国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：估值区间内弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：估值区间内弱势运行 供应 • 周期内浙江石化延续停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.92万吨，较上周提升0.11万 吨，环比+3.88%，产能利用率72.53%，环比提升2.72个百分点。周期内浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启。下周期预计茂 名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。（隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低，全钢胎及半钢胎部分样本企业周期内存检修现象，拖拽样本企业产能利用率下行，检修主因为整体订 单不足、出货放缓，另有样本企业设备改造，影响整体产能释放。预计下周期，随着检修企业装置排产逐步恢复，轮胎样本企业产能利用率将呈现恢 复性提升状态。然整体需求提升空间有限， ...

l js 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 「-BR基差 IIII 11200 1200 1000 11000 800 10800 600 10600 400 10400 200 10200 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 7/1 -200 10000 -400 9800 -600 视总 II导起 12号动 01号钓 02号约 -800 ·2024 2025 -===11/11 -===10/17 -1-11/17 -- 11/18 苯-BR基差 BR12-01 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我 ...

转自：新华财经 近日，由湖南石化与上海石化共同投资的上海金山巴陵新材料公司年产25万吨SBC（苯乙烯类热塑性弹 性体）项目全面建成投产，并实现一次开车成功，产品经检测全部合格，标志着中国石化在高端新材料 领域供给能力实现新突破。 2023年4月，海南巴陵化工新材料公司建成投产SBC弹性体装置，其中SBS年产能12万吨，SEBS年产能 5万吨。刚刚建成投产的上海金山巴陵新材料公司产品涵盖三大类SBC弹性体，其中SBS年产能14万 吨，SEBS年产能5万吨，SIS（苯乙烯-异戊二烯-苯乙烯嵌段共聚物）年产能6万吨。 今年以来，湖南石化橡胶部（本部）在实施智慧物流技改的同时，优化各装置生产运行，1至10月SBC 性弹性体系列产品累计产量近27万吨，完成新特产品销量同比增幅19%。海南巴陵新材料公司建成投产 以来，累计产销30余万吨，今年前10个月6条生产线高负荷运行，装置平均负荷率110%，远高于行业平 均开工率，累计生产SBS和SEBS产品15万余吨，同比增长93%，并出口东南亚、欧洲、南美洲、大洋 洲的17个国家和地区，5项技术经济指标排名中国石化同类装置前列，被列为合成橡胶企业标杆。 SBC性弹性体是一种兼具 ...

l js 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突，未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、 行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资 料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 -BR基差 IIII 11400 1200 1000 11200 800 11000 600 10800 400 10600 200 10400 1020 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities report indicates that the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 0.75% in October 2025, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC primary industries, with potassium fertilizer, inorganic salts, and tire industries performing well [1][2] - The overall chemical product prices continued to decline in October 2025, prompting the industry to maintain a "market synchronization" investment rating [1][2] - The investment strategy for November 2025 suggests focusing on polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate, and potassium fertilizer industries [1] Market Review - In October 2025, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 0.75%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.10 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.75 percentage points, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2] - Over the past year, the CITIC Basic Chemical Index has risen by 28.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.00 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 9.31 percentage points, ranking 9th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2] Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In October 2025, among 33 CITIC tertiary sub-industries, 15 rose while 18 fell, with potassium fertilizer, inorganic salts, and tire industries leading with increases of 11.27%, 7.83%, and 6.51% respectively [2] - Conversely, carbon fiber, nylon, and rubber additives saw declines of 10.69%, 6.39%, and 5.87% respectively [2] - Out of 526 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 291 rose and 230 fell, with the top five gainers being Litong Technology, Haike New Source, Huide Technology, Yashichuangneng, and Tianji Shares, with increases of 76.03%, 71.56%, 59.91%, 58.35%, and 56.39% respectively [2] Product Price Tracking - In October 2025, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil down by 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.91% to $65.07 per barrel [3] - Among 321 tracked products, 67 saw price increases, with the top gainers being lithium cobalt oxide, sulfur, sulfuric acid, electrolytic cobalt, and argon, with increases of 35.98%, 23.37%, 18.52%, 17.78%, and 16.81% respectively [3] - A total of 216 products experienced price declines, with the largest decreases seen in refrigerant R22, butadiene, phenol, industrial naphthalene, and SBS, which fell by 46.88%, 16.99%, 15.72%, 14.29%, and 12.97% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the basic chemical industry [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 0.75%, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC first-level industries. The potassium fertilizer, inorganic salt, and tire industries performed well, while chemical product prices continued to decline [2][4]. - The investment strategy for November 2025 suggests focusing on two dimensions, particularly in the polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer sectors [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 0.75% in October 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.10 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.75 percentage points. Over the past year, the index has risen by 28.58%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices by 8.00 and 9.31 percentage points, respectively [8][9]. Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In October 2025, among 33 CITIC third-level sub-industries, 15 saw gains while 18 experienced declines. The potassium fertilizer, inorganic salt, and tire industries led with increases of 11.27%, 7.83%, and 6.51%, respectively. Conversely, carbon fiber, nylon, and rubber additives saw declines of 10.69%, 6.39%, and 5.87% [9][12]. - Out of 526 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 291 rose while 230 fell. The top gainers included Litong Technology, Haike New Source, and Huide Technology, with increases of 76.03%, 71.56%, and 59.91%, respectively. The largest declines were seen in Aggregated Materials, Blue Feng Biochemical, and United Chemical, with decreases of 27.32%, 24.90%, and 24.71% [9][13]. Product Price Tracking - In October 2025, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil down 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.91% to $65.07 per barrel. Among 321 tracked products, 67 saw price increases, while 216 experienced declines, indicating an overall downward trend in basic chemical product prices [4][12]. Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the "Synchronize with the market" investment rating. With the ongoing deepening of anti-involution measures in the chemical industry, overall supply and demand are expected to improve, leading to further quality upgrades in the industry. The investment strategy for November 2025 emphasizes focusing on polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer sectors [4][6].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡承压 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：震荡承压 | 供应 | • | 周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置延续停车检修，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率恢复性提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.80 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 万吨，较上周提升0.16万吨，环比+5.92%，产能利用率69.92%，环比提升3.90个百分点。下周期预计振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启，同时11月末茂名顺 | | | | 丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计有所缓解。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率涨跌互现。周期内半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率基本平稳，全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低。周期内多 | | 需求 | | 数 ...

