美联储主席鲍威尔在准备好的欢迎致辞中未就经济前景或货币政策发表评论。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事巴尔未对货币政策或经济前景发表评论。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆未对货币政策或经济前景发表评论。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government aims to restore confidence in the economy following Fitch's downgrade of Thailand's economic outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to increasing risks to public finances amid ongoing political instability [1] Group 1: Government Response - Prime Minister Anutin stated that the negative outlook adjustment is attributed to various past factors and emphasized the need to enhance confidence to potentially reverse the downgrade [1] - The government plans to implement prudent economic policies to prevent further deterioration of the national debt burden [1] - All necessary measures will be taken to avoid another downgrade of the country's credit rating [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Fitch downgraded Thailand's rating due to increasing risks to public finances in the context of persistent political instability [1] - Finance Minister Ekniti highlighted the importance of paying attention to the assessments provided by rating agencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]

Market Movements - As of September 3, 2023, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.62% [1] - European indices also saw positive movements, with Germany's DAX up 0.64%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52%, France's CAC 40 up 0.90%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.82% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.91% to $64.34 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.69% to $67.97 per barrel [3][4] Market News - Federated Hermes expressed optimism about U.S. equities, citing strong corporate earnings and economic outlook as support for the market, suggesting that any pullback presents a buying opportunity [5] - Deutsche Bank's CEO indicated that the global bond sell-off is not just a temporary fluctuation, predicting that yields will remain high due to ongoing government reforms and fiscal discipline [5] Volatility and Gold Market - The VIX index surged over 11%, indicating increased market volatility as traders prepare for significant fluctuations following the Labor Day holiday [6] - UBS analysts forecast a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that prices could reach $4,000 per ounce under certain geopolitical and economic conditions [6] Company-Specific News - Google (GOOGL.US) received a favorable ruling in its online search monopoly case, allowing it to retain its Chrome browser and Android system without divestiture, while also being required to share some search index data with competitors [7] - Apple (AAPL.US) is expected to launch foldable iPhones and iPads starting in 2026, with projected shipments significantly increased for 2026 and 2027 [8][9] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) denied rumors of a shortage of its H100 and H200 AI chips, asserting that supply is sufficient to meet demand [9] - Macy's (M.US) reported Q2 sales exceeding expectations and raised its full-year guidance, leading to a significant pre-market stock increase [9] - Kraft Heinz (KHC.US) faced backlash from major shareholder Warren Buffett over its business split plan, which has also drawn scrutiny from Moody's regarding its investment-grade rating [10] - Air Lease (AL.US) agreed to be acquired for $7.4 billion, indicating a trend of consolidation in the aircraft leasing industry [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 2.8% month-over-month decline in durable goods orders for July, slightly better than expected. However, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 1.1%, indicating a potential recovery in business capital spending and confidence in the economic outlook [1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell from a revised 98.7 in July to 97.4 in August, reflecting growing concerns about employment and income among Americans, which counteracts optimism regarding the current and future business environment [1] Group 2 - The international gold price rose on the day, attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amid concerns over the unprecedented "removal" of a Federal Reserve board member by the U.S. President, which raised questions about the Fed's independence [4] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.30%, the S&P 500 by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq by 0.44%, as investor focus shifted from the Fed controversy to corporate earnings and fundamentals [7] Group 3 - The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1% in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing price growth, indicating that high home prices and mortgage rates are suppressing housing demand [9] - European stock indices collectively declined, with the French stock market performing the worst due to political uncertainty following a call for a confidence vote by the French Prime Minister [12] Group 4 - International oil prices fell after reaching a new high for August, as investors took profits amid potential overbuying due to geopolitical factors in Eastern Europe. Light crude oil futures settled at $63.25 per barrel, down 2.39%, while Brent crude futures closed at $67.22 per barrel, down 2.30% [14]

Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a V-shaped reversal after breaking lower, with a current trading range of $3300 to $3400, indicating ongoing volatility and competition between bulls and bears [1][3] - The recent price action shows a rebound to $3360, with resistance at $3400, while support is seen at $3300, suggesting a potential for further adjustments [3][4] - The market is reacting to mixed signals from the U.S. economy, including stable CPI results and ongoing hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, which maintains restrictive policies [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. debt crisis is resurfacing, with rising bond yields and political tensions surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could impact the dollar and benefit gold prices [4] - Upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials are expected to focus on monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [5] - The performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, is linked to the rising debt levels, indicating a correlation between debt expansion and stock market behavior [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights uncertainty in trade policies and their progress, which continues to significantly impact the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan acknowledges that trade policy uncertainties are prevalent [1] - The impact of these uncertainties on the economy and price outlook remains high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights that uncertainties arising from trade policies and their developments continue to have a significant impact on the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the high level of uncertainty related to trade policies [1]