Core Viewpoint - Shell is preparing to restart preliminary work on the Dragon gas field in Venezuela to supply natural gas to Trinidad and Tobago, indicating increased confidence in the U.S. government's potential issuance of new licenses to exempt the project from sanctions [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Dragon gas field is located in the shallow waters between Venezuela and Trinidad, and its production will help alleviate Trinidad's LNG supply shortages [1] - The project is part of a dual strategy by the U.S. government towards Venezuela, balancing military pressure with diplomatic engagement to restart gas cooperation [1] - The U.S. government has previously revoked oil and gas project licenses in Venezuela to increase pressure on the Maduro regime, with the Dragon gas field being one of the projects affected [1] Group 2: Licensing and Regulatory Environment - In July, the U.S. government granted Chevron a limited license to restart heavy crude oil production and exports from Venezuela, with similar actions expected for Shell and other companies involved in gas projects [2] - The U.S. Treasury Department is still negotiating the final terms of Shell's license, which the company hopes will last up to 10 years for long-term investment [3] Group 3: Partnerships and Market Context - Shell's partner in the project is Trinidad's state-owned National Gas Company, while BP is also seeking to restore its license for the Manakin-Cocuina gas field straddling the maritime border of Venezuela and Trinidad [4] - Shell and BP are major shareholders in Trinidad's Atlantic LNG complex, which has seen declining gas production over the past decade, leading to supply shortages affecting LNG and petrochemical exports [5] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The U.S. government is willing to allow oil companies to restart operations in Venezuela as long as they pay taxes and fees in hard currency, with ongoing support for Trinidad to access Dragon gas field resources [9] - A 30-year production sharing contract for the Dragon gas field was signed at the end of 2023, with reserves exceeding 40 trillion cubic feet, although initial agreements were made in 2018 before sanctions halted progress [9]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/09/18 | 63.57 | 67.44 | 70.23 | - | 0.52 | -3.87 | 0.39 | 201.14 | 17.04 | 234.00 | 30.84 | | 2025/09/19 | 62.68 | 66.68 | 69.88 | - | 0.64 | -4.00 | 0.46 | 197.07 | 16.09 | 229.89 | 29.87 | | 2025/09/22 | 62.28 | 66.57 | 69.74 | - | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that oil prices closed higher this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases. Fundamentally, the global oil market is in a state of inventory build - up, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200,000 barrels per day in the fourth - quarter oil balance sheet, and an expected oversupply of 180,000 - 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The fundamentals are turning to the off - season, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The report expects the absolute price center in the fourth quarter to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential influence on Russian supply [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.32, BRENT by $0.62, and DUBAI by $0.35. Other related refined products and by - products also showed various price changes. For example, domestic gasoline prices decreased by $50, and domestic diesel prices decreased by $35 [3]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, he will impose major sanctions on Russia, aiming to end the Russia - Ukraine war and save lives. He also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia due to the stalled cease - fire negotiation efforts [3]. - The US proposed that the G7 impose extensive sanctions on Russian energy, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases and the creation of a legal way to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine's defense [3]. - The US Energy Secretary said the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months and replace it with US LNG [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.94%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.13%. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [4].

Core Points - Japan has lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel as part of additional sanctions measures [1] Group 1 - Japan's decision to adjust the price cap reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and efforts to limit Russia's oil revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - India's fluctuating oil import strategy from Russia raises questions about its motivations and the influence of U.S. pressure [1][3][10] Group 1: India's Oil Import Dynamics - In August 2025, India's total oil imports decreased by 4%, while imports from Russia increased by 5.6%, raising Russia's share of India's oil imports from 33% to 37% [3][6] - The Indian government appears to be using a strategy of reducing imports to negotiate better prices from Russia, despite U.S. threats of tariffs [4][6] - Indian refiners are primarily focused on acquiring oil at lower prices, and the recent reduction in imports was a tactic to leverage negotiations with Russia [4][6] Group 2: U.S. and Global Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized India for profiting from the resale of Russian oil, claiming it generated at least $16 billion for India's wealthiest families [3][6] - If India were to stop purchasing Russian oil, it could benefit China, which is already increasing its imports of Russian oil, potentially leading to a shift in market dynamics [7][9] - Middle Eastern oil producers may fill the gap left by India in the Russian oil market, leading to a significant market reshuffle [9][10] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Implications - The discounts on Russian oil have decreased from $30-$35 per barrel to around $10, making it less attractive for India to negotiate for further reductions [6][10] - China's increased purchases of Russian oil, particularly Ural and Varandey grades, indicate a strategic move to capitalize on lower prices due to sanctions [6][9] - The overall market for Russian oil remains robust due to its competitive pricing, suggesting that India’s potential withdrawal could backfire economically [10][11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **tanker shipping industry**, focusing on the current market dynamics and future expectations related to oil and gas transportation. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Freight rates on the Middle East to China route have significantly increased to **WS70 and above**, indicating optimistic market expectations for future rates [1][3] - There is a general sentiment among shipowners to hold back on leasing due to anticipated further increases in freight rates [3][4] - The **U.S. Gulf Coast** continues to see high levels of LNG and crude oil exports, which is consuming some of the Middle Eastern shipping capacity, exacerbating overall capacity tightness [1][3] - The **shadow fleet** is performing well, with routes such as from Venezuela to China experiencing a shortage of available ships [1][3] OPEC and Production Plans - OPEC is expected to discuss a potential increase in production, with a possibility of releasing **1.6 million barrels per day** to regain market share and suppress U.S. shale oil exports [1][5] - The market anticipates that OPEC's strategy to maintain production at lower oil prices could push prices below **$60**, which would significantly impact U.S. shale oil profitability [6][5] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russian oil, while India is expected to increase its imports of Russian crude by **10%-20%**, leading to increased long-haul shipping demand [1][3][6] - Despite sanctions, India is unlikely to significantly reduce Russian oil imports due to favorable pricing, which is crucial for the profitability of Indian refineries [6][7] Shipping Capacity and Fleet Dynamics - The aging fleet poses a risk, as older vessels (over 20 years) are unlikely to compete in a normalized market post-sanctions, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity and potentially higher freight rates [9][10] - Chinese shipyards are refusing to accept older sanctioned vessels for repairs, further limiting their return to the market [9] Future Market Expectations - The overall tanker market is expected to remain tight, with freight rates projected to maintain a range of **$40,000 to $50,000** per day by the end of the year [13][18] - If the shadow fleet continues to grow, the market could see a strong support level for freight rates [13] - The upcoming OPEC meeting and India's oil import policies are critical factors to monitor in the coming months [14] Stock Market Implications - Current valuations of tanker stocks are at a low point, but any marginal improvements in market conditions could lead to increased attention and investment in these stocks [19] Additional Important Insights - The **second-hand ship market** is currently a seller's market, with limited availability of older vessels, particularly VLCCs [16] - The actual price of sanctioned oil is typically about **$5 lower** than Brent crude prices, with freight rates for sanctioned oil varying significantly based on route and vessel type [17] - The impact of geopolitical tensions and sanctions on shipping operations remains a critical area of focus, with ongoing regulatory scrutiny affecting operational costs [8][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices dropping on Friday. The peak season for refinery operations in summer is coming to an end, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. Refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day News - The API crude oil inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 29 was 622,000 barrels, with an expected value of - 3.4 million barrels and a previous value of - 974,000 barrels [3]. - U.S. President Trump hinted at implementing the second and third phases of oil sanctions against Russia [4]. - Two sources said that OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday as the organization seeks to regain market share. Another increase in production would mean that OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. However, some analysts and OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ may also suspend the production increase, and the final decision has not been made [5]. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [5][6]. - The EIA gasoline inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, with an expected value of - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels; the EIA refined oil inventory was 2.343 million barrels, with an expected value of 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels [6]. - From August 22 to 29, the operating rate of major refineries increased slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price dropped on Friday. The inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged at the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly, the refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the U.S. gasoline crack spread strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated [7]. - The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing [7]. - Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7].

