钛媒体App 1月31日消息，1月30日晚间，包括黄金、原油等多只大宗商品类LOF公告大额限购，个别产 品申购上限甚至低至单日2元。有业内人士分析称，市场大跌时，相关基金可能因其主题或策略成为焦 点，涌入大量短期抄底或投机资金，而相关基金底层资产投入的是额度有限的QDII产品，难以新增投 资。若资金持续涌入，超出额度的资金只能闲置为现金，导致基金净值偏离指数，损害投资者利益。 对于1月30日的黄金白银股高位重挫，有公募基金分析称，考虑到目前市场已明显过热的情况下，短期 市场博弈将比较激烈，波动率将边际放大，需要警惕短期价格大幅回调风险。但随着避险需求抬升，在 全球战略资产储备需求升温及结构性供需缺口长期存在的背景下，相关有色金属中长期上涨潜力依旧。 （券商中国） ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged over 25% since the beginning of the year, reaching a record high of $91.551 per ounce, making it the second-largest asset globally with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Silver's price increase began in 2025, with a significant rise from a low range of $28-$32 per ounce at the start of last year, accelerating in the fourth quarter to surpass key price levels of $70, $75, and $80, ultimately reaching a peak of $83.971 per ounce by December 29, 2025 [3]. - The maximum increase in silver prices for 2025 was 196.84%, outperforming gold and becoming a focal point in capital markets [3]. - Currently, silver's market capitalization stands at $5.045 trillion, surpassing major companies like Google and Apple, while gold remains the largest asset at $32.251 trillion [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Price Increase - The ongoing strength in silver prices is attributed to a combination of industrial demand growth and financial attributes, moving beyond traditional monetary and safe-haven characteristics [4]. - Key sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI hardware are driving increased consumption of silver, creating a structural supply-demand gap [4]. - The expectation of continued global liquidity easing and the current gold-silver ratio being above historical averages provide further support for silver's valuation recovery [4]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Market attention is now shifting towards the $100 per ounce mark, with Citigroup predicting that silver will reach this level within the next three months [5]. - Analysts suggest that the bullish market conditions are likely to persist, contingent on geopolitical tensions easing and reduced hedging demand for precious metals later in the year [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual accumulation and diversification, avoiding high-risk positions and instead using a dollar-cost averaging approach [8]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract in February 2026 to meet the growing demand from retail investors [8].

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a strategy of buying on dips, with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be relatively loose in supply and demand at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - Zinc prices may be difficult to fall deeply in the short - term, with suggestions to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. - Nickel presents a weak short - term fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week, and caution is required due to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [19]. - Lithium carbonate shows a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, the LME cash - 3m spread soared due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices exceeded $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap, and inventory distribution is uneven globally. In China, consumption slowed down due to high prices, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. After the FOMC meeting in December, attention should be paid to whether the US dollar index rebounds, and the price is expected to range between $10,800 - $12,000 [1]. Aluminum - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. Demand at the end of the year is good. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply from domestic and imported mines is tightening, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US imports have increased. With the opening of the export window, domestic social inventory has decreased, and the premium has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills maintained high production. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. Nickel and chromium prices were stable. Inventory remained high. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Lead - Lead prices rebounded this week. Primary lead production remained high, while concentrate production declined seasonally. Secondary lead production increased. Battery demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. Tin - Tin prices were driven up by the non - ferrous metals sector. The processing fee for tin ore remained low. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices have stimulated inventory exports. Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs. Short - term fundamentals are good, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. It can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated weakly this week. Terminal procurement was average. Southwest producers cut production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production. In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market declined significantly this week due to the resumption of production in Jiangxi and Ningde and the expectation of a power - consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. The opening of upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21].

Market Overview - US stock market showed downward performance with all three major indices recording losses as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, leading to a lack of direction in the market [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the index facing resistance at 26,000 points and closing lower, while overall trading volume slightly increased [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5% due to positive signals from the political bureau meeting and better-than-expected export performance, contributing to a favorable market atmosphere [2] Industry Insights - International copper prices have reached new highs, with an increase of over 20% year-to-date, driven by tight mineral supply, strong demand from the renewable energy and data center sectors, and favorable macroeconomic conditions [3] - Analysts expect copper prices to range between $12,000 and $13,000 per ton next year, supported by a structural supply-demand gap [3] - A report predicts zero growth in global mining supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026, further tightening the market [3] - China's recent decision to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% for 2026 increases the downward risk for global electrolytic copper supply, exacerbating market tightness [3] - Despite high prices, Chinese copper demand has slowed, but downstream buyers continue to purchase based on need, indicating ongoing market activity [3] - A projected shortfall of approximately 330,000 tons in the global refined copper market by 2026 is expected to benefit copper prices and profitability in the copper industry [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Hong Kong copper stocks driven by record-high LME copper prices, which reached $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight LME registered warehouse supplies [1] - Major copper stocks such as China Molybdenum and Zijin Mining saw increases of up to 6%, while Jiangxi Copper and China Nonferrous Mining rose over 4% [1] - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap supporting upward trends, with Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum being preferred choices due to profit growth and diversified asset layouts [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates zero growth in global mining supply by 2025, with a slight recovery of only 1.4% in 2026 [1] - The Chinese copper raw material negotiation group has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% in 2026, increasing supply downside risks [1] - Although Chinese copper demand is expected to slow due to high prices, downstream procurement will continue based on demand [1] - A projected global refined copper deficit of approximately 330,000 tons is expected in 2026, with Zijin and China Molybdenum's profits expected to grow by 30% and 17% respectively, while Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is forecasted at 10% [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper sector in Hong Kong stocks has shown strong performance, driven by record-high copper prices and positive outlooks from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, Hong Kong copper stocks collectively surged, with Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 6%, while Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by over 4% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that is expected to support upward momentum [1] - The report forecasts zero growth in global mine supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% by 2026, increasing the downside risk for global electrolytic copper supply and tightening market conditions [1] Group 3: Company Projections - JPMorgan identifies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum as top picks due to strong profit growth and diversified asset portfolios [1] - The expected refined copper market deficit is approximately 330,000 tons by 2026, with Zijin and Luoyang Molybdenum's profits projected to grow by 30% and 17% respectively, primarily driven by increased copper production [1] - Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is anticipated at 10%, maintaining a relatively low allocation [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that will continue to support upward momentum [1] - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are preferred stocks as they benefit from strong profit growth and diversified asset portfolios [1]