l js 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/3/30 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 3/3 | 3/20 | 3/24 | 3/25 | 3/26 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13530 | 15985 | 16800 | 17720 | 17975 | 255 | 1990 | | | | 持仓量 | 35513 | 81121 | 74665 | 115005 | 116947 | 1942 | 35826 | | | | 成交量 | 285417 | 370451 | 597751 | 890104 | 1081955 | 191851 | 711504 | | | | 仓単数量 | 41140 | 47280 | 47850 | 47910 | 48550 | 640 | 1270 | | | | 虚实比 | 4.32 | 8.58 | 7.80 | 12.00 | 12.04 | 0 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | -4 ...

01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：成本抬升，偏强运行 • 周期内顺丁橡胶生产仍面临高成本压力及显著亏损局面，且个别生产企业存在原料供应偏紧及执行常规检修计划等因素影响，东北、山东、浙江及广东 存在较多装置负荷下降，亦有个别装置执行常规检修计划。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.63万吨，较上周期减少0.50万吨，环比-16.04%，产能利用率 65.58%，环比-12.53个百分点。。下周期来看，除浩普新材料顺丁橡胶装置预计将执行其常规检修计划外，山东地区部分民营顺丁橡胶装置近期或存在负 荷进一步下降甚至停车检修预期，需谨慎关注国内顺丁橡胶装置运行情况。（隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，预计下周期样本企业产能利用率仍将维持当前水平，整体波动不大。进入季度末，部分企业为完成季度任务，开工率仍将维持高位；叠加涨 价前订单尚未补齐，短期开工积极性偏高，不排除个别企业灵活调整排产可能。 （隆众资讯） • 替代需求方面，目前NR-BR主力合约价差快速走缩，目前合成橡胶已经高于20号胶的主力合约价格，预计合成橡胶替代需求快速减弱。 • 截至2026年3月18日，国内顺丁橡胶样本企业库存量在4.26万吨，较 ...

jis 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/3/5 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 2/3 | 2/25 | 3/2 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13185 | 13045 | 13465 | 13530 | 13825 | ટકર | 780 | | | | 持仓量 | 37321 | 10540 | 39382 | 35513 | 32970 | -2543 | 22430 | | | 播 11 | 成交量 | 278095 | 98487 | 286143 | 285417 | 276462 | -8952 | 177975 | | | | 仓単数量 | 27890 | 39870 | 40870 | 41140 | 41240 | 100 | 1370 | | | | 虚实比 | 6.69 | 1.32 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 0 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | -382 | -2 ...

