Core Viewpoint - AI, initially seen as a strong investment theme for the year, has shifted to a source of market uncertainty, particularly impacting light-asset companies that may be replaced by AI technology [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index experienced its worst performance since November until a rebound occurred following mild inflation data on Friday [1]. - The utility sector outperformed as a safe haven against AI impacts, while the financial sector was the worst performer of the week [2]. - Wall Street's previously confident bets have failed over six weeks, with cash allocations at a historic low and hedge levels at their lowest since 2018 [3]. Group 2: AI Impact and Investor Sentiment - Investors are questioning the return timelines on large capital expenditures by tech giants and whether remaining cash can continue to support stock buybacks [4]. - The sentiment is that more stocks have been harmed by AI than benefited, leading to concerns about potential contagion effects across sectors [4]. - The market is undergoing a repricing, particularly in the software industry, raising fears of broader impacts [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility - Two forces are exacerbating volatility in the U.S. stock market: low cash allocations and interconnected leveraged positions that can trigger widespread sell-offs [5]. - The VIX index recently surpassed the critical 20 mark, indicating rising market pressure despite not showing panic signals [6]. - The put-call ratio has surged since January, reflecting increased hedging activity among investors [9][10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Despite current volatility, the S&P 500 remains near historical highs, and credit spreads are at ten-year lows, indicating that a market collapse has not yet occurred [9]. - There has been a significant inflow of $3.6 billion into ETFs tracking high shareholder return companies this month, suggesting a shift in investment focus [10].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：东吴财经通） 一周视点 本周指数持续窄幅震荡，两市成交金额周三及周五萎缩至2万亿之下。利好催化下的AI安全、影视院 线、算力租赁等领涨，小金属概念趋势上行，白酒等传统消费较为弱势。全周上证综指+0.41%，创业 板指数+1.22%；沪深300+0.36%。 附图1：沪深300一周走势一览 本周上证综指持续4050-4150点箱体上沿窄幅震荡，但周五缩量跌破箱体中轨4100点及短期均线支撑， 短期4100点构成压制，节后大概率维持再度考验箱体下轨即4050点支撑，日MACD绿柱线再度放大显示 做空动能释放中。科技权重股对双创指数影响较大，周内表现较上证综指略强。 附图2：上证综指技术分析 下周展望 一、消息面解读： 1、2月12日，国家发展改革委、金融监管总局、中国民航局对外发布了《关于推动低空保险高质量发展 的实施意见》。（智通财经） 投顾观点：意见指出，到2027年无人驾驶航空器责任保险强制投保制度初步建立，低空保险产品不断丰 富，更好满足各类应用场景保障需求；到2030年低空保险政策框架基本形成，对低空经济安全健康发展 的保障作用持续增强。国金证券称，低空经济是地方扩表的优选方向， ...

来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】2月14日，据外媒businessinsider报道，近日，Meta官方明确表态，今年不会启 动新一轮基于绩效的裁员，不会像去年那样淘汰公司底层5%的低绩效员工，这一消息打破了此前网络 上关于该社交巨头将悄悄重启绩效裁员的猜测，标志着其人力策略出现明显转向。 针对近期公司业务重组引发的外界关注，Meta发言人在接受媒体采访时回应称，近期的人员调整均为 个别案例，与公司层面的整体举措无关，并明确强调："我们不会像去年那样，针对底层5%的低绩效员 工开展裁员行动"。 这一态度与2025年初形成鲜明反差。据悉，2025年初《商业内幕》曾曝光Meta内部常见问题解答文 件，其中显示，基于绩效的裁员可能成为公司年度常规操作，当时Meta明确表示"可能利用未来的绩效 周期，淘汰底层低绩效员工"。随后在2025年初，Meta如期启动裁员，淘汰了公司5%的员工，当时官方 称此举是为了聚焦核心业务，优化人员结构。 值得注意的是，就在上个月，Meta刚刚对旗下负责元宇宙业务的Reality Labs部门进行裁员，削减了该 部门约10%的员工，波及人数超1000人。据悉，此次部门裁员是Meta战 ...

经济观察网根据2026年2月13日的交易数据，铜冠铜箔（301217）(301217.SZ)收盘价为39.26元，当日上 涨6.22%，盘中最高触及41.05元，突破了60日移动平均线(32.949元)。股价的短期强势主要受AI服务器 对高端铜箔(HVLP)需求激增的行业基本面驱动。 行业政策与环境 AI算力需求爆发带动高频高速铜箔(HVLP)供需格局趋紧。铜冠铜箔的HVLP铜箔产量占PCB铜箔总产量 比例已突破30%，且公司正将部分锂电箔产能转产HVLP以应对订单需求。日本半导体材料厂商Resonac 于2026年3月起调涨铜箔基板售价30%以上，进一步强化高端材料涨价预期。从产能看，公司2026年AI 铜箔产能预计突破3万吨，HVLP-4产品作为国内唯一进入海外供应链的型号，稀缺性显著。 资金面与技术面 行业与风险分析 估值方面，市盈率(TTM)达4821.95倍，处于高位；客户集中度较高(前五大客户营收占比66.89%)及原材 料铜价波动可能影响利润稳定性。此外，板块整体表现偏弱(2月13日电力设备板块下跌2.03%)，若市场 情绪降温，可能加剧股价波动。 未来发展 短期股价突破受行业景气度支撑，但资金 ...

