Group 1 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a sharp decline, approaching 3.87% and near flatline [1] - Gold prices maintained a decline of over 0.7%, reported at $3303 [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq increased by over 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1]

每经AI快讯，7月30日，美国国债收益率上涨，10年期国债收益率最新上涨2.6个基点，至4.354%。 ...

智通财经7月30日电，美国国债收益率上涨，10年期国债收益率最新上涨2.6个基点，至4.354%。 ...

美国国债收益率延续下跌势头，30年期国债收益率创7月11日以来最低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $24.4 to $3370.9 per ounce, marking a 0.72% decrease and reaching a two-week low of $3357 during the trading session [1] - The increase in the US dollar index by 1.02% to 98.634, alongside a slight rise in US Treasury yields, has put pressure on gold prices [1] - Enhanced overall market risk appetite is also seen as a negative factor for gold [1] Group 2 - A new trade agreement between the US and the EU was announced, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to begin, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned about the global economic situation and suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold or cryptocurrencies as alternative currencies [2]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight increase following a decline in new jobless claims [1] Group 1 - The decrease in new jobless claims indicates potential improvement in the labor market [1] - The rise in Treasury yields reflects market reactions to economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. has led to a slight increase in government bond yields [1] Group 1 - Initial jobless claims have decreased, indicating a potential strengthening in the labor market [1] - The decrease in claims may influence investor sentiment and expectations regarding economic growth [1] - The rise in government bond yields suggests a reaction to the improved labor market data [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly following a decrease in new jobless claims, indicating potential shifts in the labor market and economic outlook [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The decline in new jobless claims suggests a strengthening labor market, which may influence investor sentiment and economic forecasts [1] - The movement in Treasury yields reflects market reactions to economic data, particularly in relation to employment figures [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Rising Treasury yields can impact borrowing costs and investment strategies across various sectors [1] - The relationship between employment data and Treasury yields highlights the interconnectedness of labor market conditions and financial markets [1]