Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, down from 7.7% in March, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.4%[3] - High-tech industries maintained a strong performance with a 10% year-on-year growth in April, although slightly down from 10.7% in March[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4% in April, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter[3] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[3] - Jewelry retail sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than the previous month's 10.6% growth[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales also showed strong growth at 38.8% year-on-year in April, up from 35.1% in March[3] Employment and External Factors - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions[3] - Despite external pressures, domestic demand indicators such as employment and retail sales did not show signs of a sharp decline, suggesting resilience in the economy[3] - The report highlights potential risks from export-driven growth strategies that may affect the second half of the year[3]

大陆消费月报： 社会零售维持较快增长 群益上海 顾向君 2025.5.19 0 一、宏观消费运行概述 ➢社会消费品零售总额：5月零售保持较快增长 ➢出行情况：出行热情持续高涨 二、消费行业运行概述 ➢票房：五一票房惨淡，市场观望后续行情 ➢CPI：食品价格反弹冲销燃油价格下跌影响 ➢生产资料价格走势：生产资料价格低迷，关税影响消除 ➢期间板块涨跌情况：板块偏强运行 ➢行业观点：五月假日效应及电商大促共振，零售增速有望保持高位 1 社零保持较快增长 图1：社会消费品零售总额单月变动 单位：亿元，% 图2：零售分项单月同比变动 单位：% 资料来源：国家统计局，群益金鼎证券 资料来源：国家统计局，群益金鼎证券 ➢ 一如我们此前判断，尽管4月假日经济效应较弱，得益于补贴政策支撑，社会零售增 速仍保持较快的增长：4月消费品零售总额约3.7万亿，同比增5.1%（3月 yoy+5.9%）。其中，商品零售实现收入约3.3万亿，同比增5.1%（3月yoy+5.9%）， 餐饮销售额4167亿，同比增5.2%（3月yoy+5.6%）；网上零售1.1万亿，同比增 1.4%（3月yoy+16.7%），网上零售占比为30.1%，环比3月 ...

Economic Overview - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% and a month-on-month growth of 0.24% [2][3] - The total import and export value of goods in April was 38,391 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6][7] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 33,548 billion yuan in April, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [3] - The growth rate of service consumption, such as catering, outpaced that of goods retail, with catering revenue reaching 4,167 billion yuan, a growth of 5.2% [3][4] - Online retail sales for the first four months totaled 47,419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] Import and Export Dynamics - Exports in April were 22,645 billion yuan, increasing by 9.3%, while imports were 15,745 billion yuan, growing by 0.8% [6] - From January to April, the total import and export value was 141,389 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [7] - Trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries accelerated, with imports and exports to ASEAN growing by 9.2% year-on-year [7] Consumer Goods Performance - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively [4]

| 指 标 | 4月 绝对量 | | 1—4月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 同比增长（%） | 绝对量 | 同比增长（%） | | | （亿元） | | （亿元） | | | 社会消费品零售总额 | 37174 | 5.1 | 161845 | 4.7 | | 其中：除汽车以外的消费品零售额 | 33548 | 5.6 | 147005 | 5.2 | | 其中：限额以上单位消费品零售额 | 14992 | 6.3 | 64082 | 5.9 | | 其中：实物商品网上零售额 | - | - | 39265 | 5.8 | | 按经营地分 | | | | | | 城镇 | 32376 | 5.2 | 140433 | 4.7 | | 乡村 | 4798 | 4.7 | 21412 | 4.8 | | 按消费类型分 | | | | | | 餐饮收入 | 4167 | 5.2 | 18194 | 4.8 | | 其中：限额以上单位餐饮收入 | 1230 | 3.7 | 5197 | 4.4 | | 商品零售额 | 33007 | 5.1 | 143651 | ...

