Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan will lead to a direct government spending reduction of approximately $1.1 trillion over the next decade [1] - The plan is expected to decrease government revenue by about $4.5 trillion, resulting in an increase in the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion, slightly higher than previous forecasts [1] - By 2034, the legislation is anticipated to cause around 10 million Americans to lose their health insurance [1]

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple U.S. healthcare organizations strongly oppose President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, warning that the healthcare provisions will severely impact tens of millions of Americans [1] Group 1: Impact on Medicaid - The bill significantly alters the federal Medicaid program, which currently covers approximately 71 million low-income individuals [1] - According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the new bill's mandatory employment requirements and other regulations are expected to result in nearly 12 million people losing their health insurance [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed President Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a narrow vote of 51-50, relying on Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote [1] - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, exempts tips and overtime pay from taxation, cuts funding for Medicare and nutrition assistance, and allocates hundreds of billions for immigration enforcement and defense [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House and Senate versions of the bill will increase the U.S. deficit by $2.8 trillion and nearly $3.3 trillion, respectively, from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Modifications to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the Senate version are projected to increase the number of uninsured Americans by nearly 12 million by 2034 [1] Political Reactions - House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries described the bill as "Big and Ugly," claiming it harms ordinary Americans and could lead to loss of life due to lack of healthcare [2] - Democrats are committed to doing everything possible to prevent the bill from becoming law, especially since the Senate version requires re-approval from the House before it can be sent to the President [2] - Trump has urged Congress to pass the bill by July 4 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, a large-scale tax and spending proposal pushed by President Trump, with a vote of 51 in favor and 50 against [1][3] - The bill includes extensions of tax cuts for corporations and individuals, exemptions for tips and overtime income from taxation, and significant funding for border security and defense [5] - The Senate version of the bill raises the U.S. debt ceiling by an additional $5 trillion, exceeding the amount proposed by the House version [5] Group 1 - The Senate's approval followed extensive debate and voting on numerous proposed legislative amendments, with three Republican senators voting against it [3] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion by 2034, with changes to healthcare policies expected to increase the number of uninsured Americans by approximately 12 million [5] - Critics, including Democratic senators, argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy at the expense of working-class and middle-income families [7][8] Group 2 - The House of Representatives previously passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill with a narrow margin, but the Senate's significant modifications require it to be re-approved by the House before it can be signed into law by the President [10] - President Trump has urged Congress to pass the bill by July 4 [10]

Core Points - The Senate narrowly passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Trump, which is referred to as an "economic nuclear bomb" due to its significant tax cuts and social safety net reductions, while increasing military and immigration enforcement spending, leading to a projected $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][2] - The bill has been sent to the House for a final vote, but some Republican lawmakers have publicly opposed the Senate version [1] Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the Bill - Extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts - New tax benefits for tip income and overtime pay - Increased budget for military and immigration enforcement - Reduction of approximately $930 billion in Medicaid and food assistance for low-income individuals - Repeal of several green energy incentives from the previous Biden administration - The bill highlights divisions among Republicans regarding the $36.2 trillion national debt and raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] Legislative Process and Challenges - The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote; three Republican senators voted against it alongside all Democratic senators [3] - The final version included provisions to secure support from Senator Lisa Murkowski, such as additional food assistance for certain states and $50 billion in funding for rural hospitals [3] - The House, with a narrow Republican majority of 220-212, is expected to have a contentious vote, with Trump planning to engage deeply in lobbying efforts [3] Reactions and Implications - Billionaire Elon Musk criticized the bill for excessive spending and pledged to support challengers to current Republican lawmakers in the midterm elections [4] - Democratic leaders condemned the bill as the largest theft in U.S. healthcare history, claiming it would deprive hungry children of food [4] - The Tax Foundation indicated that the primary beneficiaries of the Senate version of the bill would be the top 1% of earners with incomes exceeding $663,000 in 2025 [5] - Independent analyses suggest that tightening food and healthcare eligibility will significantly reduce income for impoverished populations, with an estimated 12 million people losing healthcare coverage [6]