l js 数据来源: Mysteel、Wind 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突，未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、 行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资 料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/12 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 10/10 | 11/5 | 11/7 | 11/10 | 11/11 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on lithium hexafluorophosphate and phosphorus chemical sectors due to their positive outlook [1][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw a 3.54% increase in the first week of November, underperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 2.45 percentage points [2][11]. - Key stocks that performed well include Qing Shui Yuan (+47.78%), Fo Si Technology (+33.38%), and Chengxing Co. (+24.63%) [2][11]. - The report highlights the benefits of rising prices in lithium hexafluorophosphate for companies like Duofu and Shenzhen New Star, and the high demand in the phosphorus chemical sector for Yuntianhua [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 25 sub-sectors increase in value, with the top five being phosphate fertilizers (+18.15%), phosphorus chemicals and phosphates (+13.61%), and inorganic salts (+12.12%) [3][15]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 22.57 times, significantly higher than the average PE of 11.23 times since 2015 [2][11]. Price and Margin Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include folic acid (+20%), nitric acid (+10.43%), and sulfur (+9.95%) [4][18]. - The report also notes significant price drops for liquid chlorine (-34%) and butadiene (-7.69%) [4][18]. - The price margin for sodium tripolyphosphate increased by 27.63%, while the margin for propylene (methanol-based) saw a drastic decrease of 826% [4][38]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament showing a decrease of 26.81% and epoxy propane increasing by 8.53% [5][60]. Recommendations - The report maintains a recommendation for companies benefiting from the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and those in the phosphorus chemical sector [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Release Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Information - On November 7, the closing price of the BR main contract (12) was 10,190, down 115 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest was 85,686, an increase of 1,745 from the previous day and 47,890 from the previous week [4]. - The trading volume was 106,318, a decrease of 21,826 from the previous day and 43,532 from the previous week [4]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 12,300, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 3,720 from the previous week [4]. - The virtual - real ratio was 34.83, an increase of 1 from the previous day and 13 from the previous week [4]. Basis and Spread Information - The butadiene rubber basis was 110, an increase of 115 from the previous day and a decrease of 30 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene basis was 560, an increase of 165 from the previous day and a decrease of 180 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between contracts 12 - 01 was 65, a decrease of 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The spread between contracts 01 - 02 was 0, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 5 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between RU - BR was 4,805, an increase of 65 from the previous day and 70 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between NR - BR was 1,845, an increase of 20 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market Information - The Shandong market price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 200 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,200, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 150 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,200, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 300 from the previous week [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. Profit Information - The spot processing profit was 960, an increase of 51 from the previous day and a decrease of 1 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit was - 1,877, an increase of 7 from the previous day and a decrease of 210 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was 2,499, a decrease of 7 from the previous day and an increase of 184 from the previous week [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Market Information - The Shandong market price was 7,000, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and 195 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 6,900, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 6,900, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - CFR China was 800, a decrease of 10 from the previous day [4]. Profit Information - The ethylene cracking profit was N/A [4]. - The import profit was 311, an increase of 84 from the previous day and 579 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was - 811, a decrease of 217 from the previous day and 1,336 from the previous week [4]. - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,175, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 63 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit was N/A [4]. - The SBS production profit was 1, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 90 from the previous week [4]. - The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A [4]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,774, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 398 from the previous week [4].