国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

l js 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的推确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成时您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突，未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、 行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资 料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/29 | 品种 | 类別 | 指标 | 11/26 | 12/22 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 1.62%, while the chemical machinery index decreased by 0.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index fell by 1.69%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index rose by 4.21% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included folic acid up by 20%, battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 11.08%, nitric acid up by 10.43%, sulfur up by 9.95%, and petroleum coke up by 7.23% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products were liquid chlorine down by 34%, butadiene down by 7.69%, 2,4-D down by 6.09%, trichloroethylene down by 6.00%, and SBS down by 5.90% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - The oil processing index rose by 1.39%, while the oil extraction index fell by 0.22%, and the oil trading index increased by 3.44% [1] - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $56.66 per barrel, down 1.36% from December 12, and Brent crude oil futures settling at $60.47 per barrel, down 1.06% from December 12 [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Listed Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies included Sulihua Co., Ltd. up by 30.69%, Xinri Hengli up by 27.48%, Reborn Technology up by 23.25%, Ruihua Tai up by 20.93%, and Shenjian Co., Ltd. up by 20.50% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies were Huarong Chemical down by 20.01%, Enjie Co., Ltd. down by 18.36%, Weike Technology down by 13.15%, Jinbantai down by 12.83%, and Xingye Co., Ltd. down by 12.63% [2]

湖南石化本部的SBC装置区 湖南石化是我国最早实现SBC弹性体工业化生产的企业，上世纪80年代建成投产国内领先的万吨级 SBS(苯乙烯—丁二烯—苯乙烯嵌段共聚物)工业化装置；2006年建成投产国内领先的万吨级SEBS(氢化 苯乙烯—丁二烯—苯乙烯嵌段共聚物)工业化装置，打破国外技术垄断；2017年建成投产国内领先的年 产2万吨SEPS(氢化苯乙烯—异戊二烯共聚物)工业化装置，成为全球第三家采用具有自主知识产权核心 技术工业化生产SEPS的企业。该公司自主研发的SBS及SEBS成套技术分别获国家科学技术进步奖一等 奖、二等奖，增强了我国在高端合成橡胶领域的核心竞争力。 近年来，依托中国石化一体化、市场区位、技术及原料供应优势，结合市场形势变化，湖南石化先后与 海南炼化和上海石化合作，共同出资建设年产17万吨和25万吨SBC弹性体项目，优化合成材料发展布 局，通过"走出去"，到有原料、有市场的地区发展优势产品，进一步增强了企业核心竞争力。这两个项 目均采用中国石化自主知识产权的成套工艺技术，在环境保护、能耗控制和生产效率方面均显著优于传 统技术路线。 2023年4月，海南巴陵化工新材料公司建成投产SBC弹性体装置 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期步入震荡格局 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期步入震荡格局 • 周期内裕龙石化高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启后稳定产出，且部分前期检修装置负荷提升，带动周内产能利用率达到高位水平。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.06 万吨，较上周期增加0.22万吨，环比+7.89%，产能利用率76.26%，环比提升5.57个百分点。周期内裕龙石化、浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置负荷提升，独山子石 化顺丁橡胶装置停车，下周期预计国内顺丁装置变动有限。 （隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅走低，目前各企业出货节奏偏慢，成品库存继续攀升，产销压力下，企业灵活控产延续，部分样本企业存 停限产现象，拖拽样本企业产能利用率走低。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率延续偏弱运行态势。检修企业复工，将对整体产能利用率形成一定支 撑，但随着产销 ...

