郭明錤指出，目前已经确定的一个部件是该设备的可折叠显示屏。据他所说，三星显示 （Samsung Display）计划明年为这款设备生产700万至800万块可折叠面板。 "这表明，预计将于2026年下半年投入批量生产的苹果折叠屏iPhone，可能会在2027年和 2028年每年出货数百万部。"他表示，并补充说，这可能是由于其高昂的定价限制了销量，相 比之下，去年9月，仅在预售的第一个周末，苹果就售出了约3700万部iPhone 16。 至于，苹果首款"折叠屏iPhone"究竟何时才会正式推出，郭明錤警告说："在项目正式启动之 前，所有计划都可能发生变化。"此前有报道称，苹果计划在2026年秋季推出可折叠手机。 他预计这款手机将"定价较高"。郭明錤此前还曾预测， 苹果"折叠屏iPhone"的售价将在 2000至2500美元之间，而这一预测还是在特朗普发动"关税战"之前做出的。 郭明錤还指出，最近市场传闻称苹果已订购1500-2000万部"折叠屏iPhone"，但根据其基于 对多个组件的了解，"这一数量可能反映了产品2-3年生命周期内的累积需求，而不仅仅是 2026年"。 郭明錤此前还曾透露，后续苹果的折叠屏产线将 ...

Global Smartphone Market Overview - The global smartphone market is expected to see a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery phase [1] - The total global smartphone shipments are projected to reach 1.22 billion units in 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The market is anticipated to grow at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from 2025 to 2029, facing challenges from low-end replacement demand and geopolitical uncertainties [1] High-End Smartphone Market Insights - The high-end smartphone segment (priced above $600) experienced a year-on-year shipment increase of 12% in Q1 2025, driven by manufacturers' commitment to premium offerings and advancements in AI technology [4] - Apple leads the high-end market with a 59% share, showing a 10% growth year-on-year [5] - Huawei's high-end segment grew by 69%, capturing a 9% market share, while Google and Xiaomi also reported significant growths of 21% and 81% respectively [4][5] Regional Market Performance - In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Greater China), Apple holds a 61% market share in the high-end segment, with a 12% year-on-year growth [7] - In North America and Latin America, Apple dominates with a 71% market share, reflecting an 18% increase [7] - In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Apple maintains a 55% share with a 15% growth, while Samsung follows with a 37% share and a 13% increase [9] AI Smartphone Projections - The penetration rate of AI smartphones is expected to reach 34% by 2025, supported by advancements in chip capabilities and model efficiency [9] - Apple leads the global AI smartphone market with a shipment of 43.6 million units, accounting for 58% of the market [12] - In mainland China, Apple also leads with a 40% market share in AI smartphones, followed by Xiaomi with 26% [16] Foldable Smartphone Forecast - The foldable smartphone market is projected to achieve only a 0.1% year-on-year growth in 2025, with major manufacturers attempting to stimulate demand through price reductions and SKU expansions [24] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the foldable market, potentially revitalized by Apple's rumored foldable product [24] 5G Smartphone Outlook - The penetration of 5G smartphones is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating that by 2029, 88% of smartphone shipments will be 5G-enabled [26]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$58.78, reflecting a potential upside of 61.3% from the current price of HK$36.65 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10-15% YoY in 2025, driven by multiple growth drivers across various segments including optics, precision mechanics, electromagnetic drive, and automotive acoustics [1][9]. - Key growth drivers for 2025 include upgrades in optics specifications, increased adoption of VC in high-end models, expansion in automotive acoustics, and advancements in MEMS microphones for AI smartphones [9]. - The company has a solid product roadmap and is expanding into strategic markets such as robotics and AI glasses, with plans to acquire a stake in a Chinese automotive microphone module company to enhance its offerings [9]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 32,566 million in FY25, representing a YoY growth of 19.2% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 2,488.6 million in FY25, with a YoY growth of 38.5% [2][11]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.63 in FY23 to RMB 2.12 in FY25, indicating a growth of 38.5% [2][11]. Segment Performance - The revenue breakdown indicates that acoustics will contribute RMB 9,466 million in FY25, while optics is expected to generate RMB 5,672 million [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 16.9% in FY23 to 23.1% in FY25, reflecting operational efficiency and product mix enhancement [11][18]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15.8x for FY25, which is attractive compared to the expected EPS growth of 39% [12][18]. - The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, assigning different P/E multiples to various business segments [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is actively promoting its foldable smartphones, Mate X6 and Mate X5, with significant discounts, indicating a strategic push to capture market share in the recovering foldable smartphone segment [1][3][6]. Group 1: Promotions and Pricing - Huawei offers a discount of 1000 yuan on the Mate X6, bringing its starting price to 11999 yuan, while the Mate X5 has a discount of 3000 yuan, starting at 9999 yuan [1][3][6]. - The Mate 70 Pro+ also sees a discount of 500 yuan, with prices starting at 7999 yuan for the 16GB+512GB version [6][8]. Group 2: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, China's foldable smartphone shipments reached 2.84 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 53.1%, with Huawei holding a dominant market share of 76.6% [1][11]. - The overall foldable smartphone market is experiencing growth, with Huawei's innovative products like the Mate X6 and the upcoming Mate XT expected to further boost sales [9][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The foldable smartphone market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung also launching new models [11][12]. - Apple plans to enter the foldable market with its first device expected in the second half of 2026, indicating a growing interest in this segment [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Counterpoint Research predicts that 32 different foldable smartphone models will be released in 2025, highlighting the ongoing innovation and competition in the market [11][12]. - The overall smartphone market in China is projected to grow modestly, with foldable smartphones expected to reach around 10 million units in 2025, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase [12].

Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to release a foldable iPhone with innovative design features, including a punch-hole camera on the external screen and an under-display camera on the internal screen, along with integrated Touch ID on the side button [1][2]. Group 1 - The foldable iPhone's internal display will have a 14.1:10 aspect ratio, while the external display will have a 14.6:10 aspect ratio [1]. - The device is expected to feature a dual rear camera setup and a front camera that can be used in both folded and unfolded states [2]. - The anticipated price range for the first-generation foldable iPhone is between $2000 and $2300, which is approximately 14423 to 16586 Chinese Yuan at current exchange rates [2]. Group 2 - Mass production of the foldable iPhone is projected to begin in Q4 2026, with a release expected by the end of next year [2]. - The design of the external screen's punch-hole camera is similar to that of current market competitors like the Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold [1].

TOP3大新闻 国家卫健委通报关于肖某引发舆情事件调查处置进展情况 4月15日，国家卫生健康委调查组通报关于肖某引发舆情事件调查处置进展情况。通报显示，有关单位依据相关法 律法规，吊销肖某医师执业证书；撤销董某莹的毕业证书、学位证书、医师资格证书、医师执业证书。（央视新 闻） 刘晓庆深夜回应被指涉嫌偷税漏税 据报道，近日，刘晓庆被王先生实名举报涉嫌偷税漏税，上海市税务局第四稽查局已受理并启动调查。王先生举报 内容显示，2020年12月刘晓庆珠宝（宁波）有限公司向其借款330万元。2021年1月，刘晓庆通过名下上海弈熙文化 传媒中心，以"形象代言费"名义将330万元借款转为个人收入，涉嫌虚开发票逃税。 公开信息显示，刘晓庆珠宝（宁波）有限公司成立于2018年11月，法定代表人为许可筠，注册资本1000万人民币， 经营范围包括珠宝技术服务等，由许可筠、宁波晓庆企业管理咨询合伙企业（有限合伙）共同持股。变更记录显 示，2021年4月，刘晓庆已退出该公司股东行列。公开信息显示，目前，该公司已被国家税务总局宁波高新技术产 业开发区税务局列为非正常户，并于2024年7月被宁波市市场监督管理局高新技术产业开发区分局列入经营 ...

● 本报记者 张兴旺 日前，中国证券报记者从供应链公司人士处获悉，苹果给供应商提供的出货目标指引是2026年下半年推 出首款折叠屏手机，这是一款大折叠屏iPhone。预计苹果完成折叠屏iPhone供应商选择后，将会进入 NPI（新产品导入）流程。 目前，三星、华为、小米、vivo、OPPO、荣耀等厂商已推出多款折叠屏手机。市场期待苹果进入折叠 屏手机市场。据苹果产业链公司人士对中国证券报记者分析称，苹果iPhone客户基础量大，预计苹果折 叠屏iPhone市场需求大，但销量将取决于最终的定价。 对于苹果迟迟未进入折叠屏手机市场的原因，据业内人士对中国证券报记者分析称，近几年折叠屏手机 出货量不多，仍是小众市场，而苹果的策略是求稳。 据研究机构TechInsights数据显示，2024年四季度，全球折叠屏手机出货量为380万部，同比下降18%。 2024年四季度，华为占据31.2%的市场份额，超越三星，成为市场领头羊；而三星跌至第二位，市场份 额为26.7%；荣耀凭借14.3%的市场份额稳居第三位。 2024年，全球折叠屏手机市场增速开始放缓，未来，随着苹果入局，市场有望迎来复苏。据研究机构 Counterpo ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the supply chain, particularly for Apple-related products, enhancing growth potential in the second quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the tariff from 125% to 34%, with 24% of the tariff suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff on non-US origin products [2][3]. - The joint statement from the trade talks indicates that the short-term impact of the tariffs on the supply chain is largely mitigated, allowing for a more favorable environment for growth [3]. Group 2: Impact on Apple Products - Apple has announced significant price reductions for the iPhone 16 series, with the iPhone 16 Pro Max dropping by $160 and the iPhone 16 Pro by $176, aimed at boosting sales in the second quarter [2][4]. - The price cuts are expected to enhance shipment volumes, with a reported 6% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments during Q2, driven by promotional activities on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com [4]. Group 3: Future Growth and Innovations - The upcoming launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [4][5]. - The market sentiment around emerging technologies such as humanoid robots and AI glasses is expected to positively influence the valuation of core suppliers in the Apple supply chain [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks in the Apple supply chain include Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), and Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminal technologies, such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, has led to an increase in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of core suppliers, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4] - Recommended core supply chain stocks include Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, Xinwanda, and Pengding Holdings [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Changes - The US has announced a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, with only 10% remaining, effectively neutralizing the short-term impact of the tariff war on the supply chain [2] Section 2: iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are aimed at increasing sales volume and supporting supply chain growth [1][3] Section 3: Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to a rise in ASP for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Section 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the positive developments, the market has not fully recovered to pre-tariff levels, but the recent price cuts and tariff negotiations suggest a potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4]