美联储理事巴尔：贸易政策增加了不确定性，导致经济前景变得黯淡，影响了消费者和企业的信心。 ...

瑞典央行：经济前景似乎比三月份的预测略微疲软一些。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济前景发生变化，我们将需要调整我们的货币政策。此次展望可能不如 以往准确。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：经济前景不如以往那样确定。 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, primarily due to increasing concerns over tariffs impacting the economic outlook [1] - The index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [1] - This decline in consumer confidence has been observed for five consecutive months, indicating a persistent downward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Indicators - The anticipated GDP data for the U.S. is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, attributed to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs [1] - There is a potential for a substantial decrease in consumer spending, driven by high inflation and concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs, leading some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that the economic outlook presents multiple divergent paths, suggesting uncertainty in future economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring various economic indicators to assess the potential trajectories of the economy [1] - Harker emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making in navigating the current economic landscape [1] - The potential for different economic scenarios highlights the complexity of monetary policy formulation [1]

美联储副主席杰斐逊在关于经济流动性的讲话中未提及当前的货币政策或经济前景。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price continues to show bullish momentum, currently at $3451.14 per ounce, with a 0.78% increase [1] - Gold is approaching a key resistance level of $3500 per ounce, indicating potential for a pullback [1] - The price is currently operating outside the Bollinger Bands, suggesting volatility in the market [1] Group 2 - Trump's recent comments on the Federal Reserve and interest rates have raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy and potential economic slowdown [2] - A weaker dollar typically increases gold's attractiveness to buyers using other currencies [2] - Analysts express concerns over the implications of Trump's pressure on the Fed, including a potential confrontation between the White House and the central bank [2] Group 3 - Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia indicates that gold's upward trend may test the $3500 per ounce mark within the next three months [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that gold may be overbought, indicating a possible price correction [3] - If gold prices fall below $3400 per ounce, the first support level would be the April 17 high of $3357 per ounce, followed by $3300 per ounce [3]

智通财经4月10日电，第12届东盟财长和央行行长会议发表联合声明，强调东盟国家将共同致力于打造 一个韧性、包容和可持续的本地区经济未来。声明指出，在通胀放缓的背景下，强劲的国内需求、稳定 的投资活动、强劲的出口表现以及良好的就业条件继续支撑着东盟的经济表现。预计该地区将在持续的 外部逆风中保持韧性。声明说，征收关税和潜在报复措施带来的不确定性，可能会加剧资本流动和汇率 的波动。东盟正密切关注这一情况，并随时准备在必要时应对这种波动。 东盟国家召开财长和央行行长会议 讨论经济前景等问题 ...