Core Viewpoint - The total outstanding public sector debt in the United States has surpassed $37 trillion, indicating a growing reliance on borrowing for government spending and increasing interest burdens [1] Debt Statistics - As of August 11, the total outstanding public sector debt reached $37 trillion, while the statutory debt ceiling is set at $41.1 trillion, with constrained public debt totaling $36.89 trillion [1] - The U.S. public sector debt is projected to reach $34 trillion by January 2024, and subsequently increase to $35 trillion and $36 trillion by July and November of the same year, respectively [1] Legislative Impact - The "Inflation Reduction Act," which became law in July, is expected to increase U.S. debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The previous forecast from the Congressional Budget Office in January 2020 anticipated that federal debt would exceed $37 trillion after the fiscal year 2030 [1] Economic Context - The U.S. GDP for 2024 is projected at $29.18 trillion, with a growth rate of 2.8%, leading to a public sector debt-to-GDP ratio of 126.8% [1]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 36,045 kilograms as of August 12 [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 777.52 yuan per gram, with a high of 778.78 yuan and a low of 775.52 yuan, closing at 776.04 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.12% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 194,063 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 6,908 contracts to 204,736 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office reported that the tax and spending bill promoted by President Trump is expected to increase the average annual income of the top 10% of American households by approximately $13,600 due to tax cuts [1] - Conversely, the lowest 10% of households are projected to see an average annual income decrease of $1,200 due to restrictions on government programs such as healthcare and food assistance [1] - By 2034, over 10 million people are expected to lose health insurance as a result of adjustments to Medicaid under this bill [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan will lead to a direct government spending reduction of approximately $1.1 trillion over the next decade [1] - The plan is expected to decrease government revenue by about $4.5 trillion, resulting in an increase in the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion, slightly higher than previous forecasts [1] - By 2034, the legislation is anticipated to cause around 10 million Americans to lose their health insurance [1]

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple U.S. healthcare organizations strongly oppose President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, warning that the healthcare provisions will severely impact tens of millions of Americans [1] Group 1: Impact on Medicaid - The bill significantly alters the federal Medicaid program, which currently covers approximately 71 million low-income individuals [1] - According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the new bill's mandatory employment requirements and other regulations are expected to result in nearly 12 million people losing their health insurance [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed President Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a narrow vote of 51-50, relying on Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote [1] - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, exempts tips and overtime pay from taxation, cuts funding for Medicare and nutrition assistance, and allocates hundreds of billions for immigration enforcement and defense [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House and Senate versions of the bill will increase the U.S. deficit by $2.8 trillion and nearly $3.3 trillion, respectively, from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Modifications to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the Senate version are projected to increase the number of uninsured Americans by nearly 12 million by 2034 [1] Political Reactions - House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries described the bill as "Big and Ugly," claiming it harms ordinary Americans and could lead to loss of life due to lack of healthcare [2] - Democrats are committed to doing everything possible to prevent the bill from becoming law, especially since the Senate version requires re-approval from the House before it can be sent to the President [2] - Trump has urged Congress to pass the bill by July 4 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, a large-scale tax and spending proposal pushed by President Trump, with a vote of 51 in favor and 50 against [1][3] - The bill includes extensions of tax cuts for corporations and individuals, exemptions for tips and overtime income from taxation, and significant funding for border security and defense [5] - The Senate version of the bill raises the U.S. debt ceiling by an additional $5 trillion, exceeding the amount proposed by the House version [5] Group 1 - The Senate's approval followed extensive debate and voting on numerous proposed legislative amendments, with three Republican senators voting against it [3] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion by 2034, with changes to healthcare policies expected to increase the number of uninsured Americans by approximately 12 million [5] - Critics, including Democratic senators, argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy at the expense of working-class and middle-income families [7][8] Group 2 - The House of Representatives previously passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill with a narrow margin, but the Senate's significant modifications require it to be re-approved by the House before it can be signed into law by the President [10] - President Trump has urged Congress to pass the bill by July 4 [10]

Core Points - The Senate narrowly passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Trump, which is referred to as an "economic nuclear bomb" due to its significant tax cuts and social safety net reductions, while increasing military and immigration enforcement spending, leading to a projected $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][2] - The bill has been sent to the House for a final vote, but some Republican lawmakers have publicly opposed the Senate version [1] Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the Bill - Extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts - New tax benefits for tip income and overtime pay - Increased budget for military and immigration enforcement - Reduction of approximately $930 billion in Medicaid and food assistance for low-income individuals - Repeal of several green energy incentives from the previous Biden administration - The bill highlights divisions among Republicans regarding the $36.2 trillion national debt and raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] Legislative Process and Challenges - The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote; three Republican senators voted against it alongside all Democratic senators [3] - The final version included provisions to secure support from Senator Lisa Murkowski, such as additional food assistance for certain states and $50 billion in funding for rural hospitals [3] - The House, with a narrow Republican majority of 220-212, is expected to have a contentious vote, with Trump planning to engage deeply in lobbying efforts [3] Reactions and Implications - Billionaire Elon Musk criticized the bill for excessive spending and pledged to support challengers to current Republican lawmakers in the midterm elections [4] - Democratic leaders condemned the bill as the largest theft in U.S. healthcare history, claiming it would deprive hungry children of food [4] - The Tax Foundation indicated that the primary beneficiaries of the Senate version of the bill would be the top 1% of earners with incomes exceeding $663,000 in 2025 [5] - Independent analyses suggest that tightening food and healthcare eligibility will significantly reduce income for impoverished populations, with an estimated 12 million people losing healthcare coverage [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a large tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 in favor and 50 against, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote [1] - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initiated by President Trump in 2017, introduces new tax relief measures for small expenses and auto loans, and increases federal budget by $350 billion for defense spending and combating illegal immigration [1] - The bill will raise the eligibility thresholds for healthcare and food assistance programs to offset revenue losses from tax cuts [2] Group 2 - The Senate version of the bill eliminates tax credits for electric vehicles starting September 30, and only wind and solar projects that begin production before the end of 2027 will qualify for tax credits [1] - There are divisions within the Republican Party regarding the bill, with some moderate members opposing budget cuts in healthcare and social security, while conservative members argue that the cuts are insufficient and will increase debt [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade and will result in an additional 11.8 million uninsured individuals by 2034 [2]

Group 1 - President Trump commented on Elon Musk's recent behavior, describing him as "a bit frustrated" and stating that his actions are "inappropriate" [1] - Musk has been critical of Trump's proposed "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan, indicating a growing tension between the two [1] - Trump acknowledged Musk's intelligence and past collaboration during the campaign, but noted that Musk's frustration stems from mandatory electric vehicle policies, which he believes are challenging for Musk [1]