今天分享的是：西南证券：新经济、新动能行业洞察系列（二）：新消费演进中的价格与产业洞察 报告共计：26页 本报告为西南证券新经济新动能行业洞察系列第二篇，聚焦新消费演进对宏观经济、价格体系及产业发展的多维影响，指出新消费以信 息技术为驱动、以品质化个性化为导向，是内需大循环的战略支柱，其战略地位随政策持续加码不断提升。 新消费成为宏观经济结构升级的核心动力，2023年以来最终消费支出对GDP贡献率稳居首位，2025年我国消费对GDP拉动率稳定在3%左 右，显著高于发达经济体。服务消费增长动能突出，2025年服务零售额增速超商品零售额1.7个百分点，商品零售中通讯器材、文化办公 用品等新消费品类增速领跑，旅游、观影等服务消费呈现节日爆发式增长特征。同时，新消费推动传统职业迭代，2025年新增多个消费 升级相关职业与工种，灵活就业成为就业增收重要途径，且灵活就业群体消费倾向更高，形成就业与消费的良性互动。 新消费推动CPI权重重构与价格结构性修复，2021-2025年居住、交通通信CPI权重显著提升，食品烟酒、生活用品及服务权重下降，反映 居民消费从基础刚需向品质升级转变。CPI品类价格呈现分化修复态势，衣着、医 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Dongsheng District has focused on steady progress and promoting new economic drivers, leading to significant growth in the consumption market and laying a solid foundation for high-quality regional development [1] Group 1: Consumption Scale and Market Vitality - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Dongsheng District is projected to reach 25.28 billion yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% and an increase of 5.03 billion yuan compared to 2021, maintaining a leading position for five consecutive years [2] - The number of retail and catering units above the designated size has increased from 166 in 2021 to 260 in 2025, a growth of 1.6 times, supported by optimized business environment and targeted investment attraction [5] Group 2: Consumption Structure and Quality Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods above the designated size is expected to reach 14.71 billion yuan by 2025, an increase of 5.31 billion yuan from 2021 [7] - Basic living demand remains stable, with retail sales of essential goods accounting for 18.2% in 2025, up from 17.7% in 2021 [7] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles have surged, accounting for 32.5% in 2025, a significant increase of 29.5 percentage points from 2021 [7] - Upgraded goods such as jewelry, home appliances, and communication devices have seen their retail sales share rise to 7.7%, up by 4.5 percentage points from 2021 [7] Group 3: Diverse Consumption Formats and Market Dynamics - Dongsheng District is positioned as a core area of the "Huhhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration," enhancing its attractiveness to surrounding cities [9] - The opening of Wanda Plaza B and the introduction of 39 brand flagship stores are expected to boost retail sales by approximately 12 percentage points [9] - The integration of commerce, tourism, culture, and sports is being deepened, with new consumer landmarks being developed to enrich the nighttime economy [9] Group 4: Economic Support and Income Growth - By 2025, the per capita disposable income of residents in Dongsheng District is projected to reach 66,310 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [11] - The per capita disposable income for urban residents is expected to be 66,747 yuan, with a growth of 3.6% [11] - Urban residents' average consumption expenditure is projected to be 47,568 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [11] Group 5: Policy Impact and Market Potential - The implementation of consumption vouchers and promotional strategies has effectively stimulated key areas of consumption, particularly in the automotive sector [15] - In 2024, the introduction of a vehicle trade-in program and subsidies has led to a 10.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales of automobiles, contributing 6.2 percentage points to overall retail growth [15] - By 2025, retail sales of automobiles are expected to reach 8.7 billion yuan, with new energy vehicles accounting for 54.8% of this figure [15] Group 6: Growth of E-commerce and New Business Models - The share of online retail has significantly increased, with retail sales through public networks rising from 390 million yuan in 2021 to 2.97 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 56.4% [19] Group 7: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," Dongsheng District aims to stabilize the consumption base, optimize the consumption environment, cultivate consumption hotspots, and stimulate consumption potential to support sustained economic development [22]

Group 1 - The province implemented a series of policies to boost consumption, including the issuance of 1 billion yuan in consumption vouchers, leading to a stable growth in social retail sales, which reached 12,786.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] - Urban and rural markets expanded, with rural consumption growing faster than urban, achieving retail sales of 2,209.48 billion yuan in rural areas, a 3.1% increase, compared to 2.2% in urban areas [1] - Upgraded consumption categories saw significant growth, with retail sales of goods reaching 10,909.34 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase, and specific categories like mobile phones and home appliances experiencing double-digit growth [1] Group 2 - The province's catering revenue reached 1,876.87 billion yuan, growing by 4.2%, while retail sales in food, tobacco, and daily necessities also saw positive growth [2] - New retail formats, such as discount stores and unmanned shops, showed rapid growth, with sales increasing by 13.6% and 13.7% respectively [2] - Online sales continued to thrive, with retail sales through public networks growing by 30.9%, indicating a strong consumer demand and a significant increase in e-commerce activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - ST Cuihua is facing significant liquidity issues and has been subjected to an investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - ST Cuihua received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation due to suspected violations of information disclosure laws, leading to a formal case being opened [1][3]. - The company is under scrutiny as it has been accused of failing to comply with the Securities Law and the Administrative Penalty Law of the People's Republic of China [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Difficulties - As of February 6, 2026, ST Cuihua and its subsidiaries had 45 bank accounts frozen due to contract disputes and overdue loans, which include 4 basic accounts and 41 general accounts [2][4]. - The company reported overdue principal loans amounting to 254 million yuan, resulting in multiple lawsuits and arbitration from financial institutions, severely impacting its operations [2][4]. Group 3: Performance Forecast - On January 31, 2026, ST Cuihua announced its 2025 annual performance forecast, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21 million to 31 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% [5]. - The company also projected a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 162 million and 242 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 154.81% to 280.64% [5].

