Core Viewpoint - The ambitious 90-day trade negotiation plan of the Trump administration is facing significant challenges, particularly with Japan, where negotiations have stalled over auto tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - After weeks of negotiations, the US and Japan have severe disagreements on auto tariffs, with Japan refusing to accept any agreement that retains the 25% tariff imposed by Trump [1][2]. - Trump indicated that he might unilaterally impose tariffs on Japanese imports, suggesting potential rates of "30% or 35% or any number we determine" [1]. - The Japanese government is under political pressure, especially with the upcoming Senate elections on July 20, making it difficult for them to concede on tariff issues [2]. Group 2: Broader Trade Negotiations - The US is also facing difficulties in trade negotiations with other major partners, including Canada and South Korea, with stalled talks following the US's unexpected increase in steel tariffs on Canada [2][3]. - Negotiations with Canada were briefly interrupted but resumed after Canada canceled its digital services tax plan, aiming for an agreement by July 21 [3]. - The complexity of negotiations with South Korea is heightened by issues surrounding digital trade regulations, which have caused dissatisfaction among US trade representatives [3]. Group 3: Expectations and Challenges - Despite the White House's claims of working tirelessly to renegotiate trade agreements, there is acknowledgment from Republican senators that reaching actual agreements may take longer than anticipated [4].

法国总统马克龙：如果美国的关税维持在10%，欧洲将不得不对美国工业采取相应的补偿性关税措施。 ...

法国总统马克龙：我们必须充分利用所有可用工具应对美国关税措施。 ...

美联储戴利：关税措施对通胀的影响将是暂时的。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：关税措施对通胀的影响可能仅限于温和程度。 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 | | 表2：6月25日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 持仓 | 前 20 空头 持仓 | 前 20 多头 持仓变化 | 前 20 空头 持仓变化 | 多空 对比 | 偏离度 | | RB2510 | 1,317,735 | 1,330,674 | -10,103 | -19,796 | 9,693 | 0.73% | | HC2510 | 1,113,631 | 1,015,776 | -415 | -16,937 | 16,522 | 1.55% | | SS2508 | 1 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：鉴于关税措施，预计未来几个月内通胀将有所上升。 ...

美联储柯林斯：由于关税措施，核心个人消费支出通胀预计到今年年底将超过3%。 ...

美国财长贝森特：如果法院干涉特朗普的关税措施，债务上限的X日期可能会改变。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：除关税措施外，通胀率基本符合预期。 ...