大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年6月25日 1、基本面：USDA：预计25/26年度全球食糖产量同比增长4.7%，消费增长1.4%，过剩1139.7万吨。 Green Pool：25/26榨季全球食糖产量增长5.3%，达1.991亿吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混 粉关税从12%调整到20%。2025年5月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计 销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期66.17%）。2025年5月中国进口食糖35万吨，同比增加 33万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.42万吨，同比减少15.07 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The short - term sugar price is affected by Brazilian production data, and the long - term trend depends on Brazil's production progress and actual output increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed supports sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar and the recent weakness of raw sugar may drag down domestic sugar prices. The short - term sugar price is expected to be weak [4]. - Raw sugar prices are falling due to expected global supply increases, and Brazilian sugar production changes are crucial. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Data**: SR2511 closed at 5,710, down 11 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 171,885 (down 10.50%) and an open interest of 349,073 (down 1.34%); SR2507 closed at 5,744, down 6 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 1,817 (down 21.38%) and an open interest of 11,080 (down 5.23%); SR2509 closed at 5,597, down 22 (0.39%), with a trading volume of 22,478 (down 26.02%) and an open interest of 51,737 (up 0.95%) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions, the spot prices in Liuzhou were 6090, in Kunming were 5860 - 6040, in Zhanjiang were 6175, in Nanning were 6160, in Bayuquan were 6420, in Rizhao were 6420, and in Xi'an were 6420 [3]. - **Import Data**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE主力 was 16.52, with a quota - free price of 4395, a tariff - included price of 5617, a spread of 473 compared to Liuzhou, 543 compared to Rizhao, and 127 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the ICE主力 was 16.52, with a quota - free price of 4431, a tariff - included price of 5664, a spread of 426 compared to Liuzhou, 496 compared to Rizhao, and 80 compared to the futures market [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **International Market**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. Short - term price is affected by production data, and long - term needs to focus on production progress and actual output increase [4]. - **Domestic Market**: Fast production and sales support prices, but incoming sugar imports and weak raw sugar may drag down prices. The short - term sugar price will be weak [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar is falling due to supply expectations, and Brazilian production is key. Domestic sugar prices will follow raw sugar in the short term [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Options: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. Third Part: Related Attachments The report includes figures such as Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative production - sales rate, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread, with data from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][13][16].

行业 白糖日报 日期 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 2025 年 6 月 24 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that sugar has started a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 17.02 cents per pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.48; the mainstream spot price is 6060 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 3 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 128 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3; the 15 spread is 40 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Crude oil prices have risen significantly; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season; Brazil exported 2.25 million tons in May, a 20% year - on - year decrease; as of May 15, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 sugar season; China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April have decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Actual Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 8.11 million tons of sugar (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7%; as of the end of April, China imported 1.74 million tons of sugar (-1.38 million tons) [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply Shortage Forecast**: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of June 1 in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 12 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 6.95 million tons (-0.92 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; as of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons); as of April 9 in the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.05 million tons of sugar (+1.31 million tons) [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [4].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 13 日 白糖：低位整理为主 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.26 | -0.16 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 125 | -3 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6060 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 36 | 2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5647 | -21 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 413 | 1 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季全球产量增长 4.73%；巴西 5 月出 口 225 万吨，同比减少 20%；截至 5 月 15 日，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2574 万吨。中国 1-4 月常规进口，糖浆 和预拌粉进口大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,841 6 0.10% 162,011 26.86% 304,757 0.89% 5,926 5 0.08% 18,405 25.23% 27,126 -4.47% 5,762 7 0.12% 484 90.55% 2,407 -1.71% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6200 5960 - 6155 6255 6270 6510 0 -10 - 0 0 1 0 -10 438 198 - 393 493 508 748 SR07-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 164 -2 7 9 159 8 5 -1 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 17.31 0.04 3 3 4583 5862 338 408.00 6 4 泰国进口 17.31 0.8 1 8 4596 5880 320 390.00 4 6 现货价格 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 | - | | --- | | 糖 | | 1 国内 | | 小 库存 | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ------ SR2009 ==== SR2109 SR2109-SR2201 ---- SR2309-SR2401 -- SR2209-SR2301 600 1200 -- SR2309 SR2409 SR2509 SR2209 SR2409-SR2501 SR2509-SR2601 400 800 200 400 ...

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/6/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团日 | | 地区 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6190 | 0 | 0 | 442 | -16 | | 吨价现 | 云南 | 昆明 | 5910 | -40 | -100 | 262 | -56 | | い、賞 | | 大理 | 5855 | -15 | -140 | 247 | -31 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6270 | 0 | 100 | 422 | -16 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5748 | 16 | | | 9 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5624 | 7 | SR09-01 | 124 | | | दि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 2065 | -0. 0141 | ice原糖主 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 04 日 白糖：低位震荡 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 高频信息：美宣布对钢铝征收 50% 关税；巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季全球 产量增长 4.73%；巴西 4 月出口 155 万吨，同比减少 18%；截至 5 月 15 日，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2574 万吨。 中国 1-4 月常规进口，糖浆和预拌粉进口大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万 吨；CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业 协会数据显示，截至 4 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1111 万吨（+115 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 724 万 吨（+150 万吨），累计销糖率 65.2%。中国海关数据显示，截至 4 月底，24/25 榨季中国进口食糖 174 万吨 （-138 万吨）。 国际市场：ISO 预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the raw sugar price has broken through the support level and declined. The trend strength of sugar is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34 cents year - on - year. The mainstream spot price is 6120 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5795 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 121 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 36 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 325 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower than the same period last year. The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4.73%. Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, China's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons. Cumulative sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.05 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].