Summary of Waterproof Materials Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The waterproof materials industry plans to communicate price increases to customers between March 1 and March 15, targeting a range of 5%-10% but realistically expecting actual increases to be within 5% due to market conditions [1][2] - Historical data indicates that price increase expectations are common at the beginning or end of the year, with a price increase window from mid-March to mid-June, followed by price stabilization in the second half of the year [1] - The demand structure has shifted, with the real estate sector's share dropping from 70% to around 40%, while public construction projects have increased to approximately 70% [2][11] Key Points on Price Increase Strategy - Companies typically manage pricing based on customer size, cooperation duration, and payment performance, with tiered pricing for A-level customers [1][4] - Raw material price increases are driving companies to raise prices, but there is a lag in cost transmission due to existing inventory [4] - Leading companies like Oriental Yuhong, Keshun, and Beixin focus on raising prices for their main products to directly enhance profitability and sales [1][6] - The competitive landscape among leading firms is intense, with a tendency towards coordinated price increases, although risks of price competition remain [7] Customer Acceptance and Pricing Execution - Customers, especially long-term partners, are generally resistant to price increases, while new entrants may be more accepting [4] - Price increases may apply to new orders primarily, with existing contracts subject to negotiation [3][4] - If price increases are successfully implemented, profit margins could significantly improve, especially if companies are still consuming lower-cost inventory [5] Demand and Market Dynamics - The overall demand is expected to stabilize, with no significant declines anticipated, as the market is nearing the bottom [10][12] - Non-real estate sectors such as infrastructure and industrial projects are expected to provide new demand [12] - The industry is likely to evolve towards a "3+N" structure, with three leading firms and several regional or cross-category players [13] Competitive Landscape and Company Strategies - The survival of small enterprises is under pressure, with an estimated 50%-60% facing potential exit from the market due to intensified competition and financial strain [13][14] - Leading firms are focusing on maintaining stable operations rather than aggressive market share expansion, with a shift in focus towards profitability and cash flow [15] - Beixin's acquisition strategy has slowed, facing challenges in integration due to its approach of holding rather than fully acquiring companies [16] Conclusion - The waterproof materials industry is navigating a complex landscape of price adjustments, shifting demand structures, and competitive pressures. The focus is on maintaining profitability while managing customer relationships and market dynamics. The anticipated stabilization in demand and the evolving competitive structure will shape the industry's future trajectory.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to a significant valuation premium for energy - chemical commodities. Although the synthetic rubber industry chain has obvious inventory pressure, the price of butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, with increased volatility in intraday trading [2][3][4]. - The butadiene market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and rebound, with a balanced domestic butadiene fundamentals. Asian and European butadiene prices remain resilient, and there is support in the medium - term [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene 3.1.1 Supply - In the current cycle (20260220 - 0226), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 121,500 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous cycle. Next week, the estimated weekly output is about 119,800 tons, a slight decrease due to the planned maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical's device [5]. - Butadiene capacity is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber. The expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages. From 2024 to 2026, many enterprises have new capacity put into production, and some enterprises also have capacity withdrawals [14][16]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a high level year - on - year. In the short - term, as the maintenance of butadiene rubber devices decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [5]. - In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level with little change [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - From 20260212 - 0225, the domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total sample inventory increased by 3.77% compared with the pre - holiday cycle. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.28%, and the sample port inventory increased by 4.92%. On February 25, the latest inventory at East China ports was about 38,400 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from before the holiday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (Butadiene Rubber) 3.2.1 Supply - Most butadiene rubber devices maintained high - load operation this week, with only the load of a few devices in Shandong slightly decreasing. Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Chuanhua's butadiene rubber devices are expected to undergo maintenance in March. The mainstream butadiene rubber devices are expected to have no major changes next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to only slightly decline [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous cycle. After the Spring Festival, many tire enterprises resumed work one after another, and the production scheduling is in a stage of gradual increase, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts has expanded rapidly, and the substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to gradually increase [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of February 25, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68%. Due to the inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival, the extended Spring Festival holiday, and the increase in production volume compared with 2025, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased significantly, and the inventory level continued to rise [4]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors have increased speculation, and the upward valuation pressure has significantly decreased. The price difference between NR - BR provides support for the valuation. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. 3.2.5 Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but be cautious when chasing high prices. The upper pressure is 14,000 - 14,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [4]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread may shrink in the short - term [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: February 27, 2026 [3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On February 26, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,700, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly increase of 195 compared to January 28 [4]. - The open interest was 6,943, a daily decrease of 3,597 and a weekly decrease of 8,047 [4]. - The trading volume was 52,119, a daily decrease of 46,368 and a weekly decrease of 100,054 [4]. - The warrant quantity was 39,870, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 560 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -100, with a daily increase of 145 and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 300, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was 310, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 365 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -70, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4425, a daily increase of 230 and a weekly increase of 615 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1155, a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 480 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 12,600, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 12,550, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,700, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,850, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Profitability - The spot processing profit was -106, a daily increase of 106 and a weekly increase of 405 [4]. - The import profit was -1034, a daily decrease of 116 and a weekly increase of 283 [4]. - The export profit was 1066, a daily increase of 98 and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,300, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 10,150, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,200, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - The CFR China price was 1275, with no daily change and the weekly comparison was N/A [4]. Profitability - The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, and previous data showed a range from -21 to -34 [4]. - The C4 extraction profit was N/A, and previous data showed a range from 3154 to 3604 [4]. - The import profit was 143, a daily decrease of 88, and the weekly comparison was N/A [4]. - The export profit was -771, a daily increase of 79 and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. Production Profit - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1163, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 250 [4]. - The ABS production profit was -308, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 139 [4]. - The SBS production profit was -701, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 240 [4].

