1-7月，规模以上工业增加值达到2613亿元，同比增长6.9%，高于全国平均水平。值得关注的是，计算 机通信和其他电子设备制造业、汽车制造业、电气机械和器材制造业三大行业表现尤为突出，成为拉动 工业增长的"主力军"。报告显示，计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业、汽车制造业、电气机械和器材制 造业增加值分别增长17.0%、30.1%和8.5%。 在产业结构优化升级进程中，1-7月，高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业、装备制造业增加值分别增长 8.3%、9.7%和10.3%，增速均高于规模以上工业平均水平，分别高出1.4、2.8和3.4个百分点。 在智能制造领域，杭州同样展现强劲发展势头。1-7月，工业控制计算机及系统产量增长101.3%，工业 机器人产量增长110.1%。 服务业迅速增长新兴服务业成增长亮点 商报讯(记者徐菁菁通讯员李叶彩方志)日前，杭州市统计局发布2025年1-7月杭州经济运行情况。总的来 看，在消费政策的稳步推进下，消费市场继续恢复，工业稳健支撑基本面，总体保持平稳运行态势，展 现出较强的韧性与活力。 部分升级类商品消费活跃民生消费筑牢根基 1-7月，全市消费市场展现出强劲活力与多元态势，消费对经济增 ...

服务业发展势头良好，数字经济引领增长。1—6月，全市规模以上服务业营业收入10944亿元，同比增 长8.6%，增速较1—5月加快0.6个百分点。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增长12.7%，科学研 究和技术服务业增长6.2%，增速均有所提升。数字经济核心产业服务业、高技术服务业营业收入分别 增长12.6%和11.8%，成为服务业增长的重要引擎。这表明杭州在打造数字经济第一城方面持续发力， 数字技术创新与产业升级相互促进的发展格局进一步巩固。 杭州市统计局日前发布全市1—7月经济运行情况，数据展示了杭州经济强劲的脉搏——消费政策稳步推 进需求回升，消费市场继续恢复，出口突围验证开放路径有效，工业稳健支撑基本面，新质生产力的迅 速起势更预示着未来转型的动能所在，呈现出既稳得住、又迸发新活力的特点。 消费市场持续回暖，升级类消费表现亮眼。1—7月，全市社会消费品零售总额5271亿元，同比增长 5.1%。在"以旧换新"等促消费政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类商品零售额分别增长 86.3%和34.5%，新能源汽车零售额增长23.7%，显示绿色消费、智能消费成为新趋势。升级类消费需求 旺盛，体育娱乐用品 ...

一是商品消费稳步增长，家电家具手机持续热销。7月份，商品零售额同比增长4.0%，其中限额以上单 位商品零售额增长3.1%。1-7月，商品零售额增长4.9%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，7月份限额以上 单位家电、家具、通讯器材、文化办公用品零售额同比分别增长28.7%、20.6%、14.9%和13.8%。据汽 车流通协会数据，7月份乘用车零售量同比增长6.3%，其中新能源乘用车零售量增长12.0%，渗透率达 54%。升级类商品保持较快增长，限额以上单位体育娱乐用品、金银珠宝零售额同比分别增长13.7%和 8.2%。 二是暑期消费亮点纷呈，文体旅游"热"力十足。1-7月，服务零售额中，文体休闲服务类、旅游咨询租 赁服务类、交通出行服务类零售额保持两位数增长。避暑游人气火爆，平台数据显示，"夏日避暑好去 处"搜索热度大幅上升。文博游备受青睐，博物馆预定热度同比增长超2倍。电影市场人气较旺，暑期档 电影票房突破100亿元，一批国产优质影片口碑票房双丰收。"中国购"成为热词，离境退税政策优化叠 加免签国家扩容，推动入境消费大幅增长。 三是线上消费较快增长，实体零售加快创新转型。1-7月，网上零售额同比增长9.2%，增速 ...

Group 1: Overall Consumption Trends - In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28,423.8 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year; in July alone, the retail sales totaled 3,878 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - The consumption market shows a stable development trend, with basic living and upgraded goods sales improving, and the "old-for-new" policy contributing to the growth of certain products [4][5] Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - The service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year in the first seven months, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The rural market's sales growth outpaced urban areas, with rural retail sales reaching 516 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% [2] Group 3: Specific Product Categories - In July, retail sales of basic living and upgraded goods showed positive trends, with over 70% of product categories in large retail units experiencing growth; categories like sports and entertainment goods grew by 13.7%, jewelry by 8.2%, and daily necessities by 8.2% [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant growth in home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales, which increased by 28.7% year-on-year [4][5] Group 4: Online Consumption Dynamics - Online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan in the first seven months, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%; physical goods online retail sales grew by 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [6] - New consumption models such as live-streaming e-commerce are maturing, contributing to the growth of the silver economy and first-release economy [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall consumption market is expected to maintain stability, with ongoing implementation of macro policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving the consumption environment [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][45] Core Viewpoints - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with furniture and home appliances showing rapid growth [4][6] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan in July, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 34,931 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [5][6] - Urban and rural retail sales in July were 33,620 billion yuan and 5,160 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 3.9% [5][6] Summary by Category Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 34,931 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.3% [5][6] Essential Consumption - Essential consumption showed steady growth, with year-on-year retail sales for staple food and oil increasing by 8.6%, beverages by 2.7%, tobacco and alcohol by 2.7%, and daily necessities by 8.2% [17][23] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, gold and silver jewelry and communication equipment saw rapid growth, with year-on-year retail sales for clothing and textiles increasing by 1.8%, cosmetics by 4.5%, gold and silver jewelry by 8.2%, and communication equipment by 14.9% [21][30] Other Consumer Categories - In other consumer categories, retail sales for home appliances and furniture showed significant growth, with furniture retail sales increasing by 20.6% and home appliances by 28.7%. However, building materials saw a decline of 0.5%, and petroleum products decreased by 8.3% [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].

