| 1. 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 2. 避险属性演变逻辑 . | | 3. 货币属性演变逻辑 . | | 4. 商品属性演变逻辑 . | | 5. 技术分析 . | | 6.从多空博弈的角度看未来行情发展的方向 23 | | 7. 国内贵金属产业链概况 | | 8. 全球贵金属产业链概况 | | き表声明 . | 1.行情回顾 图 1：沪金主连本轮牛市关键节点 2025 年以来，贵金属继续上攻但金银出现分化。黄金多次连创历史新高，伦敦金最高涨至 3057.14 美元/盎司，Comex 金主力最高涨至 3065.2 美元/盎司，国内沪金主力最高涨至 711.24 元/克。白银在 黄金新高后，跟涨缓慢，多次承压回落。伦敦银最高涨至 34.224 美元/盎司，距离 2024 年 10 月创出 的 34.863 美元/盎司仍有空间，距离 2011 年 4 月的历史最高 49.840 美元/盎司仍然云泥之别，国内 沪银主力最高涨至 8444 元/千克，距离 2024 年 5 月的 8733 元/千克仍有距离。 开年以来贵金属主要逻辑在于：一是避险情绪升温。全球经济政治体系重构推动货币体系重构。 春节期间， ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong retail sales and industrial production data in the U.S. for August, gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs [1][3]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% [6]. - Industrial production in August showed a slight increase, with factory output rising by 0.1%, indicating moderate growth in manufacturing activities [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with market participants awaiting policy decisions and economic forecasts [2][4]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with minimal expectations for a 50 basis point cut [8]. - Deutsche Bank and other banks anticipate three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations provides geopolitical support for gold prices [5]. Market Movements - The gold price reached a record high of $3,703 before retreating slightly, currently trading around $3,690 [3][12]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.74% to 96.62, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is hovering around $3,690, with bullish sentiment aiming for a challenge of the historical high, potentially extending to $3,750 and $3,800 [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside [13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a correction, primarily driven by concerns over AI bubbles, regulatory policies, and interest rate outlooks, leading to a shift in investor behavior towards undervalued and defensive assets [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On August 20, major U.S. stock indices continued their downward trend, with the Nasdaq falling by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 also declined, and the Dow Jones showed relative resilience [1] - Investors are moving towards undervalued sectors and defensive assets, indicating a rapid decline in market risk appetite, which has also contributed to a 1% increase in gold prices on COMEX [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, released on August 20, revealed that most members are more concerned about inflation risks than employment risks, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range [2] - The market interpreted the minutes as hawkish, leading to a significant reduction in expectations for a large rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut remaining high at 81.9% according to CME's FedWatch tool [2] Group 3: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump publicly called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud, which is seen as a serious political intervention that could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy [3] - This political noise has increased investor uncertainty regarding policy direction, prompting a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like gold, while also creating a dual sentiment in the futures market regarding potential policy easing and political uncertainty [3] Group 4: Implications for Gold and Tech Stocks - The current environment suggests that while rate cuts are typically seen as beneficial for stocks, if perceived as a response to increased recession risks, it could negatively impact future earnings and thus be detrimental to tech stocks [4] - Gold prices are currently supported by uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with potential for a pullback if these uncertainties ease [4][5] - For investors, gold serves as a necessary but costly insurance, and while some defensive positioning is reasonable, expectations for excessive returns should be tempered, especially in a market driven by domestic policies and liquidity [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop of 1.6% following President Trump's announcement that there will be no tariffs on imported gold [1] - The international gold price saw a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months, as investors await upcoming inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [1] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened due to the potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased market caution [1] Group 2 - After a significant bearish movement, indicators for gold have entered an oversold state, suggesting that a strong rebound is possible without further major declines [2] - The market is exhibiting caution ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting, with oil prices also showing a consolidation pattern after previous declines [2]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Group 1 - Silver prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase to $36.57 per ounce, marking a rise of 0.55% [1] - The opening price for silver today was $36.34 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.71 and a low of $36.27 [1] - Market expectations are building around the Federal Reserve signaling a potential interest rate cut, which may limit short-term gains for silver prices [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes reveal a divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, contributing to rising gold prices [2] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data continues to cool, the likelihood of a rate cut in September will increase, potentially weakening the dollar and supporting higher gold prices [2] - Trade tensions are expected to impact global economic growth, with new tariffs likely raising import costs and inflation pressures, enhancing gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [2] Group 3 - Aviva Investors anticipates a flattening of the long end of the Japanese government bond yield curve, suggesting a shift from long-term to short-term bond issuance [2] - The company notes that while monetary policy remains cautiously tightening, the timing of interest rate hikes remains highly uncertain [2] - Japanese automakers are significantly reducing export prices to the U.S. in response to high tariffs, with vehicle export price index to North America dropping 19.4% year-on-year, the largest decline since 2016 [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices showed strong rebound after hitting a near two-week low of 3382.61, closing at 3313.38, with current trading around 3324 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% to 44458.3, S&P 500 up 0.61% to 6263.26, and Nasdaq up 0.94% to 20611.34, marking a historical high [2] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with officials noting steady economic expansion despite uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation expectations and interest rate outlook, with discussions indicating significant uncertainty about future price trends [5] - President Trump announced new tariffs on products from eight countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, which has raised concerns about trade flows and the global economy [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, impacting market volatility [8] Group 3 - The situation in the Red Sea has escalated, with Houthi forces claiming to have attacked and sunk three commercial vessels, indicating a worsening crisis in the region [10] - Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have stalled, with Israeli military actions continuing against Palestinian targets, reflecting ongoing tensions [11] - The arrest of former South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl has raised concerns about political stability and potential implications for governance in South Korea [12][13]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 773.30 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.49% and a trading volume of 205,604 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai is quoted at 768.55 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.75 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from several countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff and others facing rates ranging from 20% to 30%, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting reveal increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [2] - Participants generally believe that the current monetary policy may be moderately restrictive, allowing the committee to wait for clearer inflation and economic activity prospects [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring U.S. initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials [3] - Despite Trump's announcement of tariffs, the market does not expect a significant rise in tariffs, leading to limited reaction in gold prices [3] - The gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold premium narrowing to 2.2 CNY per gram, indicating a range-bound trading strategy for gold [3]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely keep the official cash rate unchanged in the July meeting, adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its dovish stance from the May monetary policy statement but will not provide strong guidance on the timing of any further rate cuts [1] - The bank predicts that the market will have the discretion to determine whether the Reserve Bank will implement a rate cut to 3% in August, delay it until later this year, or completely abandon the idea of a rate cut [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The Reserve Bank may indicate that economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 is stronger than expected, but subsequent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic momentum, aligning with the forecasts made in May [1] - There may be an emphasis on short-term inflation remaining at concerningly high levels [1]