Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2512 | 1,802.5 | 1,787.9 | 1,769. ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan did not provide any comments on the economic outlook or monetary policy during the bank funding conference [1] Group 1 - Logan's speech at the bank funding conference lacked insights on the economic outlook [1] - No commentary was made regarding monetary policy during the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - The opening remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Logan at the banking funds conference did not address the economic outlook or monetary policy [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Logan's speech focused on the banking sector without discussing broader economic conditions [1] - The absence of commentary on monetary policy suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding future economic guidance [1]

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs Group reported a 42% year-over-year increase in investment banking revenues, which is a significant indicator for retail investors as the financial sector begins to release quarterly earnings [1][2] - The bank's wealth management fees rose by 17% to over $2.9 billion, driven by higher asset prices, reflecting strong business confidence among affluent investors [4][5] - Goldman Sachs' earnings per share (EPS) grew by 30.3%, reaching $37.75, surpassing last year's $28.98, although the stock price declined by approximately 4.3% post-results [11][12] Investment Banking and Wealth Management - Investment banking revenues increased significantly, with debt and equity underwriting fees rising to nearly $2.7 billion, a 42% increase from the previous year, indicating CFOs' confidence in future economic prospects [10] - Wealth management's growth is attributed to a stable number of affluent clients, suggesting a continued risk appetite for holding stocks despite market valuations being perceived as high [5][6] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs serves as a barometer for economic sentiment, influencing investor behavior across the S&P 500, with its performance reflecting corporate strength [2][3] - The bank's lower credit-loss provision of $339 million compared to $397 million last year indicates healthy credit and liquidity conditions, although it suggests some struggles for the average consumer [8][9] Stock Performance and Future Outlook - The current stock price forecast for Goldman Sachs is $769.40, with a potential downside of 1.45%, based on 19 analyst ratings [8] - The bank has increased its stock buyback program by $2 billion and raised its dividend payout to $4 per share, up from $3, indicating strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not comment on the economic outlook or monetary policy in his prepared welcoming remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - No comments were made regarding the economic outlook by the Federal Reserve Chairman [1] - Monetary Policy - The prepared remarks did not address any aspects of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Barr did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The absence of comments from Barr may indicate a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The absence of comments from Musalem indicates a potential wait-and-see approach regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government aims to restore confidence in the economy following Fitch's downgrade of Thailand's economic outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to increasing risks to public finances amid ongoing political instability [1] Group 1: Government Response - Prime Minister Anutin stated that the negative outlook adjustment is attributed to various past factors and emphasized the need to enhance confidence to potentially reverse the downgrade [1] - The government plans to implement prudent economic policies to prevent further deterioration of the national debt burden [1] - All necessary measures will be taken to avoid another downgrade of the country's credit rating [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Fitch downgraded Thailand's rating due to increasing risks to public finances in the context of persistent political instability [1] - Finance Minister Ekniti highlighted the importance of paying attention to the assessments provided by rating agencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]