Core Viewpoint - Thailand's Finance Minister has indicated that the economy is expected to stagnate, with growth projected to barely exceed 1% this year [1] Economic Outlook - The Thai economy is facing challenges that may lead to stagnation, with growth estimates being revised downwards [1] - The anticipated growth rate for this year is just above 1%, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic changes in Trump's tariff policy towards China, with tariffs fluctuating from 34% to 125% and then down to 10% after negotiations, indicating a volatile trade environment [1][3] - The market has shown resilience, recovering losses incurred after the initial tariff announcements, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not be as severe as initially feared [1][3] - The article highlights the necessity for the U.S. to lower tariffs to avoid significant economic and inflationary pressures, as high tariffs are unsustainable for both the U.S. and China [3][5] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on U.S. inflation, potentially raising the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1 percentage point, although factors like low oil prices and inventory replenishment may delay this effect until late Q3 [25][32] - The article outlines that U.S. inventory levels have increased significantly, with a 20% rise in import amounts and a 2.4% increase in nominal inventory compared to the previous year, indicating a robust supply chain response [10][18] - Different industries will experience varying levels of pressure from tariffs, with textiles, apparel, computers, and electronics facing the most significant challenges due to their high reliance on imports from China [22][23] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that U.S. economic growth can be sustained until the end of the year, supported by consumer spending and investment, but warns that renewed tariffs could lead to stagnation [36][37] - It notes that the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is constrained by inflationary pressures, which could further suppress private sector credit expansion and investment [8][36] - The potential for tax cuts and further tariff reductions could alleviate some of the economic pressures, but the timing and implementation of these measures remain uncertain [9][57] Group 4 - The financial market's stability is under scrutiny, particularly following a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which could affect investor confidence and market dynamics [58][59] - The article points out that the upcoming debt ceiling resolution and increased bond supply could lead to liquidity issues in the market, impacting the overall financial landscape [59][61] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency are raised, particularly if tariffs continue to affect trade balances and investor sentiment [65]

为什么不抓住时机放弃"三重锁定"呢？这样做将允许开展更多的长期项目，从而极大改善国家的增长前 景和财政健康状况。 在成为第一个与美国达成新贸易"协议"（或至少是协议框架）的国家之后，英国首相基尔·斯塔默领导 的工党政府即将迎来备受期待的支出审查和十年基础设施战略的发布。对于一个承诺将经济增长作为重 中之重的政府来说，这可能是说服国民相信其认真态度的最后机会。 政府不仅受制于外部环境，也受制于自身的胆怯。自去年竞选活动以来斯塔默在名义上围绕五项"使 命"制定了工党的战略，而其中第一项使命就是实现七国集团（G7）中最快的经济增长。但在去年7月 上台后不久，他的政府就决定将重点放在英国的各类财政挑战上，这意味着要实施紧缩政策并与首要目 标的精神背道而驰。 虽说政府在2024年秋季预算中引入了更大胆的财政框架，并增加了针对学校和国家医疗服务体系的资本 支出；但这些并不是促进增长、提高生产力的基础设施投资形式。而英国预算责任办公室则预测原有的 增长趋势线不会有任何改善。 如果英国增加对预防感染和其他疾病的投资，而不是增加对国家医疗服务体系的投入，情况会怎样呢？ 我想大多数预测者都会认为，从长远来看这类支出更能促进经济增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of shrinking trading volume, the stock index fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to have long positions in 182506 and IP2506, and also allocate more to IM2506 because of its relatively high annualized basis rate [5]. - The joint statement between China and the US, domestic economic data improvement, policy support, capital market reforms, and "national team" actions are important factors supporting the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Domestic indices continued to fluctuate weakly this week, while US stocks fell significantly. By May 23, 2025, the NASDAQ fell 2.47%, the S&P 500 fell 2.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.65%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57%, the CSI 1000 fell 1.23%, the SSE 50 fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.88%, and the STAR 50 fell 1.47%. The performance of Shenwan's primary 31 industry indices was divergent, with sectors such as medicine, biology, non - ferrous metals, and automobiles rising, and sectors such as computers, machinery, and electronics falling [13][14]. Liquidity - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, and the growth rate of M2 rebounded. The net MLF investment in April was 50 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7% year - on - year, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. More than 80% of the 1.16 trillion yuan increase in social financing came from new government bond financing. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, the M1 growth rate declined month - on - month, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to - 6.5%, indicating insufficient economic vitality [24]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The trading volume of the two markets continued to decline to around one trillion yuan. The number of new stock account openings in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, and in April it dropped to 1.92 million [27][37]. Index Valuation - As of May 23, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.48, with a percentile of 62.56, and the latest PE of the All - A Index was 18.95, with a percentile of 59.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentile ranking was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [53]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banks, food and beverage, and non - bank finance were relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 were relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were exactly the same, namely electronics, medicine and biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 had a higher weight [54].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that regulatory easing will promote economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 [1] Group 1 - Regulatory changes are expected to have a positive impact on economic growth [1] - The anticipated timeline for these effects is specifically in the latter half of 2026 [1]

