格隆汇1月6日｜由于投资者对地缘政治风险的关注有所降温，美债收益率在欧洲时段震荡走高。即便如 此，周一公布的美国ISM制造业PMI数据低于预期，再次提醒人们经济前景依然脆弱，且劳动力市场也 出现了降温信号。Naga的Frank Walbaum在报告中指出："疲软数据的延续可能会强化市场对美联储在 2026年采取更偏鸽派职能的预期，目前市场定价已消化了年底前两次降息的预期。"本周，周五的非农 就业数据尤其受到关注。根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美债收益率上涨2.2个基点，至4.184%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

格隆汇1月4日｜根据费城联储主席安娜·保尔森的说法，目前联储官员们正在评估去年大规模宽松政策 实施后的经济表现，而进一步降息可能还需一段时间的"沉淀"。当地时间周六（3日），保尔森在为美 国经济学会年会事先准备好的演讲稿中表示："我认为通胀将会缓和，劳动力市场将会企稳，今年的经 济增长率将在2%左右。如果所有这些目标都能实现，那么今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行一些小幅 调整可能是合适的。"整体而言，她认为，2026年晚些时候可能会适度进一步降息，但她认为这一结果 取决于经济前景的良好态势。保尔森今年在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的议息会议上将拥有投票 权。。 ...

新华财经北京12月30日电（王姝睿）由于美国关税降低及全球形势略有改善，瑞士经济前景略有好转。 数据显示，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标延续了前几个月的上行走势，上升1.7点至103.4，达到自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，并超出市场预期的101.4，显示瑞士经济在2026年初的前景高于平均水平。 另外，食品饮料生产商以及化工和制药行业的子指标表现疲软，使整体乐观前景略显受限。 瑞士政府此前下修2026年经济增长预测，美国高关税成主因。瑞士经济2025年料将增长1.3%，2026年 料将增长0.9%。近期整体贸易不确定性有所缓解，同时，海外扩张性财政政策利好瑞士经济，并有助 于出口，使瑞士经济前景温和向好。分析称，瑞士经济的主要风险在于全球经济的发展。 考虑到经济前景以及持续的低通胀，瑞士央行维持政策利率在0%不变，这是主要央行中最低的利率。 此前的高关税已损害经济增长，而贸易动荡期间避险资金流入推高瑞郎汇率，使进口商品更便宜，进一 步压低了通胀。 （文章来源：新华财经） 积极趋势在生产侧尤为明显，瑞士制造业相关指标组合显示出向好前景。相比之下，私人消费和国外需 求相关的指标组合则仍面临压力。 在生 ...

【新华社微特稿】印度新闻信息局29日发布的年终经济评估报告显示，印度国内生产总值（GDP）当前 已超过日本，成为世界第四大经济体，有望三年内赶超德国。 今年8月，美国因印度持续购买俄罗斯原油对其加征巨额关税，引发外界对印度经济担忧，但印度政府 对本国经济前景仍保持乐观态度。报告说，印度经济的持续增长，体现了其"在全球贸易持续不确定性 下的韧劲"。 这篇题为《2025年，印度经济增长的关键之年》的报告写道，印度是全球增长最快的主要经济体之一， 并具备保持这一势头的良好条件。"印度GDP达4.18万亿美元，超过日本成为世界第四大经济体，且有 望在今后两年半到三年内取代德国，跻身世界前三。到2030年，印度GDP预计将增至7.3万亿美元。" 按法新社说法，这一报告仅为初步估计，官方最终要以2026年发布的年度GDP核算数据为准。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）此前预测，到2026年，印度GDP将达4.51万亿美元，日本GDP同期预计为 4.46万亿美元，届时印度将超过日本。 不过，从其他一些衡量指标来看，印度经济前景可能"没那么乐观"。世界银行数据显示，2024年印度人 均GDP仅为2694美元，为同期日本人均GDP（ ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 在联合国举办的新闻发布会上，联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克（Stéphane Dujarric）在回答21世纪经济 报道记者提问时表示："我们目前重点推动的是加强国际合作，更多利用现有的国际贸易协定。主要经 济体在维护全球经济健康方面必须承担领导责任。" （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 联合国贸易和发展会议近日发布《2025 年贸易与发展报告》，指出金融市场的波动正在成为决定全球 贸易走向和经济前景的关键力量，使世界经济处于愈发脆弱的状态。报告预计，2025 年全球经济增速 将放缓至 2.6%，较 2024 年的 2.9% 小幅回落。 ...

钛媒体App 12月2日消息，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，不对经济前景或利率发表评论。（广角观察） ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The 12 - month contract was weak due to the under - expected price increase implementation, while the far - month price increase expectation has fermented in advance, which may lead to over - valuation of the 04 contract. It is advisable to focus on the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On Friday after the market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified that the last trading day of the February contract is February 9, and the expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush further fermented in the February contract. The December contract was weak as the price increase implementation was less than expected. The SCFIS index fell 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67 this week. Shipping companies' online quotes changed little. Airlines have not formed a unified price - holding force, and the price increase implementation in December was less than expected, but there is still a far - month price increase expectation [8]. 2. Industry News - From November 10 to November 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, and the freight rates of ocean routes continued to show a differentiated trend, with the composite index slightly declining. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. On November 14, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index was 25, up from the previous value. The freight rate of the European route increased by 7.1%, the Mediterranean route was stable, and the North American route continued to adjust. There were also statements from Israeli and Turkish officials regarding the Palestinian - Israeli issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On November 17, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1357.67, down 9.8% from November 10; the SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1238.42, down 6.9% from November 10 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided trading data for multiple contracts of container shipping European line futures on November 18, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included multiple charts such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan did not provide any comments on the economic outlook or monetary policy during the bank funding conference [1] Group 1 - Logan's speech at the bank funding conference lacked insights on the economic outlook [1] - No commentary was made regarding monetary policy during the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - The opening remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Logan at the banking funds conference did not address the economic outlook or monetary policy [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Logan's speech focused on the banking sector without discussing broader economic conditions [1] - The absence of commentary on monetary policy suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding future economic guidance [1]