炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 截至周一美盘，现货黄金日内重挫超100美元，现货白银日内重挫7.00%。地缘政治风险降低抑制了避 险资金流入，投资者获利了结。 ActivTrades分析师Ricardo Evangelista表示："黄金价格下跌，紧随创纪录高点后，主要归因于交易者在 年底前获利了结。美国政府对乌克兰和平谈判进展的初步乐观态度也带来了轻微的阻力。" 市场正关注将于周三凌晨公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以获取利率前景的线索。交易员预计明年将有两 次降息。非收益资产在利率低时表现较好。 瑞银分析师在一份报告中表示："黄金价格正处于高溢价状态，如果美联储的鹰派转向意外出现，且大 量ETF外流影响市场，可能会出现下行风险。" 白银面临短期障碍 对冲基金巨头桥水（Bridgewater）的前大宗商品负责人亚历山大·坎贝尔（Alexander Campbell）表示， 白银正面临数个短期障碍，投资者不妨先行观望，待其消除后再入场。 坎贝尔现任Black Snow Capital的首席执行官兼创始人，他是这样审视当前白银交易行情的——仅在12月 份，白 ...

银价在周一触及每盎司80美元上方的纪录高位后回落，金价则从接近历史高位回落，因投资者获利了 结，且市场对地缘政治风险降低的看法抑制了避险买盘。ActivTrades分析师Ricardo Evangelista表 示，"今日早盘金价继触及纪录高位后下跌，主要归因于交易商在年底前了结获利。美国政府对乌克兰 和平谈判取得进展的初步乐观态度也代表了一股温和的逆风。"市场目前正在关注定于周二公布的美联 储12月会议纪要，以寻找有关利率前景的线索。瑞银分析师在一份报告中称，"金价溢价较高，若美联 储突然转向鹰派立场和/或大型ETF出现大规模资金流出影响市场，则可能引发下行风险。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

12月19日，贵金属市场在通胀数据公布后明显回暖，金价迅速抹去隔夜跌幅并升至近两个月高位，市场 情绪出现明显转向。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，通胀降温为市场提供了重新定价的基础，在利率前景 不再单边收紧的背景下，黄金重新展现出其作为价值储存工具和风险对冲资产的吸引力。当天二月黄金 期货上涨28.20美元至4400.00美元附近，价格稳居重要心理关口之上，反映出资金对宏观环境变化的敏 感反应。 白银价格虽出现回落，但跌幅较早盘明显收敛，更多体现为短线资金在前期快速上涨后的获利调整。 RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，白银此前在周三创下历史高位后，部分短期交易者选择锁定收益属于正常 市场行为，并未破坏整体偏强结构。三月白银期货回落至66.25美元附近，但仍维持在高位区间运行， 显示中期趋势尚未发生实质性改变。 从通胀数据本身来看，整体表现明显低于市场预期。十二月整体通胀同比上升2.7，为数月以来最低水 平，也低于此前2.9至3.1区间的市场判断。剔除食品与能源后的核心通胀同比仅为2.6，回落幅度超出市 场预期。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，这组数据强化了通胀压力持续缓解的判断，使市场重新评估 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 14861, with an opening price of 14482 and a current price of 14912, reflecting a 3.04% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 15010, while the lowest was 14464, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The analysis suggests that the silver TD market is maintaining a high-level oscillation, with a focus on support levels between 14000-14400 and resistance levels between 15000-15500 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives voted 237 to 140 to table the impeachment motion against President Donald Trump, with all Republican members supporting the motion [2] - The White House indicated that the Trump administration will continue dialogue regarding Ukraine, with potential participation in peace talks if they are productive [2] - Analysts from First Abu Dhabi Bank noted that the U.S. interest rate outlook is at a critical turning point, with expectations that any additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will not exceed 50 basis points [2]

