Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The IEA projects that under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), oil demand will steadily increase, reaching 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with an average annual growth of approximately 500,000 barrels per day [2][3]. - In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a forecasted decline to 100 million barrels per day by 2035, averaging a decrease of about 200,000 barrels per day from 2035 to 2050 [2][7]. - The report highlights that the growth in oil demand will primarily occur in emerging markets and developing economies, with India leading the demand increase, projected to rise from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 8 million barrels per day by 2035 [4][7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of November 21, Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.56 per barrel, a decrease of 2.84% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell by 3.38% to $58.06 per barrel [16]. - The report notes a trend of widening supply-demand dynamics in crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support are likely to maintain prices at moderate to high levels [2][16]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $26.66 per barrel, up by $2.44 from the previous week [53]. - The domestic refining product price differentials have improved, suggesting a potential for enhanced profitability as economic recovery progresses [50][53]. Polyester Sector - The report observes a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations for improved market conditions, particularly for high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector [11]. - The PTA price has shown an upward trend, with the average price in East China reaching 4626.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.90% increase [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade companies like Wankai New Materials [11]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive advantages [11]. - For upstream exploration and development, companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering are highlighted as having strong growth prospects [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in the Indian market in nearly a year. European and American refinery profits rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Hungary will be exempt from US sanctions for purchasing Russian energy. US President Trump met with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban on November 7, and the US government agreed to provide a one - year exemption for Hungary [3]. - Ukraine said Russia launched a large - scale attack on its energy infrastructure on the night of November 7 [3]. - Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports from Ceyhan Port in December are planned to be 17 million barrels, higher than 15.3 million barrels in November [3]. - Brazil's national oil company's oil production in October reached 2.6 million barrels per day, and it added 115,000 barrels per day through capacity upgrades [3]. - US President Trump will auction oil and gas exploration rights in the entire Gulf of Mexico next month [3]. - US energy company EOG expects low or zero growth in its oil production in early 2026 [4]. - Russia's crude oil production in October slightly rebounded to 9.411 million barrels per day but was still 70,000 barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota [4]. - ADNOC and OPEC officials believe that oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040, and geopolitics, trade flows, and sentiment will make fluctuations the norm [4]. - Russia's oil and gas revenue in October decreased by over 26% year - on - year but increased by 52.6% from the previous month due to additional profit tax [4]. - Swiss commodity trader Gunvor withdrew its proposal to acquire overseas assets of Russian energy company Lukoil after US opposition [4]. - Maersk's CEO said it's too early to determine when it's safe to pass through the Red Sea [5]. - China's crude oil imports in October increased by 8.2% year - on - year due to higher refinery operating rates, reaching 48.36 million tons or 11.4 million barrels per day [5]. 2. Inventory - In the week of October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 million barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.7 million barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.344 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [6]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) in the week of October 31 were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6]. - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in the week of October 31 was 300,000 barrels, down from 1.334 million barrels in the previous week [6]. - US EIA gasoline inventory in the week of October 31 decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels [6]. - As of the week of November 5, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 1.236 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreasing by 79,000 barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.166 million barrels [6]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease [7]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices were volatile. OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased more than expected. Western sanctions led to high on - board oil storage, and Russian oil had a large discount in India. European and American refinery profits rebounded. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 in Q4 [7].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with the ISM manufacturing index declining by 0.4 to 48.7 [12] - The U.S. Treasury estimates borrowing of $569 billion in the fourth quarter, a decrease of $21 billion from the July forecast [12] - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [12] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve officials suggest a potential interest rate cut in December, contingent on forthcoming economic data [12] - The People's Bank of China has renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea [11] Group 3: Commodity Markets - WTI crude oil closed at $60.82 per barrel, up 0.26%, while Brent crude oil rose 0.27% to $64.65 per barrel [7] - Gold prices fluctuated around $4000 per ounce, closing down 0.07% at $4000.44 [7] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.17% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.97%, with significant trading volume of 228.68 billion HKD [5] - A-shares saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.55% [6]

Core Insights - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) projects that oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040 [1] - Sultan Al Jaber highlighted ongoing challenges faced by the industry, particularly due to geopolitical factors affecting trade flows and market dynamics [1] - The complexity of the market has become a norm, with market sentiment influencing volatility, which is now considered a constant rather than a variable [1] Industry Summary - ADNOC's forecast indicates a sustained high demand for oil, suggesting potential long-term investment opportunities in the oil sector [1] - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a significant factor impacting the oil market, which could lead to fluctuations in trade and pricing [1] - The acknowledgment of increased market complexity and volatility suggests that industry players may need to adapt their strategies to navigate these challenges effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - BP's CEO, Murray Auchincloss, stated that oil supply growth from non-OPEC countries is expected to peak by early 2026, while demand remains strong [1] Supply Insights - Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to stabilize around February or March of next year, with steady growth expected over the following 12 to 18 months [1] - Recent supply growth from non-OPEC countries has been driven by nations like Guyana and the United States, with BP anticipating increased oil and gas production from these regions [1] - Brazil is highlighted as a significant contributor to non-OPEC oil production and is noted for being the site of BP's largest oil discovery in nearly 25 years [1] Demand Insights - Demand for oil is currently described as "still strong," with expectations for growth in both this year and next [1] - Petrochemical products are anticipated to lead consumption trends in the coming year, with robust market demand for these products [1] Market Dynamics - Auchincloss pointed out that sanctions related to Russia and Iran, along with China's oil storage purchases, are key factors driving oil price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Onkyo stated that global oil demand is "very, very strong" indicating a robust market outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - The current global oil demand is experiencing significant strength, suggesting potential growth opportunities for companies within the oil sector [1] - The strong demand may lead to increased investments and strategic initiatives aimed at capitalizing on this trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

Core Viewpoint - India's crude oil imports in June fell to a five-month low, indicating a seasonal decline in domestic oil demand due to the monsoon season, despite an overall upward trend in oil demand year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Import Data - In June, India's crude oil imports decreased by 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, marking the lowest level since February of this year [1]. - The preliminary government data indicated that crude throughput at Indian refineries also declined by 4.2% month-on-month to 5.41 million barrels per day [1]. Group 2: Refinery Operations - The operating rate of Indian refineries in June was lower than in May, attributed to the seasonal drop in domestic oil demand during the monsoon [1]. - This trend of reduced refinery operations is expected to continue into July [1]. Group 3: Year-on-Year Comparison - Despite the month-on-month decline, year-on-year crude oil imports are expected to rise due to the ongoing increase in India's oil demand [1].