星展集团：新加坡核心通货膨胀将在今年剩余时间保持温和 美国银行：美国消费者信用卡支出在5月初出现放缓 澳新银行预测显示，截至2025年底，印度央行预计将会实施三次降息操作；鉴于目前印度的通胀压力并 不显著，而经济增长却显得疲软，这可能会推动印度央行持续采取宽松的货币政策以刺激经济。倘若 2025年第一季度的GDP数据未能达到预期，印度央行可能不得不下调本财年6.5%的经济增长预期。 美国银行指出，美国消费者信用卡支出从3月同比增长1.1%放缓至4月下半月的同比增长1%。5月前两 周，支出增长持平，没有同比增长；鉴于征收关税和相应的价格上涨导致经济不确定性依然很高，分析 师继续密切关注消费者的反应。 万神殿宏观经济公司认为，美国消费增长的减缓可能引发经济步入"停滞"阶段，尽管衰退或许可以避 免。企业界预期消费者需求将会减弱，并已经开始减少招聘人数。 预计裁员的步伐将加快，新的招聘活动也将减少，特别是在关税导致的价格上涨开始生效之后，消费者 支出从高于平均水平转向低于平均水平。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家认为，美国消费疲软是影响美国经济前景的主要风险，物价上涨可能 导致美联储在更长时间内维持较高利率；如果美国 ...

暴力降息！ 据央视新闻，埃及央行货币政策委员会（MPC）决定，将基准利率下调100个基点，调整后的隔夜存贷款利率 分别为24%和25%。这是埃及央行自今年4月以来连续第二次降息。在4月17日，埃及央行将基准利率下调了 225个基点。 今年以来，全球不少国家和地区央行都已经降息。4月17日，欧洲中央银行（ECB）将三项关键利率下调25个 基点。英格兰银行在2月和5月两次降息，将基准利率从5%降至4.75%，再降至4.25%。澳大利亚储备银行 （RBA）于2025年5月20日将现金利率下调25个基点至3.85%。印尼央行于2025年5月将基准利率下调25个基点 至5.5%。欧洲央行管委Rehn今天更表示，若有数据支撑，6月降息是合适的。 从降息的原因来看，主要还是为了应对关税带来的经济不确定性。那么，这对全球而言，又会有多大影响？ 埃及大降息 埃及央行决定，将基准利率下调100个基点，调整后的隔夜存贷款利率分别为24%和25%。这是继4月份之后的 又一次大幅下调利率。 《金字塔在线》4月17日报道。MPC宣布，大幅下调基准利率225个基点，调整后隔夜存款利率、隔夜贷款利 率、主要操作利率分别降至25%、26%和2 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government indicates that favorable monsoon conditions will further boost economic growth in India [1] - The defense budget in India is sufficient, with no significant additional growth in defense demand expected for the fiscal year 2026 [1]

建安投资小幅增长，基础设施投资拉动明显。1—4月，全省建安投资增长2%。分领域看，基础设 施投资（不含电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业）同比增长31.4%，拉动全部投资增长6.6个百分点；公共 服务投资增长30.5%。 市场销售稳中提速，"以旧换新"成效明显。1—4月，全省社会消费品零售总额877.77亿元，同比增 长6.1%，较一季度加快1.9个百分点。按消费类型分，商品零售774.89亿元，同比增长6.9%；餐饮收入 102.87亿元，增长0.3%。"以旧换新"加力扩围工作持续推进，全省限额以上家用电器和音像器材类零售 额同比增长7.7%，通讯器材类零售额增长5.6%，家具类零售额增长2.8倍，建筑及装潢材料类零售额增 长3.3倍。汽车类零售额同比增长78.7%，其中新能源汽车零售额增长1.6倍。 服务贸易较快增长，财政金融运行平稳。1—4月，全省服务进出口总额216.26亿元，同比增长 19.2%。全省地方一般公共预算收入359.15亿元，同比增长3.8%。地方一般公共预算支出779.67亿元， 同比增长10.8%。 居民消费价格同比略降，绿色发展持续向好。1—4月，全省居民消费价格同比下降0.4%。全省环 ...

美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：我们的经济增长将超过3%。 ...