12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史 新高。 纽约期货市场的COMEX铜价已经从2025年初的每磅4.06美元到现在创纪录的每磅5.4美元，上涨超过30%。而且纽约期货市场还在以每吨超过400美元的溢 价，从伦敦和上海吸纳库存。 中国每年消费全球一半以上的铜。作为广泛应用于电力、机械、新能源等领域的重要工业原材料，铜价为什么会一路狂飙？ 铜作为标准化大宗商品，与金银相似，都是在伦敦、纽约、上海三大交易中心完成期货与现货的交易。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）是全球铜定价的核心，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）是全球铜期货交易最活跃的市场，上海背靠最大的铜消费市场——中国，重 要性在日益增加。 正常情况下，铜的EFP机制（Exchange for Physical，将伦敦现货运到纽约进行期货交割）能保证伦敦铜和纽约铜的价格挂钩，两边的价差仅为数美元至数 十美元。但今年纽约期货市场出现异常，大量资金持续购买交割COMEX铜期货，造成COMEX铜出现"超级溢价"，从伦敦和上海源源不断地抽调库存。 COMEX铜库存已经暴 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 多因素共振支撑铜价上行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 4 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内偏强，全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后， 计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏紧预期将有缓 解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12 月铜国 内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼厂依靠副产品 及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万 吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买兴下降， 铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的减少。LME 铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，提振铜乐观预期，且美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万 人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，降息预期再度增长，美元下挫，支撑金属价格上涨， 且前期国内产业端反内卷呼声影响冶炼端后续产量的增减情况，铜价再度上涨。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备 ...

专题：光大期货热点追踪视频合集 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1204热点追踪：铜价大涨，到底谁在"抢铜"？ 1204热点追踪：铜价大涨，到底谁在"抢铜"？ 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 专题：光大期货热点追踪视频合集 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tensions, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) H-shares, citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt as supporting factors [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while the target price for Luoyang Molybdenum has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] Group 2 - Despite a positive outlook on copper, Morgan Stanley has downgraded Jiangxi Copper (00358) H-shares to "underweight," with the target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth [1] - The firm believes Zijin Mining is relatively well-valued compared to its peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tensions, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - Strong demand, severe supply disruptions, and reduced smelting capacity in China are driving the positive outlook for copper prices [1] - The expectation is that copper will continue to outperform the market next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] - Zijin Mining is preferred due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] Group 3: Jiangxi Copper Rating - Despite a positive outlook for copper, Morgan Stanley has a "Underweight" rating on Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358), citing ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth [1] - The target price for Jiangxi Copper has been increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

Group 1 - Copper futures continue to show strong performance, reaching historical highs with international copper futures at 82,280.00 yuan/ton, up 3.21%, and Shanghai copper futures at 91,300.00 yuan/ton, up 2.62% [1] - Bridge Copper has established direct partnerships with copper mines in Chile and Arizona, securing a supply capability of 50,000 tons of copper concentrate and A-grade cathode copper per month, addressing the growing copper shortage [2] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) plans to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% by 2026 to improve the supply-demand structure, which may significantly impact refined copper supply [2] Group 2 - Ivanhoe Mines expects its Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo to produce between 380,000 and 420,000 tons of copper in 2026, with further increases to 500,000 to 540,000 tons in 2027 [2] - Dongwu Futures indicates that favorable macroeconomic conditions and expectations of reduced supply are reinforcing the logic for rising copper prices, with attention needed on future Federal Reserve policies and domestic industry policies [2] - Guoxin Futures notes that the imbalance in regional copper inventory distribution remains unresolved, which will continue to provide upward momentum for copper prices, although caution is advised regarding short-term price corrections [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that copper prices have surged past $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market expectations, with a positive outlook for the copper market in the coming year [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic stance on copper prices and related stocks, citing strong demand, severe supply interruptions, and reduced smelting capacity in China as key factors [1] - The report highlights that Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. are rated "overweight" due to strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt, with target prices set at HKD 42 and HKD 22 respectively [1] Group 2 - The report identifies Zijin Mining as the preferred choice due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. is rated "underweight" due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth, with its target price raised from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tension, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Strong demand and severe supply disruptions, along with reduced smelting capacity in China, are driving the optimistic outlook for copper prices [1] - The expectation is that copper prices will continue to outperform the market next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Co., citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] - The firm prefers Zijin Mining due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] Group 3: Other Company Ratings - Jiangxi Copper Co. has been given a "Underweight" rating due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth, with its target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper sector in Hong Kong stocks has shown strong performance, driven by record-high copper prices and positive outlooks from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, Hong Kong copper stocks collectively surged, with Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 6%, while Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by over 4% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that is expected to support upward momentum [1] - The report forecasts zero growth in global mine supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% by 2026, increasing the downside risk for global electrolytic copper supply and tightening market conditions [1] Group 3: Company Projections - JPMorgan identifies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum as top picks due to strong profit growth and diversified asset portfolios [1] - The expected refined copper market deficit is approximately 330,000 tons by 2026, with Zijin and Luoyang Molybdenum's profits projected to grow by 30% and 17% respectively, primarily driven by increased copper production [1] - Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is anticipated at 10%, maintaining a relatively low allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to supply tightening concerns, with the main contract increasing by approximately 2% and international copper rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The night trading session for copper in Shanghai saw a strong performance, breaking previous high points [1] - The main contract is currently experiencing a price increase of around 2% [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Concerns over tightening supply have driven copper prices to new highs, leading to fluctuations within a high price range [1] - The LME copper cancellation warrants surged from 6,300 tons to 56,875 tons, indicating a significant increase [1] - Registered warrants have dropped by over 50,000 tons, marking the lowest level since late July of this year, raising concerns about potential future inventory declines [1]