Retail Performance Overview - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [5] - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% year-on-year [5] Urban and Rural Consumption - In April, urban retail sales were 32,376 billion yuan, increasing by 5.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 4,798 billion yuan, up by 4.7% [2] - For the first four months, urban retail sales totaled 140,433 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.7%, and rural retail sales reached 21,412 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% [2] Retail Categories - In April, the retail sales of goods were 33,007 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and catering revenue was 4,167 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [5] - From January to April, the retail sales of goods totaled 143,651 billion yuan, increasing by 4.7%, while catering revenue reached 18,194 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5] Online Retail Performance - From January to April, online retail sales reached 47,419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [4] - Among online retail, the sales of physical goods were 39,265 billion yuan, growing by 5.8%, accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [4] Retail Formats - For the first four months, retail sales in convenience stores, specialty stores, supermarkets, department stores, and brand specialty stores grew by 9.1%, 6.4%, 5.2%, 1.7%, and 1.4% respectively [4]

工业增速或高位放缓 参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对4月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.62%，低于上月7.7%的公布 数据。 从先行指标来看，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，在连续2个 月运行在扩张区间后落入50%以下。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群分析认为，4月份PMI出现回落，且回到荣枯线之下，表明经 济底部回升态势仍有不稳定性。新订单指数、新出口订单指数出现明显回落，表明外部环境复杂变化引 起的需求收缩倾向有所显现，必须高度重视。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘预计，4月工业增加值将同比增长6.5%左右。高频数据显示，4月高 炉、焦化开工率同比提高2.7个、15.1个百分点，但水泥开工率同比下行0.2个百分点。此外，关税影响 下，当月出口亦有所放缓。 本周中美经贸会谈取得阶段性重大成果，随着外部冲击减缓，以及稳增长、促消费政策发力，政策效应 进一步释放，国内有效需求不足状况有望改善。 二季度以来，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，中国经济表现如何，备受市场关注。国家统计局将于5月19日发 布4月宏观经济数据。机构预计，对等关税对中国经济的影响将逐渐显现。 面对外部 ...

Group 1: Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, private investment grew by 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022, primarily impacted by a decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% [1][7] - Excluding real estate development, private investment increased by 6.0% in Q1 2025, while national fixed asset investment reached 103,174 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [1][3] - The share of private investment in national fixed asset investment dropped to below 50% for the first time since 2012, with a recorded share of 50.1% in 2024 [1][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector private investment rose by 9.7%, continuing a trend of high growth since 2021, driven by factors such as export growth and supportive policies [1][7] - Infrastructure private investment also saw a significant increase of 9.3%, contrasting with a decline in private investment in the tertiary sector, which fell by 7.7% [1][6] - The first industry investment grew by 16.0%, while the second industry investment increased by 11.9%, indicating robust performance in these sectors [5][6] Group 3: Economic Contributions - Net exports contributed significantly to economic growth, increasing by 50.4% and accounting for nearly 40% of GDP growth, despite a 6.0% decline in imports [2][4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy supported a 4.6% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, highlighting the potential for further consumption growth [2][3] - State-owned investment grew by 6.5%, helping to stabilize overall investment growth amid declining private investment and real estate development [2][5] Group 4: Legislative Support - The newly passed Private Economy Promotion Law aims to enhance private investment by encouraging participation in national strategies and major projects, effective from May 20, 2025 [2][7] - The law is expected to support a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [2][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

一季度各大城市GDP相继出炉。 前十强排名依旧，但仔细观察发现：武汉与杭州的差距拉大，并被南京步步紧逼。 但在社会消费品零售总额方面，武汉却颇为亮眼，连续赶超南京、苏州和深圳，排在第六位。 今年GDP前十强城市的竞争让人充满期待！#武汉GDP 01 2025年一季度各城市的经济数据陆续披露。 武汉几乎要掉出十强。 可以说，武汉面临着标兵渐远，追兵渐近的局面。 GDP前十城市排名依然是上海、北京、深圳、重庆、广州、苏州、成都、杭州、武汉、南京。 | | | | 2025年一季度GDP十强城市数据 单位: 亿元 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | 2025第一季度 | 2024第一季度 | 增量 | 名义增长率 | 实际增长率 | | 上海市 | 12735.06 | 12155 | 580.06 | 4.77% | 5.1% | | 北京市 | 12159.9 | 11519 | 640.9 | 5.56% | 5.5% | | 深圳市 | 8950.49 | 8314.98 | 635.51 | 7.64% | 5.2% | | 重庆市 | 7 ...

报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...