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转债周度跟踪:寻找理性的支撑-20250726
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-26 13:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds have certain logical support from aspects such as bond floor and institutional behavior [3][7]. - The thick bond floor of convertible bonds currently may lead to an upward breakthrough in the average price as the stock market rises, and the existence of call - risk may cause the valuation and price of non - called convertible bonds to become more expensive [3][7]. - The option value of debt - like convertible bonds has increased, and their high - price and high - valuation state may be maintained, with the YTM possibly dropping to a very low level [3][7]. - As the equity market continues to strengthen and funds flow into equity - related assets, convertible bonds have become a tool for fixed - income plus funds to capture the beta of the equity market. If secondary bond funds replace primary bond funds as the marginal incremental form of fixed - income plus funds flowing into the market, the capital inflow into the convertible bond market may continue to increase [3][7]. - The average remaining term of the convertible bond market is gradually shortening, indicating an increase in both call and downward - revision probabilities. The high price of short - term debt - like convertible bonds currently contains a strong downward - revision expectation [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds are supported by four clues, including the thick bond floor, the increase in the option value of debt - like convertible bonds, the strengthening of the equity market and the inflow of funds, and the shortening of the average remaining term of the convertible bond market [3][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the sentiment of convertible bonds and underlying stocks remained positive, with both rising significantly. The 100 - yuan valuation continued to rise unilaterally, and convertible bonds had a strong ability to follow the rise of underlying stocks [6][8]. - The overall market convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 33%, rising by 1.14% in a single week, and the latest quantile level was at the 89.90% percentile since 2017. There was an obvious differentiation in the valuation of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with the valuation of low - rated convertible bonds rising more [6][8]. - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise significantly following the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low since 2017, reporting - 5.09%. As of the latest, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 41.94%, 37.06%, and - 5.09% respectively, changing by - 1.31%, + 3.02%, and - 0.70% compared with last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 61.90, 62.70, and 0.00 percentiles since 2017 [6][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, convertible bonds such as Yingji, Chujiang, and Liancheng issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 22 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity convertible bonds among those not delisted is 5 billion yuan [6][14]. - There are currently 52 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 14 of which are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Also, 4 convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [14][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 and Jinneng convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and Jingao convertible bond announced a downward revision to the bottom. As of the latest, 145 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 24 are restricted by net assets and cannot be downward - revised, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [6][20][21]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Guowei and Changqi convertible bonds issued put - option announcements. As of the latest, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 4 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval and 1 is accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There were no convertible bond issuance announcements this week. According to the latest announcement, Bo 25 convertible bond is to be listed next week (July 28, 2025). As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress with an expected issuance scale of 6.9 billion yuan, and 3 in the listing - committee approval progress with an expected issuance scale of 4 billion yuan [25].
转债周度跟踪:预期偏向乐观,估值再度上扬-20250426
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-26 12:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As of the end of April, the equity market has mostly recovered. The impact of tariff issues on asset prices has become relatively dull, and domestic pro - growth policies have provided effective support, leading to an overall optimistic market expectation. This optimism is reflected in convertible bond valuations, with the market - wide par premium rate approaching the March central level. Small - cap convertible bonds remain strong, but as the earnings disclosure period and rating adjustment window approach, debt - biased convertible bonds perform weakly. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to use high - dividend and downward - revised convertible bonds as the base, focus on recent cases of proposed downward revisions, and look for potential targets with a strong willingness to promote conversion. Asymmetrical trading, double - low momentum, and clause - based gaming strategies are also recommended [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets were volatile, and convertible bond valuations continued to rise, with lower - rated valuations rising slightly more. The market - wide convertible bond par premium rate was 29%, up 1.19% for the week, and the latest quantile was at the 76.80% percentile since 2017. The increase in high - and low - rated valuations was similar, with the low - rated up 0.71% [3]. - This week, convertible bonds fluctuated slightly following the underlying stocks, and the premium rate indicators were generally stable. As of the latest, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 52.71%, 22.79%, and - 1.62% respectively, changing by - 1.35%, + 1.08%, and - 0.25% from last week. Their current quantiles are at the 85.00, 22.50, and 32.50 percentiles since 2017 [6]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Huaxiang and Feikai convertible bonds issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 4 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption announcements and are still trading. No convertible bonds issued maturity redemption announcements this week. Among the still - trading convertible bonds, the potential maturity or conversion balance of early - redemption and maturity convertible bonds is 1.6 billion yuan [12]. - Limin convertible bond announced that it would not redeem the convertible bonds in advance. As of the latest, 58 convertible bonds are within the non - redemption period [16]. 3.2.2 Downward Revision - This week, Weier, Linggang, and Haiyou convertible bonds announced downward revisions, and Zhongzhuang Zhuan 2, Jieneng, Fengyu, and Wanshun Zhuan 2 proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 167 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 4 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 95 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [17]. 3.2.3 Put No convertible bonds issued put announcements this week. As of the latest, 18 convertible bonds are accumulating put - trigger days, among which 2 are in the downward - revision process, 1 has proposed a downward revision, and 15 are in the non - downward - revision interval [22]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - There were no announcements of convertible bond issuances this week. According to the latest announcements, no convertible bonds are scheduled to be listed next week. As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approved - registration process with a to - be - issued scale of 13 billion yuan, and 7 in the listing - committee - approved process with a to - be - issued scale of 4.3 billion yuan [24].