Core Viewpoint - India's oil imports from Russia are not for "profiteering" but rather to stabilize the market and prevent oil prices from soaring to $200 per barrel [2][2][2] Group 1: India's Position on Russian Oil Imports - Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India's purchases of Russian oil have helped stabilize the market amid global sanctions against Russia [2] - Puri refuted claims that India is acting as a "laundromat" for Russian oil, emphasizing that these accusations are far from the truth [2] - India has become the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, taking advantage of discounted prices following the sanctions imposed by European countries and the U.S. after the Ukraine conflict [2] Group 2: U.S. Response and Criticism - The U.S. has targeted India for its Russian oil purchases, with President Trump imposing tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. to curb these imports [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen accused India of profiting by buying Russian oil at lower prices and reselling refined products at higher prices [2] - White House trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed that India's actions are financially supporting Moscow [2] Group 3: Legality and Compliance of Transactions - Puri emphasized that every oil transaction by India is conducted through "legitimate shipping and insurance, compliant traders, and audited channels" [2] - He asserted that India has not violated any rules and that its actions have prevented a spiral increase in global oil prices [2] - Puri highlighted that the second-largest oil producer in the world supplies nearly 10% of global oil, which is irreplaceable [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's OFAC has imposed sanctions on Greek citizen Antonio Magaritis and his network of companies, as well as nearly a dozen vessels involved in Iran's shadow fleet, to disrupt Iran's oil exports and weaken its funding for advanced weapons programs [1] - The sanctions are part of ongoing efforts to target Iran's oil sales and are based on relevant executive orders [1] Group 2 - The following companies and vessels involved in transporting Iranian oil to China have been sanctioned: - Ozarka Shipping - FZCO, operating vessels VICTORY ARI and SONDOS, both transporting Iranian oil products to China [2] - Changbai Glory Shipping Ltd. from the Marshall Islands, with the vessel LAFIT, which has transported over 4 million barrels of Iranian oil to Chinese customers since March 2025 [2] - Regal Liberty Limited from the British Virgin Islands, with the vessel GIANT, which transported approximately 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to China in early 2025 [2] - U Beacon Shipping Co., Limited from Hong Kong, with the vessel ADELINE G, which recently transported over 1 million barrels of Iranian oil and has done so multiple times since July 2022 [2] - Hong Kong Hangshun Shipping Limited with the vessel KONGM, which has transported millions of barrels of Iranian oil to various locations in China since early 2025 [2] - Ares Shipping Limited from Hong Kong, with the vessel ARES, which has transported nearly 10 million barrels of Iranian oil [2]

Group 1 - The core issue is that oil is a critical pillar of Russia's export economy, especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine war [1] - Despite Western sanctions, Russia's oil export volume has only slightly decreased, indicating its efforts to circumvent these restrictions [3] - Since the escalation of the war, Russia has earned €926 billion from fossil fuel exports, but the $60 per barrel price cap set by Western countries has significantly suppressed its revenue [5] Group 2 - New buyers have replaced old customers as Russia's exports to the West have drastically declined [5] - Trump's intention to impose punitive tariffs on U.S. imports aims to deter new buyers, particularly affecting China and India [8]