恶化、 网点亏损等问题，监管部门均采取干预措施引导良性竞争。 2021 年第四季度快递行业单价上涨 0.3 元，上市公司单票净利增加 0.1 元，小哥和网点占 0.2 元。涨价持续 4 个月，并维持了 16 个月。 预计 2025 年这轮反内卷将持续至少四个月以上，部分地区涨价幅度可 能达到 0.3 元。若义乌和广州等主要产量区涨价 0.4 元，全国范围内可 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The National Postal Administration held a meeting on July 29, 2025, to discuss the promotion of high-quality development in the express delivery industry and to address issues related to "involution" competition [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume grew by 19.3% year-on-year, but the industry average price fell more than expected, leading to a decline in stock prices for major companies [4]. - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the express delivery sector due to favorable policies, which could lead to significant valuation recovery for companies in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Price Elasticity of Profits - The report provides scenarios for profit elasticity based on potential price increases in August 2025, with different assumptions for price hikes in various regions [4]. - Under a neutral scenario, if prices increase by 0.2 yuan in key areas, net profits for major companies are projected to be: Zhongtong 10.3 billion, Yuantong 4.5 billion, Yunda 2.0 billion, and Shentong 1.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.4%, 12.6%, 5.2%, and 86.9% respectively [4]. - In an optimistic scenario, with a nationwide price increase, net profits could rise to: Zhongtong 11.4 billion, Yuantong 5.4 billion, Yunda 2.7 billion, and Shentong 2.7 billion, with growth rates of 12.0%, 34.4%, 43.4%, and 157.5% respectively [4]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the express delivery sector, with projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]. - For example, Zhongtong Express is projected to have a net profit of 95.4 billion yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 12, while Yuantong Express is expected to have a net profit of 20.05 billion yuan with a PE of 11 [7].

华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿 港元。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 ...

中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿港元。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 ...

快递行业"反内卷"正在重塑行业生态。 多家A股上市快递公司的数据显示，今年上半年，快递单票月度平均价格持续下滑。韵达股份（002120.SZ）、申通快递（002468.SZ）等加盟制快递企业的 票均价格已跌破2元大关。 7月30日早盘，A股快递板块应声上涨，申通快递盘中一度涨停，截至当日收盘上涨8.47%。圆通速递、韵达股份盘中一度涨超7%，但截至收盘有所回落。 增量不增收现象显著 我国自2014年启动实施"快递下乡"工程以来，农村寄递物流体系历经了从无到有，从初步建立到日渐完善的过程。 2024年快递进村情况普查数据显示，截至目前，全国累计建设33.78万个"一点多能、一站多用"的村级寄递物流综合服务站，农村寄递"最后一公里"服务实 现有效拓展。 不过，农村地区快递服务网络亟待完善、服务能力待提升、运行质效有不足等问题，也成为当前制约农村寄递物流行业发展的短板。因此，要坚持综合施 策，加强设施、运力、信息、资本、技术等资源融合，构建便捷高效的农村快递服务新模式。 随着快递服务网络加速向村级下沉，基层配送矛盾正逐渐显现。21世纪经济报道记者调查发现，在部分农村地区，快递末端违规收费问题依然突出。记者查 阅黑猫 ...

本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，据国家邮政局消息，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷 式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。国信 证券认为，未来在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促 使监管、竞争、盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 智通财经获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.78%，报161.9港元，成交额1.07亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

Group 1: Acquisition Overview - Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhejiang Daniao Logistics for RMB 362.05 million [1] - The acquisition aims to enhance the company's core competitiveness and long-term sustainable development [1][2] Group 2: Daniao Logistics Business and Performance - Daniao Logistics operates in approximately 300 cities with an average daily volume exceeding 4 million orders [2][3] - The company reported a profit of approximately RMB 20 million in 2024, but incurred losses in the first four months of 2025 due to initial growth phase and increased competition [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Rationale for Acquisition - The acquisition responds to policy directives and aims to penetrate high-end markets, enhancing the product matrix [5][6] - It is expected to optimize costs and release synergistic value, improving overall profitability [5][6] Group 4: Transaction Terms and Investor Protection - The transaction includes clauses for loss compensation during the transition period and a phased payment mechanism to protect shareholder interests [6] - The acquisition does not constitute a major asset restructuring as per regulations, ensuring fair valuation [6] Group 5: Industry Outlook and Competitive Strategy - The company supports the postal authority's stance against "involution" in the industry, focusing on quality over quantity [7][8] - The strategic shift aims to transition from price competition to value competition, with expectations of rational price recovery in peak seasons [8]