Core Insights - In 2025, the central government implemented a series of financial policies to support the expansion of commodity consumption and optimize service consumption supply, including the issuance of 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods [1][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, reaching 50,120.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "old for new" policy expanded from 8 categories of home appliances to 12, including digital products and electric bicycles, with increased subsidy intensity [2] - In 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced under the "old for new" policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [2][4] - The sales of related products under the "old for new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Retail sales of limited above units grew by 3.4%, with significant increases in categories such as communication equipment (20.9%) and cultural office supplies (17.3%) [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a penetration rate of 53.9% [3][4] - Upgraded product categories saw accelerated demand, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 15.7% and jewelry and cosmetics reversing previous declines [3] Group 3: Industry Upgrades and Environmental Impact - The "old for new" policy not only boosted consumption but also promoted industrial upgrades and green transformation, with over 90% of replaced home appliances being high-efficiency products [4] - The recycling of scrapped vehicles increased by 24.5%, leading to significant reductions in carbon emissions [4] - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, initiated pilot projects to foster new consumption models and international consumption environments, allocating 9.6 billion yuan for the first batch of funding [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Shaanxi's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,158.799 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2.3% [1] Consumer Market Performance - Retail sales from enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year [1] - The retail sales of goods amounted to 1,031.583 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, while catering revenue reached 127.216 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [1] - Urban retail sales were 1,027.654 billion yuan, growing by 6.0%, and rural retail sales were 131.145 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] Product Category Insights - Over 60% of product categories saw retail sales growth in 2025 [2] - Automotive retail sales grew by 5.8%, with new energy vehicles seeing a significant increase of 30.6%, accounting for 53.7% of automotive sales [2] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales surged by 27.1%, while gold and jewelry sales increased by 19.2% [2] - Basic living goods showed stable growth, with food retail sales increasing by 12.4% [2] Online Sales Growth - Retail sales through public networks for enterprises above designated size grew by 22.9%, with online sales accounting for 23.0% of total retail sales [2] Private Sector Performance - Retail sales from private enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6%, contributing 5.6 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [3] - The share of private enterprise retail sales in total retail sales for enterprises above designated size rose to 58.4% [3]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shaanxi's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,158.799 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, surpassing the national average growth of 2.3% [1] - The growth in retail sales was driven by strong consumer demand and effective promotional policies, including trade-in programs [1] Retail Performance - Retail sales from above-designated enterprises increased by 7.3% compared to the previous year [1] - The retail sales of goods amounted to 1,031.583 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, while catering revenue reached 127.216 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [1] - Urban retail sales were 1,027.654 billion yuan, up 6.0%, while rural retail sales were 131.145 billion yuan, increasing by 5.5% [1] Consumer Goods Categories - Over 60% of retail categories experienced growth, with automotive goods retail sales increasing by 5.8%, significantly boosted by a 30.6% rise in new energy vehicle sales [2] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a retail sales increase of 27.1%, while gold and jewelry retail sales grew by 19.2% [2] - Basic living goods also showed stable growth, with food retail sales increasing by 12.4% [2] Online Sales Growth - Online retail sales through public networks for above-designated enterprises grew by 22.9%, with this segment accounting for 23.0% of total retail sales, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [2] Private Sector Performance - Retail sales from private enterprises in Shaanxi increased by 9.6%, contributing 5.6 percentage points to the growth of total retail sales [3] - The share of private enterprises in total retail sales reached 58.4%, up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [3]