美国国会参议院当地时间7月1日通过一项大规模税收与支出法案。 在当天的投票中，51票赞成、50票反对。美国副总统、参议院议长万斯投出打破平局的关键一票。在此 次投票中，有3名共和党议员加入民主党阵营投票反对该法案。 根据该法案，美国总统特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施将得以延续；对小 费、汽车贷款利率等提供新的税收减免措施；增加3500亿美元联邦预算，用于国防支出和打击非法移 民。为弥补减税带来的收入减少，该法案将提高贫困群体获得医疗保险和食品援助项目资格的门槛等。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 5月22日，众议院以215票赞成、214票反对通过该税收与支出法案，但因为参议院对该法案作出改动， 众议院还需就参议院通过版本法案进行表决。如果获得通过，将由总统签字生效。 对于该法案，参议院民主党人表示强烈反对。为拖延投票进程，民主党人要求朗读该法案全文。该法案 共940页，整个朗读过程长达16小时。参议院民主党领袖舒默称，"参议院共和党人背叛了美国民众，让 参议院蒙羞"。 该法案在共和党内部也存在分歧。部分温和派议员反对在医保、社保等领域削减预算；部分保守派议员 则认为该法案削减预算力度不够 ...

智通财经6月30日电，据新华社，美国总统特朗普29日谈及他与美国企业家埃隆·马斯克的关系，称马斯 克"有点沮丧"，他的近期行为"不当"。此前一天，马斯克再次对特朗普力推的"大而美"税收与支出法案 进行了猛烈批评。特朗普29日接受福克斯新闻频道采访。记者问："你和埃隆·马斯克谈过吗？发生了什 么事？""我和他没有太多交谈，但我认为埃隆是个很棒的人，我知道他会一直做得很好。"特朗普回 答，"他是个聪明人。他曾和我一起参加竞选活动。但后来他有点沮丧，这是不合适的。"记者追 问："为什么沮丧？是因为他没有得到自己想要的？"特朗普答道："关于电动汽车的强制政策，对他来 说是一件很难的事。你知道，我不希望每个人都必须拥有一辆电动汽车。" 特朗普谈马斯克：他有点沮丧 近期行为"不当" ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk criticized the latest Senate draft of a large-scale tax and spending bill, calling it "crazy" and "devastating," claiming it would increase taxes on various renewable energy projects [1] - The bill is expected to destroy millions of jobs and cause significant strategic damage to the country, according to Musk [1] - The legislation includes a new subsidy for coal used in steel production, which Musk argues undermines future industries while providing handouts to past industries [1] Group 2 - Musk's earlier comments have led to a deterioration in his relationship with Trump, despite previously donating over $250 million to Trump's re-election campaign [2] - Following Musk's initial criticism, Tesla's stock dropped 14% in a single day due to threats of reassessing and potentially revoking government contracts [2] - Musk expressed regret over some of his posts after the public dispute with Trump, but he later supported Trump's immigration policies and moderated his political posts until his recent comments on the Republican bill [2]

两名"反水"共 和党议员蒂利斯（左）和保罗（右） 【文/观察者网 刘程辉】美国共和党人掌控的众议院上月艰难通过"大而美"税收与支出法案后，参议院 也于当地时间6月28日以微弱优势（51：49）勉强通过了推进这项法案的动议。随后这项法案将经过大 约12个小时的宣读全文，最多20个小时的辩论，再加上马拉松式的一系列修正案投票，才能进入到最终 表决。 共和党希望争取在7月4日前让法案在国会过关，并送交总统特朗普签署。 美国"政客"新闻网称，要想最终通过这项法案，参议院共和党人最多只能出现三张反对票。尽管副总统 万斯亲自与不同意见的共和党议员谈判，但在这次的动议投票中，仍有两名共和党参议员投下了反对 票，他们分别是肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗（Rand Paul）和北卡罗来纳州的汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis），原本持反对立场的威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson）最终转为了支持。 就在这项动议通过几小时后，特朗普对"反水"共和党议员展开猛烈炮轰。他在"真实社交"上连发多条动 态，抨击蒂利斯犯下了"大错"，并表示自己正在物色"真正能代表北卡罗来纳人民"的人，威胁将支持初 选挑战者对抗蒂利斯。 北卡罗 ...