Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 2025/12/04 220 4473 115035 32139 -1611.35 -281.23 38.0 48.0 50.44 162825 64325 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 63850 2025/12/08 145 3804 115035 29956 -857.49 -131.15 40.0 46.0 8.19 164550 63175 ...

国际铜价近日连续再创新高，年内涨幅超过两成，市场普遍预期铜价将继续上涨。铜价上升动力来自矿 产供应紧张、新能源及数据中心等行业需求强劲，以及宏观环境的有利条件，机构普遍预期明年铜价将 在每吨1.2万美元至1.3万美元区间内运行。铜价和铜业股，因结构性供需缺口将持续支撑上行势头。投 行报告预计2025年全球矿山供给零增长，2026年仅温和回升1.4%。此外，中国铜原料联合谈判小组近 期决定将2026年铜矿产能利用率削减逾10%，将进一步加大全球电解铜供应下行风险，加剧市场趋紧格 局。中国铜需求近期因高价等因素趋缓，但下游买家并未停购，只是改为按需采购。预计2026年全球精 炼铜市场缺口约33万吨，预计有利铜价及铜业股盈利增长，前景值得看好。 海湾家族办公室业务发展总监 郭家耀 CFA 日期：2025年12月9日 星期二 (笔者为证监会持牌人士，本人及相关人士没有持有上述股份) 港股走势及分析 美股周一表现向下，市场观望美联储议息结果，大市缺乏方向，三大指数均录得跌幅收市。美元反复企 稳，美国十年期债息回升至4.16厘水平，金价先升后回，油价则表现受压。港股预托证券大致企稳，预 料大市早段变动不大。内地股市昨日上 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12 月 4 日港股铜概念股集体走强，受 LME 铜价创新高影响】12 月 4 日，港股铜概念股集体走强。 五矿资源、洛阳钼业一度涨 6%，紫金矿业、江西铜业股份、中国有色矿业一度涨超 4%。 消息显示， 伦敦金属交易所铜价周三每吨一度触及 11540 美元，创历史新高，受美元走软、供应忧虑和 LME 注册 仓库供应紧张影响。 摩根大通表示仍看好铜价和铜业股，因结构性供需缺口支撑上行。紫金矿业与洛 阳钼业为首选，受益于盈利增长和资产布局多元化。 摩通报告预计，2025 年全球矿山供给零增长， 2026 年仅回升 1.4%。中国铜原料联合谈判小组决定削减 2026 年铜矿产能利用率超 10%，加大供应下 行风险。 摩通指出，中国铜需求因高价趋缓，但下游按需采购。预计 2026 年全球精炼铜缺口约 33 万 吨，紫金、洛钼盈利分别增长 30%及 17%，江西铜业盈利增速 10%，维持相对低配。 下游按需采购。预计 2026 年全球精炼铜缺口约 33 万吨,紫金、洛钼盈利分别增长 30%及 17%,江西 铜业盈利增速10%,维持相对低配。 本文由 Al ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper sector in Hong Kong stocks has shown strong performance, driven by record-high copper prices and positive outlooks from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, Hong Kong copper stocks collectively surged, with Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 6%, while Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by over 4% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that is expected to support upward momentum [1] - The report forecasts zero growth in global mine supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% by 2026, increasing the downside risk for global electrolytic copper supply and tightening market conditions [1] Group 3: Company Projections - JPMorgan identifies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum as top picks due to strong profit growth and diversified asset portfolios [1] - The expected refined copper market deficit is approximately 330,000 tons by 2026, with Zijin and Luoyang Molybdenum's profits projected to grow by 30% and 17% respectively, primarily driven by increased copper production [1] - Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is anticipated at 10%, maintaining a relatively low allocation [1]

格隆汇12月4日｜摩根大通称，仍然看好铜价和铜业股，因结构性供需缺口将持续支撑上行势头。其 中，紫金矿业与洛阳钼业为首选标的，因受益于强劲盈利增长和多元化资产布局。 ...