Core Insights - Beijing's total market consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% year-on-year in 2025, with service consumption showing strong performance, increasing by 5% [1][3] - The city is focusing on innovation in business formats, expanding consumption scenarios, and upgrading quality to strengthen its foundation as an international consumption center [1][3] Service Consumption as a Core Engine - Service consumption is becoming the dominant force in Beijing's market, with a 5% year-on-year increase in service consumption [3] - The integration of online and offline channels is accelerating, with 51.9% of businesses in wholesale, retail, accommodation, and catering sectors having an online presence, up by 2.4 percentage points [3] - Online retail sales reached 581.53 billion yuan, accounting for 42.5% of total social retail sales, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [3] - Retail sales of certain upgraded and essential goods are performing well, with jewelry, cosmetics, and grain and oil products increasing by 39.5%, 12.6%, and 5.7% respectively [3] Structural Adjustments in Consumption Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Beijing decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [3][4] - The consumption market is undergoing structural adjustments influenced by changes in business models, consumer demand, and lifestyle transformations [4] Diverse Business Formats and Night Economy - The number of new flagship stores in Beijing exceeded 1,000 for the first time, reaching 1,068, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [5] - The night economy has expanded significantly, with the number of consumption points increasing from 22 in 2019 to 139 in 2025 [6] - Nighttime consumer activities are thriving, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in foot traffic during the National Day holiday [6] Quality and Fashion Leading Consumption - The cultivation of Beijing as an international consumption center is enhancing the leading role of service consumption, providing a "Beijing model" for the national market [8] - The focus on quality, style, and brand development is becoming increasingly important in the competitive market landscape [8] - Fashion consumption is expected to emerge as a significant growth point during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by innovation and cultural significance [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and transformation of Beijing's consumer market, particularly emphasizing the role of service consumption as a key driver of economic activity [1][2][10] - In 2025, Beijing's total market consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% year-on-year, with service consumption increasing by 5%, indicating a shift towards a more service-oriented economy [1][4] - The integration of online and offline retail channels is accelerating, with the penetration rate of enterprises in wholesale and retail, accommodation, and catering sectors reaching 51.9%, up by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Group 2 - The retail sales of social consumer goods in Beijing are expected to decline by 2.9% year-on-year, although the decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters, reflecting a structural adjustment in the consumption market [4] - Certain categories, such as gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and staple food, have shown positive growth, with retail sales increasing by 39.5%, 12.6%, and 5.7% respectively [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising, with retail sales of these products increasing by 13.2% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting consumption and the popularity of new models [4] Group 3 - The emergence of new retail formats and the "first store economy" is becoming a key indicator of urban commercial attractiveness, with over 1,068 new first stores opened in 2025, marking an 11.3% increase [5][8] - The night economy is expanding, with the number of night economy consumption points increasing from 22 in 2019 to 139 in 2025, indicating a growing demand for nighttime activities [8] - The integration of traditional cultural elements with modern consumption trends is evident, as seen in the rise of local brands and international brands adapting to local culture [8][12] Group 4 - The focus on quality and fashion in consumption is becoming more pronounced, with the development of a diverse range of consumer experiences that cater to high-quality and multi-faceted lifestyles [10][12] - The concept of "fashion consumption" is evolving, with expectations that it will become a significant growth point in the market, driven by innovation and cultural resonance [12][13] - The importance of fashion consumption as a commercial and social value is highlighted, indicating its potential to drive consumer trends and create substantial market value [13]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shandong province implemented a series of policies to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, effectively stimulating market vitality and optimizing consumption structure, achieving a total retail sales of consumer goods of 42,082.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Urban retail sales reached 35,220.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while rural markets showed stronger performance with retail sales of 6,861.9 billion yuan, a growth rate of 5.5%, indicating coordinated growth between urban and rural consumption [1] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 37,467.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%, while catering revenue reached 4,615.9 billion yuan, up by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Essential Goods - Basic living goods continued to play a stabilizing role, with retail sales of grain and oil, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, and daily necessities increasing by 10.0%, 12.6%, 12.9%, and 17.4% respectively, collectively accounting for 22.2% of retail sales above the designated size, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall retail sales growth [1] Group 3: Upgrading Consumption - The sales of upgraded consumer goods showed positive trends, with retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cultural and office supplies increasing by 9.6%, 12.4%, and 22.8% respectively, together contributing 0.6 percentage points to retail sales growth, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 4: Replacement Goods - Retail sales of communication equipment surged by 29.8%, while home appliances and audio-visual equipment, and furniture grew by 12.0% and 12.9% respectively, with new energy vehicle sales also increasing by 8.7%, collectively driving a 2.9 percentage point increase in retail sales above the designated size [1]