国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 2025年10月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量：13.13万吨左右，较9月份预期略增长0.09万吨。预计未来一月共5套装置计划检修，涉及年加工能力42万吨/年。4 季度后顺丁橡胶行业检修相对集中，尤其中石化方面企业普遍在10月初后进入检修流程。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，10月轮胎企业整体订单表现环比弱化。欧盟反倾销因素制约，目前部分欧盟市场为主企业订单环比上月缩减明显，加之连续降雨，居民出行 及运输均受到较大影响，整体需求表现偏弱，部分企业在国庆中秋"双节"期间存5-8天检修计划，期间整体出货表现不及预期，成品库存去库缓慢， 加之市场涨跌局面较为混乱，更 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is under pressure but the downside space is narrowing. The butadiene market is facing increasing fundamental pressure, with supply expansion outpacing demand growth in the medium to long term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - Shandong Weite, Taihang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants continued maintenance. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,000 tons, a 5.12% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a 3.76 - percentage - point decline [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Some tire companies increased production of winter tires, but overall shipment was below expectations. Substitute demand remained high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintained a year - on - year high growth rate. As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 2.29% [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation is 11,000 yuan/ton [4]. Viewpoint - In the short term, it is under pressure and the driving force is neutral downward, but the downside space is narrowing. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly from high supply. The macro - environment has a limited impact on the commodity market [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, short at high levels within the static valuation range, with an upper pressure of 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and a lower support of 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Views Supply - The weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was estimated to be 100,900 tons, a 2.26% decrease from the previous period. Next week, the output is expected to increase slightly to about 102,000 tons [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the demand for butadiene remained high. In the ABS sector, the demand was expected to be constant due to large inventory pressure. In the SBS sector, the demand remained stable [5]. Inventory - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total domestic butadiene sample inventory decreased by 4.88% week - on - week. Although the short - term inventory decreased, there were still expectations of ship arrivals [5]. Viewpoint - In the short term, supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is neutral, with butadiene oscillating. In the medium to long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the market is expected to enter a weak pattern [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the growth of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. Supply - Side - Operating Rate - Multiple plants were under maintenance, affecting the output. The operating rate data showed fluctuations over the years [14][15]. Net Imports - The net import volume data showed changes over the years, and the import profit was also affected by factors such as market price and import cost [16]. Demand - Side - Capacity of Downstream Products - The capacity of downstream products such as butadiene - styrene rubber and butadiene rubber continued to expand, and the operating and maintenance conditions of related plants varied [20][26]. Demand - Side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals - The ABS polymer's operating rate, net profit, and inventory data showed different trends over the years. The SBS capacity utilization rate also fluctuated [32][33]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene showed different trends over the years, and there were expectations of future inventory changes [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Output: The output and operating rate data of high - cis butadiene rubber showed changes over the years, and multiple plants had maintenance plans [40][41]. - Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [42][43][44]. - Import and Export: The import, export, and apparent demand data of butadiene rubber showed changes over the years [45][46][47]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [49][50][51]. Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires - The inventory and operating rate data of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends over the years [54][55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - sentiment of synthetic rubber are in intensified contradiction, and it will operate in a volatile manner. The supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction in the medium - to - long term, and its fundamentals are still under significant pressure [2][4][6]. - For synthetic rubber, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate under the pattern of both supply and demand increase, and the inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased. However, due to the expected preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and the "anti - involution" policy, the market has certain support, and the price will fluctuate within the fundamental valuation range [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants stopped for maintenance this week. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 8.15% week - on - week [4]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of sample tire production enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The substitution demand remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4][5]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels within the fundamental static valuation range without chasing short positions, and also refer to macro - sentiment. The upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: In the current cycle (20250905 - 0911), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. Next week, it is expected to be about 102,500 tons, still showing a downward trend [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS remains stable [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased slightly this week, with the sample enterprise inventory down 0.81% week - on - week and the sample port inventory down 17.29% week - on - week. However, there are still expectations of ship arrivals, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored [8]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [13]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of butadiene has fluctuated, and many plants have experienced maintenance or shutdowns [17][18]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations, and the import profit is also affected by market prices [20]. - **Demand - side - Capacity and Operation of Downstream Products**: The capacities of downstream products such as butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, and their operating rates and production plans vary [22][23][29][33]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: The output of butadiene rubber has fluctuated, and many plants have normal operations, maintenance plans, or shutdowns. The cost, profit, and inventory of butadiene rubber have also shown corresponding changes [43][44][45]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire**: The inventory and operating rates of domestic tires (including all - steel tires and semi - steel tires) in Shandong Province have shown certain trends, and the demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry is affected by these factors [57][58].

