国际方面，全球铜矿供应的"长期缺口"已从预期转为现实，智利Codelco2025年产量预计同比下降3%， 老旧矿山品位下滑、投资不足导致产能增长停滞；印尼出台精矿出口限制政策，非洲铜矿项目因政局动 荡开发滞后，全球铜矿新增产能增速不足2%，远低于需求增速。而Codelco对欧美买家的长单升水飙 升，进一步凸显全球铜矿"卖方市场"格局。 此外，美联储12月降息预期升温，且特朗普阵营的哈塞特大概率当选新一任美联储主席，这也将提升特 朗普政府对白宫的控制力，增强市场对2026年美联储流动性宽松的预期，也有利于铜价的上涨。 国内方面，中国有色金属工业协会明确表示，已叫停约200万吨铜冶炼违规产能，CSPT成员企业达 成"2026年减产10%"共识。更关键的是，铜精矿加工费已跌至低于冶炼成本线，导致国内冶炼企业扩产 意愿低迷，矿端紧缺正加速向精铜端传导。 LME数据显示，其注册仓单大幅转为注销仓单，库存降至数月低位，而COMEX库存则持续累积，这种 区域性的库存分化(LME紧张、COMEX宽松)背后，是跨市场套利交易的活跃，进一步印证了全球范围 内可供自由流动的现货铜并不宽裕。期货行业资深人士称，下游企业担心本地无货可 ...

花旗银行预计，铜价将持续攀升至明年初，第二季度均价约为13000美元/吨，并将乐观情境下的目标价 从14000美元/吨上调至15000美元/吨。 银河证券表示，全球铜矿供应短缺与全球区域性精铜供应失衡风险加剧的逻辑演绎，叠加流动性的宽松 预期，有望持续推动铜价上涨，建议关注国内铜矿龙头公司。今年以来主力铜矿扰动频发，导致2025年 全球铜矿产量预期持续下调，由年初预期的70多万的增量下降至目前的全年几乎没有增量；而2026年的 全球铜矿增量也仅有50多万吨。在国内外均有大量在建/拟建冶炼产能待释放的情况下，预计2026年全 球铜矿缺口或将进一步扩大。 中信建投（601066）建议，三大金属投资应聚焦两大逻辑：资源掌控力：优先布局紫金矿业（601899） (铜金双龙头)、洛阳钼业（603993）(全球钴铜巨头)等拥有核心矿权的企业；技术溢价：重点关注南山 铝业（600219）(航空级铝材)、恒邦股份（002237）(贵金属回收)等具备深加工能力的标的。 相关概念股： 2025年末，铜市迎来狂飙行情。过去一周内，伦敦金属交易所(LME)与上海期货交易所的铜期货价格连 续三次刷新历史纪录，国内沪铜主力合约价格更是强 ...

Core Insights - Chile, the world's largest copper producer, experienced a 4.5% year-on-year decline in copper production in September due to mine operational disruptions and declining ore grades [1] Group 1: Production Challenges - The production recovery from August, following a fatal collapse at Codelco's largest mine, remains below last year's levels [1] - Several domestic mines underperformed, exacerbating the supply shortage that drove copper prices to new highs this week [1] Group 2: Specific Mine Issues - Codelco's El Teniente mine has been operating at low capacity since a deadly accident in late July that resulted in six fatalities [1] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca mine is facing tailings management challenges [1] - The nearby Collahuasi mine is extracting from low-grade ore zones, with production losses exceeding expectations [1] Group 3: Global Production Impact - The world's largest copper mine, Escondida, saw a slight increase in production, which only partially offset the reductions from other mines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai reached a new high in October, driven by both commodity and financial attributes, with supply disruptions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts playing significant roles [1][2][3] Supply Side Summary - Major copper mines like Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, shifting global copper supply from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) hit a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton as of October 25, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite lower TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential declines in by-product prices could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Side Summary - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has somewhat suppressed downstream demand, but the market's negative feedback has been relatively mild compared to previous price surges [2] - The acceptance of high copper prices by downstream markets is increasing as supply tightness becomes a consensus [2][3] Macro Factors Summary - The macroeconomic focus is on U.S.-China tariffs and overseas interest rate cuts, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are seen as a primary driver for rising copper prices [2] - The COMEX copper market has maintained a high premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of interest rate cuts support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [3] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth, while the market's increasing acceptance of high copper prices offers solid support for the price midpoint in the medium to long term [3]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread increases on September 25, with major contracts such as shipping European routes, international copper, and glass rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1468.33 points, up 13.64 points or 0.94% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping European route continued its upward trend, with the main contract closing up 3.99%, driven by good cargo collection and stable current cabin quotes [2] Group 2 - International copper and Shanghai copper futures opened higher, reaching a six-month high, with respective increases of 3.58% and 3.40% due to supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine [3] - The suspension of operations at Grasberg is expected to tighten global copper supply further, with forecasts indicating a continued decline in supply growth through 2026 [3] - Other commodities such as glass, rapeseed oil, and coke also saw significant price increases, with glass futures closing up 3.08% [3] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced slight adjustments, with Shanghai gold down 0.45% while silver saw a minor increase, influenced by profit-taking and a lack of new stimuli [4] - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain, including rising U.S. debt and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term fluctuations [4] - Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber contracts saw slight declines, with limited impact from weather disturbances, as the Southeast Asian production season is expected to increase output [5]