Report Title - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Strategy Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are still bearish, but the price fluctuation is intensified due to the game between bulls and bears. The lithium ore price continues to fall, with the lowest transaction price dropping to $600/ton. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, and the production is expected to increase in June. The cathode production data is average, but the cathode inventory is continuously digested. The cell production continues to slow down, but the terminal sales are still eye - catching with a high penetration rate. The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with a slight increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and intermediate inventories [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops by 4.9%, and the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and most cathode materials decline. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops from 66,960 yuan/ton to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) drops from $779/ton to $676/ton [5][6] 2 Inventory - The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons. The downstream inventory increases by 752 tons to 41,616 tons, the intermediate - link inventory decreases by 180 tons to 33,720 tons, and the upstream inventory decreases by 780 tons to 56,235 tons [5][12] 3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the trends of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and lithium hydroxide export profit, etc., but specific profit data are not summarized in the text [18][19] 4 Supply 4.1 Lithium Resources - The production data of sample lithium mica mines and Chinese sample spodumene mines are provided. For example, on April 30, 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) is 15,450 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines is 4,900 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent [25] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons. Among them, the production from lithium spodumene increases by 20 tons to 7,519 tons, from lithium mica increases by 370 tons to 4,382 tons, from salt - lake lithium extraction increases by 67 tons to 2,907 tons, and from recycling lithium extraction increases by 30 tons to 1,772 tons [5][29] 4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts show the production, capacity, and production by process and region of lithium hydroxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [41][42] 4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts present the production, export, and monthly operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as the theoretical production cost of solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate produced by purchasing LiF externally, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [44][45] 4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts show the recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries, including the total volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [49][50] 5 Materials 5.1 Ternary Precursor - Charts show the profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export volume of ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [52][53] 5.2 Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreases by 282 tons to 14,894 tons. Charts also show the production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary materials [5][55] 5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreases by 1,172 tons to 81,378 tons. Charts show the operating rate, capacity, production, cost, and export of lithium iron phosphate [5][57] 5.4 Other Materials - Charts show the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [58][59] 6 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells decreases by 19.9% to 19.23 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron cells decreases by 25.5% to 12.28 GWh, and the production of ternary cells decreases by 7.8% to 6.95 GWh [5][61] 7 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From May 1 - 25, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market is 726,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market is 53.5%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 4.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [5][70] 8 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts show the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [72][73] 9 Options - Charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate closing prices, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

碳酸锂周报 供应压力仍存，价格延续偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/4/28 需求端：4月整体排产预计环比持平。3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。动力和 其他电池合计出口23.0GWh，环比增长8.8%，同比增长75.3%。动力和其他电池销量为115.4GWh，环比增长28.3%，同比增长 64.9%。以旧换新政策出台和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现累库状态，工厂库存周内增加2860吨至32560吨，市场库存减少3722吨，广期所库存增加2233吨。 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，碳酸锂产量稳增，3月产量环比增加24%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，3月锂精矿进口量环比减少6%，3月锂盐进口环 比增加47%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但美国对等关税 政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面 ...