交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 白糖日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,401 | -9 | -0.17% | 1,514 | 969 | 7,161 | 266 | | SR01 | | 5,426 | -12 | -0.22% | 211,578 | 84079 | 417,296 | -4406 | | SR05 | | 5,383 | -13 | -0.24% | 25,895 | 15290 | 87,758 | 5008 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,410, up 7 (0.13%), volume 545 (-264), open interest 6,895 (+54) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,438, up 10 (0.18%), volume 127,499 (-48,383), open interest 421,702 (-4,713) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,396, up 7 (0.13%), volume 10,605 (-10,631), open interest 82,750 (-131) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,810, Kunming 5,905, Wuhan 6,060, Nanning 5,770, Bayuquan 6,015, Rizhao 5,870, Xi'an 6,210, all unchanged [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 372, Kunming 467, Wuhan 622, Nanning 332, Bayuquan 577, Rizhao 432, Xi'an 772 [5] Inter - month Spreads - SR5 - SR01: Spread -42, down 3; SR09 - SR5: Spread 14, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -28, down 3 [5] Import Profits - Brazil: ICE主力 15.77, premium (0.41), freight 42.00, in - quota price 4,212, out - of - quota price 5,357, spread with Liuzhou 453, spread with Rizhao 513, spread with futures 81 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 15.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,269, out - of - quota price 5,431, spread with Liuzhou 379, spread with Rizhao 439, spread with futures 7 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - Brazil exported 2,334,620.93 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average of 179,586.23 tons, up 6% from the daily average in October last year (169,516.64 tons). Last year's October export volume was 3,729,366.09 tons [7] - Processing sugar quotes were stable or down, with general trading volume [8] - Typhoon "Fengshen" and cold air will bring strong wind and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea from October 21 - 22, and cold air will cause temperature drops in South and East China [9] Logical Analysis - Internationally, global main production areas are increasing production. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the bi - weekly sugar production is likely to be higher than last year's. The decline in crude oil prices weakens ethanol's support for sugar, and the raw sugar market is bearish [10] - Domestically, the domestic market is currently supplied mainly by imported sugar. With the weakening of foreign sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the foreign market in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have broken through the previous low and are bearish in the long - term. After a short - term sharp decline, there may be a rebound. The domestic market is expected to be affected by the foreign market and may fluctuate and repair. It is recommended to short at high prices [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou spot prices, Liuzhou - Kunming spot price spreads, basis and inter - month spreads of different contracts [14][15][18]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 白糖产业日报 2025-10-21 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5438 | 10 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 421702 | -4713 1001 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8376 | -31 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -74784 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | -66 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | | 4254 539 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,391 | 2 | 0.04% | 736 | -110 | 6,554 | 267 | | SR01 | | 5,408 | 5 | 0.09% | 144,443 | -19746 | 438,116 | 4928 | | SR05 | | 5,374 | 3 | 0.06% | 11,958 | -6825 | 82,872 | 2026 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract dropped with a weekly decline of about 1.53%. Brazilian sugar production increased in mid - late September 2025, but the decline in the sugar - making ratio eased market concerns. However, due to overall production increase, the rebound of raw sugar prices was weak. Domestic spot prices continued to fall, demand was in a seasonal decline, and the sugar sales progress was expected to slow down. The futures price was gradually supported by cost and was expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the release of September imported sugar data. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to watch include domestic production and sales and new - season production estimates [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 1.53% this week [5] - **Market Outlook**: In mid - late September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%, and produced 3.14 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period last year. Domestic spot prices dropped, demand was seasonally weak, and sugar sales were expected to slow down. The futures price was supported by cost and was expected to fluctuate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract in the short term [6] - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, new - season production estimates [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US sugar March contract dropped by about 1.35% this week. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 125,628 lots, an increase of 19,284 lots from the previous week. The long position was 173,035 lots, a decrease of 2,211 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 298,663 lots, an increase of 17,073 lots from the previous week. The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 1.53% this week. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 73,648 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8,418 lots. The spread between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts was + 35 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 378 yuan/ton [13][20][30] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,810 yuan/ton, Nanning sugar in Guangxi was 5,790 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,820 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton from the previous week [34][40] 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45%. In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [43][46][50] - **Demand Side**: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points. In August 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [54][58] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is mentioned [59] - **Stock Market**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, but no specific analysis or data conclusions are provided [63]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Globally, the sugar production increase in major producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a significant increase in sugar production. The cumulative sugar production is almost the same as last year, and it is expected to remain high in the near - term. With the recent decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, and the fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, and the downward space has been opened, indicating a generally weak trend. - In the domestic market, the supply is mainly from imported sugar recently. Given the weak price trend of foreign sugar, it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will follow the trend of the foreign market in the short - term. The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies, and recommends a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [11][12]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,391 with a 0.04% increase; SR01 closed at 5,408 with a 0.09% increase; SR05 closed at 5,374 with a 0.06% increase. The trading volume of SR01 was 144,443, with a decrease of 19,746, and the open interest increased by 4,928 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis in Liuzhou was 402 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 34, down 2; SR09 - SR5 spread was 17, down 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 17, down 3 [5]. - **Import Profits**: The in - quota price for Brazilian imports was 4,278 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,444 yuan/ton. The in - quota price for Thai imports was 4,299 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,470 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil's estimated sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.355219 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's estimate and the same as in 2024. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.532937 million tons, the same as last month's estimate but down 1.6% from 2024. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.7272 million tons, up 3.3% from the previous week [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the raw sugar market is weak. The domestic market is expected to follow the foreign market in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side Trading**: Short - sell on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of sugar futures contracts [14][18][21][28][31][36].