证券代码：605008 证券简称：长鸿高科 公告编号：2025-056 宁波长鸿高分子科技股份有限公司 | 主要产品名称 | 2025 年第二季度 平均销售单价 | 2024 年第二季度 平均销售单价 | 变动比例 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | (元/吨) | | | SBS | 10,905.76 | 11,820.77 | -7.74 | | SEBS | 12,346.74 | 13,309.76 | -7.24 | | PBT | 6,871.72 | 7,871.23 | -12.70 | | 热拌用沥青再生剂 | 2,810.80 | 3,589.55 | -21.69 | | 改质沥青 | 3,354.13 | | | | 黑色母粒 | 5,333.92 | 6,753.22 | -21.02 | | THF | 8,750.82 | 9,972.90 | -12.25 | （2）主要原材料价格变动情况(不含税) 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market sentiment for natural rubber has weakened, and the tapping work is affected by weather fluctuations, which may cause the price of natural rubber to fluctuate. For synthetic rubber, the raw material cost has decreased and the inventory has accumulated, which may lead to a weakening price trend with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of relevant rubber types [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data Natural Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 15010, down 55 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369834 hands, a decrease of 203402 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 198795 hands, a decrease of 6497 hands; the registered warrant volume was 181920, a decrease of 100; the basis was -135, a decrease of 145; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -125, unchanged; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread (spot and futures) was -200, a decrease of 25; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 125, an increase of 200; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -70, a decrease of 20; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 25, an increase of 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 35, unchanged [1] Synthetic Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 11835, down 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 104614 hands, a decrease of 46246 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 41136 hands, a decrease of 3967 hands; the registered warrant volume was 10190, a decrease of 50; the basis was -68.33, an increase of 3.34; the North China - East China butadiene rubber spread (spot and futures) was 0; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, an increase of 50; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 25, unchanged [1] Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places, with less precipitation in Hainan. As of July 24, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week. As of July 29, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was 30.97 yuan/ton, up 199.11 yuan/ton from the previous day, turning from negative to positive; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization process was 486.73 yuan/ton, up 159.3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of butadiene rubber solution condensation process was -610.62 yuan/ton, up 205.49 yuan/ton from the previous day. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product devices is stable [1] Inventory Natural Rubber - As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210.81 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.11 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.96 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons from the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 8.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [1] Synthetic Rubber - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, an increase of 156 tons from the previous week; the weekly inventory of butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.3 thousand tons from the previous week [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and the major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 29, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 5.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 16660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not obvious, the oil price volatility has returned to a shock, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of July 29, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.5%, a decrease of 0.12% from the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217.7 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184.3 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316 thousand vehicles, an increase of 24.5 thousand vehicles from the previous month, and the tire matching demand has increased [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position**: On July 17, the closing price of the main contract was 11,570, up 45 from the previous day and down 45 week - on - week; the position of the main contract was 18,411, down 2,292 from the previous day and down 8,895 week - on - week; the trading volume of the main contract was 69,387, up 11,938 from the previous day and down 34,296 week - on - week [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,100 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 9.49, down 1 from the previous day and down 6 week - on - week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30, up 55 from the previous day and up 145 week - on - week; the 7 - 8 spread was - 40, up 90 from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week; the 8 - 9 spread was - 50, down 25 week - on - week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,600, up 100 from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 188, down 2 from the previous day and down 104 week - on - week; the on - screen processing profit was - 218, down 57 from the previous day and down 249 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,823, up 20 from the previous day and down 765 week - on - week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 200 week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, up 50 from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 400 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 446, up 190 from the previous day and up 530 week - on - week; the import profit was 651, up 124 from the previous day and up 245 week - on - week; the export profit was - 1,293, down 38 from the previous day and down 357 week - on - week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The ABS production profit was 518, up 73 from the previous day and up 210 week - on - week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 670, down 70 from the previous day and down 135 week - on - week [4]. Spread - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The RU - BR spread was - 3,746, up 2,457 from the previous day and up 9,155 week - on - week; the NR - BR spread was - 5,826, up 2,387 from the previous day and up 9,080 week - on - week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,820, up 20 from the previous day and up 120 week - on - week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week [4].