Oil Market - Oil prices fell to the lowest point since October, with WTI crude dropping approximately 1.5% to below $58 per barrel and Brent crude around $61 per barrel, influenced by a decline in U.S. stock markets and disappointing corporate earnings [2][7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the next two years, now predicting a surplus of 3.815 million barrels per day by 2026, a decrease of 231,000 barrels per day from the previous month [2][8] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased as traders assessed the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, with gold rising by 1.2% during U.S. trading hours, while silver surpassed $64 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $64.16 [4][11] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut, despite dissent from three officials, has led traders to anticipate further easing, with expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2026 [4][11] Base Metals - Copper prices reached a new record high, climbing 3% to $11,906 per ton, following the Federal Reserve's rate cut and an upward revision of U.S. economic growth forecasts [5][12] - The London Metal Exchange reported a 2.7% increase in copper prices, closing at $11,872 per ton, with other metals also experiencing gains, including a 4.4% rise in tin prices to $41,751 per ton, the highest since April 2022 [6][12]

周一（12月8日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率涨5.2个基点，报4.528%，北京时间22:39出现一波 陡峭的拉涨行情，23:45刷新日高至2.546%，使得最近两个交易日累计反弹9.3个基点。两年期英债收益 率涨3.1个基点，报3.811%。30年期英债收益率涨3.4个基点，报5.228%；50年期英债收益率涨2.7个基 点，报4.703%，北京时间22:05回落至4.676%刷新日低——20:00-00:00形成一波V形走势。2/10年期英债 收益率利差涨2.013个基点，报+71.434个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is discussing the outlook for interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is reviewing its balance sheet [1] - Federal Reserve officials have varying views on the economic situation, including tariff inflation, the job market, and the record-long government shutdown [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's perspective on financial markets includes considerations regarding reserves [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced widespread sell-offs, with significant declines in U.S. stock futures and cryptocurrencies, driven by concerns over interest rate outlook and technology stock valuations [1]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, amid worries over government spending and geopolitical factors [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by 3.32%, led by declines in semiconductor stocks [2]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down 1.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%. The Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 2.5% [3]. - U.S. stock futures showed significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1%, Dow futures down 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.7% [4]. Interest Rate and Commodity Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 42.9%, leading to a decrease in optimistic sentiment towards gold, which fell below the $4,000 mark [1][5]. - Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure, dropping to a low of $89,253 per coin, with traders betting on further declines to $85,000 and even $80,000 [5][13].

Core Market Trends - The Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1%, Dow futures decreased by 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a decline of over 3%, while the TOPIX index fell by 2.4% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index decreased by 2% to 221.28 points, marking its first drop below the 50-day moving average since April [2] - Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, and Ethereum dropped below $3,000 [2] Japanese Market Dynamics - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 48,908.25, down 1,415.66 points or 2.81%, while the TOPIX index was at 3,267.32, down 80.21 points or 2.40% [3] - The Japanese yen fell to 155.37 against the US dollar, the lowest since January, and the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.754%, the highest since June 2008 [3][4] - Concerns over government spending and geopolitical factors have led to a sell-off in Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets [4] Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Nvidia earnings report and the September employment report for insights into the tech sector's valuation and Federal Reserve policy direction [5] - Analysts indicate that the current sell-off reflects ongoing concerns about interest rate prospects and tech stock valuations [5] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month is currently priced at about 40% [6] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - Analysts warn that technical indicators suggest a potential 10% correction risk for US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 3.2% since its record high on October 28 [7] - The Nasdaq Composite index is showing weak internal signals, with more stocks hitting 52-week lows than those reaching new highs [8] - Bitcoin's decline has erased all gains for 2025, significantly impacting the sentiment in the digital asset market [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.34% and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.45% during the week [3] - European stock indices saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.16%, Germany's DAX 30 up by 1.30%, and France's CAC 40 up by 2.77% [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, investors are closely monitoring the release of economic data, including the September employment report, which is expected to be the first data released post-shutdown [6] - The market remains cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, with probabilities for a rate cut in December being nearly equal to maintaining the current rate [6][10] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on November 19 is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy [6] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with significant attention on Nvidia's performance and retail giants like Walmart and Target, which will indicate consumer demand in the U.S. [7] - Several Chinese concept stocks, including Baidu, NetEase, and Pinduoduo, are set to release their third-quarter operational results [7] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.57% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, influenced by supply disruptions from Russia [9] - The International Energy Agency noted that the increase in oil prices is partly due to rising inventories of sanctioned crude oil, indicating buyers' concerns over compliance risks [9] European Economic Outlook - The European Commission's autumn economic outlook report is scheduled for release on November 17, with market focus on the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone [12][13] - Upcoming data releases include Germany's October Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Eurozone's November Consumer Confidence Index [12][14]