国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡中枢下移，中期有支撑 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期震荡中枢下移，中期有支撑 • 周期内扬子石化高顺顺丁橡胶装置临时短停，茂名石化高顺顺丁装置重启后负荷提升，华北地区部分前期降负民营顺丁橡胶装置负荷提升。本周期高顺 顺丁橡胶产量在3.17万吨，较上周期增加0.10万吨，环比+3.25%，产能利用率78.86%，环比2.48个百分点。下周期预计扬子石化、山东益华顺丁橡胶装置 恢复正常产出，产能利用率表现提升。 （隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为12300-13200元/吨。投机性减弱，上方估值压力逐步增加。下方估值而言，NR-BR已经完全收缩，价差对估值支 撑失效。有效支撑位为顺丁橡胶成本线，丁二烯预计从成本端对顺丁价格形成支撑。顺丁的理论完全成本估算主要基于丁二烯价格*1.02+（辅剂+人工） =10300*1.02+2 ...

l js 000 7200 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 "WW 1000 12/1 11/1 10/1 -200 500 -400 0 8/1 10/1 -600 7/1 5/1 111 12/1-h 9/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2023 -2025 2023 2024 - 2026 -2024 2025 ·2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 91/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 2021 2025 -2022 =2023 2024 ·2026 2021 -2022 -2023 2024 2026 ·2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 5/1 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：高位回落 本周合成橡胶观点：高位回落 供应 • 周期内茂名石化高顺顺丁装置重启，华北地区个别顺丁橡胶装置略有降负，总体产能利用率仅窄幅波动。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.07万吨，较上周期 增加0.0104万吨，环比+0.34%，产能利用率76.38%，环比0.27个百分点。周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，浩普新材料、振华新材料及山东益华顺 丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。下周期暂无新装置重启或停车检修消息，但仍需谨慎观望民营顺丁橡胶装置负荷情况。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，周期内部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升，对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分企业 仍存控产现象，拖拽产能利用率微跌。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将有所下滑。近期多种原料价格高位运行，成本压力下，部分样本企业在1月 底至2月初开 ...

l js 7200 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 "WW 1000 12/1 11/1 10/1 -200 500 -400 0 8/1 10/1 -600 7/1 5/1 111 12/1-h 9/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2023 -2025 2023 2024 - 2026 -2024 2025 ·2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 91/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 2021 2025 -2022 =2023 2024 ·2026 2021 -2022 -2023 2024 2026 ·2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 4/1 5/1 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract on 1/15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 5. The open interest was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393. The trading volume was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly decrease of 17,602. The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with a weekly increase of 2,000. The long - short ratio was 18.83, with a weekly increase of 13 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 5. The styrene - butadiene basis was 110, a daily increase of 110. The 02 - 03 spread was - 60, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 25. The 03 - 04 spread was - 35, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was 3,805, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 120. The NR - BR spread was 660, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4]. - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price, Chuanhua market price remained unchanged at 12,000 and 11,950 respectively. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,450, with a weekly increase of 35. The CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,675, with a weekly increase of 40 [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 273, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 383. The import profit was 75, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 237. The export profit was 603, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 242 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price on 1/15 was 9,875, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 375. The Jiangsu market price remained at 9,650, with a weekly increase of 350. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,550, with a weekly increase of 450. The CFR China price remained at 1,140 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The import profit was 516, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 687. The export profit was - 1,432, a daily increase of 694 and a weekly increase of 1,281. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 663, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 225. The ABS production profit remained at - 871, with a weekly decrease of 58. The SBS production profit was - 615, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 220 [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report date: January 14, 2026 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Data - BR主力合约收盘价: 12000 on January 13, with a daily change of -70 and a weekly change of 170 [4] - 持仓量: 95318 on January 13, with a daily change of 72576 and a weekly change of 58025 [4] - 成交量: 130171 on January 13, with a daily change of 45413 and a weekly change of 4302 [4] - 仓单数量: 26330 on January 13, with a daily change of 2000 and a weekly change of 3170 [4] - 虚实比: 18.10 on January 13, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 10 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - 顺丁县差: -100 on January 13, with a daily change of 70 and a weekly change of -20 [4] - 丁苯基差: 150 on January 13, with a daily change of 120 and a weekly change of 80 [4] - 02 - 03: -22 on January 13, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of -40 [4] - 03 - 04: -20 on January 13, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -20 [4] - RU - BR: 3975 on January 13, with a daily change of -85 and a weekly change of -245 [4] - NR - BR: 840 on January 13, with a daily change of -100 and a weekly change of -340 [4] Spot Data - 山东市场价: 11900 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - 传化市场价: 11850 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 12100 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 400 [4] - CFR东北亚: 1450 on January 13, with a daily change of 35 and a weekly change of 35 [4] - CFR东南亚: 1675 on January 13, with a daily change of 40 and a weekly change of 40 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润: -16 on January 13, with a daily change of -51 and a weekly change of -233 [4] - 进口利润: -24 on January 13, with a daily change of -276 and a weekly change of -109 [4] - 出口利润: 152 on January 13, with a daily change of 279 and a weekly change of 132 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Data - 山东市场价: 9322 on January 13, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 375 [4] - 江苏市场价: 9322 on January 13, with a daily change of 75 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 9200 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - CFR中国: 1105 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 130 [4] Profit Data - 乙烯裂解利润: N/A on January 13 [4] - 碳四抽提利润: N/A on January 13 [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: 111 on January 13, with a daily change of 75 and a weekly change of 465 [4] - 进口利润: 468 on January 13, with a daily change of 75 and a weekly change of -688 [4] - 出口利润: -1847 on January 13, with a daily change of 74 and a weekly change of 616 [4] Production Profit Data - 丁苯生产利润: 950 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 88 [4] - ABS生产利润: N/A on January 13 [4] - SBS生产利润: -340 on January 13, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -115 [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources: Mysteel, Wind [8]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [3] 2. Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data** - Closing price of BR main contract on January 9: 12,015, down 180 from the previous day and up 370 week - on - week [4] - Open interest on January 9: 26,339, down 3,889 from the previous day and down 13,898 week - on - week [4] - Trading volume on January 9: 101,221, down 66,416 from the previous day and up 13,867 week - on - week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 9: 24,330, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,170 week - on - week [4] - Long - short ratio on January 9: 5.41, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 week - on - week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety Data** - Butadiene rubber basis on January 9: 185, up 130 from the previous day and up 30 week - on - week [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 9: - 50, down 15 from the previous day and down 10 week - on - week [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 9: - 20, down 5 from the previous day and down 5 week - on - week [4] - RU - BR spread on January 9: 4,015, up 90 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on January 9: 11,950, down 50 from the previous day and up 350 week - on - week [4] - Transfar market price on January 9: 11,900, down 50 from the previous day and up 350 week - on - week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 9: 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and up 400 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on January 9: 1,415, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on January 9: 1,635, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] - **Profit Data** - Spot processing profit on January 9: 111, up 1 from the previous day and down 160 week - on - week [4] - Import profit on January 9: 286, down 26 from the previous day and up 355 week - on - week [4] - Export profit on January 9: 381, up 20 from the previous day and down 309 week - on - week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on January 9: 9,450, down 50 from the previous day and up 500 week - on - week [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 9: 9,250, down 50 from the previous day and up 500 week - on - week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 9: 9,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 week - on - week [4] - CFR China price on January 9: 1,005, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Profit Data** - Ethylene cracking profit on January 9: N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit on January 9: N/A [4] - Butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 9: 590, up 20 from the previous day and up 640 week - on - week [4] - Import profit on January 9: 1,170, down 33 from the previous day [4] - Export profit on January 9: - 1,913, up 170 from the previous day and up 401 week - on - week [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 9: 888, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 week - on - week [4] - ABS production profit on January 9: N/A [4] - SBS production profit on January 9: - 382, unchanged from the previous day and up 60 week - on - week [4] 3. Data Source - Data sources: Mysteel, Wind [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: January 11, 2026 - Report Author: Yang Honghan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience high-level oscillations in the short term [2][4] - The upward trend of butadiene is expected to slow down [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical's high-cis butadiene rubber plants continued to be shut down, while the load of individual butadiene rubber plants increased, with the capacity utilization rate reaching an absolute high level. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 31,800 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 2.55%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.15%, a month-on-month increase of 1.97 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene plants in the next cycle [5] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some enterprises were still in the shutdown and maintenance state during the "New Year's Day" holiday this week, gradually resuming work around the 4th. The production scheduling did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate to continue to decline. The shipment was slow during the cycle, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in a restorative manner in the next cycle, and the overall output will increase with the resumption of work and production of maintenance enterprises. Some enterprises continued to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase range [5] - In terms of alternative demand, the price difference between the main contracts of NR-BR is gradually narrowing, and the alternative demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year-on-year growth rate [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%. The output of domestic butadiene rubber continued to be at a high level this cycle. The butadiene market was boosted by a sharp increase in the raw material market, and the shipment of production enterprises improved somewhat. However, there was some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold. The overall inventory level changed little. Against the background of obvious differences in the negotiation focus, the inventory of individual sample traders decreased slightly during the downstream rigid demand price-pressing procurement follow-up [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,100 - 12,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the futures are at a premium to the spot, and the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has changed from the cost side providing support for the lower valuation to the NR-BR price difference providing support for the lower valuation [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The unilateral trend has changed from being relatively strong in the previous period to high-level oscillations; the upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (moving dynamically following the spot trend of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross-variety: The price difference between NR-BR is gradually narrowing [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In this cycle (January 2 - 8, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, a unit of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical 2, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and there were no obvious changes in other plants, with a slight increase in weekly output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,300 tons, a slight reduction compared to this cycle. There are no plans to restart plants next week, and the maintenance situation of Hainan Refining & Chemical needs further attention [6] 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain at a high level in the medium term, maintaining a year-on-year high demand for butadiene. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant maintenance, it is expected that the rigid demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene will remain at a high level [6] - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6] - In terms of SBS, the operating rate has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand procurement for butadiene with little change [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - In this cycle (January 1 - 7, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly, and the total sample inventory continued to decline by 4.28% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase of 0.48% compared to last week. Although high-price transactions were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The sample port inventory decreased significantly by 7.61% compared to last week. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the raw material inventory of downstream industries was normally consumed. Although there was some trading inventory, the market expectation was relatively strong in the later period, and it was in an inventory reduction cycle overall [6] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short term, the relatively low absolute price has driven downstream periodic replenishment, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene is still relatively strong in the short term. However, due to the weakening of short-term spot market transactions, it is expected that the upward trend of butadiene will slow down [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].