Market Overview - The last trading day before the Spring Festival on February 13 saw a significant decline in trading volume, dropping below 2 trillion yuan, with 3,829 stocks closing lower [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.26% to 4,082.07 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.57% to 3,275.96 points [4] Sector Performance - Resource and technology stocks led the decline, with significant drops in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals, all falling over 3% [8] - Natural gas, gold concepts, and rare earth permanent magnets were among the hardest-hit resource stocks [5][8] Trading Dynamics - The market exhibited typical defensive adjustment characteristics, with increased caution among investors as they prepared for the holiday [3][12] - The trading volume decreased significantly, with only three stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in daily trading volume [5][11] Investment Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market is currently in a phase of stock selection and defensive positioning, with a focus on technology growth and policy-supported sectors [11][14] - There is an expectation for increased market activity post-holiday, contingent on external market conditions remaining stable [3][13] Future Outlook - Historical data suggests that the A-share market tends to perform better after the Spring Festival, with potential for upward movement if trading volume rebounds [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include technology, AI, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from ongoing trends and policy support [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index will undergo changes, increasing its constituent stocks from 88 to 90, with the inclusion of Ningde Times, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Laopu Gold, while Zhongsheng Holdings will be removed. This change will take effect on March 9, 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Index Changes - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 88 to 90, adding Ningde Times (03750.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), and Laopu Gold (06181.HK), while removing Zhongsheng Holdings [1][6]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 stocks, adding Beike (02423.HK) and Horizon Robotics (09660.HK), while removing China Resources Beer (00291.HK) and Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [2][7]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will increase from 507 to 532 stocks, removing 28 stocks and adding 53 new ones, including East Asia Bank, Rusal, and JD Industrial [2][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly with major stocks like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba experiencing significant declines, institutional and investor expectations for the market remain high, with continued investments in related ETFs [1][6]. - Recent liquidity shocks have affected the technology sector, but the fundamental outlook remains unchanged, suggesting a potential rebound as the market stabilizes [3][8]. - The consumer sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from improving economic conditions, with traditional industries undergoing transformation and leading to potential valuation recovery [5][9].

Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17% to $5050.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.98% to $77.180 per ounce [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. Notably, major tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia fell over 2% [3] Domestic Metal Market - The domestic metal market experienced a general decline before the Spring Festival, with significant drops in prices for tin and silver. Specifically, Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.61% to 1110.10 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures dropped by 5.52% to 19782 yuan per kilogram [4][6] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to weakened market sentiment and risk appetite, exacerbated by a significant drop in U.S. stocks [6] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. This data alleviated concerns about a deteriorating job market and reduced the perceived necessity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the short term [7] - However, the total projected job growth for 2025 was revised down by 898,000, indicating that one month's data may not be sufficient to determine a trend reversal in the job market [7] Gold and Silver Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets are currently in a "rebalancing" phase, with prices expected to remain volatile in the short term. However, long-term factors such as high global debt and geopolitical tensions are likely to support upward price movements for gold and silver [8] - The upcoming U.S. PCE and GDP data during the holiday period are anticipated to significantly influence market pricing for U.S. economic conditions and inflation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [10][11] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of mobile games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the online gaming business generated 21.3 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 3 percentage points [10][11] - The total operating expense ratio was 34%, with a sales expense ratio of 14%, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [11] Game Development and AI Impact - The company is focusing on integrating AI tools to enhance creative content, with a shift in the core barriers to entry for commercial games towards integration capabilities [3][18] - Upcoming game releases include "遗忘之海" and "无限大," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [23] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.6 billion, 44.7 billion, and 48 billion yuan respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 5%, 4%, and 0% [23][28]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a defensive adjustment ahead of the holiday, with increased capital speculation, indicating preparation for new capital inflows post-holiday [2][11][13] - Major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26% at 4082.07 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.57% at 3275.96 points, reflecting a general downward trend [4] Sector Performance - Resource and technology stocks led the decline, with significant drops in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and oil and petrochemicals, all falling over 3% [5][8] - Conversely, sectors like aerospace equipment and film and animation showed positive performance, indicating sector-specific resilience [5] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume decreased significantly, with a total daily turnover of 161.9 billion yuan, marking a drop below 2 trillion yuan across the three major markets [4][7] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable retreat of leveraged funds as investors seek to avoid risks associated with the long holiday [12][13] Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly AI and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from global capital expenditure expansion and domestic infrastructure investments [16][17] - There is a recommendation to adopt a balanced investment strategy, combining offensive positions in technology with defensive assets like high-dividend stocks to mitigate volatility [17]

Group 1 - Tencent has launched a voice input feature for its WeChat desktop application, compatible with both Windows and macOS, available in version 4.1.7 and above [3] - ByteDance is in talks to sell its gaming subsidiary, Mu Tong Technology, to Saudi Savvy Games Group, with the deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion, potentially closing this quarter [5] - Anta Sports has received written approval from shareholders for the acquisition of a 29.06% stake in Puma, with the transaction progressing as planned [7] Group 2 - The AI-driven short drama production costs only 25% of traditional live-action dramas, with a significant increase in popularity as indicated by a rise in "top 100 rate" from 7% to 38% [7] - Microsoft executives predict that most white-collar jobs could be fully automated within the next 12 to 18 months, raising concerns about job displacement due to AI [13] - Xiaomi has completed the delivery of the last unit of its first-generation SU7, with plans for the next generation to be launched in April [13] Group 3 - PayPay, a subsidiary of SoftBank, has officially submitted its IPO application in the U.S., reporting a profit of 103.3 billion yen and revenue of 278.5 billion yen for the nine months ending December 31 [18] - Stark Defence, a German drone manufacturing startup, has achieved a valuation exceeding 1 billion euros following a recent funding round [18] - Didero, an industrial AI startup, has raised $30 million in Series A funding to enhance global supply chain procurement processes [18]