Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price center of synthetic rubber is expected to move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be strong, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View 3.1.1 Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, a growth of 10,100 tons compared to December 2025. One plant is planned for maintenance in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year. Some other plant maintenance plans may be cancelled, and a 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical is planned to stop production throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost supporting the lower - end valuation [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the rigid - demand aspect, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue weak operation from December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged regular maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and the end - of - month production schedule decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, so the overall capacity utilization rate may decline slightly [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand is also high. Thus, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. Affected by factors such as the cost boost, the expected strong market in the first and middle of January, and pre - holiday stocking, some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory, while sample trading enterprises' inventory increased [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (dynamically moving up following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually narrows [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View 3.2.1 Supply From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. Some plants were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a temporary short - stop. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of output from the Dongming Petrochemical plant [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of cis - butadiene rubber plant maintenance, the rigid - demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene is expected to remain high [9]. - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene maintains rigid - demand procurement with little change [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly. The total sample inventory decreased by 0.13% month - on - month compared to last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, while the sample port inventory increased by 3.23% month - on - month. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and cis - butadiene rubber, the butadiene industry is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output and daily operating rate data of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber from 2020 to 2025 are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are also provided [47][48]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross - profit rate data of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2026 are presented [49][50][51]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export quantity data of cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly apparent demand data from 2020 to 2026 [52][53][54]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, trade - enterprise inventory, and SHFE futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [57][59]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand The inventory and operating - rate data of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [61][62].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it enters a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of overall fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened, leading to a correction. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculation, it enters a volatile pattern in the short term [4][5] - **Butadiene**: In the short term, the relatively low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, and the trading situation improves. Overall, butadiene rebounds in the short term, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - **Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber this cycle is 30,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 7.89%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.26%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber plants [4] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,300 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to move up slightly. The valuation logic has switched from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [4] 3.1.2 Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly. Currently, the shipment rhythm of each enterprise is slow, the finished product inventory continues to rise, and under the pressure of production and sales, enterprises continue to control production flexibly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will continue to operate weakly next cycle [4] - **Substitute Demand**: Currently, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitute demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This cycle (from December 12 to December 18, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 112,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 112,600 tons, a slight increase compared with this cycle [7] - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] 3.2.2 Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain at a high level, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant overhauls in December, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with limited incremental demand [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene, with little change [9] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (from December 11 to December 17, 2025), the domestic butadiene inventory has fluctuated slightly, and the total sample inventory has increased by 0.49% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory has increased by 0.73% compared with last week, and the sample port inventory has increased by 0.28% compared with last week [9]