Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on 50Y treasury bonds [7] Core View of the Report - In the current volatile market with increasing bullish bond market catalysts, the duration advantage of 50Y treasury bonds can be considered, but due to liquidity factors and changes in demand - side institutional behavior, and limited downward space for interest rates, a neutral view is maintained [7] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions and Opportunities for 50Y Treasury Bonds - Since June, trading opportunities in the bond market have gradually increased. Market reaction to Sino - US negotiations has dulled, May's fundamental data is likely to be favorable for the bond market, large banks have increased short - bond purchases, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum may bring trading opportunities in the capital market [2] - Compared with other bonds, 50Y treasury bonds have a duration advantage in a bull market. Their supply and liquidity are weaker than 30Y bonds. The balance of treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 45Y - 50Y is about 50.2 billion yuan, while that of 25Y - 30Y is over 2.2 trillion yuan. The current yield - to - maturity of 50Y treasury bonds is lower than that of 30Y local government bonds [2] - Another trading opportunity for 50Y treasury bonds is the interest rate elasticity after primary issuance. Since 2017, in nearly half of the 50Y treasury bond issuances, the primary issuance rate was higher than the secondary rate, often occurring in volatile or bear markets and related to the behavior of long - term bond - allocating institutions such as insurance companies [3][6] Demand - Side Analysis - Insurance institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long - term bonds. They have steadily increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds over the years, while funds may extend their duration at certain times for trading purposes [6] - June is a key time for insurance institutions to potentially increase their allocation of 50Y treasury bonds, but the allocation intensity this year may be lower than in previous years. The reasons include lower premium growth from January to April this year, high government bond issuance since the first quarter leading to more primary - market bond purchases by allocation funds, and insurance institutions' preference for 30Y local government bonds due to their higher coupon rates [6]

债 券 研 究 债 券 周 评 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 张杰 A0230524050002 zhangjie@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 张杰 (8621)23297818× zhangjie@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 17 日 哑铃配置风格愈发强化 ——转债周度跟踪 20250516 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周转债弱于正股，转债整体估值小幅下降。全市场转债百元溢价率为 28%，单周下行 0.02%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 73.1 百分位。低评级转债百元溢价率 23%， 单周下行 0.2%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 71.2 百分位。高评级转债百元溢价率 22%，单周下行 0.31%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 79.6 百分位。 ⚫ 本周转债表现 ...

2025 年 04 月 26 日 预期偏向乐观，估值再度上扬 ——转债周度跟踪 20250425 ⚫ 1. 转债估值 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 张杰 A0230524050002 zhangjie@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 (8621)23297818× xuya@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 债 券 周 评 ⚫ 本周权益和转债市场处于震荡势，转债估值继续推升，低评级估值上行幅度略大。全市场 转债百元溢价率为 29%，单周上行 1.19%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 76.80% 百分位。高、低评级估值上行幅度接近，低评级上行幅度略大、为 0.71%。 ⚫ 本周转债跟随正股小幅震荡，溢价率指标整体持稳。截止最新，转股溢价率指数、纯债溢 价率指数、到期收益率分别为 52.71%、22.79%、-1.62 ...