Core Viewpoint - The French Ministry of Finance aims for a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP by 2025, with the possibility of achieving this target this year, contingent upon an additional €5 billion in spending cuts [1] Group 1 - The target budget deficit for 2025 is set at 5.4% of GDP [1] - There is a potential to meet this year's budget deficit target, but it requires further expenditure reductions [1] - An additional €5 billion in spending cuts is necessary to achieve the budget goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed that there are various assessments regarding the impact of the Republican tax cut bill on the budget deficit, but he anticipates that the bill will reduce federal borrowing over the next ten years [1] Group 1 - Becerra stated that there are "various assessments" regarding the tax bill [1] - He believes that the tax bill will lead to a decrease in federal borrowing over a ten-year period [1]

美国财政部官员：美国五月预算赤字为3160亿美元（市场预期赤字为3180亿美元），较2024年五月的赤 字3470亿美元有所缩减。 ...

俄罗斯1月至5月预算赤字为3.4万亿卢布。 ...

以色列财政部：以色列5月份预算赤字占GDP的5%。 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the proposed "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is over 1,000 pages long and has passed the House with a narrow margin [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with total costs potentially reaching $5 trillion if certain tax cuts are made permanent [1][2] - The bill could push federal debt to $46.9 trillion by 2029, more than double the $20.2 trillion debt level when Trump took office in 2017 [1][2] Internal Divisions - Republican senators are divided on key issues such as debt, healthcare cuts, and state interests, with 53 senators expressing differing opinions [1][2] - Some fiscal hawks within the party believe the bill does not adequately address the budget deficit, with Senator Ron Johnson expressing his concerns directly to Trump [2] - Medicaid cuts have become a major point of contention, with proposed stricter eligibility requirements affecting over 70 million low-income and disabled individuals [2][3] State Interests - Local interests complicate negotiations, with concerns raised by senators from various states regarding the impact of proposed changes on state projects and tax structures [5] - The proposed increase in the state and local tax deduction cap has sparked intense debate among senators from high-tax states versus those from lower-tax states [5] Legislative Timeline - The approaching July 4 deadline adds urgency to the negotiations, with the Republican Party needing to find a balance among its internal divisions to advance the legislation [6] - The slim majority in the Senate (53-47) and the House (220-212) means that any small opposition could derail the bill [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slight slowdown, attributed to tariffs and high uncertainty, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [1] - The U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, marking the lowest growth since March 2023, suggesting a potential loss of economic momentum [2] - The non-manufacturing PMI in the U.S. fell to 49.9, indicating a contraction in service sector activity for the first time since June 2024 [2] Fiscal Policy and Budget - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Trump tax reform and spending bill could increase the U.S. budget deficit by over $2.42 trillion over the next decade, reducing revenues by $3.67 trillion while cutting spending by $1.25 trillion [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive time, indicating potential future rate cuts if economic weakness persists [2] - The European Central Bank approved Bulgaria's application to adopt the euro by January 1, 2026, making it the 21st member of the Eurozone [1] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw slight increases of 0.01% and 0.32%, respectively [4] - Gold futures rose by 0.60% to $3,397.40 per ounce, while oil prices for both WTI and Brent crude fell by approximately 1% [4] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields declined across various maturities, with the 2-year yield down by 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 30-year yield down by 10.76 basis points to 4.877% [5] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.47%, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [5]

美国经济数据疲软，降息预期飙升，道指终结四连涨；中概股指涨2%；美元重回低点，油价一度 跌约2%。 美国5月ADP"爆冷"！就业人数仅增3.7万人，为自2023年3月以来的最低；数据公布后，特朗普喊 话鲍威尔：现在必须降低利率！ 美国5月ISM服务业指数近一年来首次萎缩，需求大跌，价格高企。 美联储褐皮书：最近几周美国经济活动略有下滑，劳动力需求减弱，涨价预期更强。 普京与特朗普通话超1小时，聚焦俄机场遭袭及伊朗核问题。 沙特寻求夺取市场份额，希望OPEC+实施更多超大规模石油增产。 马斯克加大攻势，呼吁美国民众行动起来，"否决"特朗普减税法案。 美国会预算办公室（CBO）预计：特朗普支出法案未来十年会让联邦政府的预算赤字增加2.4万亿 美元。 美商务部长预计本月内设定飞机部件关税标准。 态度趋于强硬，印度就汽车关税问题挑战美国。 云端算力竞赛新突破：创纪录英伟达GB200参与MLPerf测试，性能提升超两倍。 提醒：欧洲央行周四将公布利率决议，料降息25个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that tariffs imposed by Trump on foreign goods could reduce the budget deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [1] - However, the CBO also indicates that Trump's tariff policy will lead to a decline in U.S. economic output [1] Economic Impact - The projected reduction in the budget deficit of $2.8 trillion highlights the potential fiscal benefits of the tariff policy [1] - The anticipated decrease in economic output suggests that while the tariffs may improve budgetary figures, they could negatively affect overall economic performance [1]

金十数据6月4日讯，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）最新估计显示，众议院通过的特朗普税收和支出法 案将在未来十年增加2.42万亿美元的预算赤字。测算显示，与基线预测相比，到2034年的十年间，"美 丽大法案"预计将导致收入减少3.67万亿美元，支出减少1.25万亿美元，而美国财政轨迹更加糟糕情况下 的前景可能会引发共和党财政鹰派人士对该法案的担忧。特朗普预计将于周三与参议院财政委员会共和 党人会面，讨论这项法案。特朗普政府官员一再驳斥国会预算办公室的预测是不准确的，称这些预测没 有考虑到减税、提高关税和放松管制将带来的经济增长提振。 美国国会预算办公室：共和党税收法案将使美国赤字增加2.4万亿美元 ...