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, but the sugar price is still considered weak after breaking through the support level and rebounding without a significant breakthrough [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures followed the raw sugar to rebound, but the amplitude was small, with weak spot prices and cautious long - position holders [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5403 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.06%, with a position of 433,188 contracts, an increase of 11,032 contracts; SR605 closed at 5371 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 0.06%, with a position of 80,846 contracts, an increase of 4,544 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 15.87 cents/pound, up 0.26 cents or 1.67%, with a position of 468,073 contracts, an increase of 5,674 contracts; US sugar 05 closed at 15.36 cents/pound, up 0.20 cents or 1.32%, with a position of 141,836 contracts, an increase of 2,493 contracts [7] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Main Contract**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply below the 5400 - yuan mark. The 01 contract closed at 5397 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan or 1.41%, with an increase in positions of 32,133 contracts. Domestic spot prices in production areas were lowered, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5800 yuan/ton and Kunming sugar at 5690 yuan/ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazilian Sugarcane Data**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared to the previous season. From April to September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.5 tons from the previous season. The sugarcane quality (measured by ATR) decreased by 0.8% [9] - **Sugar Factory Startup in Inner Mongolia**: As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operation in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start tomorrow. The white sugar price of Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai in the 2025/26 sugar - making season is 5850 yuan/ton, and the soft sugar price is 5950 yuan/ton [9] - **Indian Sugar Exports**: India exported 775,000 tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year (October 2024 to September 2025). The largest export destination was Djibouti, with an export volume of 146,000 tons, followed by Somalia with 135,000 tons and Sri Lanka with 134,000 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - **Data Graphs**: The report presents multiple data graphs, including spot price trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources from Wind, Zhengshang Institute, and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [12][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Globally, the production increase in major sugar-producing areas is being realized. Brazil is at its supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production recently. The cumulative sugar production is almost the same as last year, and it is expected to reach a historically high level. With the recent decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook for raw sugar. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, indicating a downward trend for raw sugar [10]. - In the domestic market, the supply mainly comes from imported sugar, and considering the weak price of foreign sugar recently, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the trend of the international market in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Data**: SR05 closed at 5,389 with a gain of 3 (0.06%), SR01 at 5,403 with a gain of 6 (0.11%), and SR09 at 5,371 with a gain of 1 (0.02%). The trading volume of SR05 was 846 (a decrease of 698), SR01 was 164,189 (a decrease of 164,719), and SR09 was 18,783 (a decrease of 17,030). The open interest of SR05 was 6,287 (an increase of 225), SR01 was 433,188 (an increase of 11,032), and SR09 was 80,846 (an increase of 4,544) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions, the spot prices of sugar were as follows: 5,840 in Liuzhou, 5,905 in Kunming, 6,060 in Wuhan, 5,790 in Nanning, 6,015 in Bayuquan, 5,880 in Rizhao, and 6,240 in Xi'an. The price changes were -10 in Liuzhou, -10 in Kunming, 0 in Wuhan, -20 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 0 in Rizhao, and -40 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was -32 (a decrease of 5), SR09 - SR5 spread was 18 (an increase of 2), and SR09 - SR01 spread was -14 (a decrease of 3) [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract was 15.87, with a premium of (0.30), freight of 43.25, in - quota price of 4,228, out - of - quota price of 5,509, a spread of 331 compared to Liuzhou, 371 compared to Rizhao, and - 106 compared to the futures price. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract was 15.87, with a premium of 0.89, freight of 18.00, in - quota price of 4,349, out - of - quota price of 5,536, a spread of 304 compared to Liuzhou, 344 compared to Rizhao, and - 133 compared to the futures price [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared to the previous season. From April to September 2025/26, the average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, 5.5 tons less than the previous season. The sugar quality (measured by ATR) dropped by 0.8% [5]. - Pakistan invited international bids to purchase up to 100,000 tons of white sugar, but as of October 14, no deal had been reported [6]. - Typhoons affected Yingmao Sugar's cane fields, causing an estimated 126,000 mu of sugarcane to be damaged, including 108,300 mu of lodging, 14,000 mu of flooding, and 3,700 mu of mudslides and landslides [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: - Internationally, the global major sugar - producing areas are seeing an increase in production. Brazil is at its supply peak, and with the decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, leading to a bearish outlook for raw sugar [10]. - Domestically, the supply mainly comes from imported sugar, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the international market trend in the short term [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price has broken through the previous low, with a bearish long - term trend. After a short - term sharp decline, a rebound is expected. The domestic market is expected to follow the international market and experience short - term fluctuations [15]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing information such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, cumulative sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between regions, and various sugar basis and spreads [13][17][21][27][30][32]