Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Stabilizing Foreign Prices, Declining Zhengzhou Sugar Prices [1] Report Author - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Report Structure - Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies [2][5][46] - Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis [2][5][46] - Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking [2][5][46] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production forecasts for Brazil and India. International sugar prices show signs of bottoming out and are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - In the domestic market, sugar mills are gradually starting operations, increasing supply and sales pressure. However, considering factors such as tightened imports of syrup and premixes and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, which provides some support for the futures price. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. Key Points by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Given the significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, which are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and considering the high domestic sugar production cost and the current futures price near 5300, it is advisable to consider short - term long positions at low prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Go long on the January contract and short the May contract [4]. - Option strategy: Sell put options at low levels [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The ISO predicts a 1.63 - million - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption growing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Datagro has revised down the supply surplus forecast to 1 million tons, mainly due to reduced production in Brazil and India [8]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level. Although there are some changes in production factors, the overall output is still considerable. For example, the 2025/26 production is expected to be 45.02 million tons [9]. - In Thailand, the new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with an expected increase in exports [24]. - In India, the 2025/26 sugar season has started. The expected net sugar production is 30.95 million tons, and the government has approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar [33]. - **Domestic Market Conditions** - Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting operations. In Yunnan, 4 sugar mills have started operations as of now, and more are expected to start soon. In Guangxi, the number of operating sugar mills is also increasing [37]. - Import profits are relatively high, and in October, the import volume increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of sugar was 3.9054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [45]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - By October 31, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [14]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to November last year [20]. - **Thailand** - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. From January to September 2025, exports were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons [24]. - **India** - As of November 19, 2025, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra had started operations, and they had crushed 11.727 million tons of sugarcane, producing 868,100 tons of sugar [33]. - **China** - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, the total import volume of syrup and premixes was 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [45].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 2、基差：柳州现货5670，基差317（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进口 冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The external sugar price is weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, 01, has recently set a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is advised to partially take profits on short - term short positions [4][5][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 364, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the external sugar price to around 14 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO forecasts a supply surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX forecasts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons [4][9]. - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 season, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1170 million tons, the import is 500 million tons, the consumption is 1570 million tons, and the surplus change is 82 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: At the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the import cost outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in the international sugar price, the import profit was considerable [43]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from balance to surplus, with different institutions having varying forecasts of the surplus volume [4][8][34] - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is high. In October, imports increased significantly. The main contract 01 is in a downward oscillation. Considering the approaching delivery date, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. In the short - term, maintain an oscillating and weak outlook [4][8] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; in September, the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 323, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [5] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, showing a neutral situation [5] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Multiple institutions have provided forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36] - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of imported sugar outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, resulting in considerable import profits [42] 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 印度政府已批准 2025-26 榨季出口 150 万吨食糖，并决定取消甘蔗糖蜜出口 税，将该关税调整为零 150 万吨糖出口配额将按比例分配给在运营的糖厂， 分配依据为各厂过去三个季的平均产量。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market shows different supply - demand forecasts from various institutions, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market has relatively good consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, but faces challenges from global production increases and potential import impacts. Near - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 - 5600 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. DATAGRO reduced the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, which is much smaller than before. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 260 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient. The 01 contract has significant pressure around 5500 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20 million tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40 - million - ton surplus [4][8][34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In 2025, as of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The domestic sugar market shows trends in supply, demand, price, and inventory. For example, the national sugar production, consumption, import, and export data from 2024/25 to 2025/26, as well as the changes in international and domestic sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the main March contract closed down 0.78% to 13.96 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main March contract closed down 0.91% to $412.60 per ton. The raw sugar maintained a volatile market, with a weak rebound as the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries are in the harvest season. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply. The 01 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a reduction of 11,425 positions. The domestic sugar spot price remained flat. The market is waiting for the new sugar to be listed in Guangxi, and there is no obvious bullish or bearish driver for the time being. The rise of Zhengzhou sugar was due to speculative funds, but these funds have started to withdraw, and the previous speculative short - position holders have reduced their positions. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: The SR601 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a position of 370,242 contracts and a reduction of 11,425 contracts. The SR605 contract closed at 5,404 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan or 0.20%, with a position of 122,174 contracts and an increase of 4,427 contracts. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 13.96 cents per pound, down 0.11 cents or 0.78%, with a position of 179,097 contracts and an increase of 6,776 contracts. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.43 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 486,827 contracts and a reduction of 1,285 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Market Trends**: The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the London ICE white sugar futures also declined. The raw sugar market is in a volatile state with a weak rebound. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply, and the market is waiting for the new sugar in Guangxi. The rise was due to speculative funds, and now these funds are withdrawing, and short - position holders are reducing positions. It is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesia's Sugar Self - sufficiency Plan**: Indonesia plans to achieve sugar self - sufficiency by 2026, with a goal of consumer sugar self - sufficiency by 2028 and full self - sufficiency including industrial and ethanol demand by 2030. The president has urged the acceleration of this schedule [11]. - **Sugar Mill Start - up in Yunnan**: As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the started sugar mills is 13,200 tons per day, an increase of 9,700 tons per day compared to the same period last year [11]. - **Global Sugar Surplus Adjustment**: DATAGRO adjusted the global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (starting in October) from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, due to the sugar production reduction in Brazil and India. The sugar production forecast in the central - southern region of Brazil was revised from 41.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons, and the sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was adjusted from 51.6% to 51.2% [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Transaction Data of the Top 20 Seats in the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar**: The total trading volume was 217,607 lots, a decrease of 53,457 lots; the total long - position volume was 250,939 lots, a decrease of 6,309 lots; the total short - position volume was 285,700 lots, a decrease of 12,297 lots [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting a supply surplus. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is relatively resistant to decline compared to the foreign sugar market, and the near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 255 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, foreign sugar prices have been falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar has been relatively resistant to decline. The near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 620,000 - ton surplus (another mention is 750,000 tons), Datagro expects a 153,000 - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420,000 - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115,000 - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Costs**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5,086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.08 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5,679 - 5,708 yuan per ton [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. The fundamentals of raw sugar are weak, and the long - term trend is downward. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [11][12] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for the domestic market, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,403 with an increase of 5 (0.09%), trading volume of 1,703 (an increase of 116), and an open interest of 10,961 (a decrease of 108); SR01 closed at 5,475 with an increase of 18 (0.33%), trading volume of 139,545 (a decrease of 1,192), and an open interest of 373,243 (an increase of 1,282); SR05 closed at 5,405 with an increase of 8 (0.15%), trading volume of 21,900 (an increase of 6,805), and an open interest of 115,922 (an increase of 2,673) [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,730, 5,905, 6,000, 5,760, 6,015, 5,820, and 6,130 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, while others remained unchanged [6] - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 255, 430, 525, 285, 540, 345, and 655 respectively [6] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 70 (a decrease of 10), SR09 - SR5 spread was - 2 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 72 (a decrease of 13) [6] - **Import Profit**: The quota - within price and quota - outside price for Brazilian imports were 3,952 and 5,002 respectively, with a spread of 728 compared to Liuzhou, 818 compared to Rizhao, and 473 compared to the futures price; for Thai imports, the quota - within price and quota - outside price were 4,007 and 5,075 respectively, with a spread of 655 compared to Liuzhou, 745 compared to Rizhao, and 400 compared to the futures price [6] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India allows 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, lower than the industry's request of 2 million tons, and cancels the 50% export tariff on molasses; the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi starts no earlier than November 30, and enterprises need to abide by relevant regulations; the FAO sugar price index in October was 94.1, down 5.3 points (5.3%) from September and 35.4 points (27.4%) year - on - year, reaching the lowest level since December 2020 [8][9][10] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is at a historically high level, the support of ethanol for sugar weakens, and India's sugar exports may be higher than expected, so the raw sugar fundamentals are weak. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar supply is expected to increase, but the import of syrup and premixed powder is tightened, and the previous pricing cost is relatively high, so the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and be weak in the long term [11][12] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, the international sugar price resumes the downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile, so it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations; for the arbitrage strategy, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for the options strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, basis and inter - monthly spreads of different contract months [16][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The SR2501 contract is less than 2 months away from the delivery month, showing a premium over the 03 contract. It's stronger than the overseas market due to high old - sugar prices, cost support, and expected future import increases leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the contango of far - month contracts may widen as the crushing progresses. Import pressure may increase unless quota issuance is reduced or imports are restricted [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - Spot prices: Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, and Kunming is 5580 - 5740 yuan/ton [3] - China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, 150,000 tons more year - on - year. The cumulative import in the 24/25 season was 4.63 million tons, 120,000 tons less year - on - year [3] - The 25/26 season's national sugar production is estimated to increase to 1.17 million tons, with Guangxi at 680,000 tons, Yunnan at 260,000 tons, Guangdong at 60,000 tons, Inner Mongolia at 70,000 tons, and Xinjiang at 75,000 tons [3] - Zhanjiang sugar mills in the 25/26 season are expected to start crushing in late November. The first sugar mill in the 24/25 season started on November 30. The sugar cane purchase price in Guangdong may drop by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and production is expected to fall from 654,500 tons to about 600,000 tons [3] International Market - Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, with a daily average of 191,100 tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [4] - In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 3.4037 million tons of sugar cane, a 0.3% year - on - year increase. Sugar production reached 248,400 tons, a 1.25% increase. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a 1.17% decrease. The proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% last year [4] - ISMA estimates India's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 3.435 million tons (including ethanol), with 340,000 tons for ethanol [4] Price and Spread Information Futures - On November 10, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) are provided, with no price changes on that day [6] Spot - On October 30, 2025, spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, etc., and their price changes and spreads are presented [8] Basis - On November 10, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and SR contracts are given [9][11] Import Price - On November 6, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices from Brazil and Thailand, and their price changes, as well as the spreads with domestic prices are shown [12]