Core Insights - 74Software reported a strong financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025, with total revenue reaching €707.2 million, reflecting a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year, and an organic growth of 3.8% [2][8] - The company achieved significant margin expansion, with operating profit increasing to €73.3 million, representing a margin of 10.4%, up from 8.2% in 2024 [20][21] - Net profit rose to €40.8 million, a 40.7% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share reaching €1.39, up from €0.99 [23][25] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 was €707.2 million, with a gross profit of €476.1 million, resulting in a gross margin of 67.3%, compared to 65.0% in 2024 [2][21] - Profit on operating activities was €107.3 million, reflecting a margin of 15.2%, an increase from 13.6% in the previous year [20][21] - Unlevered free cash flow reached an all-time high of €80.4 million, representing 11.4% of revenue, compared to €26.3 million in 2024 [28][51] Business Segments - Axway contributed €337.9 million in revenue with an organic growth of 4.6%, while SBS generated €371.2 million with a 3.0% organic growth [8][12] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Axway grew by 11.8% to €273.0 million, while SBS's ARR increased by 8.9% to €243.8 million, indicating a strengthening of the subscription model [16][18] Strategic Initiatives - The integration of SBS is progressing as planned, with measurable profitability gains expected [3][5] - The company aims for organic revenue growth of 3%–5% per year over the next three years, targeting revenue close to €800 million by the end of 2028 [5][34] - 74Software is focusing on AI-driven transformation, embedding AI capabilities into production workflows to enhance operational efficiency and compliance in regulated environments [19][34] Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a rigorous capital allocation framework and improved operational discipline, leading to enhanced visibility and cash generation [3][5] - Operating cash flow improved significantly to €110.9 million, up from €31.7 million in 2024, reflecting optimized net working capital management [26][28] - The workforce was reduced by 4.5% to 4,571 full-time equivalents, aligning with the focus on operational efficiency [31]

7200 ono 500 2000 400 1500 300 IN 1000 200 500 100 0 -100 8/1 7/1 10/1 \ 111 12/1-h 5/1 9/1 -500 -200 -1000 -300 -1500 -400 2023 -2025 -2023 -2024 2024 - 2025 -2026 2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 9/1/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -2021 -2022 2025 =2023 -2024 ·2026 -2021 -2022 -2023 2024 ·2026 2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 An 0 2000 7/1 9/1 5/1 10/1 3/1 4/1 8/1 12/1 6/1 a ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 12% year-over-year, reaching $1.6 billion, driven by a 14% increase in shipments from the Augusta Mill [4][18] - Adjusted EBITDA improved to $107 million, an increase of $71 million compared to the previous year, attributed to strong cost control and execution [4][18] - SG&A expenses decreased to 6.5% of net sales from 8.4% in 2024, reflecting improved cost discipline [5][18] - Net income from continuing operations for Q4 was $3 million or $0.20 per diluted share, while the full year net loss was $53 million or $3.28 per diluted share [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully integrated the Augusta Mill and separated its tissue business ahead of schedule, contributing to overall performance [4] - Major maintenance outage spending was $50 million, significantly lower than the previous year due to improved planning and execution [5][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industry shipments of SBS were largely flat year-over-year, with a competitor adding over 500,000 tons of new capacity, leading to decreased operating rates and margin pressure [8][12] - RISI reported a $100 per ton decrease in the SBS folding carton index, although the company experienced a smaller decline of $21 per ton [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining financial flexibility and optimizing capital allocation, including refinancing options for its 2020 notes [6] - A new lightweight paperboard product line, Viora, is set to launch in Q2, aimed at competing with FBB [14] - The company is evaluating external options to add CRB to its portfolio to diversify market exposure [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the paperboard industry is facing challenging supply and demand dynamics, particularly in SBS, with expectations for demand recovery in 2026 [7][12] - The company anticipates a pricing headwind of approximately $70 million in 2026 due to carryover from 2025 [10][20] - Management expressed confidence in returning to cross-cycle EBITDA margins of 13%-14% and generating over $100 million in annual free cash flow in the future [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $17 million worth of shares during the year, with $79 million remaining under its authorization [5] - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with over $400 million in liquidity at year-end [5][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on grade switching from CRB to SBS - Management acknowledged that customers are exploring grade switching due to cost pressures, but noted that it is still in early stages [29] Question: Confidence in demand improvement - Management highlighted positive signs from CPG and QSR companies regarding growth and foot traffic, despite previous shipment challenges [31] Question: Plans for extended curtailments - Management indicated that no concrete decisions have been made regarding extended curtailments, but they are evaluating options [34] Question: Liquidity and buyback strategy - Management emphasized prioritizing investments in assets and maintaining a strong balance sheet before considering share repurchases [41] Question: Input cost risks - Management stated that they do not foresee risks related to fiber costs and expect to offset inflation through productivity improvements [45][46] Question: Working capital improvements - Management indicated that the $20 million working capital improvement will be heavily weighted towards the back half of the year [48]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]