Core Viewpoint - The SBS market is experiencing a downward trend in the first half of 2025 due to oversupply and negative impacts from export tariffs, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the second half of the year [1][2][8] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the SBS market price showed a general downward trend, aligning with previous forecasts, with a price fluctuation lower than expected [1][2] - The average price in the East China 792E market was 14,514 CNY/ton in Q1, down 4.16% from the previous quarter, and the price as of June 30 was 12,950 CNY/ton, a 10.7% decrease from the beginning of the year [2][3] Supply and Production - Domestic SBS production increased significantly, reaching 487,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 35.13% year-on-year growth, with June production hitting a record high of 89,000 tons [5] - The average gross profit for domestic SBS was 523 CNY/ton, an increase of 803 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year, indicating a generally favorable profit level [5] Demand and Export - Demand for SBS was lower than expected due to macroeconomic factors and tariff impacts, with fixed asset investment in transportation down 7.7% year-on-year [7] - Although SBS exports increased by 10.69% year-on-year in the first five months, April saw a negative growth of 12.58% month-on-month, reflecting the adverse effects of tariffs [7] Future Outlook - The SBS market is expected to face continued supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with new production facilities coming online and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][9] - The anticipated price range for SBS in the East China market for the second half is projected to be between 11,500 and 13,600 CNY/ton, influenced by seasonal demand and the performance of raw material markets [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The cost of butadiene, a key raw material for cis - butadiene rubber, is weakening due to increased supply pressure in the domestic butadiene market. The cis - butadiene rubber market shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to greater fundamental pressure. However, the widening NR - BR spread to around 1,500 yuan/ton may support the single - sided price of cis - butadiene rubber [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook and Analysis - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to decline due to weak butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the futures is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical full - cost estimate of cis - butadiene rubber is mainly based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliaries + labor) [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, while the domestic butadiene market is weak with a downward - trending price center. Supply is high as the industry's operating rate is still at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is maintained at a high level with the resumption of some ethylene plants. Imports are neutral in the short term. Demand from cis - butadiene rubber procurement is neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS. Inventories show an increase in producer inventories and a slight decline in port inventories [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually returning above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and substitution demand is expected to increase. Inventories are continuously at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force for synthetic rubber, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The cost side is affected by the weakening butadiene market, and the market shows a pattern where supply growth exceeds demand growth, resulting in greater fundamental pressure. The widening NR - BR spread may support the price [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weakness in single - sided trading; the NR - BR spread is expected to widen [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation, and in 2025, a total of 860,000 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the butadiene industry remains at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production to some extent [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The report provides data on butadiene imports, exports, and net imports, but does not make a specific analysis of the trend [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber is also expanding, with new projects being put into operation in different regions [17][18][19]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber show different trends, and some enterprises have maintenance and production adjustment plans [22][23][24]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS is also increasing, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [25][26][27][28]. - **Demand - side - Fundamentals of ABS and SBS**: The operating rate, profit, inventory, and capacity utilization rate of ABS and SBS show different trends, reflecting the market supply - demand relationship [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Butadiene producer inventories are increasing, while port inventories are slightly decreasing [31][32][33]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The weekly production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate remains at a certain level [38]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends over time [40][41][42]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends in different years [43][44]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends [47][48]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of domestic tires (full - steel and semi - steel) show different trends, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [51][52].