jis 合成橡胶早报 2500 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 AAV 1000 11/1 2/1 -200 500 -400 0 -600 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2024 2023 2024 2025 2025 顺丁出口利润(东南亚 BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 11/1 10/1 r 12/ 9VV V12/ 11/1 5/1 - 6/1 8/1 10/1 4/1 7/1 3/1 2/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 2020 2023 2020 2024 -2021 2024 ·2025 2021 2022 2025 -2022 2023 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 10/1 12/1 6/ RPORAL / / / - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and the lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. The NR - BR spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. The butadiene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a low - level oscillation in the medium - term [2][4] - The butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous cycle, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, a 3.34 - percentage - point increase. Next cycle, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials are expected to resume production [4] - Some enterprises' production schedules are lower than normal levels, and some enterprises still have maintenance arrangements, which limit the increase in capacity utilization [4] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises is expected to increase next cycle, but the increase is limited due to slow shipment and production control by enterprises. In terms of substitution demand, the NR - BR spread remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation and the cost line of butadiene also providing support. The upper valuation of the disk is around 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Operate weakly within the short - term fundamental valuation range, with upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - This cycle (20251128 - 1204), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,200 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous cycle. Next week, it is expected to be about 113,500 tons, an increase from this cycle [5] - Due to the high ethylene cracking start - up in China in the fourth quarter, the domestic butadiene output and imports are at a year - on - year high. However, the Asian regional start - up rate has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in butadiene supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium - term, the start - up rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In the short - term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase in December. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and that from SBS remains stable [4][7] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (20251127 - 1203), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased by 7.41% from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased by 13.11%. As of December 3, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous cycle. The inventory is still at a relatively high level [7] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short - term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, the transaction improves, and the price stabilizes. The Asian butadiene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the fundamental pattern has improved marginally. In the medium - term, the high supply of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5] 3.3 Capacity Expansion 3.3.1 Butadiene - In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, it was 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026. The expansion speed and amplitude of butadiene are slightly faster than those of its downstream industries [12][14] 3.3.2 Downstream Products of Butadiene - **Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [20] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026 [22][23] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1,635,000 tons in 2025 and 1,300,000 tons in 2026 [30][32] - **SBS**: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [34][35]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 27, 2025 [3] Key Information on BR Futures Data - BR主力合约(12): Price on November 26 was 10360, up 90 from the previous day and down 160 from October 27 [4] - Holdings: On November 26, it was 63030, down 5705 from the previous day and 8982 from October 27 [4] - Trading Volume: On November 26, it was 129096, up 15027 from the previous day and 15792 from October 27 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On November 26, it was 15380, up 2880 from the previous day and 3350 from October 27 [4] - Virtual - Real Ratio: On November 26, it was 20.49, down 7 from the previous day and 9 from October 27 [4] Basis and Spread - Cis - Butyl Basis: On November 26, it was 40, down 190 from the previous day and 40 from October 27 [4] - Butyl County Basis: On November 26, it was 490, down 190 from the previous day and 140 from October 27 [4] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 26, it was - 30, unchanged from the previous day and October 27 [4] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 26, it was 5, down 10 from the previous day and 15 from October 27 [4] - RU - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 4835, down 20 from the previous day and up 105 from October 27 [4] - NR - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 1805, down 75 from the previous day and up 5 from October 27 [4] Spot Prices and Profits - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 10400, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Transfar Market Price: On November 26, it was 10250, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Qilu Factory Price: On November 26, it was 10400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from October 27 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1325, unchanged from the previous day and down 55 from October 27 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from October 27 [4] - Spot Processing Profit: On November 26, it was 831, down 177 from the previous day and up 121 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was - 712, down 100 from the previous day and up 43 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was 1642, up 87 from the previous day and down 152 from October 27 [4] Key Information on BD Spot Prices - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 7225, up 75 from the previous day and down 315 from October 27 [4] - Jiangsu Market Price: On November 26, it was 7025, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Yangzi Factory Price: On November 26, it was 7100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from October 27 [4] - CFR China: On November 26, it was 820, up 20 from the previous day and 50 from October 27 [4] Profits - Ethylene Cracking Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - C4 Extraction Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - Butylene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On November 26, it was - 1789, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was 310, down 85 from the previous day and 652 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was - 1302, down from the previous day and 1060 from October 27 [4] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit: On November 26, it was 1363, up 50 from the previous day and down 38 from October 27 [4] - ABS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 359, down 58 from the previous day [4] - SBS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 302, up 40 from the previous day and 82 from October 27 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]