Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the US dollar may remain limited due to ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth and budget deficits in the US [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The rebound in the US consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board in May has contributed to a stronger dollar [1] - More positive data is needed to rebuild market confidence in US economic growth [1] Group 2: Risks and Outlook - Concerns regarding the budget deficit are expected to persist in the short term [1] - The dollar continues to face "downside risks" in the near term [1] - The unexpected rise in consumer confidence has somewhat mitigated these risks, but caution remains regarding the pursuit of a dollar index breakthrough above the 100 mark [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk expressed disappointment with President Trump's large spending bill, criticizing it for increasing the budget deficit and undermining the work of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) team [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Context - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's spending bill, which is seen as a significant legislative success for his second term, and it will now move to the Senate for a vote [2]. - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by over $3.3 trillion over the next decade, despite some cuts to social spending [2]. Group 2: Musk's Criticism - Musk has long claimed that without reducing the deficit, the U.S. could face bankruptcy, and he reiterated this sentiment during the CBS interview, questioning the feasibility of the bill being both grand and effective [2]. - This marks Musk's strongest criticism of the Trump administration to date, following previous comments on trade policies and conflicts with Trump officials regarding DOGE staffing [2]. Group 3: DOGE and Musk's Focus - Musk resigned from his position at DOGE to focus more on Tesla, indicating a commitment to work extensively on his company [3]. - He plans to significantly reduce his political campaign contributions after investing nearly $300 million in support of Trump and other Republicans last year [3]. - Musk expressed frustration with the cost-saving efforts of DOGE, suggesting that legislative obstacles hindered progress, with claimed savings of $175 billion being largely unverifiable [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tax proposal put forward by the Republican Party offers permanent (low-level) tax rates, which will provide certainty for the economy [1] Group 1: Fiscal Outlook - The goal is to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028 [1] - There is a "very optimistic" outlook regarding the deficit projections [1] Group 2: Trade and Revenue - Tariffs imposed by Trump are expected to generate "considerable (fiscal) revenue," amounting to several hundred billion dollars annually [1] - Major trade agreements are anticipated to emerge in the coming weeks [1]

土耳其财长：我们将保持预算纪律，但预算赤字可能略高于我们的预期。 ...

罗马尼亚当选总统达恩：2025年预算赤字的实际目标是占GDP的7.5%。 ...

在全球最大的债券市场，投资者正在抵制美国总统特朗普的减税计划。5月21日，由于政府官员与共和 党议员会面，敲定一项减税协议，基准30年期美国国债收益率当天飙升至5.1%，，并引发股市和美元 下跌。令人担忧的是，这项减税法案将在未来几年使本已膨胀的预算赤字再增加数万亿美元，而目前全 球投资者对美国资产的兴趣正在减弱。 ...

美国前财长努钦：比起贸易逆差，美国预算赤字其实更令人担忧。 ...

据路透调查：预计南非的预算赤字在2025/26年度占GDP比重为4.70%；2026/27年为4.40%（3月份政府 估计分别为4.60%和3.80%）。 ...

欧盟委员会：在政策不变的情况下，罗马尼亚的预算赤字预计将在2025年小幅下降至GDP的8.6%，在 2026年下降至GDP的8.4%。 ...