Consumer Credit Concerns - Credit scores are falling at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis [2] - 90-day plus delinquency rates for credit cards are north of 12%, the highest in 14 years, with an average rate of about 215% and $12 trillion [2] - CarMax reported increased loan loss reserves due to subprime customers (FICO scores under 550) having the most trouble [9] - A significant portion of thericcolor bankruptcy borrowers had no credit scores or scores around 600, highlighting concerns about lower-quality consumers [10] Market and Bank Performance - Despite consumer credit concerns, the market (HYG) has remained resilient [3] - Banks experienced pressure, possibly due to rebalancing or concerns about access to credit [4] - American Express, expected to perform well due to its higher-end demographic, was surprisingly hard hit [13][14] - Mastercard and Visa held up relatively well [14] - JP Morgan and Capital One earnings will provide insights into different customer segments [12][15] Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) - BNPL options are prevalent for online purchases, potentially unique to this cycle [5] - Affirm (a firm) experienced a post-IPO pop but quickly broke price, indicating potential investor concerns [5][6] - The lower-end consumer is particularly relevant to the BNPL sector [8][9] Economic Outlook - The push and pull between the Fed's dual mandate (full employment and stable prices) continues [7] - PCE data was "sticky," and the upcoming jobs number may shift focus to the lower-end consumer [7][8] - The economy is perceived as "doing okay," with a good employment picture, though a government shutdown could cause disruption [12]

For more on the results, Naveen Jagi joins us now in exclusive interview. He is JLL's president of retail advisory services. Um, great to have you with us.Um, you heard our conversation about the concern about credit etc. What are you seeing in terms of consumer behavior. Does it reflect any of these worries. >> I think in many ways it does.We've done a survey for over a thousand consumers and this quite telling and that tells us that for the overall broad consumer, they're pulling back. They're spending le ...

Consumer spending is a crucial part of the US economy, accounting for about twothirds of its growth. But with inflation still running sticky, can spending power hold up. The latest data appears to be yet another testament to the sheer resilience of the US consumer.However, the solid gains are masking a deepening inequality among US households where a small share of high-wealth Americans is seeing continued gains while a larger share of the middle and lower income households is experiencing increased strain. ...

Cost-conscious Americans are spending carefully on groceries. Splurging on fancier, fattier butter is an exception https://t.co/jxpBANMckL ...

Welcome back. As we continue to monitor uncertainty around tariffs, inflation, the labor market, how's the consumer holding up. Here to discuss is Mastercard Economic Institute's chief economist, Michelle Meyer.Recently releasing a forecast for the holiday season, expecting retail sales to grow by 3.6%. Welcome. It's good to have you.>> Thank you. Good to be here. >> So, how does that compare 3.6%.What does it say about where we are in consumer spending. >> It's pretty a solid growth rate. Um, and actually ...

Consumer Spending Outlook - The Mastercard Economic Institute forecasts a 3.6% growth in retail sales for the holiday season, which is consistent with spending trends observed over the summer months [1][2] - Last year's holiday spending growth was 4.1%, driven by high volumes and disinflation in many categories, while this year presents more pricing challenges for consumers [3][5] E-commerce vs. In-store Spending - E-commerce retail spending is expected to grow by 7.9%, significantly outpacing the just over 2% growth for in-store shopping, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [6][7] Consumer Demographics and Spending Power - Spending is increasingly driven by high-end consumers, supported by wealth gains in markets and real estate, which have created a positive wealth effect for upper-income households [8][9] - The overall household balance sheets are in good shape, with serious delinquency rates trending slightly lower, suggesting consumers are well-equipped to manage spending this season [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Job creation has slowed, but the labor market remains balanced with low firing rates, contributing to a steady unemployment rate [14] - The impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on the job market is a topic of debate, with potential structural changes expected rather than cyclical dynamics [15][16]

LOGIN BY Associated Press Listen to this ArticleMore info 0:00 / 0:00 The Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge accelerated slightly in August from a year earlier. The Commerce Department reported Friday that its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was up 2.7% in August from a year earlier, a tick higher from a 2.6% year-over-year increase in July and the most since February. Prices rose 0.3% from July, compared to a 0.2% increase the month before. Core prices rose 0.2%, the same as ...

Getty Images Consumer sentiment declined in September for most groups, except for holders of big stock portfolios, according to the University of Michigan. Key Takeaways The University of Michigan's widely followed index of consumer sentiment declined in September amid worries about a weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. The survey showed sentiment declined across groups, with one notable exception: holders of big stock portfolios. Worries about the job market and stubborn inflation have m ...

But is the data reflecting the inflationary impact of tariffs. Let's discuss with Joe Leavourne, counselor to Treasury Secretary uh Bessant and here on set with me. It's great to see you, Joe. >> Great to be here.Thank you. >> All right, so inflation data that we got this morning. Core PCE basically in line with the month prior and actually we saw the month before that revised lower as well.What is that telling us. >> Actually, I like to look at the goods piece because that's where the tariffs would show up ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: US consumer spending rose 0.4% in August despite core inflation holding at 2.9%. https://t.co/32F3nQde0S ...