1、美联储对利率前景的讨论情况。2、美联储对资产负债表的讨论情况。3、美联储官员们对经济形势 的看法，包括关税通胀、就业市场、创历史最长纪录的政府关门事件等。4、美联储对金融市场的看 法，包括储备金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced widespread sell-offs, with significant declines in U.S. stock futures and cryptocurrencies, driven by concerns over interest rate outlook and technology stock valuations [1]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, amid worries over government spending and geopolitical factors [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by 3.32%, led by declines in semiconductor stocks [2]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down 1.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%. The Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 2.5% [3]. - U.S. stock futures showed significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1%, Dow futures down 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.7% [4]. Interest Rate and Commodity Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 42.9%, leading to a decrease in optimistic sentiment towards gold, which fell below the $4,000 mark [1][5]. - Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure, dropping to a low of $89,253 per coin, with traders betting on further declines to $85,000 and even $80,000 [5][13].

全球市场周二遭遇广泛抛售，美股期货延续跌势，加密货币继续承压，投资者在英伟达财报和美国就业数据等关键事件前大幅撤离风险资 产，因持续担忧利率前景和科技股估值。在亚太市场中，日本遭遇股债汇"三杀"，市场对政府支出忧虑加剧，且科技股抛售和地缘政治因 素也拖累日本市场走势。 核心市场走势： 纳斯达克100指数期货跌幅扩大至1%，道指期货跌0.5%，标普500指数期货跌0.7%； 日经225指数一度跌超3%，日本东证TOPIX指数跌2.4% 同时，日元、日债亦下跌：日元兑美元跌至155.37，创下1月以来新低；兑欧元汇率跌破180，为1999年欧元诞生以来的最弱水平。日本10 年期、20年期和30年期国债收益率纷纷上涨，其中10年期国债收益率升至1.754%，是2008年6月以来的最高水平。 | 日本10年期国债收益率 | 1.745 | +0.012 | +0.69% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JP10YR | 13:21:13 | | | | 日本20年期国债收益率 | 2.779 | +0.037 | +1.35% | | JP20YR | 13:21:10 | | | | 日 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.34% and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.45% during the week [3] - European stock indices saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.16%, Germany's DAX 30 up by 1.30%, and France's CAC 40 up by 2.77% [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, investors are closely monitoring the release of economic data, including the September employment report, which is expected to be the first data released post-shutdown [6] - The market remains cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, with probabilities for a rate cut in December being nearly equal to maintaining the current rate [6][10] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on November 19 is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy [6] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with significant attention on Nvidia's performance and retail giants like Walmart and Target, which will indicate consumer demand in the U.S. [7] - Several Chinese concept stocks, including Baidu, NetEase, and Pinduoduo, are set to release their third-quarter operational results [7] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.57% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, influenced by supply disruptions from Russia [9] - The International Energy Agency noted that the increase in oil prices is partly due to rising inventories of sanctioned crude oil, indicating buyers' concerns over compliance risks [9] European Economic Outlook - The European Commission's autumn economic outlook report is scheduled for release on November 17, with market focus on the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone [12][13] - Upcoming data releases include Germany's October Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Eurozone's November Consumer Confidence Index [12][14]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,174.90 per ounce on Friday, down 0.3% from Thursday’s close of $4,186.90. The price of gold was down in early trading. Gold demand from central banks and investors seeking safety continues, even as the short-term interest-rate outlook remains uncertain. The pause in government data is a factor. Some reports that were missed during the shutdown may never be published, leaving analysts in the dark about the Fed’s next move. On Thursday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Preside ...

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada closed down by 0.90%, at 30,144.78 points, after a slight opening increase before declining [1] - The Canadian 10-year benchmark government bond yield rose by 11.5 basis points to 3.158%, showing a continuous and smooth increase throughout the day [1] - The two-year Canadian bond yield increased by 8.5 basis points to 2.440%, significantly rising after the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision [1] - The five-year Canadian bond yield rose by 11.7 basis points to 2.742%, reflecting market reactions to interest rate discussions [1]

Group 1 - Gold futures opened at $3,942.80 per ounce, down 1% from the previous close of $3,983.70, marking the third consecutive day below $4,000 after a two-week period above this threshold [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point interest rate reduction has influenced gold prices, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating a divided committee on future rate decisions, creating uncertainty about further reductions [2][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to pause retaliatory trade measures for one year, which includes reduced tariffs from the U.S. and a pause on rare-earth export restrictions from China, potentially impacting gold demand as investors adjust to the new interest-rate outlook and trade truce [3] Group 2 - The price of gold futures has increased by 50% compared to one year ago, with a recent weekly change of -3.3%, a monthly change of +3%, and a yearly change of +42.1% [4][9] - The gold industry is seeing interest in gold IRAs, which allow for the holding of physical gold and other precious metals, providing potential tax benefits and diversification for retirement wealth [5][6]

Group 1: Eurozone and US Economic Outlook - Monex Europe analysts indicate that the weak growth and fiscal concerns in the Eurozone will limit the euro's appreciation potential, suggesting that the euro may only see slight increases if market risk appetite remains strong and interest rate differentials favor the euro [1] - Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes warns that the US economy faces risks of a mild recession, which could lead to significant rate cuts and a weaker dollar, drawing parallels to the 2001-2003 period when the Fed drastically reduced rates from 6.5% to 1.0% [2] - Kudotrade analysts highlight that the upcoming US inflation data will be crucial for assessing future interest rate prospects, with expectations that if the data meets or falls below forecasts, it could reinforce market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026 [1][2] Group 2: Credit Market and Bond Ratings - Concerns over the stability of US regional banks persist, keeping the cost of credit default swaps for US bank bonds at elevated levels, as two banks recently disclosed exposure to bad loans [2] - Danske Bank notes that S&P's downgrade of France's credit rating may increase pressure on French government bonds, with expectations that Moody's will also revise France's outlook from stable to negative [2] Group 3: Gold and Swiss Monetary Policy - ANZ analysts report that investors are increasingly seeking refuge in gold amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold experiencing its largest weekly gain in five years due to the collapse of the US credit market [3] - Capital Economics economists predict that the Swiss National Bank may reintroduce negative interest rates due to near-zero inflation levels and ongoing geopolitical risks, potentially lowering the key rate from 0% to -0.25% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong retail sales and industrial production data in the U.S. for August, gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs [1][3]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% [6]. - Industrial production in August showed a slight increase, with factory output rising by 0.1%, indicating moderate growth in manufacturing activities [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with market participants awaiting policy decisions and economic forecasts [2][4]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with minimal expectations for a 50 basis point cut [8]. - Deutsche Bank and other banks anticipate three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations provides geopolitical support for gold prices [5]. Market Movements - The gold price reached a record high of $3,703 before retreating slightly, currently trading around $3,690 [3][12]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.74% to 96.62, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is hovering around $3,690, with bullish sentiment aiming for a challenge of the historical high, potentially extending to $3,750 and $3,800 [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside [13].