Economic Overview - In the first seven months of 2023, Beijing's total market consumption increased by 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 767.43 billion yuan, showing a decline of 4.2% [1] Sector Performance - Service consumption grew by 4.6%, driven by information services, transportation, and cultural entertainment sectors [1] - Retail sales in the household appliances and audio-visual equipment category increased by 6.9%, boosted by the "trade-in" policy, with a growth rate improvement of 2.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Jewelry, grain and oil products, cosmetics, and sports and entertainment goods saw significant retail sales growth of 32.7%, 12.1%, 8.2%, and 6.1% respectively [1] Declines in Specific Categories - Automotive retail sales decreased by 19.0% due to insufficient demand in the fuel vehicle market [1] - Retail sales of cultural office supplies and communication equipment fell by 3.6% and 24.4% respectively, influenced by the diversification of sales channels among some headquarters enterprises [1] Consumption Breakdown - In terms of consumption forms, goods retail accounted for 688.23 billion yuan, down by 4.3% [1] - Restaurant income reached 79.2 billion yuan, declining by 3.6% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][17]. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the growth was 4.3% [4][5]. - The growth trend in retail sales continues, with goods retail growing by 4% and catering income increasing by 1.1% in July [4][5]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 284,238 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - In July 2025, essential goods maintained steady growth, with categories such as grain and oil, tobacco and alcohol, and daily necessities growing by 8.6%, 2.7%, and 8.2% respectively. In the optional category, cosmetics, gold and jewelry, and clothing grew by 4.5%, 8.2%, and 1.8% respectively [4][8]. - The online retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 increased by 9.2%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [8]. Future Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The report anticipates that domestic policies focusing on stimulating consumption and countering supply-side issues will create a favorable environment for future consumption recovery [4][11]. - Recommendations for long-term investment opportunities include: 1. Cross-border expansion: With improving external trade conditions, companies like Xiaogoods City, Focus Technology, and Anker Innovation are highlighted [4][11]. 2. Gold and jewelry: Companies such as Chao Hong Ji, Chow Tai Fook, and Cai Bai Co. are expected to benefit from high gold prices and consumer demand [4][11]. 3. Beauty and personal care: Brands like Shiseido, Dengkang Oral Care, and Shanghai Jahwa are positioned to gain market share due to domestic product replacement [4][11]. 4. Traditional retail: Companies like Chongqing Department Store and Miniso are noted for their potential in improving performance and being undervalued [4][13].

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.38%[4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.2%, indicating its core support role in the economy[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% in July[4] Sector Analysis - 35 out of 41 industrial categories reported growth, achieving a growth coverage of 85.4%[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.3%, led by integrated circuit manufacturing at 26.9%[4] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, marking a historical low[4] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances (+28.7%) and communication equipment (+14.9%), showed strong growth[5] - Service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2%, driven by summer tourism and sports events[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be lower than in the second quarter, primarily due to the real estate sector's challenges[5] - Despite potential slowdowns, achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% remains feasible due to ongoing export support and consumption policies[5] - Risks include the possibility of domestic demand recovery being slower than anticipated[5]

Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of automobiles fell by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.1 percentage points compared to June, closely linked to the recent downturn in the real estate market[3] - Retail sales of communication equipment rose by 14.9%, while home appliances and furniture grew by 28.7% and 20.6%, respectively, despite declines from June[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 5.3% year-on-year in July, the largest drop since April 2020[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 17.0% year-on-year, the lowest since December 2022, indicating a renewed acceleration in market adjustments[4] - The area of residential sales decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, remaining at a low level despite a slight improvement[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points, with the mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[6] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points to 8.5%, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting the combined effects of supply-side policies and demand cooling[6] Policy Implications - The simultaneous cooling of retail, investment, and real estate markets in July may signal the need for policy measures in the second half of the year[6] - The central government may need to implement larger subsidies for durable goods consumption and consider a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points to stabilize the real estate market[6]